PermaBears from the IHB: Where is the 40% drop?

I just remembered that back in FEB of 2012, Calculated Risk Blog said this was the housing bottom.  This also influenced me to buy...ever so slightly.  So far his call is accurate.
 
I wouldn't think so.

Although, technically, even in Irvine and the more expensive areas like CDM, 30-40% off peak was feasible and deals were done at the rate in 2011.  It was just like the 90s bottom though, pristine stuff still got a premium but the stuff selling 30%, 40% or 50% off had the life beat out of it at that point.
 
zubs said:
I just remembered that back in FEB of 2012, Calculated Risk Blog said this was the housing bottom.  This also influenced me to buy...ever so slightly.  So far his call is accurate.
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What was their justification of calling a bottom in housing in Feb of 2012?
 
zubs said:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/housing-bottom-is-here.html

A lot of people disagreed with his view at the time.  You can see it in the comments.  In the econ blogosphere, this was big news.
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I think I mentioned in a few threads that we had a double bottom here locally in real estate...late 2009/early 2010 and then late 2011/early 2012.  I agree with him that decreasing inventory levels and programs like HARP helped out. 
 
USC also bought a house during this time...or was it 2011?  Anyway with him buying a house, I didn't want him to feel too lonely so I doubled my property hunt. 
 
when realtors are buying houses as primary residence themselves, it is the bottom

zubs said:
USC also bought a house during this time...or was it 2011?  Anyway with him buying a house, I didn't want him to feel too lonely so I doubled my property hunt.
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irvinehomeowner said:
I know a realtor who still rents. Or should I say "renter". :)
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If it is who I think it is, he has been a homeowner for at least a couple years now.
 
zubs said:
USC also bought a house during this time...or was it 2011?  Anyway with him buying a house, I didn't want him to feel too lonely so I doubled my property hunt.
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I bought right at the end of 2011.  I didn't know that my purchase was going to be used as a bottom indicator... :D  I started the house hunting in the summer of 2011 after I saw prices coming off the sugar rush of tax credits.  If I wouldn't have bought the short sale in West Irvine, then I would have bought a new Las Ventanas Plan 2 home in Portola in 2012 as I was near the top of the wait list.
 
Irvinerenter bought a house?  I did not know that.  I quit reading his writing awhile back.  Reading 1,000 word essays everyday by the same author is repetitious.
 
The California Court Company said:
I did say primary residences. a lot of realtors who bought in the crazy days were in it for investing, trying to ride the wave
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these were their primary residences....  just saying not all realtors know how to spot a bubble, just cause they push the smack doesn't mean they don't consume it too.
 
If IR did buy a house in Irvine, maybe that's why he couldn't do the IHB anymore because he couldn't fault people for buying in Irvine since he drank the Kool-Aid himself.

Seeing all these closes over ridiculous listing prices is actually kind of scary because many of these are full cash or large cash downs so it's not a ninja financing bubble.
 
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