NewportSkipper

trrenter_IHB

trrenter_IHB

New member
I want to open a thread to give you an opportunity to express your views and theories on the direction the housing market will go.



One of the reasons I have continued to read this blog is the well thought out Blog posts by IR and the other interesting verifiable information I get from other members.



Most of the predictions I have read, that were obviously based on much research, have been proven pretty accurate.



Here IR admits his prediction was wrong. <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/i-was-wrong-its-worse">I was wrong by IR.</a>



Any way I would like to know why you believe everything that is written here is wrong.



If you could spend some time and inform us from start to finish, with some hard data thrown in from credible sources, what you believe the future of the market is.



Do you think prices are now stabalized? If so why. Please don't point to what you think may happen, like Fannie will have a creative new mortgage tool that will solve the problem unless you can point me in a direction to get that loan today.



If you talk about how Loan mods will save the day I would like to see contradictory hard data that disproves what I have seen which is loan mods are not very effective.



In other words don't tell me ... you wait and see how this next group of loan mods works. I want to see verifiable proof that they work and what the net effect of those mods has on price stabalization.



I don't want to use my imagination, I want you to spend some time like IR and the rest of the members here and pull together some market research that proves out what you have been presenting in bits and pieces.
 
I just posted this question/opinion on another thread, so my apologies in advance for the dual posting, but this thread is a more appropriate venue.



Has there been any sort of quantification (even speculative) of the impact the $8,000 first time homebuyer credit is having on sales trends? It stands to reason that sales will drop precipitously once that expires.
 
[quote author="CM_Dude" date=1252633042]I just posted this question/opinion on another thread, so my apologies in advance for the dual posting, but this thread is a more appropriate venue.



Has there been any sort of quantification (even speculative) of the impact the $8,000 first time homebuyer credit is having on sales trends? It stands to reason that sales will drop precipitously once that expires.</blockquote>
Yeah, there is correlational eveidence that it has made a big impact on sales in the low to mid end market and the first time buyer market. When I run accross the charts, I will post them.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1252634558][quote author="CM_Dude" date=1252633042]I just posted this question/opinion on another thread, so my apologies in advance for the dual posting, but this thread is a more appropriate venue.



Has there been any sort of quantification (even speculative) of the impact the $8,000 first time homebuyer credit is having on sales trends? It stands to reason that sales will drop precipitously once that expires.</blockquote>
Yeah, there is correlational eveidence that it has made a big impact on sales in the low to mid end market and the first time buyer market. When I run accross the charts, I will post them.</blockquote>


I believe it was Calculated Risk who posted an article saying it didn't do much and was just a big waste of taxpayers money.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252635793][quote author="awgee" date=1252634558][quote author="CM_Dude" date=1252633042]I just posted this question/opinion on another thread, so my apologies in advance for the dual posting, but this thread is a more appropriate venue.



Has there been any sort of quantification (even speculative) of the impact the $8,000 first time homebuyer credit is having on sales trends? It stands to reason that sales will drop precipitously once that expires.</blockquote>
Yeah, there is correlational eveidence that it has made a big impact on sales in the low to mid end market and the first time buyer market. When I run accross the charts, I will post them.</blockquote>


I believe it was Calculated Risk who posted an article saying it didn't do much and was just a big waste of taxpayers money.</blockquote>
That article showed how much it actually cost, $60,000 per, as opposed to the $8,000 supposed cost, and it showed how many homes were bought as a result of the tax credit. It is determined to be a waste because all the folks who would have bought anyways are getting $8,000 of taxpayer money and the notion of supporting homes sales and prices through government subzidation will do neither in the long term.
 
Have you all seen this post on Lansner's blog:



http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/09/10/short-lived-rebound/35759/



It is regarding an interview with Refin's Glenn Kelman, summarized in this excerpt:



<strong>Glenn Kelman is boss of online-driven real estate brokerage Redfin.com, that concentrates on several key markets ? including Orange County. He tells ocregister.com in a podcast interview why the local housing market is currently hot, but without continued help ? such as extension of the $8,000 federal buyer incentive ? the current buying fever (especially at lower-price ranges) could cool and it would have been simply a short and wild ride.</strong>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1252634558][quote author="CM_Dude" date=1252633042]I just posted this question/opinion on another thread, so my apologies in advance for the dual posting, but this thread is a more appropriate venue.



Has there been any sort of quantification (even speculative) of the impact the $8,000 first time homebuyer credit is having on sales trends? It stands to reason that sales will drop precipitously once that expires.</blockquote>
Yeah, there is correlational eveidence that it has made a big impact on sales in the low to mid end market and the first time buyer market. When I run accross the charts, I will post them.</blockquote>


Thanks! I've read arguments similar to CR's, but would be interested in another take - if it exists. I've noticed a dearth of inventory in the sub-$500k coastal (including CM) market lately, and thought it may be partly because some buyers are stretching a little more to get in before the credit expires.
 
CR was saying there were 350,000 additional sales, but the $8,000 credit was given to over 2M "new" home buyers. However, I don't recall reading that it didn't ptop prices up as if someone was planning to buy a home anyway, they can still buy the same home for $8,000 more than they would have otherwise. So it might not have significantly impacted sells, it might have impacted the sales price.
 
Well, this thread proves how monumentally closed-minded you are.



I don't recall predicting the market at all, so it is a waste of your time. I have given more than enough facts to support everything I have said. I happen to think Irvine Renter made some serious and sloppy mistakes in several of his analysis posts, from his present value calculations to his overstating the default rate by 100%. It has fallen on deaf ears. Go check out the Shadow Inventory post where a reader agreed with me and called upon IR to fix his post. That is not going to happen, but it was nice to see that someone else cares about the truth.



Please challenge my facts as they come up instead of this lame sucker-punch and posting photos of dogs. The way you have gone about this says nothing about me and everything about you.
 
NS, I'd agree that I don't buy 100% of IR's analysis. However, even if the end result is not exactly what he said, the point is that shadow inventory is rising.



I don't care if a super dooper techinical analysis tells me it's a 5% drop or 10% gain. Nobody knows exactly what will happen. I do know what I believe in based on what I read here and elsewhere. My opinion is what matters to me as it will guide my future decisions.



You don't have to agree with everyone and people don't have to agree with you either. It's good and refreshing to get your perspective.
 
<blockquote>Well, this thread proves how monumentally closed-minded you are.</blockquote>


How does this thread prove that. I was actually being open minded I really wanted to see your perspective in full instead of piecing it together bit by bit.



<blockquote>I don't recall predicting the market at all, so it is a waste of your time. I have given more than enough facts to support everything I have said.</blockquote>


I have seen a lot of conjecture on your part with no facts or analysis to back up that conjecture. If all else fails you ask us to use our imagination.



<blockquote>I happen to think Irvine Renter made some serious and sloppy mistakes in several of his analysis posts, from his present value calculations to his overstating the default rate by 100%. It has fallen on deaf ears. Go check out the Shadow Inventory post where a reader agreed with me and called upon IR to fix his post. That is not going to happen, but it was nice to see that someone else cares about the truth.</blockquote>


I am almost positive that if you sent your data analysis in to IR and you were correct he would change his post. I have seen it in the past when his numbers have been incorrect and he corrects them and notes the correction.



<blockquote>Please challenge my facts as they come up instead of this lame sucker-punch and posting photos of dogs. The way you have gone about this says nothing about me and everything about you.</blockquote>


I have and you usually tap dance around the challenge that is why I asked you to give us a detailed analysis of your position.



I also don't think I have ever posted a picture of a dog. I have posted a pig with lipstick though.



Here is a dog chasing his tail which is what it is like posting to you.



<img src="http://careerowners.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/dog_chasing_tail-black.jpg" alt="" />
 
"How does this thread prove that. I was actually being open minded I really wanted to see your perspective in full instead of piecing it together bit by bit.'



What is it about my comments that require them to conform to one place when no one else is asked to do the same? I disagree with every single statement you have made about me. You are an angry little troll.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252650324]"How does this thread prove that. I was actually being open minded I really wanted to see your perspective in full instead of piecing it together bit by bit.'



What is it about my comments that require them to conform to one place when no one else is asked to do the same? I disagree with every single statement you have made about me. You are an angry little troll.</blockquote>


Don't worry NewportSkipper, there's no real new housing data coming out for awhile so they are just making their rounds on anyone that disagrees with their point of view. It's just a sign of desperation.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252650937][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252650324]"How does this thread prove that. I was actually being open minded I really wanted to see your perspective in full instead of piecing it together bit by bit.'



What is it about my comments that require them to conform to one place when no one else is asked to do the same? I disagree with every single statement you have made about me. You are an angry little troll.</blockquote>


Don't worry NewportSkipper, there's no real new housing data coming out for awhile so they are just making their rounds on anyone that disagrees with their point of view. It's just a sign of desperation.</blockquote>


Aren't new sales, and foreclosures happening on a daily basis? Isn't that how Mark Hanson makes a living?
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1252651558][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252650937][quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252650324]"How does this thread prove that. I was actually being open minded I really wanted to see your perspective in full instead of piecing it together bit by bit.'



What is it about my comments that require them to conform to one place when no one else is asked to do the same? I disagree with every single statement you have made about me. You are an angry little troll.</blockquote>


Don't worry NewportSkipper, there's no real new housing data coming out for awhile so they are just making their rounds on anyone that disagrees with their point of view. It's just a sign of desperation.</blockquote>


Aren't new sales, and foreclosures happening on a daily basis? Isn't that how Mark Hanson makes a living?</blockquote>


Yah, I just posted new sales and was called a "cheerleader" for doing it... and I'd be very surprised if a foreclosure is ever missed on this forum. I meant more significant data, quarterly numbers, S&P reports, etc.
 
Thank god you didn't leave, Robert. I was worried you had given in to the abuse.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252652447]Thank god you didn't leave, Robert. I was worried you had given in to the abuse.</blockquote>


Nope, just biting my tongue.
 
[quote author="NewportSkipper" date=1252650324]"How does this thread prove that. I was actually being open minded I really wanted to see your perspective in full instead of piecing it together bit by bit.'



What is it about my comments that require them to conform to one place when no one else is asked to do the same? I disagree with every single statement you have made about me. You are an angry little troll.</blockquote>


I never asked for you to conform I asked your perspective. If you take a jump over to the political section I am usually on the opposite end of conforming. I didn't demand that you share it I thought you may have an opposing view that you would want to share in full.



I guess you feel as though your body of work speaks for itself. If you cannot put together your views in a concise, thoughtful, verifiable format I understand.



I am not angry, I am short, but I am not a troll.



<img src="http://www.janbrett.com/images/mobile_troll.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="trrenter" date=1252622476]I want to open a thread to give you an opportunity to express your views and theories on the direction the housing market will go.



One of the reasons I have continued to read this blog is the well thought out Blog posts by IR and the other interesting verifiable information I get from other members.



Most of the predictions I have read, that were obviously based on much research, have been proven pretty accurate.



Here IR admits his prediction was wrong. <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/i-was-wrong-its-worse">I was wrong by IR.</a>



Any way I would like to know why you believe everything that is written here is wrong.



If you could spend some time and inform us from start to finish, with some hard data thrown in from credible sources, what you believe the future of the market is.



Do you think prices are now stabalized? If so why. Please don't point to what you think may happen, like Fannie will have a creative new mortgage tool that will solve the problem unless you can point me in a direction to get that loan today.



If you talk about how Loan mods will save the day I would like to see contradictory hard data that disproves what I have seen which is loan mods are not very effective.



In other words don't tell me ... you wait and see how this next group of loan mods works. I want to see verifiable proof that they work and what the net effect of those mods has on price stabalization.



I don't want to use my imagination, I want you to spend some time like IR and the rest of the members here and pull together some market research that proves out what you have been presenting in bits and pieces.</blockquote>


Seriously guys, is it a good idea to be starting threads explicitly for the purpose of calling out a particular member and his/her views? IMHO this is like school in summertime - no class.
 
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