Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?

irvinehomeowner said:
best_potsticker_in_town said:
On the buy-side, there will always be more than enough cash buyers for Irvine and they aren't as impacted by current events and interest rates.
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Why is it whenever I say this... I'm a crazy man?
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Because 2018 showed that it wasn't true; Rates hit 5% and suddenly the all-cash buyers dried up until 2020, when the printing presses fired up once again.
 
I'm not sure where you get your data but in 2018 there was an increase of cash buyers in LA/OC compared to previous years.
 
Also not sure how rates rising would cause cash buyers to dry up... they aren't financing... so that's the point... high rates aren't much of a deterrent.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Also not sure how rates rising would cause cash buyers to dry up... they aren't financing... so that's the point... high rates aren't much of a deterrent.
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Of course high interest rates will dry up cash buyers.  These cash buyers are business people.

Most businesses fund expansion thru a combination of cash and debt.  When cost of debt (high interest rates) goes up they need to use more cash for business expansion and therefore have less cash for their homes.

There definitely is a correlation but the questions is how much for Irvine.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/an...ted-average-cost-capital-wacc-calculation.asp

Taking Open Door, Redfin (public companies) out as potential buyers itself is huge.
 
I think it depends.

I'm talking FCBs which may have different dynamics abroad vs US mortgage rates.

I understand the business aspect of cash vs debt but if some rich middle easterner is buying a home in Irvine, they are just going to buy it... regardless of BofA rates. :)
 
If I were a cash buyer today, I would wait 6 months to see how these higher interest rates affect housing.

Higher interest rates should cause housing to go down, but sometimes other factors are @work.



Currently, not enough houses, and too much demand.
 
First Bank is now offering new customer 3% savings rate on performance checking account.  Most cash buyers will disappear once all banks start offering 3-4% savings rate.  Why would cash buyers keep buying homes if home prices NOT going up anymore?  Besides, imagine less buyers can qualify for mortgages once mortgage rates hit 6-7% by end of this year.  Demand will be less than supply?..
Expect supply to go up in the near futurehttps://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/as...ar-time-is-running-out-to-cash-in-11649275058
 
I always thought it would be wise to be a cash buyer during a slow market with more inventory and higher rates. I would think ones cash would go further in that type of market.

In a low interest rate market, you have to compete and fork out more to get the same home where as if rates were up, the price would generally be lower.

But what do I know? I?m no cash buyer :)
 
sleepy5136 said:
I always thought it would be wise to be a cash buyer during a slow market with more inventory and higher rates. I would think ones cash would go further in that type of market.

In a low interest rate market, you have to compete and fork out more to get the same home where as if rates were up, the price would generally be lower.

But what do I know? I?m no cash buyer :)
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Yeah, when the market is strong and financed buyers are waiving appraisal and loan contingencies and removing all contingencies in 5-7 days plus have enough cash to cover any appraisal shortfalls there's no cash buyer discount.
 
Davidlee199 said:
First Bank is now offering new customer 3% savings rate on performance checking account.  Most cash buyers will disappear once all banks start offering 3-4% savings rate.  Why would cash buyers keep buying homes if home prices NOT going up anymore?  Besides, imagine less buyers can qualify for mortgages once mortgage rates hit 6-7% by end of this year.  Demand will be less than supply?..
Expect supply to go up in the near futurehttps://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/as...ar-time-is-running-out-to-cash-in-11649275058
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DavidLee you crack me up man lolllllll

Troll level 500
 
The best bet in today economic uncertainty and calamity is to hold on to your hard assets. Lands, farm lands, commodities resources, and especially housings/shelters are great bet against the stupidity of our FED.

There is no way the FED will engineer a soft landing. If they said inflation is transitory, which is a simple words and got it so wrong, how can they land this economy safely, when the plane is flying without a properly train pilot and without landing gears? The answer is, don't fight the FED, and be your own central planning.
 
Sales down, inventory up, mortgage rates way up...

California Association of Realtors: Housing Inventory is Up Year-Over-Year

Active listings in March climbed to the highest level in five months and posted the first year-over-year gain since June 2019. The month-to-month increase of 37.7 percent in newly added listings was also the highest since May 2020.
https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2022releases/mar2022sales

Alfred-E.-Neuman_What-Me-Worry2.jpg

              CAR rolls out it's new slogan.
 
I'm not sure of the accuracy of this data source, but Movoto shows more homes for sale in Irvine now than one year ago:

493 currently vs. 330 in April '21

Almost a 50% increase that can't be written off as seasonality.
 

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  • Irvine Homes for Sale - April 2022.png
    Irvine Homes for Sale - April 2022.png
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Your post doesn't make sense.

What about April '20 or April '19? Or maybe compare to a non-Covid time period like April '18 or April '17. The raw count is irrelevant, the trend is what matters.

The chart clearly shows seasonality, inventory numbers go up approaching summer and go down in the winter.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Your post doesn't make sense.

What about April '20 or April '19? Or maybe compare to a non-Covid time period like April '18 or April '17. The raw count is irrelevant, the trend is what matters.

The chart clearly shows seasonality, inventory numbers go up approaching summer and go down in the winter.
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The YoY trend is going up.  Both March and April are higher than a year ago.  USC has been asking for more inventory, so I'm wondering if this shows he is getting his wish?
 
Liar Loan said:
I'm not sure of the accuracy of this data source, but Movoto shows more homes for sale in Irvine now than one year ago:

493 currently vs. 330 in April '21

Almost a 50% increase that can't be written off as seasonality.
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Wrong, there are 212 active listing on MLS right now and 261 in under contract/pending status so 473 if you add both up.
 

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  • Irvine Active Listings.pdf
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Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Your post doesn't make sense.

What about April '20 or April '19? Or maybe compare to a non-Covid time period like April '18 or April '17. The raw count is irrelevant, the trend is what matters.

The chart clearly shows seasonality, inventory numbers go up approaching summer and go down in the winter.
Click to expand...

The YoY trend is going up.  Both March and April are higher than a year ago.  USC has been asking for more inventory, so I'm wondering if this shows he is getting his wish?
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Uhhhh, check the PDF attachment in my previous post. 
 
What?s going on with the listings below?
Either price drop or back on market?
6 Duskywing
166 Tribeca
87 Strawberry
15 Courant
58 Clocktower
 
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