Oil

[irvinehomeowner]

Is the war over yet?

Is Hormuz open or closed?

Can't tell... Trump and morekaos are like twins.

 

[morekaos]

Open…Still a one sided beatdown, not a war…we just gotta keep killing leadership down to where they will succumb…bit more time, no big deal

U.S. says more than 8 million barrels of oil transited Hormuz Sunday with military assistance​

• The Department of Energy told CNBC that 8.5 million barrels of oil transited Hormuz on Sunday despite the weekend fighting with Iran.
• Total flows out of the Middle East Gulf region are averaging 15 million barrels per day, a department spokesperson said.
• Trump reinstituted a naval blockade again of the strait on Monday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/13/shi...are|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

 

[morekaos]

i’m driving to Montana Wednesday with my family in our Suburban, I’ll keep you updated on how cheap the fuel gets as we get further and further away from California

Back from a wonderful 5 day trip to Pony Montana…17 hour drive through 6 states….Put just enough in the burb to get over the state line in Nevada, then Arizona, Utah, Idaho and finally Montana….$5.69 in Long Beach but just a few hundred miles away it dropped to $3.99 and progressed lower till it bottomed out at $3.75….We suck!!! And as an aside, after covering 2,200 total driving miles we never saw one Tesla CyberTruck or for that matter we saw only 2 Tesla’s…Again…we suck!!

 

[irvinehomeowner]

U.S. says more than 8 million barrels of oil transited Hormuz Sunday with military assistance

US also said war was over.

8m isn't a big number compared to consumption and what usually moves through Hormuz if that's true.

It's like me saying I LOST 5 POUNDS!

 

[morekaos]

It's like me saying I LOST 5 POUNDS!

Congratulations

 

[morekaos]

Back to normal flows less the Iranian production (blockaded) and overland flows through alternative pipelines…next!...

Energy Secretary Chris Wright tells CNBC more than 17 million barrels of oil transited Hormuz on Monday

· Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz hit a wartime record on Monday of more than 17 million barrels per day.

· Around 20 million bpd of crude and products passed through Hormuz before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/ene...rce=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Verdict: The claim is unverified and actively disputed by independent market analysts, though plausible under specific U.S. government counting methods.

The Reality Behind the Claim​

1. The 17+ Million Barrel Figure (Strait of Hormuz)

• The U.S. Government Case: U.S. CENTCOM and the Department of Energy maintain that their counts are accurate because they track "dark transits". Tankers in the U.S.-guarded coastal corridor off Oman frequently turn off their AIS (Automatic Identification System) transponders and travel under the cover of night to avoid Iranian attacks. The U.S. government claims private analytics miss these untracked, escorted vessels.
• The Commercial & Market Case: Independent vessel-tracking services (such as Kpler and Vortexa) report significantly lower physical flows. They point out that total ship movements through the strait remain heavily suppressed compared to normal baselines due to sky-high insurance premiums, ongoing mine risks, and drone strikes.

2. The Claim That Regional Exports Exceeded Pre-War Levels (Via Pipelines)

• The Physical Bottleneck: Saudi Arabia (East-West Pipeline) and the UAE (Habshan–Fujairah Pipeline) do have overland bypass options to avoid the strait. However, even at maximum operational capacity, these pipelines can move around 6.5 to 7 million barrels per day combined.
• The Math: For total regional exports (including pipelines) to beat the ~20 million bpd pre-war baseline, ship transit through Hormuz would still need to be massive. If the true shipborne flow was closer to independent estimates (~9–10 million bpd), total exports would still fall short of pre-war levels despite the bypass routes.

Key Takeaway​

Secretary Wright's statement is not an universally accepted fact—it relies on internal U.S. military intelligence tracking non-broadcasting tankers. To independent energy traders, maritime intelligence firms, and vessel trackers, the figure is seen as an optimistic estimate meant to signal market stability rather than a fully verified physical count.

And from ChatGPT:

No. As of today, September 3, 2026, Strait of Hormuz traffic is nowhere near normal daily oil-transit levels.

Before the war, roughly 20–21 million barrels/day of oil and petroleum products moved through Hormuz. The latest data indicate that flows have recovered substantially from the extreme lows, but remain well below normal.

• Prewar: ~20–21 million bpd
• Recent estimates: roughly 15–16 million bpd of Gulf oil exports, including some routes that bypass Hormuz; Goldman Sachs estimates about 8–10 million bpd actually passing through Hormuz.
• Ship traffic: still severely depressed. On Wednesday, only 6 vessels passed through versus a normal average of about 13.
• On Tuesday, Kpler counted only 4 commodity vessels, versus a 10-day average of ~13.

So if you're asking "Is Hormuz effectively back to normal?" — absolutely not.

But here's the interesting part​

The situation is much better than the worst point of the shutdown. Oil is getting out through a combination of:

Hormuz crossings + ship-to-ship transfers + alternative pipelines/routes + vessels operating with reduced tracking.

That's why you can see claims that 15–17 million barrels/day are moving out of the Gulf while at the same time vessel traffic through the actual strait is dramatically below normal.

And this explains something we were discussing earlier: oil prices aren't behaving as though 20 million barrels/day have suddenly disappeared. The world has found ways to move a significant portion of the oil, but at considerably higher risk and cost.

Bottom line: We're probably at something like 70–80% of normal Gulf oil export capacity, but Hormuz itself is not operating normally, and today's military escalation is pushing traffic back in the wrong direction. Reuters reports Brent around $96–97 today, reflecting that renewed risk.

 

[morekaos]

The Singularity is biased…lets make that bet…I bet Oil will collapse back to $60-$70 before the end of the year if not within the next few months…Supply is smothering demand right now…drill baby drill!!! Has worked as planned…

 

[irvinehomeowner]

You're so funny... you and your homie said a few days, then a few weeks, then a few months when this war started.

Can't bet against moving goalposts.

 

[morekaos]

You're so funny... you and your homie said a few days, then a few weeks, then a few months when this war started.

Can't bet against moving goalposts.

I get why you’re hesitant to bet considering your record…regardless…I will be right again (and I’ll make money in other ways on the correct call…as always)

 

[irvinehomeowner]

You can always be right if you keep changing things.

You have been continually wrong about when Iran war would be over and Hormuz would really be open.. yet you can't admit it. Sounds like someone.