I am looking to purchase a home in Irvine that is 2500 sq. ft + between $1.2 million - $1.6 million. I have looked at areas in Orchard Hill both the Grove and Reserve and although location seemed desirable, the homes seemed quite overpriced. Also, with rising interest rates through 2018, how are the homes valued and priced at Orchard Hills? Should I try to secure a home like Terra at the Reserve now or wait until next year? The market seems very hot right now and I'm wondering if I should hold off on buying a house until next year if interest rates are not a big factor for me. What are your thoughts? Any other recommendable neighborhoods? Any input would be helpful. Thanks everyone.
Orchard Hills a good buy?
- Thread starter spikey077
- Start date
Irvinecommuter
New member
I am not paid close attention to the housing market in the last year but my sense of it is that resells are hot but new home sales are meh, especially for houses/project between 1.2 and 1.5 million.
So many choices in that range between Great Park, Orchard Hills, and others. IF you are buying at $1.2 to 1.5 mil (which is like $1.4 to $1.8 mil after upgrades), you are beyond traditional buyer range.
So many choices in that range between Great Park, Orchard Hills, and others. IF you are buying at $1.2 to 1.5 mil (which is like $1.4 to $1.8 mil after upgrades), you are beyond traditional buyer range.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
> $1m is now the new "traditional buyer" range. 
Irvinecommuter
New member
irvinehomeowner said:> $1m is now the new "traditional buyer" range.
$1 million is the top of that range. You can put 20-30 percent down on a $1 million and get a jumbo loan. Beyond that you have to put more down or pay a lot more in interest.
Also need to consider property taxes and interest deduction caps.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
If I remember correctly, Irvine down payments are higher than 20% and have a larger amount of cash purchases.
So the "traditional range" can be higher.
#LegendOfTheFCB
So the "traditional range" can be higher.
#LegendOfTheFCB
Irvinecommuter
New member
irvinehomeowner said:
I believe FCBs were more a thing back in 2014/2015. China cracking down on money leaving the country and EB-5 visas are not really a thing anymore.
But at $1.5 mil...there are a lot of options within Irvine and outside of Irvine.
the.irvine
Active member
There was a study done by Chapman university very recently, where they have predicted home prices will drop by 10%+ due to new Tax reforms.
Higher interest rate and less deductions will make it harder for people to upgrade to bigger homes.
I am guessing what today is selling for 1.4M, in Dec 2018, would be close to 1.1M or less.
Higher interest rate and less deductions will make it harder for people to upgrade to bigger homes.
I am guessing what today is selling for 1.4M, in Dec 2018, would be close to 1.1M or less.
Irvinecommuter
New member
the.irvine said:
Personally I think prices will just stay stagnant in Irvine. You do not have the loss of jobs that would result in foreclosures, which is needed to drive RE prices down. People just will not sell if they cannot get the price that they want.
Homebuilders may have issues though.
the.irvine
Active member
Irvinecommuter said:
Agreed. I think resale will stay stronger, however new homes about 1.3+ will be impacted.
the.irvine said:
It's hard to see a slightly increase in interest rate and a few thousand dollar more in taxes be a major deterrent for these affluent Irvine home buyers in the market for $1M plus homes.
These extra taxes and the slightly higher interest rates are small in comparison to the 30% plus home price increases in the last few years and that didn't curbs the demands much.
I can see these factors be a obstacle for entry level home buyer or the first time home buyer in the less affluent area but definitely less of an impact in Irvine.
Irvinecommuter
New member
lnc said:
I don't know...I think that's a myth that Irvine home buyers are not scrapping every last penny to buy a home. Certainly there are a lot of FCBs but I know that we were able to afford our place because of the low rates and the low prices a few years back.
A $750,000 loan at 4% over 30 years would be a monthly payment of $3,580...while one at 4.5% would be $3,800...one at 5% would be $4,026. $500 a month net is a pretty big deal.
Hugo Township
Active member
I wish IrvineRenter still blogged about real estate economics in Irvine..
momopi
Well-known member
spikey077 said:
If you can afford up to 1.6 million, there are plenty of options in Irvine if you absolutely have to buy now. I'd look at SFR's built in 2000's on 4,500-5,000+ sq ft lot with lower mello roose and HOA if you want something new-ish. Former model homes with extra large lots are also desirable.
Orchid Hill home lot size are um... expect patio sized yards.
So in this scenario, IF I am looking to buy a new home from a home builder, it's better to wait 6-12 months for the market to slightly slow down with the upcoming interest rate hikes in 2018 correct? Resale homes will maintain similar to peak demand through the higher interest rates but newer build homes will slow down causing them to drop slightly? Thoughts?
marmott
Active member
I would start looking now, particularly if you want something new.
Always better to get pre qualified and be on the builders list in advance to be able to pick and choose the best lots / floor plans.
It looks like the price Irvine Company is charging builders for the land keep increasing too. That's not going to go down and will impact the prices of new build.
Always better to get pre qualified and be on the builders list in advance to be able to pick and choose the best lots / floor plans.
It looks like the price Irvine Company is charging builders for the land keep increasing too. That's not going to go down and will impact the prices of new build.
Irvinecommuter
New member
marmott said:
Land is already paid for...question is whether the builders have economic incentive to build out. William Lyon basically left the area around Tustin District un-built for years...ditto for Orchard Hills.
Prequalification is good but you may no longer qualify in 6 months with the interest rate goes up. Most loans have a 60 day lock and with a 6-8 month build out...that's tough.
If you want new, you can usually pick up property that have been built and the previous owner dropped out for whatever reason. That is your best bet.
Irvinecommuter said:
I think he means pre-qual with the builder to get on their VIP list. Longer you are on, and the more the salespeople knows you and see you, the better the odds of getting a better lot (if only because you get news of new phases before the public and they know you are a serious buyer).
If you can afford it now, I say just get on lists and get to know the lots and pounce when your ideal lot/elevation/plan appears. Timing is impossible and no one here knows what will happen. I personally think prices will stay stagnant so buying the better lots/neighborhoods long term will be what you should focus on.
If you are stretching, then waiting for quick delivery homes might be ok, but you will not be able to choose and likely end up with less desirable lot/plan/etc.
I actually have the same need... around 3000 sqt, up to 1.7m.
I looked around all Irvine current model homes, beverly and morrow in EW, como and Terra in OH3, Eleberry in PS, and Altair. Homes between 1.3-1.6 m and above is hard to sell. Beverly only sold 4. Morro has 4 or 5 available and kept offering incentives. Terra sold 9 out of 16. Calistoga closed the office now and said would reopen next Jan. I am waiting to see the price move next year.
I looked around all Irvine current model homes, beverly and morrow in EW, como and Terra in OH3, Eleberry in PS, and Altair. Homes between 1.3-1.6 m and above is hard to sell. Beverly only sold 4. Morro has 4 or 5 available and kept offering incentives. Terra sold 9 out of 16. Calistoga closed the office now and said would reopen next Jan. I am waiting to see the price move next year.
Perspective
Well-known member
HMart said:
As the real estate market recovered and became stable and boring, IR's comment section on OC Housing News became increasingly vitriolic right wing rage and idiotic rhetoric. As much as I enjoyed daily convos with him, the crowd was intolerable. I left, and so did IR shortly thereafter. I'm certain his days are much more pleasant now.
As for Orchard Hills as a "good buy," who cares and who knows? Do you love it when you drive through the neighborhoods? Do you think how awesome it would be to leave and return to this area every day? Those were my initial thoughts in Jan 2015 when I first visited. Got on a list immediately and kept returning weekly to the sales office ensuring they knew I was a serious buyer.