Skek:
What's happening in Crystal Cove right now is a complete slowdown in home sales, which is placing pressure on sellers now, throughout 2008, and 2009 to lower asking prices, or price aggressively if they truly are set on selling their home. Yes homes are are still selling, but I've noticed its just been the larger homes atleast the first quarter of 2008. Currently there are 35 active properties via the MLS for sale right now in CC, plus the other two home builders up at the top(Standard Pacific the Tides, and John Laing Sea Point) who do not cooperate with the MLS who probably each have 1-3 homes currently for sale outside the MLS. The homebuilders are pricing aggressively, much more-so than the re-sale market in CC. I believe they are pricing in the $700 sq.ft. range but don't hold me to that. Even with that said, sales have slowed in both Tides and SeaPoint. I wouldn't be surprised to see SeaPoint hold off for the time being on building their next two phases of homes. Most re-sale homes are not selling because the owners are asking way too much, north of $1,000sq.ft. when they should really be priced well under $1,000 a sq.ft. if they want to sell in this market. There are always a few trophy locations that can command that high $/Sq.Ft., but i can't help but laugh when most if not all of the 35 homes currently listed by sellers right now are all listed at trophy prices. Back in early 2006 they most likely could have gotten there homes sold at their asking prices, not the case in this market - the boat has passed and they're free to list at whatever prices they want, but goodluck selling the home. I would estimate a 5-8% decline in home prices in 2007 in CC, a rather mild decline compared to all of NC. I have my opinions as to why that is.
Currently there are two seascape homes (seascape is one of the many tracts within crystal cove, they are the smaller homes, the homes you see when your driving down PCH and look just up behind the Promenade shopping center) for sale priced at or just under $800 a sq.ft. and even those homes have yet to sell. Of course there are also the other 3 or 4 seascape or seabourn homes that are around $1,000sq.ft. for sale.
Here is a breakdown of home sales by quarters in Crystal Cove
1/1/2008 - 4/2/2008 - 6 (all 6 of these homes were bigger homes, i.e. 4,300sq.ft+)
1/1/2007- 4/2/2007 - 5 (all 5 of these homes were smaller homes, i.e. 3,800sq.ft. or less)
1/1/2006 - 4/2/2006 - 2
1/1/2005 - 4/2/2005 - 10
1/1/2004 - 4/2/2004 - 8
If i can remember correctly it was not until the beginning of 2006 that Crystal Cove started having 25+ homes for sale at any given time in the MLS.
Rollback pricing is difficult to comp in CC because different tracts were built in all different years.
However if you take Seascape and Seabourn as an example (built in 2001) these homes need to roll back to 2004,2005 before you see activity start to pick up here.
Crystal Cove is a great place to live. Unique location (in-between cdm and laguna beach), easy access to the beach, shops, stores, and restaurants. But it still overpriced for the time being.
socalmd:
I will go out on the limb and say the marjority of homeowners living in the $3.0m home region in Crystal Cove (which are most likely seascape and seabourn homes) originally purchased around $1.3-1.5m when purchased new from the builder around 2001. A non view new home from the builder could have been had for under $1.0m back in 2001. The Seabourn and Seascape original owners were selling for $3.0m (or more or a little less) during the peak, not the case today.
Then there are the owners who spent around $2.6-$3.0m on a new Whitesails home (built by Taylor Woodrow in 2003/2004, these are the 4,800-5,500sq.ft. homes) These homes were selling in the high 4's to mid 5's. Not the case today.
$10 home is going to be a custom home. Spending $3.5m on the lot, and another $500-$800 a square foot approximately to build the house, and the customs are usually minimum 5,500 square feet. One being built right now in CC is about 17,000sq.ft.(liveable)
Middle Easterns, Asians, and White people make up the majority of Newport Coast, including Crystal Cove.