Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

[sleepy5136]

for me it is always about the loan balance that I feel comfortable. Then make up the rest with down payment. of course having the means to do all cash means I can pick whatever loan amount I want. In hindsight we probably should?ve borrowed more when the rate is sub 3%.

Most buyers are cash so I doubt interest rate will affect the
Irvine market much

I wouldn't say most, but about 1/3 of all Irvine sales are all cash.

I feel if one puts 35%+ down on a home it?s almost like cash despite it not being fully cash. A lot of Irvine buyers put a lot down so interest rates really aren?t going to impact them

I would borrow max possible at sub 3%, which I did for my Bluffs 2 at 20% down payment.

FCB can't. They don't have documented income in the US to qualify for max borrowing. So they have to do these 35-40%+ down payments to get a loan with adjustable rates.

 

[CalBears96]

for me it is always about the loan balance that I feel comfortable. Then make up the rest with down payment. of course having the means to do all cash means I can pick whatever loan amount I want. In hindsight we probably should?ve borrowed more when the rate is sub 3%.

Most buyers are cash so I doubt interest rate will affect the
Irvine market much

I wouldn't say most, but about 1/3 of all Irvine sales are all cash.

I feel if one puts 35%+ down on a home it?s almost like cash despite it not being fully cash. A lot of Irvine buyers put a lot down so interest rates really aren?t going to impact them

I would borrow max possible at sub 3%, which I did for my Bluffs 2 at 20% down payment.

FCB can't. They don't have documented income in the US to qualify for max borrowing. So they have to do these 35-40%+ down payments to get a loan with adjustable rates.

I was just comparing my philosophy to CCC's on the loan amount.

 

[The Motor Court Company]

FCB still can leverage, just need to find the specialized bank or other creative ways.
or there is a different way of doing FCB:
One family friend did this; they have foreign real estate which they took out a HELOC equivalent at sub 2% rate in that country (while US mortgage rate was 5% pre COVID) so they could buy US real estate in cash; banking on the interest rate spread is better than foreign transaction fees.
It works out beautifully since the dollar has been on a roll.

for me it is always about the loan balance that I feel comfortable. Then make up the rest with down payment. of course having the means to do all cash means I can pick whatever loan amount I want. In hindsight we probably should?ve borrowed more when the rate is sub 3%.

Most buyers are cash so I doubt interest rate will affect the
Irvine market much

I wouldn't say most, but about 1/3 of all Irvine sales are all cash.

I feel if one puts 35%+ down on a home it?s almost like cash despite it not being fully cash. A lot of Irvine buyers put a lot down so interest rates really aren?t going to impact them

I would borrow max possible at sub 3%, which I did for my Bluffs 2 at 20% down payment.

FCB can't. They don't have documented income in the US to qualify for max borrowing. So they have to do these 35-40%+ down payments to get a loan with adjustable rates.

 

[Innosint]

FCB still can leverage, just need to find the specialized bank or other creative ways.
or there is a different way of doing FCB:
One family friend did this; they have foreign real estate which they took out a HELOC equivalent at sub 2% rate in that country (while US mortgage rate was 5% pre COVID) so they could buy US real estate in cash; banking on the interest rate spread is better than foreign transaction fees.
It works out beautifully since the dollar has been on a roll.

for me it is always about the loan balance that I feel comfortable. Then make up the rest with down payment. of course having the means to do all cash means I can pick whatever loan amount I want. In hindsight we probably should?ve borrowed more when the rate is sub 3%.

Most buyers are cash so I doubt interest rate will affect the
Irvine market much

I wouldn't say most, but about 1/3 of all Irvine sales are all cash.

I feel if one puts 35%+ down on a home it?s almost like cash despite it not being fully cash. A lot of Irvine buyers put a lot down so interest rates really aren?t going to impact them

I would borrow max possible at sub 3%, which I did for my Bluffs 2 at 20% down payment.

FCB can't. They don't have documented income in the US to qualify for max borrowing. So they have to do these 35-40%+ down payments to get a loan with adjustable rates.

yup, my mother was playing with that idea regarding to getting more down payments. Ending up not able to due to someone in her family took out way more than their shares on the joint estate, but it's certainly an option available to many foreign buyers.

 

[AW]

for me it is always about the loan balance that I feel comfortable. Then make up the rest with down payment. of course having the means to do all cash means I can pick whatever loan amount I want. In hindsight we probably should?ve borrowed more when the rate is sub 3%.

Most buyers are cash so I doubt interest rate will affect the
Irvine market much

I wouldn't say most, but about 1/3 of all Irvine sales are all cash.

I feel if one puts 35%+ down on a home it?s almost like cash despite it not being fully cash. A lot of Irvine buyers put a lot down so interest rates really aren?t going to impact them

I would borrow max possible at sub 3%, which I did for my Bluffs 2 at 20% down payment.

FCB can't. They don't have documented income in the US to qualify for max borrowing. So they have to do these 35-40%+ down payments to get a loan with adjustable rates.

iirc, during the lowest of the low rate periods many months ago, there may be a limited window of only 20% needed, but could've sworn the ltv they were looking for, was more like 30-40% down needed...

 

[Liar Loan]

LL has 2,677 posts on TI and is a ?Certified Irvine Addict?.  Pretty creepy for a person who doesn?t live or do business here?kinda makes you wonder ?why do you care so much??

I?m at post #1,338 for TalkLaunaNigel.com taking about how terrible that city is so I guess I shouldn?t judge

You've tried this line of attack before, and it's fallen flat both times.  Maybe go back to accusing me of being a Boomer?

 

[TestingIrvine]

LL has 2,677 posts on TI and is a ?Certified Irvine Addict?.  Pretty creepy for a person who doesn?t live or do business here?kinda makes you wonder ?why do you care so much??

I?m at post #1,338 for TalkLaunaNigel.com taking about how terrible that city is so I guess I shouldn?t judge

You've tried this line of attack before, and it's fallen flat both times.  Maybe go back to accusing me of being a Boomer?

It?s not a line of attack if I?m stating facts. You?re on post 2,681?get a life.

Then again I?m on post #2,046 on trashing resident?s home purchases on TalkRanchoCucamonga.com because that?s what normal people with a life do.

 

[Liar Loan]

Realtors Forecast California’s Home Prices Will Drop 8.8% in 2023​

The California median home price is forecast to drop 8.8% to $758,600 in 2023, following a projected 5.7% increase to $831,460 in 2022 from $786,700 last year.

Realtors Forecast California's Home Prices Will Drop 8.8% in 2023

Expect a weaker housing market in California in 2023 as an ongoing battle against inflation creates a small recession -- keeping interest rates elevated and suppressing buyer demand, according to a forecast released Wednesday by the California Association of Realtors.

timesofsandiego.com

 

[DrTravel]

Probably counterintuitive, but Realtors have a horrible track record at predicting the direction yet alone the magnitude of any future price trends. Every once in awhile they get it right but they do have an ulterior motive. Does that sound like any forum posters anyone can think about?

 

[Liar Loan]

Probably counterintuitive, but Realtors have a horrible track record at predicting the direction yet alone the magnitude of any future price trends. Every once in awhile they get it right but they do have an ulterior motive. Does that sound like any forum posters anyone can think about?

I think if CAR is predicting an 8.8% drop then it will likely be even worse. They are not known for their gloomy forecasts, which is what makes this prediction so notable. There are plenty of people on this forum that have been sugarcoating the bad news all year, but I don't think most of them have ulterior motives. They just don't want to see their home prices go down, especially the recent buyers.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I think everyone knows the drop was imminent... the pertinent questions are how far and how long.

 

[OCtoSV]

I think everyone knows the drop was imminent... the pertinent questions are how far and how long.

First, rates are definitely moving higher as the Fed works on the long end of the yield curve. 9% is in the bag as they need to see shelter costs deflate. And even with current rates who is locking in right now for a purchase? Seems like an awesome time to shop if you're a cash buyer but I would think transactions are waaay down, which makes me wonder what the actual months of inventory number fo Irvine is at this time.

 

[zovall]

I think if CAR is predicting an 8.8% drop then it will likely be even worse. They are not known for their gloomy forecasts, which is what makes this prediction so notable.

It will interesting to see what the actual drop will be in California overall but also in different cities/housing types.

 

[Liar Loan]

Jeremy Siegel warns home prices are about to suffer their 2nd-worst crash since World War II amid Fed rate hikes​

He said last week that home prices will decline by as much as 15% as Fed rate hikes send mortgage rates higher. The 30-year fixed rate is now back above 7% by some measures, hitting the highest levels since 2007.

 

[OCtoSV]

The vast majprity of the respondents to this poll are already wrong (flat or down 5/10%). Talk about herd mentality!

 

[ThirtySomethingWEquity]

Jeremy Siegel warns home prices are about to suffer their 2nd-worst crash since World War II amid Fed rate hikes​

He said last week that home prices will decline by as much as 15% as Fed rate hikes send mortgage rates higher. The 30-year fixed rate is now back above 7% by some measures, hitting the highest levels since 2007.

I think some people, in their head, are thinking this might mean down 15% from early 2021 prices. They're not remembering just how absolutely bonkers it got for a brief moment in early 2022. 15% from that insane peak isn't outrageous.

 

[CalBears96]

I think some people, in their head, are thinking this might mean down 15% from early 2021 prices. They're not remembering just how absolutely bonkers it got for a brief moment in early 2022. 15% from that insane peak isn't outrageous.

Housing price went up more than 30% from Sept 2021 to April/May 2022. I bought in Dec 2021 and even from that point it went up 20% compared to April/May 2022.

 

[Liar Loan]

Siegel is making a nationwide prediction and it would only be the second time since WW2 that nationwide home prices have declined (the last time being in '08). California has been a boom/bust market since WW2 and has had many downturns, so his prediction of a 15% decline nationwide could actually be much worse for us.

Remember, six months ago these "professionals" were mostly predicting flat home prices, so they are still catching up to reality.

 

[Mety]

I don't think anyone should really be happy about the crashing market. It's not just about the homes getting cheaper.

 

[ThirtySomethingWEquity]

Siegel is making a nationwide prediction and it would only be the second time since WW2 that nationwide home prices have declined (the last time being in '08). California has been a boom/bust market since WW2 and has had many downturns, so his prediction of a 15% decline nationwide could actually be much worse for us.

Remember, six months ago these "professionals" were mostly predicting flat home prices, so they are still catching up to reality.

yeah. but who cares. If house prices go down 25% from the peak... that barely affects anyone. What % of homeowners actually bought between late 2021 and early 2022? 5% or less?