NewportSkipper

[quote author="bigmoneysalsa" date=1252655535][quote author="trrenter" date=1252622476]I want to open a thread to give you an opportunity to express your views and theories on the direction the housing market will go.



One of the reasons I have continued to read this blog is the well thought out Blog posts by IR and the other interesting verifiable information I get from other members.



Most of the predictions I have read, that were obviously based on much research, have been proven pretty accurate.



Here IR admits his prediction was wrong. <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/i-was-wrong-its-worse">I was wrong by IR.</a>



Any way I would like to know why you believe everything that is written here is wrong.



If you could spend some time and inform us from start to finish, with some hard data thrown in from credible sources, what you believe the future of the market is.



Do you think prices are now stabalized? If so why. Please don't point to what you think may happen, like Fannie will have a creative new mortgage tool that will solve the problem unless you can point me in a direction to get that loan today.



If you talk about how Loan mods will save the day I would like to see contradictory hard data that disproves what I have seen which is loan mods are not very effective.



In other words don't tell me ... you wait and see how this next group of loan mods works. I want to see verifiable proof that they work and what the net effect of those mods has on price stabalization.



I don't want to use my imagination, I want you to spend some time like IR and the rest of the members here and pull together some market research that proves out what you have been presenting in bits and pieces.</blockquote>


Seriously guys, is it a good idea to be starting threads explicitly for the purpose of calling out a particular member and his/her views? IMHO this is like school in summertime - no class.</blockquote>


I am seriously curious as to what Newports view of the market is and why he believes it to be true. I have a pretty clear picture of what it is but that is only from how he tells other people how they are wrong. I would genuinly like to know why he thinks the way he does.



I came to this site to learn about the Bubble. I have trust in some of the other posters here because of their body of work.



If they are wrong and Newport can make a compelling argument why they are wrong I want to know that as well.



I didn't attack him I didn't make any derogatory comments about him in my question. I just wanted to know what his views were and why.



If you can point to what in my post had no class I will gladly change the wording as not to offend anyone.
 
[quote author="trrenter" date=1252659432][quote author="bigmoneysalsa" date=1252655535][quote author="trrenter" date=1252622476]I want to open a thread to give you an opportunity to express your views and theories on the direction the housing market will go.



One of the reasons I have continued to read this blog is the well thought out Blog posts by IR and the other interesting verifiable information I get from other members.



Most of the predictions I have read, that were obviously based on much research, have been proven pretty accurate.



Here IR admits his prediction was wrong. <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/i-was-wrong-its-worse">I was wrong by IR.</a>



Any way I would like to know why you believe everything that is written here is wrong.



If you could spend some time and inform us from start to finish, with some hard data thrown in from credible sources, what you believe the future of the market is.



Do you think prices are now stabalized? If so why. Please don't point to what you think may happen, like Fannie will have a creative new mortgage tool that will solve the problem unless you can point me in a direction to get that loan today.



If you talk about how Loan mods will save the day I would like to see contradictory hard data that disproves what I have seen which is loan mods are not very effective.



In other words don't tell me ... you wait and see how this next group of loan mods works. I want to see verifiable proof that they work and what the net effect of those mods has on price stabalization.



I don't want to use my imagination, I want you to spend some time like IR and the rest of the members here and pull together some market research that proves out what you have been presenting in bits and pieces.</blockquote>


Seriously guys, is it a good idea to be starting threads explicitly for the purpose of calling out a particular member and his/her views? IMHO this is like school in summertime - no class.</blockquote>


I am seriously curious as to what Newports view of the market is and why he believes it to be true. I have a pretty clear picture of what it is but that is only from how he tells other people how they are wrong. I would genuinly like to know why he thinks the way he does.



I came to this site to learn about the Bubble. I have trust in some of the other posters here because of their body of work.



If they are wrong and Newport can make a compelling argument why they are wrong I want to know that as well.



I didn't attack him I didn't make any derogatory comments about him in my question. I just wanted to know what his views were and why.



If you can point to what in my post had no class I will gladly change the wording as not to offend anyone.</blockquote>
You haven't said anything offensive. It's just that... I don't know, it seems like once threads start focusing on personalities instead of issues the discussion loses all coherence. The interesting ideas get lost in the petty arguments. But, if I'm the only one bothered by this I'll just shut up and ignore it.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1252632476]This ought to be epic. Too bad I won't be able to see it.</blockquote>


Why the heck not? If its that gorgeous puppy in your profile then you had better be posting the pics of that adorable pup.
 
[quote author="GraceOMalley" date=1252660931][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1252632476]This ought to be epic. Too bad I won't be able to see it.</blockquote>


Why the heck not? If its that gorgeous puppy in your profile then you had better be posting the pics of that adorable pup.</blockquote>


I think no_vas has chosen to "ignore" Skippy if I recall correctly.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252647623] I happen to think Irvine Renter made some serious and sloppy mistakes in several of his analysis posts, from his present value calculations to his overstating the default rate by 100%. It has fallen on deaf ears. Go check out the Shadow Inventory post where a reader agreed with me and called upon IR to fix his post. That is not going to happen, but it was nice to see that someone else cares about the truth.</blockquote>


It has fallen on deaf ears because the problems with the analysis you think you have found do not exist. Some of the data is not perfect, and that has been noted as such, but the calculations and the methodology are sound.
 
To be clear, I have no skin in this game. I am not a realtor nor do I work in real estate. I come to this blog to read the various posts and threads in hopes of learning something. The blog and the majority of its regulars tend to be bearish on the real estate market. The market has proven them correct. The exchange of views between these bears and those that are more bullish is educational for many of us who don't follow the RE market as closely as others. For that I am grateful.



That being said, whenever those regulars are questioned, like IR, they support their positions with facts/data. Reasonable minds may disagree with what the data means, but the data is there to be debated. Newport Skipper, I must say, I have read many of your posts. But I must agree trr and others here because I can't recall seeing factual support for your arguments. If you have provided objective facts and date, and I have missed them, I apologize. perhaps you could provide them again? If you have not posted your support, you should. if for no other reason than to humor many and educate some, like me, who don't know. It may even lead some to adjust assumptions or admit they were incorrect in previous analyses.



From my perspective, however, it seems that rather than provide this support, you're content with attacking those who question you. thus far you have failed to support your positions. I'm sure you'll call me some name for pointing this out and accuse me of towing the party line. Fine. But I'd ask that after the name calling you supply data -- which should speak for itself.



It would seem to me that failing to do so is tantamount to admitting that there is no objective support for your positions.
 
I actually don't mind Skip that much. All the well-informed responses to him has just weaken his position to a point that his only recourse is some of snark he retorts with.



He can't admit fault, instead he veils it as misunderstanding (see: Two 150k props thread)... especially when the data is against him. But... he does have points that require further inspection. His delivery may not be the best (it's probably the worst), he has a thing about protecting/supporting RoLar, he gives no credentials and his follow-through is shoddy... but I think all can admit that it's been a pretty active two weeks on the IHB.



I'll probably be the only member of IHB not to have him on ignore.
 
Ah, revisionist history at its finest. Good thing the threads in question still exist to counter your made-up facts.



Yes, you are openly-aggressive instead of choosing the passive-aggressive act of announcing to the world that you have placed somone on "ignore". Interesting that people choose to not even listen to that which challenges their established positions.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1252712783]I actually don't mind Skip that much. All the well-informed responses to him has just weaken his position to a point that his only recourse is some of snark he retorts with.



He can't admit fault, instead he veils it as misunderstanding (see: Two 150k props thread)... especially when the data is against him. But... he does have points that require further inspection. His delivery may not be the best (it's probably the worst), he has a thing about protecting/supporting RoLar, he gives no credentials and his follow-through is shoddy... but I think all can admit that it's been a pretty active two weeks on the IHB.



I'll probably be the only member of IHB not to have him on ignore.</blockquote>




I havent ignored him either.



Although this reason is purely for my amusement. I am thoroughly enjoying the train wreck that is SkipperDan (thank you Nude).



"You don't want to stare, but you just can't look away."
 
I must admit. It is entertaining.



<img src="http://bestofprowrestling.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/doinktheclown.jpg" alt="" />
 
You are proving it is you who is to be laughed at. I will continue to bring the facts and you will continue to create an alternate reality.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252713283]Ah, revisionist history at its finest. Good thing the threads in question still exist to counter your made-up facts.

</blockquote>
Yeah... good thing this still exists:

<blockquote>

Maybe I am truly alone on this, but I took it as the options being a given. If I am in the wilderness in this belief, then I apologize.

</blockquote>
Yes, you were in the wilderness to think that when someone asks if he should buy TWO $150k properties that he can rent out for $1400 that they should actually exist. What's the use of asking that question if they didn't?



Did you find those two AVAILABLE properties yet? Remember you said it was a fact that they could rent out at $1500 (sorry... no changies).

<blockquote>

Yes, you are openly-aggressive instead of choosing the passive-aggressive act of announcing to the world that you have placed somone on "ignore". Interesting that people choose to not even listen to that which challenges their established positions.</blockquote>
I find it ironic that you think I'm aggressive. I may be persistent, but if you want to talk about revisionist history, it was you who has made uncalled-for characterizations about me.



Maybe you are too sensitive? I'm not trying to characterize you... just trying to shed light on why you feel simple words on the internet are "openly-aggressive". This is a discussion after all and when someone successfully refutes your counter, an insulting response doesn't really help your position.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1252714841][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252713283]Ah, revisionist history at its finest. Good thing the threads in question still exist to counter your made-up facts.

</blockquote>
Yeah... good thing this still exists:

<blockquote>

Maybe I am truly alone on this, but I took it as the options being a given. If I am in the wilderness in this belief, then I apologize.

</blockquote>
Yes, you were in the wilderness to think that when someone asks if he should buy TWO $150k properties that he can rent out for $1400 that they should actually exist. What's the use of asking that question if they didn't?



Did you find those two AVAILABLE properties yet? Remember you said it was a fact that they could rent out at $1500 (sorry... no changies).

<blockquote>

Yes, you are openly-aggressive instead of choosing the passive-aggressive act of announcing to the world that you have placed somone on "ignore". Interesting that people choose to not even listen to that which challenges their established positions.</blockquote>
I find it ironic that you think I'm aggressive. I may be persistent, but if you want to talk about revisionist history, it was you who has made uncalled-for characterizations about me.



Maybe you are too sensitive? I'm not trying to characterize you... just trying to shed light on why you feel simple words on the internet are "openly-aggressive". This is a discussion after all and when someone successfully refutes your counter, an insulting response doesn't really help your position.</blockquote>


You clearly didn't see, nor appreciate, that I conceded something to you that was completely undeserved. Since you still want to go there, he never said "should I" he said "would you". I know it's tough for you to comprehend the obvious difference, but it is clear as day.



"Hello,



For investment purpose, if you have 300k, would you buy 2(two) older, $150k properties in Tustin with $1400 rent/mo each or 1(one) 300k property in Irvine with $1800 rent/mo?



I know the Tustin choice yield much higher rents but the Irvine choice has much greater potential on the future home value due to the superior city layout, environment, and schools.



Any inputs would be greatly appreciated!"



The intention is crystal-clear. And yes, such properties exist. You sound desperate trying to keep rehashing this.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252715596]You clearly didn't see, nor appreciate, that I conceded something to you that was completely undeserved.

</blockquote>
Well... now that you say it's undeserved, I guess I can't appreciate it.

<blockquote>

Since you still want to go there, he never said "should I" he said "would you". I know it's tough for you to comprehend the obvious difference, but it is clear as day.

</blockquote>
Arguing semantics again?



I know it's tough for you to understand but on a discussion board about real estate or actually just in life, if someone asks "would you", in order to respond correctly, the scenario they are asking about should exist correct? Or should we just hypothetically answer without knowing any facts about the neighborhood or if the inventory is available or if the rents actually track that high for the number of properties inquired about? Oh wait... that's what you did.



Is there a difference between:



Should I buy a 4br SFR in Irvine for $100k?



or



Would you buy a 4br SFR in Irvine for $100k?



The answer to both would be "yes" followed up by... does one exist? Which is what the responses other than yours were in that thread.

<blockquote>

The intention is crystal-clear. <strong>And yes, such properties exist.</strong> You sound desperate trying to keep rehashing this.</blockquote>
Show me the properties that are active now. You off-handedly remarked there are 25 others, then no_vas called you on it and you modified it to 25 others that sell at 10x rental (rather than $150k/$1400). But when it actually came to pulling DATA, there were only 7 available less than $175k (some of which were short sales).



Your "undeserved" apology came not because there was a question of intent from the original poster, but because you could not refute the DATA. You like to harp on how important DATA is, go to that area of Tustin, look at the properties, look at the comparable rentals (apartments too) and come back and answer that question again. I am not the one in a desperate position here... it is being rehashed because this is an example of DATA that you can't refute.
 
<a href="http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&videoid=60350142"><img src="http://image.kazaa.com/images/23/884977283723/Weird_Al_Yankovic/Skipper_Dan/Weird_Al_Yankovic-Skipper_Dan_2.jpg" alt="" /></a>
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1252716621][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252715596]You clearly didn't see, nor appreciate, that I conceded something to you that was completely undeserved.

</blockquote>
Well... now that you say it's undeserved, I guess I can't appreciate it.

<blockquote>

Since you still want to go there, he never said "should I" he said "would you". I know it's tough for you to comprehend the obvious difference, but it is clear as day.

</blockquote>
Arguing semantics again?



I know it's tough for you to understand but on a discussion board about real estate or actually just in life, if someone asks "would you", in order to respond correctly, the scenario they are asking about should exist correct? Or should we just hypothetically answer without knowing any facts about the neighborhood or if the inventory is available or if the rents actually track that high for the number of properties inquired about? Oh wait... that's what you did.



Is there a difference between:



Should I buy a 4br SFR in Irvine for $100k?



or



Would you buy a 4br SFR in Irvine for $100k?



The answer to both would be "yes" followed up by... does one exist? Which is what the responses other than yours were in that thread.

<blockquote>

The intention is crystal-clear. <strong>And yes, such properties exist.</strong> You sound desperate trying to keep rehashing this.</blockquote>
Show me the properties that are active now. You off-handedly remarked there are 25 others, then no_vas called you on it and you modified it to 25 others that sell at 10x rental (rather than $150k/$1400). But when it actually came to pulling DATA, there were only 7 available less than $175k (some of which were short sales).



Your "undeserved" apology came not because there was a question of intent from the original poster, but because you could not refute the DATA. You like to harp on how important DATA is, go to that area of Tustin, look at the properties, look at the comparable rentals (apartments too) and come back and answer that question again. I am not the one in a desperate position here... it is being rehashed because this is an example of DATA that you can't refute.</blockquote>


You are the most intectually-dishonest person I have ever met. For the last time: the 25 were active, backup or pending. It doesn't matter if all 25 are active because the data gleaned is the values (which was the first half of the data needed to compare to rents). This is not hard to understand, except apparently, to you. Seeing you continue to beat this to death is like watching a car crash in slow motion.



And here is my actual comment:



"These comments have no basis in reality. Tustin rents range from $1,200 to $2,800 for 2-3 bedrooms and there are many units that have sold at (and below) $150,000. It?s a fact that a $150,000 condo rents for around $1,400."



Do you see the word "many"? Is "many" the same or different than the word "25"? In fact, the many was used in relation to sold units. The 25 came later and in relation to the number on the market in some way or another.
 
NSkipper-- where do you find the time?? I've been on this blog for almost two years-- and you have more than 5X the number of posts than I, in a little more than 2 weeks......
 
Seven active and 4 in backup offers under $150,000:



15500 Tustin Village Way 111? $125,000?

16625 Townhouse Dr? $129,900?

15500 Tustin Village? $130,000?

1192 E Mitchell Ave 67? $130,000?

675 W 6th St D? $140,000?

655 W 6th St C? $142,000?

1881 Mitchell Ave 127? $150,000?

1181 E Packers Cir 115? $124,700?

1192 Mitchell Ave 2? $135,000?

15512 Williams St K? $149,000?

652 W Main St B? $150,000?



Offered for rent (and they have rented for these amounts). Some are 2 bedroom and/or smaller:



http://www.realtor.com/realestatean...tchell-Ave-Unit-90_Tustin_CA_92780_1108958463



http://www.realtor.com/realestatean...tchell-Ave-Unit-19_Tustin_CA_92780_1109185427



http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1192-Mitchell-Unit-63_Tustin_CA_92780_1112190143



http://www.realtor.com/realestatean...tchell-Ave-Unit-97_Tustin_CA_92780_1111023578



http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1096-Mitchell-Ave_Tustin_CA_92780_1108050279
 
[quote author="furious sugar" date=1252719954]NSkipper-- where do you find the time?? I've been on this blog for almost two years-- and you have more than 5X the number of posts than I, in a little more than 2 weeks......</blockquote>


It's easy to get caught up in defending yourself against the hyaenas
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252720146]Seven active and 4 in backup offers under $150,000:



15500 Tustin Village Way 111? $125,000?

16625 Townhouse Dr? $129,900?

15500 Tustin Village? $130,000?

1192 E Mitchell Ave 67? $130,000?

675 W 6th St D? $140,000?

655 W 6th St C? $142,000?

1881 Mitchell Ave 127? $150,000?

1181 E Packers Cir 115? $124,700?

1192 Mitchell Ave 2? $135,000?

15512 Williams St K? $149,000?

652 W Main St B? $150,000?</blockquote>


Can we get the MLS numbers so we can make sure we are comparing apples to apples and not to oranges? Just the actives will do.
 
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