Mortgage Forbearance

[sgip]

@Sleepy5136

True, California home values dropped by 30% during the GFC.

Now do Irvine.

True: "We don't need backstops..."

True also: We don't need backstops, but backstops are never going away.

Finally, During the 1978-1981 crash, the 1991-1994 crash, and the 2006-20010 crash, I've see one true thing: Few if any will give up their home. Even when every economic and legal pathway is a zero, fight they will to stay in a property.

It is unrealistic based on history and human nature to believe that if backstops were pulled people would consider renting as the best option before them.

My .02c

 

[sleepy5136]

The can will be kicked forever, because death is the other choice.

The million dollar question is who will swallow that debt? The Fed? The banks? The landlords? It definitely won't be the renters.. And depending on who takes the hit, it may have severe consequences to the economy.

That?s easy, ultimately it?s Joe Taxpayer.  The result will be higher taxes, more inflation, and a US dollar that is worth less than less.

if that is the case, which most likely will be the case, then its only going to impact the middle to low income tax payers more so than the rich. Further increasing the wealth gap even more. Not trying to be political here but that would only cause more issues down the line that needs to be addressed. LA is already running into this issue and its even more of a dump now. Sooner or later it will get to a point where you have rich people wanting to escape because there are going to be too many homeless in areas that don't have homeless currently AKA OC.

 

[sleepy5136]

@Sleepy5136

True, California home values dropped by 30% during the GFC.

Now do Irvine.

True: "We don't need backstops..."

True also: We don't need backstops, but backstops are never going away.

Finally, During the 1978-1981 crash, the 1991-1994 crash, and the 2006-20010 crash, I've see one true thing: Few if any will give up their home. Even when every economic and legal pathway is a zero, fight they will to stay in a property.

It is unrealistic based on history and human nature to believe that if backstops were pulled people would consider renting as the best option before them.

My .02c

I'm not quite sure what you mean by "Now do Irvine", but if the point is that Irvine wasn't impacted, I would think you need to take a look at it as not only Irvine, but the entire state and even country. If lets say the tax payers are going to need to pay for the unpaid rent/mortgage that has been accumulating since last year, it will impact the middle to lower income tax payers. And if that happens, places where there are no homeless will have homeless. You think Irvine won't be impacted in the future? I wouldn't guarantee it tbh. We can't simply think of Irvine and assume it will not impact Irvine in the future.

As for your point about history of people not wanting to give up their homes, it doesn't matter what they want. Look at the housing crash in 2006-2010 like you said, people ended up having no choice but to lose their homes and are forced to rent. If you want to look at history and use that as an argument, you can also say that a housing crash can happen like 2008 but it might be different. Once that happens, it will not matter. People will lose their homes and will be forced to rent if they cannot afford the payments.

 

[usctrojancpa]

The can will be kicked forever, because death is the other choice.

The million dollar question is who will swallow that debt? The Fed? The banks? The landlords? It definitely won't be the renters.. And depending on who takes the hit, it may have severe consequences to the economy.

That?s easy, ultimately it?s Joe Taxpayer.  The result will be higher taxes, more inflation, and a US dollar that is worth less than less.

if that is the case, which most likely will be the case, then its only going to impact the middle to low income tax payers more so than the rich. Further increasing the wealth gap even more. Not trying to be political here but that would only cause more issues down the line that needs to be addressed. LA is already running into this issue and its even more of a dump now. Sooner or later it will get to a point where you have rich people wanting to escape because there are going to be too many homeless in areas that don't have homeless currently AKA OC.

First they'll (CA and Federal gov't) raise taxes on the "rich" and then they'll be additional taxes like higher sales tax, higher gas tax, and maybe even a wealth tax of some sort.  I could see the gov't implementing a VAT tax like Europe has on luxury good purchases over a certain dollar amount in the future as well.

 

[usctrojancpa]

@Sleepy5136

True, California home values dropped by 30% during the GFC.

Now do Irvine.

True: "We don't need backstops..."

True also: We don't need backstops, but backstops are never going away.

Finally, During the 1978-1981 crash, the 1991-1994 crash, and the 2006-20010 crash, I've see one true thing: Few if any will give up their home. Even when every economic and legal pathway is a zero, fight they will to stay in a property.

It is unrealistic based on history and human nature to believe that if backstops were pulled people would consider renting as the best option before them.

My .02c

I'm not quite sure what you mean by "Now do Irvine", but if the point is that Irvine wasn't impacted, I would think you need to take a look at it as not only Irvine, but the entire state and even country. If lets say the tax payers are going to need to pay for the unpaid rent/mortgage that has been accumulating since last year, it will impact the middle to lower income tax payers. And if that happens, places where there are no homeless will have homeless. You think Irvine won't be impacted in the future? I wouldn't guarantee it tbh. We can't simply think of Irvine and assume it will not impact Irvine in the future.

As for your point about history of people not wanting to give up their homes, it doesn't matter what they want. Look at the housing crash in 2006-2010 like you said, people ended up having no choice but to lose their homes and are forced to rent. If you want to look at history and use that as an argument, you can also say that a housing crash can happen like 2008 but it might be different. Once that happens, it will not matter. People will lose their homes and will be forced to rent if they cannot afford the payments.

Irvine was different and will continue to be different than the surrounding cities in terms of appreciation and price declines.  Irvine prices on average decreased on average about 25% from peak to trough during the 2006 to 2011 while surrounding cities decreased from 40% to 50%.  Irvine prices recovered their peak prices many years before the surrounding cities and homes have appreciated at a higher pace.  There are many reasons why Irvine is more desirable than other surrounding cities and that is what drives prices. When we have the next downturn in real estate, Irvine will outperform the surrounding cities again. There are tons of buyers who are waiting for a 5% or 10% price drop in Irvine to buy but may or may not come in the foreseeable future.

 

[eyephone]

The can will be kicked forever, because death is the other choice.

The million dollar question is who will swallow that debt? The Fed? The banks? The landlords? It definitely won't be the renters.. And depending on who takes the hit, it may have severe consequences to the economy.

That%u2019s easy, ultimately it%u2019s Joe Taxpayer.  The result will be higher taxes, more inflation, and a US dollar that is worth less than less.

if that is the case, which most likely will be the case, then its only going to impact the middle to low income tax payers more so than the rich. Further increasing the wealth gap even more. Not trying to be political here but that would only cause more issues down the line that needs to be addressed. LA is already running into this issue and its even more of a dump now. Sooner or later it will get to a point where you have rich people wanting to escape because there are going to be too many homeless in areas that don't have homeless currently AKA OC.

First they'll (CA and Federal gov't) raise taxes on the "rich" and then they'll be additional taxes like higher sales tax, higher gas tax, and maybe even a wealth tax of some sort.  I could see the gov't implementing a VAT tax like Europe has on luxury good purchases over a certain dollar amount in the future as well.

But who started this program and PPp? Trump
Really socialist programs. The PPP did you require business to repay loans to taxpayers including interest like the TARP program.

 

[usctrojancpa]

The can will be kicked forever, because death is the other choice.

The million dollar question is who will swallow that debt? The Fed? The banks? The landlords? It definitely won't be the renters.. And depending on who takes the hit, it may have severe consequences to the economy.

That%u2019s easy, ultimately it%u2019s Joe Taxpayer.  The result will be higher taxes, more inflation, and a US dollar that is worth less than less.

if that is the case, which most likely will be the case, then its only going to impact the middle to low income tax payers more so than the rich. Further increasing the wealth gap even more. Not trying to be political here but that would only cause more issues down the line that needs to be addressed. LA is already running into this issue and its even more of a dump now. Sooner or later it will get to a point where you have rich people wanting to escape because there are going to be too many homeless in areas that don't have homeless currently AKA OC.

First they'll (CA and Federal gov't) raise taxes on the "rich" and then they'll be additional taxes like higher sales tax, higher gas tax, and maybe even a wealth tax of some sort.  I could see the gov't implementing a VAT tax like Europe has on luxury good purchases over a certain dollar amount in the future as well.

But who started this program and PPp? Trump

Last I checked, the stimulus bills were voted for by both parties.  CA will be the first one to increase taxes and I can see it becoming effective in 2022. 

 

[eyephone]

The can will be kicked forever, because death is the other choice.

The million dollar question is who will swallow that debt? The Fed? The banks? The landlords? It definitely won't be the renters.. And depending on who takes the hit, it may have severe consequences to the economy.

That%u2019s easy, ultimately it%u2019s Joe Taxpayer.  The result will be higher taxes, more inflation, and a US dollar that is worth less than less.

if that is the case, which most likely will be the case, then its only going to impact the middle to low income tax payers more so than the rich. Further increasing the wealth gap even more. Not trying to be political here but that would only cause more issues down the line that needs to be addressed. LA is already running into this issue and its even more of a dump now. Sooner or later it will get to a point where you have rich people wanting to escape because there are going to be too many homeless in areas that don't have homeless currently AKA OC.

First they'll (CA and Federal gov't) raise taxes on the "rich" and then they'll be additional taxes like higher sales tax, higher gas tax, and maybe even a wealth tax of some sort.  I could see the gov't implementing a VAT tax like Europe has on luxury good purchases over a certain dollar amount in the future as well.

But who started this program and PPp? Trump

Last I checked, the stimulus bills were voted for by both parties.  CA will be the first one to increase taxes and I can see it becoming effective in 2022.

Repay back the tax payers with the PPP loan! (If any that was borrowed)
I hear some people are now asking if business took the PPp loan.

 

[eyephone]

Sorry but people are fed up with the double standard. Calling the left socialist but under trump he gave free money to farmers for not selling anything, he rolled out the PPP program where business did not repay the tax payers, he endorsed the mortgage forbearance program.

 

[eyephone]

I think also people that own a house. They should consider that if it reaches to the next level of panic you possibly might not get the money you are looking for.

 

[eyephone]

So the conversation shifted from what if?s and theory about housing. But when I gave facts that people are getting pinched losing more a lot of money. Actual stories of people that own investment properties. Then the conversation went to the government is going to raise taxes.
But if the government raises taxes comment. That does nothing for the person that own investment property.

 

[sleepy5136]

The can will be kicked forever, because death is the other choice.

The million dollar question is who will swallow that debt? The Fed? The banks? The landlords? It definitely won't be the renters.. And depending on who takes the hit, it may have severe consequences to the economy.

That?s easy, ultimately it?s Joe Taxpayer.  The result will be higher taxes, more inflation, and a US dollar that is worth less than less.

if that is the case, which most likely will be the case, then its only going to impact the middle to low income tax payers more so than the rich. Further increasing the wealth gap even more. Not trying to be political here but that would only cause more issues down the line that needs to be addressed. LA is already running into this issue and its even more of a dump now. Sooner or later it will get to a point where you have rich people wanting to escape because there are going to be too many homeless in areas that don't have homeless currently AKA OC.

First they'll (CA and Federal gov't) raise taxes on the "rich" and then they'll be additional taxes like higher sales tax, higher gas tax, and maybe even a wealth tax of some sort.  I could see the gov't implementing a VAT tax like Europe has on luxury good purchases over a certain dollar amount in the future as well.

Until the government changes the tax laws, the rich WILL NEVER be taxed. Do you know how many tax loop holes exists currently? You really think the government will tax the rich? You think congress would let that happen? Did we forget what happened in 2008 when the banks screwed over homeowners? Who paid the bill for that? The "rich"? It will always be the small guy that foots the bill and that needs to change. I really hope we don't have the small guys pay for the upcoming eviction and mortgage forbearance bill as well. Its complete BS.

 

[sleepy5136]

The can will be kicked forever, because death is the other choice.

The million dollar question is who will swallow that debt? The Fed? The banks? The landlords? It definitely won't be the renters.. And depending on who takes the hit, it may have severe consequences to the economy.

That%u2019s easy, ultimately it%u2019s Joe Taxpayer.  The result will be higher taxes, more inflation, and a US dollar that is worth less than less.

if that is the case, which most likely will be the case, then its only going to impact the middle to low income tax payers more so than the rich. Further increasing the wealth gap even more. Not trying to be political here but that would only cause more issues down the line that needs to be addressed. LA is already running into this issue and its even more of a dump now. Sooner or later it will get to a point where you have rich people wanting to escape because there are going to be too many homeless in areas that don't have homeless currently AKA OC.

First they'll (CA and Federal gov't) raise taxes on the "rich" and then they'll be additional taxes like higher sales tax, higher gas tax, and maybe even a wealth tax of some sort.  I could see the gov't implementing a VAT tax like Europe has on luxury good purchases over a certain dollar amount in the future as well.

But who started this program and PPp? Trump

Last I checked, the stimulus bills were voted for by both parties.  CA will be the first one to increase taxes and I can see it becoming effective in 2022.

Increase taxes for the small guys. And even then, the rich will not be touched. Increasing the wealth gap even more. We cannot be ignorant and act like Irvine will never be touched. Sooner or later, it will be impacted if the wealth gap continues to increase. It will get so bad to the point where nice areas like Irvine will start to have homeless around begging for money.

 

[usctrojancpa]

The can will be kicked forever, because death is the other choice.

The million dollar question is who will swallow that debt? The Fed? The banks? The landlords? It definitely won't be the renters.. And depending on who takes the hit, it may have severe consequences to the economy.

That?s easy, ultimately it?s Joe Taxpayer.  The result will be higher taxes, more inflation, and a US dollar that is worth less than less.

if that is the case, which most likely will be the case, then its only going to impact the middle to low income tax payers more so than the rich. Further increasing the wealth gap even more. Not trying to be political here but that would only cause more issues down the line that needs to be addressed. LA is already running into this issue and its even more of a dump now. Sooner or later it will get to a point where you have rich people wanting to escape because there are going to be too many homeless in areas that don't have homeless currently AKA OC.

First they'll (CA and Federal gov't) raise taxes on the "rich" and then they'll be additional taxes like higher sales tax, higher gas tax, and maybe even a wealth tax of some sort.  I could see the gov't implementing a VAT tax like Europe has on luxury good purchases over a certain dollar amount in the future as well.

Until the government changes the tax laws, the rich WILL NEVER be taxed. Do you know how many tax loop holes exists currently? You really think the government will tax the rich? You think congress would let that happen? Did we forget what happened in 2008 when the banks screwed over homeowners? Who paid the bill for that? The "rich"? It will always be the small guy that foots the bill and that needs to change. I really hope we don't have the small guys pay for the upcoming eviction and mortgage forbearance bill as well. Its complete BS.

When you rich I think you mean the uber filthy rich because under the general definition there's probably a significant number of hard working folks on here that are considered "rich" by CA and the federal gov't. The uber filthy rich have more power to lobby to get politicians to do what favors them.  The increase of taxes will mainly burden the lower middle class to the upper middle class the most.

 

[usctrojancpa]

The can will be kicked forever, because death is the other choice.

The million dollar question is who will swallow that debt? The Fed? The banks? The landlords? It definitely won't be the renters.. And depending on who takes the hit, it may have severe consequences to the economy.

That%u2019s easy, ultimately it%u2019s Joe Taxpayer.  The result will be higher taxes, more inflation, and a US dollar that is worth less than less.

if that is the case, which most likely will be the case, then its only going to impact the middle to low income tax payers more so than the rich. Further increasing the wealth gap even more. Not trying to be political here but that would only cause more issues down the line that needs to be addressed. LA is already running into this issue and its even more of a dump now. Sooner or later it will get to a point where you have rich people wanting to escape because there are going to be too many homeless in areas that don't have homeless currently AKA OC.

First they'll (CA and Federal gov't) raise taxes on the "rich" and then they'll be additional taxes like higher sales tax, higher gas tax, and maybe even a wealth tax of some sort.  I could see the gov't implementing a VAT tax like Europe has on luxury good purchases over a certain dollar amount in the future as well.

But who started this program and PPp? Trump

Last I checked, the stimulus bills were voted for by both parties.  CA will be the first one to increase taxes and I can see it becoming effective in 2022.

Increase taxes for the small guys. And even then, the rich will not be touched. Increasing the wealth gap even more. We cannot be ignorant and act like Irvine will never be touched. Sooner or later, it will be impacted if the wealth gap continues to increase. It will get so bad to the point where nice areas like Irvine will start to have homeless around begging for money.

Irvine is a bit of a rare bird because of the fact that about 1/3 transactions are with all cash. Cities like Tustin, Lake Forest, Orange, Costa Mesa, Aliso Viejo, etc have a significantly lower % of all cash transactions. This is why Irvine home prices are weathered the downside better and outperformed on the upside and this trend will continue into the future.

 

[nosuchreality]

I'm still stuck on banks screwed homeowners in 2008.

Yea CDOs are a bit slimy but there is a whole gravy train of people at that trough with the Government pumping the everybody should be allowed in the pool.

Its like the Robinhood app. Make it available to everybody with minimal requirements then complain when they can't met those minimal requirement due to wild volatility in their customer pool. Making RH meet more stringent requirements would mean they never opened.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

I'm still stuck on banks screwed homeowners in 2008.

Yea CDOs are a bit slimy but there is a whole gravy train of people at that trough with the Government pumping the everybody should be allowed in the pool.

Its like the Robinhood app. Make it available to everybody with minimal requirements then complain when they can't met those minmal requirement due to wild volatility in their customer pool. Making RH !eet morecstringent requirements would mean they never opened.

Plenty of blame to go around in 2008...Banks basically abdicated their duties to its shareholders, investors, and community as a whole by ignoring risk and having zero brakes in the system. 

Feds opened the floodgates and refused to put any restrictions in place re lending.

Credit agencies...LOL.

Homeowners/buyers...many spent like drunken sailors but there were definitely plenty who were ignorant and got into mortgages that they should not have. 

 

[eyephone]

I'm still stuck on banks screwed homeowners in 2008.

Yea CDOs are a bit slimy but there is a whole gravy train of people at that trough with the Government pumping the everybody should be allowed in the pool.

Its like the Robinhood app. Make it available to everybody with minimal requirements then complain when they can't met those minmal requirement due to wild volatility in their customer pool. Making RH !eet morecstringent requirements would mean they never opened.

Plenty of blame to go around in 2008...Banks basically abdicated their duties to its shareholders, investors, and community as a whole by ignoring risk and having zero brakes in the system. 

Feds opened the floodgates and refused to put any restrictions in place re lending.

Credit agencies...LOL.

Homeowners/buyers...many spent like drunken sailors but there were definitely plenty who were ignorant and got into mortgages that they should not have.

In 2008: waiter that own 3 homes or more, the get rich flip the property was the preferred occupation, income verification was a huge problem, agents/loan brokers played along or maybe even to blame idk

 

[Irvinecommuter]

In 2008: waiter that own 3 homes or more, the get rich flip the property was the preferred occupation, income verification was a huge problem, agents/loan brokers played along or maybe even to blame idk

Like I said...plenty of blame to go around.  Banks have a fiduciary duty to its investors and SH to make prudent and proper business decision...risks was ignored and moved off of the books by banks...credit agency rubber stamped every decision.

 

[nosuchreality]

The CDOs were in demand products.  Banks were in the business of packaging the product. 

It's like McDonald's selling Big Macs.  When the local franchisee figures out 90% of his business is the same 10% of people buying the large Big Mac meal everyday, he might think buying Pharmaceutical stock making Cholesterol and Diabetes meds is a good idea.

Taking Big Macs off the menu isn't the go to solution.