PermaBears from the IHB: Where is the 40% drop?

[irvinehomeowner]

Granted that most of them aren't here anymore and maybe because they don't want to explain why but is that 40% drop still coming?

I must confess that I am a converted bear... but I always thought 40% was extreme, especially for newer SFR products in Irvine (and because someone never provided me data that new SFRs in Irvine during the last bubble dropped as much as other homes). I figured 20% was a more conservative number considering I believed in the intrinsic (and often non-fundamental) values of Irvine real estate.

Yet here we are, about halfway between the cycle (if you consider 05/06 the peak and a historical 7 year cycle length) with record unemployment and much stricter lending guidelines yet we haven't even got to halfway point of 40% drops. In fact, the Irvine Company is selling new homes at about what many homes were priced at during the peak and raising them every phase.

Now again, this may differ depending on the type of product you are looking at (some starter condos have dropped enormously and many ultra-high end homes have taken over 50% hits in value), but let's get real, most of us are not looking at those type of homes. For me personally, we were looking at the 4or5/3 SFR with a 3-car garage. During the peak, newer homes in this category were going for about $850k+. So I do a Redfin search and guess what I find? Yep.. $850k and up... and the lowest price 5br one is $925k.

Sure, they can claim gov interference and bank shenanigans but if I recall correctly, they had said that nothing would be able to prevent these drops... not the fed, not the banks... not even the FCBs. And while there are record levels of foreclosure/distressed/shadow inventory just waiting to wreak havoc on California... how much of that will actually affect Irvine pricing?

C'mon bears... where's the snark?

Disclaimer: While I do think there will continue to be price drops (and hope there will be) and that the bottom is probably sometime after 2012 (when the world ends)... I don't think that it will be as much as I once thought (hoped) it would be.  And even if interest rates go up, I don't think that it will exert enough downward pressure to see prices fall to the point of 40% off... especially with Irvine new home building keeping benchmarks high. Realistically, if we are not even at 20% off (in the range I am looking at) near the halfway point, it's a far stretch we'll get to 40% by the bottom... but it would be nice.

 

[t2]

....... much stricter lending guidelines

Stricter but I don't know about "much". It look like they are getting looser by the day. Example - FNMA reducing wait period to 2 yrs for buyers with a big hit / foreclosure on their record. The bar has been lowered all around and I think.......... permanently or at least for a long time. In conclusion my perspective has also changed .

 

[qwerty]

IHO - i can appreciate you persistence in wanting to know why Irvine is not playing out the way many people thought it would (me included), but i dont think you will get a satisfactory answer, at this point as it is really all speculation, outside of the basic supply (or lack there of)/demand argument.  You already know everyone's answers.  As you stated the cycles appear to be 7 years long so it looks like after 2012/2013 we will hopefully see how it plays out.  I think someone in the last week on IHB said that as much as every one always says "this time it is different" it never ends up being different and that is where we need to let it play out. Right now it does appear as if it will be different and prices will stay high, but until 2012/2013 comes and goes i dont think we will know.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

If a satisfactory answer can't be supplied, I do think there should be an explanation of why by those who were very adamant about it. During the height of the bubble, many buyers (and realtors) were berated (yes... berated) by the permabears on how prices were going to drop hard and heavy... and now that they are not... where is that vocal group?

I should temper this as specific to Irvine (although surrounding cities such as Tustin Ranch have also retained prices well) but the conclusion was always that Irvine was NOT different (and usually by people who did not live in Irvine and did not care to... so that perspective was a bit skewed).

Based on current pricing for the product I'm looking for, it means that there has to be a 40% (20% if you are an Irvinite) drop in the next 3 years and I as much as I wish... I'm not sure that's going to happen. At least if you look at historical graphs (pun intended!) you see a measurable (and almost predictable) drop even during the 1993 bump. But the difference is that the 1993 prices were lower than the 89/90 peak prices... in this case... (at least what I'm looking at) they are the same... if not higher than the 05/06 peak. Now maybe that's the low interest rate thing but you would think that unemployment would counter that (I guess you don't need to work to live in Irvine).

And while this may seem repetitive on my part... I think it should be. For every day I read all the schadenfreude on the IHB and how every hater on Irvine criticized our stucco boxes, 3-car garages, pocket parks and salmon colored homes (well... I don't like pink either)... I think it's time to start recognizing the FCBs like TIC does (and actually IrvineRenter mentioned something about that in one of his posts about why Irvine pricing is so stubborn right now).

Do I like this Irvine price drop resistance? No... I put more on the line than most in hopes of a drop and now that it looks like my "short" won't pan out as much as I wanted (but there were other benefits) it would be nice for the outspoken ones to come back and continue the dialog that they started.

Plus... everyone knows venting anonymously on the Internet is cathartic.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Btw, what happened to all the doomsday predictions of 6-8% interest rates?  I'll go on record and say that 30-year mortgage rates will basically remain within 4.75% to 5.25% for the rest of 2010.  There is way too much slack in the economy and too many economic/global/political time bombs that have and/or will go off to keep rates down.  I thought that when the Fed stopped it's buying of MBS and long-term bonds rates would spike at least .50-.75%...not so much, huh?  Last time I checked, interest rates were down about 1/8-1/4% from Feb/March.

 

[qwerty]

Btw, what happened to all the doomsday predictions of 6-8% interest rates?  I'll go on record and say that 30-year mortgage rates will basically remain within 4.75% to 5.25% for the rest of 2010.  There is way too much slack in the economy and too many economic/global/political time bombs that have and/or will go off to keep rates down.  I thought that when the Fed stopped it's buying of MBS and long-term bonds rates would spike at least .50-.75%...not so much, huh?  Last time I checked, interest rates were down about 1/8-1/4% from Feb/March.

Who knows when rates will go up, i thought they would go up a bit after the Fed stopped buying MBS and they did not.  My guess is that these low rates will spark some sort of bubble (stock market maybe?) and then when it burst they will have to keep rates low to help alleviate that bubble deflating, then it will just stay in that cycle. Maybe we will have low rates for 20 years like Japan? Although i would think inflation would take hold at some time but maybe not (especially the way they currently calculate it).

 

[usctrojancpa]

Btw, what happened to all the doomsday predictions of 6-8% interest rates?  I'll go on record and say that 30-year mortgage rates will basically remain within 4.75% to 5.25% for the rest of 2010.  There is way too much slack in the economy and too many economic/global/political time bombs that have and/or will go off to keep rates down.  I thought that when the Fed stopped it's buying of MBS and long-term bonds rates would spike at least .50-.75%...not so much, huh?  Last time I checked, interest rates were down about 1/8-1/4% from Feb/March.

Who knows when rates will go up, i thought they would go up a bit after the Fed stopped buying MBS and they did not.  My guess is that these low rates will spark some sort of bubble (stock market maybe?) and then when it burst they will have to keep rates low to help alleviate that bubble deflating, then it will just stay in that cycle. Maybe we will have low rates for 20 years like Japan? Although i would think inflation would take hold at some time but maybe not (especially the way they currently calculate it).

Yup, that is why I'm not even about to go out on a limb and make a prediction about where interest rates might be past this year (if I knew I could be a rich man by trading the TBT etf).  I'm really torn whether we'll have higher than normal inflation down the line due to the easy money policy of the Fed or if we'll be like Japan 2.0.  I lean towards the former because the gov't seems to have the same gameplan that the Japanese did when they went through their real estate bubble.  The reality is until the unemployment rate decreases by a significant amount from current levels, I just can't see how inflation can get out of control (not including oil related products as the price is driven by speculators, momentum players, and geo-political risks).  The way they actually calculate inflation is garbage.

 

[fe9000]

IHO,
Just like you said, the perma bears aren't here anymore.  It's a shame.  IHB is still talking about dooms day is coming.  And I also hear that at work, the market head wind is still on the way.  I bought a home but I am too a bear about this market.  I will not be shocked if pricing fall when inventory goes higher.  I honestly think this wave of new home buying is a collective of things happening at the same time, Low rates, cash buyers, short sales frustration, gov intervention etc, I simply don't look at buying a primary home like an investment.  If I can afford the payment and we have a lot of skin the game.  We are in it for the long haul.  If we were looking at a place where it could be turn into a rental property, Irvine is not the place.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

And that's why I've started posting comments at the IHB recently.

I need some explanation as to why they think Irvine is still going to drop so hard considering all that is going on. They talk about ever-looming foreclosures, how to buy at auction, HELOC abuse of the day etc etc but when I mention how well the 2010 Collection has sold and how TIC keeps raising prices... I get crickets.

In the past, if someone were to post what I posted, it would get an immediate response of snark, but just by the lack of it... that's an indicator that they have no idea why stuff is still as high as it is 3-4 years into this "down" cycle.

And the post I mentioned previously about IrvineRenter talking about the morality of strategic defaults was funny to me because it was like he was condoning people walking away from their mortgages. As if he wanted more people to do so in some weird roundabout method to get more foreclosures to inventory. So strange.

 

[waitin4ever]

I was and am still a bear on housing. But i still bought into 2010 collection. My reasons were

1] Timing for my family. Kids age etc. We wanted a home at this time. 4-5 years later would be too late.

2]But the most important reason was the low interest rate. Everything else being equal 6.5 % or so interest
rate instead of 5% should probably cause a 15% drop in price and so on. I would have loved to wait and
borrow much less or none 4-5 years later. But then point number 1 kicks in. and there is no gaurantee of higher
rates anytime soon.

I have atmost respect for Irvine Renter and his work. To be fair he is constantly revising his  final drop number
depending on how long the whole thing is taking.  He is also very clear on his views. He does say that all this other
factors (interventions) are making sure that prices take much longer to get back to where they should be.  and the
longer it takes the lesser it will drop. because the ideal 3% increase curve is rising for that much longer. I think
he does say that you can buy now but he doesn't want people to do that because they are expecting 10-15% annual increase
like the hey days. He is warning people who can justify today's buying only based on future 10 % a year appreciation.

We looked at Aliso, Mission, Laguna niguel areas. But i consistently find that things are equally stagnant there
just like irvine. (ignoring some areas where schools are not good). They were 10-15% lower than irvine during
peak and the same 10-15% lower now. I don't see this as Irvine only phenomenon.

And that's why I've started posting comments at the IHB recently.

I need some explanation as to why they think Irvine is still going to drop so hard considering all that is going on. They talk about ever-looming foreclosures, how to buy at auction, HELOC abuse of the day etc etc but when I mention how well the 2010 Collection has sold and how TIC keeps raising prices... I get crickets.

In the past, if someone were to post what I posted, it would get an immediate response of snark, but just by the lack of it... that's an indicator that they have no idea why stuff is still as high as it is 3-4 years into this "down" cycle.

And the post I mentioned previously about IrvineRenter talking about the morality of strategic defaults was funny to me because it was like he was condoning people walking away from their mortgages. As if he wanted more people to do so in some weird roundabout method to get more foreclosures to inventory. So strange.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I do believe the low interest rate/high price vs. high interest rate/low price argument is a bit of a lark.

I've done the math before, but let's do it again now. Say you bought a home with a $700k loan today at 5% interest. How much would that loan have to go down in price if the rate was 7%?

Answer: $135,000!!

So let's say you put down 20% (which I am not a fan of), that would put your purchase price at $875k (Carmel pricing).

That would put the purchase price for an 80% loan for $565k at $706,250. That's a drop of almost 20%!! That means you would lose your entire down payment.

Does anyone think that these new Woodbury homes are going to drop that much in price in 3 years? With everything that is going on, I'm having a hard time seeing it.

With all respect for IrvineRenter, I do believe he is course-correcting which is what many others are doing but don't want to admit. If he honestly didn't believe this would be an "ideal" time to buy or sell... he would not have brokered up. My one qualm with him is that he is not an owner himself so he has zero firsthand experience of what it's like to own property in Irvine. He may have lived here as a renter for a few years but I do think he's a bit out of touch with the actual demographic and psychology of what drives Irvine values. Although he knows financials and real estate very well... there are several non-fundamental factors he does not consider in some of his analyses (which he has started doing lately by mentioning the foreign valuation influences).

And you are correct, this re-bubble is evident in other OC cities... but notice it's the ones that are regarded as "premium". Santa Ana has been crushed... but so has Ladera Ranch and Rancho Santa Margarita.

Where is the book for "The Great Housing Bubble 2.0"?

 

[freedomcm]

I'm still renting.

I too am frustrated. 

But in making my bearish predictions, I just had no clue how differently from any past down-market this would play out.  Just two examples:

1.  Banks not taking back their collateral.  Who would have thought that banks would let people live rent-free for years?  Not even during the GD in the 30s did this happen!  Didn't happen in the 90s.  Is it due to securitization?  No incentive to actually take it back if you still get your servicing fees even if the mtg payment isn't coming in?

2.  Continued low-down (FHA, etc) financing at 40-50% DTI.  Who would have thought that after getting burned that the banks would have learned *nothing*!  In every past down-market, both rates and CCC have gone up, for the banks to not step in it again.  Was it .gov intervention or securitization that is allowing the banks not to learn how to write loans again?

 

[waitin4ever]

It doesn't matter whether you believe in prices falling 20% or not. I'm just going by my example. If interest rates were
7% or 6.5% today I would have bought a place which is priced at 470K range instead of 560K range. Because from
monthly cash flow that would have the range i could afford.  Then at today's pricing i would have realized that I'm actually
getting a much worse place than what i got now and may not have pulled the plug. If many more people acted that way
then prices would have to come down so the buying crowd gets something reasonable for the cash flow they can afford.

Yes I could probably afford a 560 K home even with high rates but that would come at expense of other savings like retirement,
Kids education. Maybe I'm just too wierd to be thinking about these other stuff as compared to normal demographic/psychology.

I do believe the low interest rate/high price vs. high interest rate/low price argument is a bit of a lark.

I've done the math before, but let's do it again now. Say you bought a home with a $700k loan today at 5% interest. How much would that loan have to go down in price if the rate was 7%?

Answer: $135,000!!

So let's say you put down 20% (which I am not a fan of), that would put your purchase price at $875k (Carmel pricing).

That would put the purchase price for an 80% loan for $565k at $706,250. That's a drop of almost 20%!! That means you would lose your entire down payment.

Does anyone think that these new Woodbury homes are going to drop that much in price in 3 years? With everything that is going on, I'm having a hard time seeing it.

With all respect for IrvineRenter, I do believe he is course-correcting which is what many others are doing but don't want to admit. If he honestly didn't believe this would be an "ideal" time to buy or sell... he would not have brokered up. My one qualm with him is that he is not an owner himself so he has zero firsthand experience of what it's like to own property in Irvine. He may have lived here as a renter for a few years but I do think he's a bit out of touch with the actual demographic and psychology of what drives Irvine values. Although he knows financials and real estate very well... there are several non-fundamental factors he does not consider in some of his analyses (which he has started doing lately by mentioning the foreign valuation influences).

And you are correct, this re-bubble is evident in other OC cities... but notice it's the ones that are regarded as "premium". Santa Ana has been crushed... but so has Ladera Ranch and Rancho Santa Margarita.

Where is the book for "The Great Housing Bubble 2.0"?

 

[qwerty]

If he honestly didn't believe this would be an "ideal" time to buy or sell... he would not have brokered up. My one qualm with him is that he is not an owner himself so he has zero firsthand experience of what it's like to own property in Irvine. He may have lived here as a renter for a few years but I do think he's a bit out of touch with the actual demographic and psychology of what drives Irvine values.

I disagree with this. IR's view on this is a good time to buy or not is irrelevant, if there is market activity and he or his team can service that market then they made the right decision to broker up. Just like the stock market, traders make money on activity/trend, they dont care if the market is moving up or down as long as its moving.

Also, im not sure how relevant it is whether someone owns or rent property in Irvine to be able to judge the market. Just living here gives you the same insight as an owner. I walk my neigborhood with my dogs one or two times a day seven days a week, i know all the streets and their demographics pretty well. I probably know the neighborhood better than a lot of the owners because im out so much and see everything that goes on.

 

[waitin4ever]

With all the prequalification and BS that has happened for 2010 collection, I can tell
my persoanl example. I was prequalified for Montecito Plan 2/3. But i bought monterey
plan 3 because i wanted to be at 25-26% front end DTI. Can you imagine my DTI
if I had bought a Montecito Plan 2/3  because I was prequalified. Probably 45%.
Banks thought that was just fine!!!!

I'm still renting.

I too am frustrated. 

But in making my bearish predictions, I just had no clue how differently from any past down-market this would play out.  Just two examples:

1.  Banks not taking back their collateral.  Who would have thought that banks would let people live rent-free for years?  Not even during the GD in the 30s did this happen!  Didn't happen in the 90s.  Is it due to securitization?  No incentive to actually take it back if you still get your servicing fees even if the mtg payment isn't coming in?

2.  Continued low-down (FHA, etc) financing at 40-50% DTI.  Who would have thought that after getting burned that the banks would have learned *nothing*!  In every past down-market, both rates and CCC have gone up, for the banks to not step in it again.  Was it .gov intervention or securitization that is allowing the banks not to learn how to write loans again?

 

[Chitown]

In my opinion. The Irvine real estate market and hence some of the near by good communities (affected by proximity) is not a true model of a free market. The fact that TIC is a profit company that is in real control of the land in Irvine is a big factor in what is happening in Irvine. They managed to control the supply/demand equation by holding building new constructions for a significant time hence they starved the market. They also have a great advertisement department that knows how to market a city. The fact that they have no loans on the land is another big factor. I think it is fair to say that the TIC has monopoly of Irvine and once you start thinking that way you can see a bigger picture.

Of course the fact that they are a profit based company also has its pros. It can aggressively seek new business to the city, advertise it well, spend on it is schools to make it very attractive...etc.

So while the rest of the cities in the OC that follow free market models has dropped 30-50%. Irvine on the other hand only dropped 15-25% or (whatever that number is) is due to the fact that it is controlled not necessarily reflecting the true value. So maybe Irivne will never see the 40% drop (unless of course more drops are coming above the 50% mark for the rest of the cities)  but it will not see much appreciation either for a long time until it will catch up with the true market value out there. So think of it this way other OC cities have a V , W or U shape curve while Irvine has a an L shape with the base of the L at 20% and staying there for a while until the rest of the market catches up with it. So I think the end results is one but different paths, but as they say all roads lead to Rome

The good news I think is that the Irvine company still has so much  land and will be in control for a long time ...so any tragic changes might not happen anytime soon.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

If he honestly didn't believe this would be an "ideal" time to buy or sell... he would not have brokered up. My one qualm with him is that he is not an owner himself so he has zero firsthand experience of what it's like to own property in Irvine. He may have lived here as a renter for a few years but I do think he's a bit out of touch with the actual demographic and psychology of what drives Irvine values.

I disagree with this. IR's view on this is a good time to buy or not is irrelevant, if there is market activity and he or his team can service that market then they made the right decision to broker up. Just like the stock market, traders make money on activity/trend, they dont care if the market is moving up or down as long as its moving.

Then why didn't he broker up earlier? My thinking is at the time, he was recommending that people rent and not buy because prices were too inflated so he would be contradicting himself. My point is that like many of the uber-bears, he does see the argument that buying now while interest rates are low, could be a good decision for people. He can do that now because he knows there is pent up demand, that the drop is slower than predicted, that interest rates are low, there are government incentives to buy and there is inventory he can get access to that normal buyer's couldn't (which is why he is pushing his Trustee sale services). I'm not disparaging his decision... I'm just saying that it's in an indicator that he now condones purchasing where before he did not.

Prior to him becoming a broker, he always stood by the argument that you should not buy while rates are low and prices are high... and don't see that mantra as much any more because as shown by my math above, it's not very realistic that you are going to save a significant amount of money, especially in places where pricing has remained stubborn. And like waiting4ever, for many people... the timing has to be sooner than later. I would also buy now because I want to get my kids into a stable school environment but I just can't pay that much because I paid that much during the peak and got MORE house.

Also, im not sure how relevant it is whether someone owns or rent property in Irvine to be able to judge the market. Just living here gives you the same insight as an owner. I walk my neigborhood with my dogs one or two times a day seven days a week, i know all the streets and their demographics pretty well. I probably know the neighborhood better than a lot of the owners because im out so much and see everything that goes on.

For you maybe... but from what I've seen you post, you do seem to be more in tune with what's going on. From some of the examples IR has posted, I'm not too sure. He can't have visited every house he profiles and merely posts based on the information in the MLS and the loan/title docs. Does he really know what is going on with the owners, how the neighborhoods are and what kind of houses the demographics of Irvine are interested in? I've lived/circulated in Irvine for over 25 years and I don't even know all the ins and outs... how could he?

And I disagree that being a renter will give you the same insight as an owner. There are psychological differences in ownership and I can speak from experience because I've been both in Irvine (I think you have too). There are financial ones too... such as the tax savings recognized from ownership deductions. Those are always downplayed at the IHB but my personal experience shows that they are significant depending on your situation.

In the end, what Larry is doing is very tough... as I've had conversations with others offline before, he is trying to balance being a prognasticator and a realtor/broker. There are times when they will contradict each other. It's one of the things I value about IrvineRealtor (Scott), he tries not to predict things, only comments on what he sees going on but always prefaces it by not knowing what the future holds. He will base his recommendation on your current needs and minimize relying on unknown future events to dictate your course of action. Once you start saying what will happen... that's where it gets dicey. It's easy enough to say that a bubble will pop... it's a lot harder to say exactly when and if or when it will re-inflate again (as we've seen the last 2 years).  Remember how the OArms were supposed to reset/recast and kill the market? Remember how the huge wave of foreclosures were supposed to hit a year ago? Remember how no government intervention was going to prevent the fall? Remember there was no way TIC was going to sell very many new homes at their price levels?

Maybe the expiration of the Fed credits will help (no thanks to Ahnuld's state "extension")... but given what has been happening... I'm just not sure. People I know are trying to buy like crazy and whenever I say prices are still too high... they look at me like I'm crazy. In fact, we're looking to buy too... but instead of a replacement for our 3CWG... we now have to look at condos or smaller SFRs because I vowed not to spend as much as we did back then.

And going back to the new IHB, I remember back when CK was asking about IR's business on the IHB and IR was a bit perturbed in his response asking what does the status of his brokerage have anything to do with us readers... I think it has everything to do with it. If your blog is about real estate and your business is about real estate... there is an explicit link there that cannot be denied. But maybe that's just my opinion.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

In my opinion. The Irvine real estate market and hence some of the near by good communities (affected by proximity) is not a true model of a free market. The fact that TIC is a profit company that is in real control of the land in Irvine is a big factor in what is happening in Irvine. They managed to control the supply/demand equation by holding building new constructions for a significant time hence they starved the market. They also have a great advertisement department that knows how to market a city. The fact that they have no loans on the land is another big factor. I think it is fair to say that the TIC has monopoly of Irvine and once you start thinking that way you can see a bigger picture.
[...]
The good news I think is that the Irvine company still has so much  land and will be in control for a long time ...so any tragic changes might not happen anytime soon.

But someone said on the IHB that the Irvine Company does not control prices... buyers do.

(I do agree with you... I'm just hoping one day awgee comes back and discusses this point... not because I think he's wrong... but I don't think he's totally right either)

 

[qwerty]

Then why didn't he broker up earlier?

Who knows. He was already employed in the RE business, i dont think he ever saw himself getting into the brokerage business but just kind of fell into it by writing the for the IHB and it just so happened zovall was a broker. Ive never met or talked to Larry so im just guessing in an attempt to answer your question.

Also, ive owned and rented in Redondo beach and i gained no new market knowledge by becoming an owner.  Ive only rented the whole time ive been in irvine (since 2007).  The tax thing with regard to real estate is hard to explain especially since everyones situation is unique .  While your overall tax bill is lower, you really have to look at cash flow, having a lower effective tax rate can be somewhat misleading. Ill give you my example, if we buy a 750K house, our tax liability gets reduced some 15K, most people would view that a very good thing, but from an overall cash flow perspective i have 1K less per month than i do now (granted i would be in much nicer house than what i rent) but i would have 1K less per month. So while i dont like paying as much as i do in taxes i dont really much of a choice. Also, we wouldnt benefit from a property tax deduction or a host of other deductions that most people get so the tax benefit for us is actually less than most people.

 

[fe9000]

In my opinion. The Irvine real estate market and hence some of the near by good communities (affected by proximity) is not a true model of a free market. The fact that TIC is a profit company that is in real control of the land in Irvine is a big factor in what is happening in Irvine. They managed to control the supply/demand equation by holding building new constructions for a significant time hence they starved the market. They also have a great advertisement department that knows how to market a city. The fact that they have no loans on the land is another big factor. I think it is fair to say that the TIC has monopoly of Irvine and once you start thinking that way you can see a bigger picture.
[...]
The good news I think is that the Irvine company still has so much  land and will be in control for a long time ...so any tragic changes might not happen anytime soon.

But someone said on the IHB that the Irvine Company does not control prices... buyers do.

(I do agree with you... I'm just hoping one day awgee comes back and discusses this point... not because I think he's wrong... but I don't think he's totally right either)

IHO, Don't know if that will ever happen.  We (we is just a figure of speech, not referencing to anyone in particular) may have been deemed brain-washed, sheeple, settling for less, not smart, pretenious, close-minded, etc etc etc.....

Newbie welcome Patrick Star...