More Homes Being Listed - Irvine

[eyephone]

Just don?t blame the seller, but are the real estate agents to blame also regarding the high prices?

Two signature are on the listing contract. 

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Just don?t blame the seller, but are the real estate agents to blame also regarding the high prices?

Two signature are on the listing contract. 

Nah...RE agent advises but client decide on the price.  That's not to say that there are no bad RE agents who oversell to the client.

 

[the.irvine]

Trump lays into the Federal Reserve, says he's 'not thrilled' about interest rate hikes.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/tru...ys-hes-not-thrilled-about-interest-rate-.html

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Trump lays into the Federal Reserve, says he's 'not thrilled' about interest rate hikes.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/tru...ys-hes-not-thrilled-about-interest-rate-.html

Candidate Trump:

The Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, who has previously accused the Federal Reserve of keeping interest rates low to help Barack Obama, said on Monday that the US central bank had created a ?false economy? and that interest rates should change. His Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, seized on the remarks as proof that Trump is not presidential.

?They?re keeping the rates down so that everything else doesn?t go down,? Trump said in response to a reporter?s request to address a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September. ?We have a very false economy,? he said.

?At some point the rates are going to have to change,? Trump, who was campaigning in Ohio on Monday, added. ?The only thing that is strong is the artificial stock market.?

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-federal-reserve-false-economy-interest-rates

 

[Mety]

Just don?t blame the seller, but are the real estate agents to blame also regarding the high prices?

Two signature are on the listing contract. 

Nah...RE agent advises but client decide on the price.  That's not to say that there are no bad RE agents who oversell to the client.

Some agents try to do the tricks. They promise the price they can't keep up with and the seller falls in love with that price tag. Then after the home sits for 2 months with no offers, the home finally gets delisted or the price reduction continues.

It's all about the numbers that's really important IMO. Negotiation skills, good looking flyers, and all those 3D VR tour are nice to have, but it really does come down to the listing price number that will sell the home. And I always laugh at that '888' numbers they list with. I don't think that really attracts FCB anymore. Or does anyone think it really works?

 

[bones]

Just don?t blame the seller, but are the real estate agents to blame also regarding the high prices?

Two signature are on the listing contract. 

Nah...RE agent advises but client decide on the price.  That's not to say that there are no bad RE agents who oversell to the client.

Some agents try to do the tricks. They promise the price they can't keep up with and the seller falls in love with that price tag. Then after the home sits for 2 months with no offers, the home finally gets delisted or the price reduction continues.

It's all about the numbers that's really important IMO. Negotiation skills, good looking flyers, and all those 3D VR tour are nice to have, but it really does come down to the listing price number that will sell the home. And I always laugh at that '888' numbers they list with. I don't think that really attracts FCB anymore. Or does anyone think it really works?

Interestingly, I've only had the opposite conversations with realtors.  I want to sell at X and the realtors all try to discourage me from that price.  Some straight up tell me "I'll never get it".

 

[usctrojancpa]

Just don?t blame the seller, but are the real estate agents to blame also regarding the high prices?

Two signature are on the listing contract. 

Nah...RE agent advises but client decide on the price.  That's not to say that there are no bad RE agents who oversell to the client.

Some agents try to do the tricks. They promise the price they can't keep up with and the seller falls in love with that price tag. Then after the home sits for 2 months with no offers, the home finally gets delisted or the price reduction continues.

It's all about the numbers that's really important IMO. Negotiation skills, good looking flyers, and all those 3D VR tour are nice to have, but it really does come down to the listing price number that will sell the home. And I always laugh at that '888' numbers they list with. I don't think that really attracts FCB anymore. Or does anyone think it really works?

Bingo, many of the listings that I lose are to agents who promise these "pie in the sky" prices to sellers where I tell them what they can reasonably expect to sell their home for.  What happens?  The home sits and sits and sits followed by one price then another and then another until it eventually either gets de-listed OR it closes for a price at or below of what I said it would have.  I'm just not the type of agent to blow smoke up my client's butt, I'm very analytical and back-up my estimates with hard data.  As I tell my clients....numbers never lie, only idiot realtors do.  haha

 

[usctrojancpa]

The number of active listings in Irvine as of Wednesday at 5pm is 694 properties and that includes 81 new homes (so only 613 true resale properties).  In the past month, there have been 252 closed sales in Irvine.  That translates to 2.75 months of inventory which is still a seller's market.  Of course there's more inventory now then there was a few months ago since we are in the middle of selling season.  The number of homes listed on the market will peak in July/Aug and will be begin to drop after Labor Day.

So you don't notice anything different or slow? I know you list your homes with right price all the time so you personally might not be having any issues selling them, but what about other listings?
Would you say the price will rise even more from here? I'm talking about short term like a year or two. We all know the home will appreciate if you sit on it for 10+ years, but I'm curious what experts are thinking or feeling how this market is currently moving. We are not God so our prediction could be wrong. Just asking for opinions and advises.

Here's what I'm seeing as I'm both a listing agent and buyer agent in Irvine.....properties priced right move fast, properties with unique features (highly upgraded, larger lots, view lots, etc) move fast, properties under $1m around comps move fast with multiple offers, properties way over comps sit, properties in bad locations sit, and properties that don't show well and aren't priced at or below comps sit.  I am seeing an increasing number of listings with prices that are way too high to even appraise and all those properties will do is just sit on the market until the sellers comes to their senses or they will be delisted. 

I thought prices this year would have been flat since rates have ticked up a bit, but I was wrong about that predication.  Prices are up about 4-8% YTD in Irvine.  Where do I think prices head in the next year or two?  Well, barring any economic downturn I think prices will continue to slowly grind higher.  As I mentioned before, keep an eye out on not just the total inventory level (as that is seasonal) but keep an eye out on the months of inventory of homes on the market.  Anything below 4 months of inventory is a seller's market, 4-6 months of inventory is a neutral market, and 6+ months of inventory is a buyer's market.  For us to get to even a neutral market, we would need about 1,000 active listings on the market today (for a buyer's market we would need about 1,500 active listings).

Thanks for your genuine opinion. Your answer is as always very professional.

In the beginning of the year, I thought the price was going to go even higher. But I noticed a little bit of hiccups here and there so wanted to hear what others are thinking and share information here especially from the experts' perspectives.

Though many including USC think the price will keep rising, there are other voice like eyephone who's been predicting some price reduction in the market as well.

We shall see where it's heading and don't forget that Delano is releasing another phase real soon.*



*No. I don't work for Delano, IHO and CV. I just got an email from them. They keep sending emails even though I told them I'm not buying there.

I'm always happen to share what I hear and see in the market with all of you here on TI.  I call'em as I see'em and use analytical data to come up with my estimates and predictions.  I've discovered that a good tea leaf of where prices might be heading is watching the number of months of resale inventory on the market.  Remember that sellers generally list their homes slightly above the most recent closed comp and as long as there are buyers willing to buy those homes prices will continue to grind higher.  It's when there is more resale home competition on the market that buyers can negotiate prices down (if the seller is motivated to actually sell because not all sellers are motivated to sell at a realistic price).

 

[id_rather_be_racing]

@Mety: Why aren't you buying in Delano? Max ROI and noiseless garage doors.

I actually do regret not buying in phase 1 or 2. I think I've said that before. But I went with another home which I think was a better choice for our family.

I told you that MAX ROI phase is gone too. I don't really recommend buying there now, but who knows if it will have another $200k appreciation? I doubt it though.

I bought in phase 1 (not delano) and the appreciation is similar and very eye-opening.  Is this the case for all new neighborhoods for phase 1 or 2 homebuyers? I thought some communities had to discount subsequent phases, but not sure if that was already after 10-15 phases' price increases.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So about owner pricing vs agent pricing.

When we sold a house I wanted X amount. But instead of listing at X amount, I listed at X + Y, even though IR2 (Scott Gunther) suggested listing lower because I wanted negotiating space.

No bites for a month, so we lowered it to X (even though I was considering lowering it to X + Z).

Then we got multiple offers, with one below X, most at X, and some over X. Accepted the highest over X offer.

So probably could have saved some time if we started at X in the first place.

Compare that to previous home (during "crash") (not listed with Scott but should have been). We listed at X (which was less than what we wanted but was hoping to move it fast). No offers for a few weeks and then got 3... all for under X. finally accepted an X - Y one. That one hurt... but... it was not 50% below what we bought it for at peak... actually only 5% under.

So just like timing, pricing is not an exact science.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Just don?t blame the seller, but are the real estate agents to blame also regarding the high prices?

Two signature are on the listing contract. 

Nah...RE agent advises but client decide on the price.  That's not to say that there are no bad RE agents who oversell to the client.

Some agents try to do the tricks. They promise the price they can't keep up with and the seller falls in love with that price tag. Then after the home sits for 2 months with no offers, the home finally gets delisted or the price reduction continues.

It's all about the numbers that's really important IMO. Negotiation skills, good looking flyers, and all those 3D VR tour are nice to have, but it really does come down to the listing price number that will sell the home. And I always laugh at that '888' numbers they list with. I don't think that really attracts FCB anymore. Or does anyone think it really works?

Interestingly, I've only had the opposite conversations with realtors.  I want to sell at X and the realtors all try to discourage me from that price.  Some straight up tell me "I'll never get it".

Those are agents that want a "slam dunk" listing where they set the bar so low with the seller that when the home sells at a higher price than their overly conservative estimate they hope to look like a superstar to their client. Instances where I've "under priced" some of my listings, the mutually agreed upon sales price that I have with the seller is materially above the list price.

 

[woodburyowner]

The flipside of the argument is that some listings do close at a WTF price.  Every seller has the mindset, it just takes one buyer... a buyer that gets emotionally attached to a particular home and overbids. 

 

[usctrojancpa]

The flipside of the argument is that some listings do close at a WTF price.  Every seller has the mindset, it just takes one buyer... a buyer that gets emotionally attached to a particular home and overbids. 

This is very true and tends to happen in situations where there are multiple offers on a home.  An emotional buyer will basically outbid themselves to get the home.  I've had a handful of those situations where the ultimate buyer had the highest offer (higher than even the best and final counter from the 2nd highest offer) and they increased their offer amount by $20k-$40k from their original offer.

 

[Kings]

The flipside of the argument is that some listings do close at a WTF price.  Every seller has the mindset, it just takes one buyer... a buyer that gets emotionally attached to a particular home and overbids. 

This is very true and tends to happen in situations where there are multiple offers on a home.  An emotional buyer will basically outbid themselves to get the home.  I've had a handful of those situations where the ultimate buyer had the highest offer (higher than even the best and final counter from the 2nd highest offer) and they increased their offer amount by $20k-$40k from their original offer.

i would imagine these properties have a unique selling feature like A+ location, rare floorplan, or oversized yard

 

[Halos]

Stupid reminds me

Have I got a great stoop-id article for you ? enjoy w your MAGA koolaid

We are a deeply stupid country
by Dana Milbank
My fellow Americans, we are a deeply stupid nation.

I know this must be the case because President Trump has repeatedly informed us that we are a ?stupid country? ? he offered this opinion on at least nine occasions since he launched his campaign for the presidency ? and he should know. As he reminded us after his NATO meeting last week, he is a ?very stable genius.?

It is furthermore the president?s highly intelligent opinion we have been led by ?stupid people? and ?our laws are so corrupt and stupid.? We have been stupid about trade. We have been stupid in dealing with Iraq, Iran, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe and Muslims. We have the ?dumbest? immigration laws. Among the many stupid things Trump has identified: White House staffers, the FBI, the National Football League, Democrats, the filibuster and journalists.

?We?re so stupid!? Trump said to a group of donors recently. They laughed.

?You feel like sort of stupid, don?t you?? Trump asked a rally of supporters recently. ?Don?t you feel stupid??

Stoo-pid! Stoo-pid!

But we are at our most imbecilic when dealing with Russia. ?Our relationship with Russia has NEVER been worse thanks to many years of U.S. foolishness and stupidity,? he tweeted before meeting Monday in Helsinki with Russia?s Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs retweeted Trump?s assessment of his own country?s stupidity, tacking on the words ?We agree.?

In his news conference a few hours later with Putin, Trump again raised the flag of American feeblemindedness. ?The United States has been foolish,? he said.

How foolish are we?

We brainlessly criticized Russia when it invaded Georgia and Ukraine. We idiotically protested when Russia poisoned people in Britain. Like dunces, we punished Russians for killing human rights activists. Morons that we are, we complained when Russia shot down a passenger jet. And then, revealing ourselves to be truly daft and inane, we blamed Russia for interfering in our election.

Standing at Putin?s side Monday, Trump let the world know just how doltish the people are who made this judgment, including the cretins at the CIA and the nitwits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. ?I have President Putin; he just said it?s not Russia,? Trump announced. ?I don?t see any reason why it would be? Russia.

Trump, an aficionado of intelligence, likely sides with Putin because Putin is ?very smart? in Trump?s estimation (though not a ?smart cookie? like Kim Jong Un), while he regards American intelligence as unintelligent. Trump long ago dismissed the CIA as the numskulls ?who said Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction.?

And the CIA?s ignorance is as nothing compared with the ignoramus Robert S. Mueller III and his special counsel investigation (?we have this stupidity going on ? pure stupidity,? Trump said in Britain), which on Friday indicted 12 Russians in the hack of the Democratic National Committee. The dunces of the DNC ?should be ashamed of themselves? for being hacked, Trump said.

Trump sometimes has trouble convincing people of the truth of his position. This is because he is surrounded by idiots.

NATO allies fumed about Trump?s threats to abandon the alliance and go his ?own way,? and his later claim that the European Union is America?s ?foe.? Fools! If they were smarter, they would realize NATO ?is much stronger? for Trump?s efforts.

Many looking at the video of Trump saying Germany is ?totally controlled by Russia? thought White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly was uncomfortable. Imbeciles! Kelly was upset because he ?was expecting a full breakfast and there were only pastries and cheese.?

[It was the cheese that let John Kelly down]

The British thought Trump had savaged Prime Minister Theresa May when, in a recorded interview, he said she ?wrecked Brexit? and ?didn?t listen? to his advice. Rubes! ?I didn?t criticize the prime minister,? Trump said.

It appeared, to the dim, there were tens, if not hundreds of thousands, in the streets of Britain, even mocking him with a blimp showing an angry, orange Trump baby. But Trump?s genius could discern that ?they like me here.?

Likewise, many a low-IQ individual cringed at Trump?s performance in Helsinki: deferential to the Russian dictator, believing Putin over the U.S. government and boasting (with an incorrect figure) about his electoral college victory. But they are stupid if they can?t see Russia did not help Trump win. ?We ran a brilliant campaign, and that?s why I?m president,? Trump said.

If Trump is right ? and he is so smart that he must be ? then this could mean Americans wanted exactly what they are getting right now: a president who burns alliances, insults allies, sides with Putin over the American government, ignores Russia?s abuses and bashes the free press across Europe.

If so, if we Americans really did want this, Trump has proved his point about our intelligence.

As a wise man once said: Stupid is as stupid does.

Let's all stamp our feet on the ground in a fit of rage for 2 minutes please

 

[mgc949]

I seem to be seing more homes being listed AND a lot of price reductions lately. Their is talk of a bubble as I'm sure most know....Do you think a home in Northpark would sell faster than a home at the Great Park or Porola Springs since it is Guard Gated, has 5 pools, tennis courts, lower HOA, etc OR would buyers still prefer a newer home even though you might not get your own drive way since everthing under $1.5 is in a motor court...lol

 

[Halos]

I seem to be seing more homes being listed AND a lot of price reductions lately. Their is talk of a bubble as I'm sure most know....Do you think a home in Northpark would sell faster than a home at the Great Park or Porola Springs since it is Guard Gated, has 5 pools, tennis courts, lower HOA, etc OR would buyers still prefer a newer home even though you might not get your own drive way since everthing under $1.5 is in a motor court...lol

Sales down 20% YoY in So Cal
Inventory up 213% YoY in So Cal

Global luxury RE is slowing down everywhere. Definitely in a bubble, with price declines just starting.

I think Northpark would be a much better choice than GP or PS.

 

[sell4u]

Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS

 

[Irvine Dream]

Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS

It will be awesome if you can go back to 2003, then we can see how much correlation to price vs no of listing, atleast 2 up cylces and 1 down cycle

 

[kpatnps]

Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS

So 2018 has a 23% increase in inventory compared to 2017.  What would also be telling is the trajectory of this increase.  I saw Steve Thomas' report on housing and it seems the acceleration is quite significant suggesting this may increase more in the following months.  Any thoughts?