More Homes Being Listed - Irvine

kpatnps said:
sell4u said:
Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS

So 2018 has a 23% increase in inventory compared to 2017.  What would also be telling is the trajectory of this increase.  I saw Steve Thomas' report on housing and it seems the acceleration is quite significant suggesting this may increase more in the following months.  Any thoughts? 

Not sure if it's significant acceleration vs bouncing off the bottom of low inventory #'s. I haven't seen Irvine go farther than the low 700's in the past few years. 
Orange County Active Properties
7/18 - 6367
7/17 - 5716
7/16 - 7028
7/15 - 6711

 
Rizdak said:
OC Register leading with this article today on demand and supply... some interesting stats.
https://www.ocregister.com/2018/07/...-up-to-southern-californias-housing-shortage/

Demands is always there. Qualifications and loans approval is another. This is the reason why risks for major melt down eliminated. We will have minimal price decrease in SoCal especially Irvine due to the facts that those loans were obtained with substantial skins in the game and Dodd-Frank lending rules has protected the system from crazy, greedy lending practices.
 
kpatnps said:
sell4u said:
Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS

So 2018 has a 23% increase in inventory compared to 2017.  What would also be telling is the trajectory of this increase.  I saw Steve Thomas' report on housing and it seems the acceleration is quite significant suggesting this may increase more in the following months.  Any thoughts? 

Inventory levels tend to start dropping after Labor Day and will keep decreasing until Christmas/New Years (this is the low point of inventory).  The peak of inventory tends to be July/Aug.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Bingo, many of the listings that I lose are to agents who promise these "pie in the sky" prices to sellers where I tell them what they can reasonably expect to sell their home for.  What happens?  The home sits and sits and sits followed by one price then another and then another until it eventually either gets de-listed OR it closes for a price at or below of what I said it would have.  I'm just not the type of agent to blow smoke up my client's butt, I'm very analytical and back-up my estimates with hard data.  As I tell my clients....numbers never lie, only idiot realtors do.  haha
Correct me if I'm wrong but from what i can tell, your pricing strategy seems to generally be to list for slightly below market value, create a multiple offer situation and then generally the seller can get slightly over list price for a final transaction price either at or marginally above other comps. This creates a very quick and efficient sale with less time needed.

I've seen other agents who also like to list below market value to create an auction environment. Do you think there are different situations or market conditions where by listing too low, you might anchor the price negotiation at too low of a starting point (i.e., buyers are only willing to overbid by X amount and if we list too low, it's harder to get above market value)? Perhaps by listing closer to market value (or even very marginally above in certain cases), a higher sales price could be achieved, though perhaps taking slightly longer to complete a sale?
 
i1 said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Bingo, many of the listings that I lose are to agents who promise these "pie in the sky" prices to sellers where I tell them what they can reasonably expect to sell their home for.  What happens?  The home sits and sits and sits followed by one price then another and then another until it eventually either gets de-listed OR it closes for a price at or below of what I said it would have.  I'm just not the type of agent to blow smoke up my client's butt, I'm very analytical and back-up my estimates with hard data.  As I tell my clients....numbers never lie, only idiot realtors do.  haha
Correct me if I'm wrong but from what i can tell, your pricing strategy seems to generally be to list for slightly below market value, create a multiple offer situation and then generally the seller can get slightly over list price for a final transaction price either at or marginally above other comps. This creates a very quick and efficient sale with less time needed.

I've seen other agents who also like to list below market value to create an auction environment. Do you think there are different situations or market conditions where by listing too low, you might anchor the price negotiation at too low of a starting point (i.e., buyers are only willing to overbid by X amount and if we list too low, it's harder to get above market value)? Perhaps by listing closer to market value (or even very marginally above in certain cases), a higher sales price could be achieved, though perhaps taking slightly longer to complete a sale?

It's really a case by case situation which pricing strategy works best for the seller and their property.  I only recommend that a home be slightly under-listed (no more than $20k-30k below closed comps) if the market is strong for that type of property which will ensure that we get the buyer velocity of offers to get the price back up to comps and at times have it go over closed comps due to a bidding war.  An example would be a 3-bedroom condo under $800k in Irvine.

To your point, it's not a good idea to under-list any property if you are in a neutral or in a buyer's market because then you won't get enough buyers to bid up the property back to the market price.  It's also not a good idea to under-list when there are several of the same or similar floor plans listed on the market because buyers will feel that they won't need to bid up an under-listed property. 

Typically if a seller wants to sell a property quickly (when the home is vacant or if they don't want to deal with keeping an occupied home in show condition for months because they have kids) then slightly under-listing may be the right strategy.  Listing a higher priced property (e.g. $1m+ in Irvine) too low where you don't have enough buyers to bring it back up to market price is not optimal. In those situations, pricing should be above closed comps so you leave room to negotiate the price down to a price both the buyer and seller feel comfortable at. 

Understanding which type of property should and shouldn't be under-listed is very important and takes someone who understands the buyer dynamics within that particular market and price band.  At the end of the day, I provide all of the different pricing options with my sellers with the potential pros and cons for each option and let them decide which option they are most comfortable with.  Yes, getting the seller the highest price possible is very important but how much time that takes to get the home sold should also be considered in the equation because time is money, especially with vacant properties. 
 
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