The unemployment rate in the Orange County was 9.5 percent in July 2009, up from a revised
9.3 percent in June 2009, and above the year-ago estimate of 5.6 percent. This compares with
an unadjusted unemployment rate of 12.1 percent for California and 9.7 percent for the nation
during the same period.
Between June 2009 and July 2009, total nonfarm wage and salary employment declined from
1,424,400 to 1,416,500, a loss of 7,900 jobs.
• Government posted the largest month-over decrease with an overall loss of 6,400 jobs.
Federal employment added 300 jobs, while state government lost 1,800 jobs, largely due
to summer cutbacks in state government education. Local government declined by
4,900 jobs overall, with gains in county and city government being offset by a loss of
7,200 jobs in local government education due in part to employment cutbacks during the
summer recess.
• Educational and health services declined by 1,000 jobs with losses of 600 jobs in
educational services and 400 jobs in ambulatory health care services.
• Professional and business services reported an overall loss of 900 jobs. Scattered gains
and losses balanced out in professional, scientific and technical services. Management
of companies declined by 300 jobs and the administrative and support services sector,
which includes temporary help firms, lost 600 jobs.
• Leisure and hospitality expanded by 1,100 jobs overall as the employers continued
ramping up employment for the summer tourist season. Construction added 600 jobs
overall during the month, led by advances in specialty trade contractors.
Between July 2008 and July 2009, total nonfarm wage and salary employment declined by
68,000, or 4.6 percent.
• Trade, transportation, and utilities reported the largest year-over decrease with an
overall loss of 18,700 jobs. Over 51 percent of the decline was reported in retail trade
(down 9,600 jobs), 44 percent was in wholesale trade (down 8,200 jobs) and 5 percent
occurred in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (down 900 jobs).
• Construction payrolls declined by 13,100 jobs over the year. While cutbacks occurred in
every sector, 80 percent of the job losses were in the specialty trade contractors sector.
• Professional and business services posted a loss of 11,800 jobs with 57 percent of the
decline in administrative and support services, which includes temporary help firms.
We are now at a job level between 2002 and 2003. In other words, the job level we are at for July is less than 2003, but higher than 2002. Adjusting for population growth, then we are job levels that make the 90s look like good times. Even the health/education sector is this close to turning negative YOY. There isn't a single month in the 90s or the 00s recession that has ever happened.
Professional and business services (when 70% of the economy is based on consumer spending and the services that come with it, it shouldn't be a surprise when this number drops, even though CSUF predicted growth in this sector) is down to 2004 levels. Really it has been stagnant since 2000 now, but again adjusting for population growth it is even worse, and it probably makes the 90s look like good times.
This sucks, and this is the one thing I really wish I could have been wrong about. Because these numbers are now way worse than I had ever expected, and unfortunately it does not look like it is improving anytime soon. Remember... flat job growth is really negative job growth.