New communities in Portola Springs

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
This is the one I mentioned earlier. It's a small lot with a mountain view. The agent made a Youtube video saying they would list it for ~$3.6M as soon as they got the keys from IP. $3.6M for a mountain view is ridiculous, but I guess some fool is going to buy it. 😂
Any guesses as to what the builder closing price was? How much is this speculator thinking they will net?
 
This is the one I mentioned earlier. It's a small lot with a mountain view. The agent made a Youtube video saying they would list it for ~$3.6M as soon as they got the keys from IP. $3.6M for a mountain view is ridiculous, but I guess some fool is going to buy it. 😂
Doesn't even have that many upgrades inside such as the glass stair rail, waterfall edge island, hardwood flooring on stairs and second floor, etc.! @CalBears96 what is the base price for the Cielo view lots by Shea now? Also how does the Shea design center compare with the IP design center in terms of options and pricing for the upgrades?
 
This is the one I mentioned earlier. It's a small lot with a mountain view. The agent made a Youtube video saying they would list it for ~$3.6M as soon as they got the keys from IP. $3.6M for a mountain view is ridiculous, but I guess some fool is going to buy it. 😂
Such a joke lol....
 
Doesn't even have that many upgrades inside such as the glass stair rail, waterfall edge island, hardwood flooring on stairs and second floor, etc.! @CalBears96 what is the base price for the Cielo view lots by Shea now? Also how does the Shea design center compare with the IP design center in terms of options and pricing for the upgrades?
Yeah, it pretty much doesn't have much upgrades.

The first phase released by Shea was Phase 7 (they're using IP phase release). View lots won't be released until Phase 13 and the remaining view lots in Cielo are all city view, so who know what it will be by then. Maybe $4M? Olivewood is already already at $3.7M, but those are smaller homes (Olivewood Plan 3 is as big as Cielo Plan 1) and they're tiny lots too. But Olivewood does have superior view though, being at the top of PS.

In terms of design center options, Shea is better in some areas and worse in others, so I would say it's a wash. In terms of pricing, Shea is more expensive than IP. But the price they charged for the glass stair rail is quite reasonable at $25k. I had the guy who did my Bluffs glass stair rail come to the model home to do a quote and he quoted $27k. He couldn't believe Shea only charged $25k. But I guess Shea saved money from the wood rail and also doesn't need extra labor to remove the wood rail also.

For the Sub-Zero built-in fridge, they originally charged $16,935, but after I showed the designer the MSRP from Sub-Zero's website, which is $14,830, she sent it to whoever doing the pricing, and when we met again to continue with upgrades, they actually lowered the price to $13,760. So we chose that upgrade as well. All the Cielo buyers should thank me for that. 😂
 
Yeah, it pretty much doesn't have much upgrades.

The first phase released by Shea was Phase 7 (they're using IP phase release). View lots won't be released until Phase 13 and the remaining view lots in Cielo are all city view, so who know what it will be by then. Maybe $4M? Olivewood is already already at $3.7M, but those are smaller homes (Olivewood Plan 3 is as big as Cielo Plan 1) and they're tiny lots too. But Olivewood does have superior view though, being at the top of PS.

In terms of design center options, Shea is better in some areas and worse in others, so I would say it's a wash. In terms of pricing, Shea is more expensive than IP. But the price they charged for the glass stair rail is quite reasonable at $25k. I had the guy who did my Bluffs glass stair rail come to the model home to do a quote and he quoted $27k. He couldn't believe Shea only charged $25k. But I guess Shea saved money from the wood rail and also doesn't need extra labor to remove the wood rail also.

For the Sub-Zero built-in fridge, they originally charged $16,935, but after I showed the designer the MSRP from Sub-Zero's website, which is $14,830, she sent it to whoever doing the pricing, and when we met again to continue with upgrades, they actually lowered the price to $13,760. So we chose that upgrade as well. All the Cielo buyers should thank me for that. 😂
Based on how the builder pricing is currently going, maybe they will list the city view lots close to $5M like at Ravello. Some of the builders charge a lot for the upgrades through their design studios and am glad that you were able to bring down their price of the Sub-Zero upgrade 🤣

Irvine is a strong market and I doubt that prices will go down for new builds especially not until the FCB's stop buying in Irvine which I don't see happening anytime soon.
 
Sure I remember it. It has nothing to do with this thread.

@usctrojancpa made an unsupported statement about Irvine that I demonstrated was incorrect using real data. Even lowly Santa Ana outperformed Irvine.... Sad!

And meanwhile you've been sweating losing your parents' down payment money for years now. Has the stress really been worth it?

LL, just admit you were wrong. I kept telling everyone, watch inventory levels as they will determine the direction of prices. Even 8% interest rates couldn't keep prices falling in Irvine and the rest of Orange County. And now that interest rates are rolling over, watch how more buyers are going to step back into the market to buy in 2024/2025 but inventory levels won't be materially up and what do you think that will cause home prices to do?
 
Based on how the builder pricing is currently going, maybe they will list the city view lots close to $5M like at Ravello. Some of the builders charge a lot for the upgrades through their design studios and am glad that you were able to bring down their price of the Sub-Zero upgrade 🤣

Irvine is a strong market and I doubt that prices will go down for new builds especially not until the FCB's stop buying in Irvine which I don't see happening anytime soon.
Mortgage rates have started dropping and will drop even more by the time they start listing the view lots. I'm expecting Phase 13 to be released April/May time frame. The Fed hinted at 3 cuts in 2024, and that's if we get a soft landing. If we go into recession instead, there will be 5-6 cuts. And as Martin said, even as the rates come down, inventory still levels won't increase materially, which will create a higher demand than supply.

Real estate in China is in a shit hole right now. FCBs have to park their money somewhere, so they won't go anywhere any time soon.

So yes, $5M for city view lots is quite likely.
 
There are a few low cost/low margin lenders today showing FHA / VA Streamline Refi's at 5.99 for zero cost. Conventional conforming refi's are still mid 6's, no cost. Purchase Jumbo's are in the mid 6's through banks, higher through brokers and mortgage bankers. With a coming refinance wave, lenders will not be that quick to lower rates because of early payoff expenses. One might refi at 6.5 in December, then 6.0 in January (in a perfect world....) making the first loan a loser, and the January loan a likely refinance at 5.75 or lower. Lenders know this will happen and withhold reducing rates immediately when their margins start to improve.

Three Fed rate eases do not translate always into incredibly lower mortgage rates. Assuming the first cut will be .25, that might move mortgages higher because the market wanted a .50 Fed rate cut! All in all 2024 should have average pricing for high quality buyers in the low 5's, unless things really take a turn for the worse. At that time we'll see 4 handle rates with it nearly impossible to get your loan closed on time due to volume. An application with the builders lender is wise, as is one other with a professional you've worked with in the past, or recommended by your Realtor. You've got roughly 60 days prior to closing to make the commitment with a new home build. May the sharpest deal win for you!
 
Sure I remember it. It has nothing to do with this thread.

@usctrojancpa made an unsupported statement about Irvine that I demonstrated was incorrect using real data. Even lowly Santa Ana outperformed Irvine.... Sad!

And meanwhile you've been sweating losing your parents' down payment money for years now. Has the stress really been worth it?
LL, as an example is:
5% of $100,000 (Santa Ana) better than 2% of $500,000 (Irvine) when it comes to appreciation of your primary home?

Even USCTrojans is now dunking on you.
I want you to see this image again.
 

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There are a few low cost/low margin lenders today showing FHA / VA Streamline Refi's at 5.99 for zero cost. Conventional conforming refi's are still mid 6's, no cost. Purchase Jumbo's are in the mid 6's through banks, higher through brokers and mortgage bankers. With a coming refinance wave, lenders will not be that quick to lower rates because of early payoff expenses. One might refi at 6.5 in December, then 6.0 in January (in a perfect world....) making the first loan a loser, and the January loan a likely refinance at 5.75 or lower. Lenders know this will happen and withhold reducing rates immediately when their margins start to improve.

Three Fed rate eases do not translate always into incredibly lower mortgage rates. Assuming the first cut will be .25, that might move mortgages higher because the market wanted a .50 Fed rate cut! All in all 2024 should have average pricing for high quality buyers in the low 5's, unless things really take a turn for the worse. At that time we'll see 4 handle rates with it nearly impossible to get your loan closed on time due to volume. An application with the builders lender is wise, as is one other with a professional you've worked with in the past, or recommended by your Realtor. You've got roughly 60 days prior to closing to make the commitment with a new home build. May the sharpest deal win for you!
what many here fail to comprehend is Powell is ok with money going into the market as that doesn't impact inflation but rising housing prices do. Expect spreads to stay where they're at or even widen as the dot plot starts to play out. I don't see rates going below 5.5% ayt t he very lowest ever again unless unemployment goes to 7% in which case we'll have lots of inventory.

For recent Irvine buyers the real risk is Trump or even Newsom banning Chinese nationals from buying property.
 
Any guesses as to what the builder closing price was? How much is this speculator thinking they will net?

I tried to look up the address but the County has not populated it yet. Knowing what one of my clients paid for a view lot earlier this year (got into contract in Fall 2022), I'm 100% sure that seller paid less than $3m.
 
what many here fail to comprehend is Powell is ok with money going into the market as that doesn't impact inflation but rising housing prices do. Expect spreads to stay where they're at or even widen as the dot plot starts to play out. I don't see rates going below 5.5% ayt t he very lowest ever again unless unemployment goes to 7% in which case we'll have lots of inventory.

For recent Irvine buyers the real risk is Trump or even Newsom banning Chinese nationals from buying property.

Rates were around 4% right before COVID and I expect that we'll see a 4 handle at some point in the next few years. The Fed will slow the economy down and will continue with the QT even with the rate cuts. As Powell said, inflation was more of a supply issue than it was a huge demand issue (we can see that in the real estate market with the lack of resale inventory).
 
I tried to look up the address but the County has not populated it yet. Knowing what one of my clients paid for a view lot earlier this year (got into contract in Fall 2022), I'm 100% sure that seller paid less than $3m.
I have the price sheet for 119 Sunnyslope and it was $2.9M. They got into contract in April 2023. Don't know if they did any upgrades, but seems like they did some landscaping, but yeah, they paid less than $3M.
 
I have the price sheet for 119 Sunnyslope and it was $2.9M. They got into contract in April 2023. Don't know if they did any upgrades, but seems like they did some landscaping, but yeah, they paid less than $3M.
Wow. I can't really see any easily identifiable upgrades either. Maybe the counter & backsplash? Also unsure if that rectangular tile is standard or not. Either way, it's not very upgraded for that price...but if someone grabs it then good for them for getting that crazy amount I guess.
 
LL, just admit you were wrong. I kept telling everyone, watch inventory levels as they will determine the direction of prices. Even 8% interest rates couldn't keep prices falling in Irvine and the rest of Orange County. And now that interest rates are rolling over, watch how more buyers are going to step back into the market to buy in 2024/2025 but inventory levels won't be materially up and what do you think that will cause home prices to do?
You bought a multi-million dollar home at the worst possible moment. That's fine but it means you aren't seeing clearly on Irvine any longer. You need me to be wrong, but the facts say otherwise.
 
LL, as an example is:
5% of $100,000 (Santa Ana) better than 2% of $500,000 (Irvine) when it comes to appreciation of your primary home?

Even USCTrojans is now dunking on you.
I want you to see this image again.
This is moving the goal posts. @usctrojancpa claimed that Irvine outperformed "most all" cities. I then proceeded to show that Laguna, Newport, and even lowly Santa Ana must not be included in "most all" cities because they destroyed Irvine in terms of appreciation.
 
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