MLS Irvine Closed Sales since 1/1/2006

IR <<well over 50% of the buyers bear Asian surnames.





but hasn't this been the case for quite some time now? it seems as if many of the people, over the past 10 years, moving into Irvine and putting their kids in the schools are of asian descent (i don't know if it is 50% or 80%)?
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210035966]What jumps out to me on IR2's spreadsheet is the sales volume. Average sales in Jan/Feb were 77. April was 137 units... Almost 80% more sales in April with the same inventory count essentially as on 12/31/07 means WAY less inventory.



In Irvine, we started the year out with 10-11 months inventory. In a few short months, that has been reduced to 6-7 months worth. The median DOM was down to 80 on the April sales whereas it was 115 on the Feb sales...



Unless/until the recent dynamics change, prices will start firming soon if they haven't already.</blockquote>


Sounds like you better get out there and make some serious offers, Ipop.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1210052363][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210035966]What jumps out to me on IR2's spreadsheet is the sales volume. Average sales in Jan/Feb were 77. April was 137 units... Almost 80% more sales in April with the same inventory count essentially as on 12/31/07 means WAY less inventory.



In Irvine, we started the year out with 10-11 months inventory. In a few short months, that has been reduced to 6-7 months worth. The median DOM was down to 80 on the April sales whereas it was 115 on the Feb sales...



Unless/until the recent dynamics change, prices will start firming soon if they haven't already.</blockquote>


Sounds like you better get out there and make some serious offers, Ipop.</blockquote>


Nah, I'll sit and wait. The current market dynamics just mean I'll probably have to wait longer or get lucky enough to pick up an REO. I wish it weren't so, but 3-4% declines per month were too good to be true for a protracted period of time. I think we were all getting spoiled by it...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210035966]What jumps out to me on IR2's spreadsheet is the sales volume. Average sales in Jan/Feb were 77. April was 137 units... Almost 80% more sales in April with the same inventory count essentially as on 12/31/07 means WAY less inventory.



In Irvine, we started the year out with 10-11 months inventory. In a few short months, that has been reduced to 6-7 months worth. The median DOM was down to 80 on the April sales whereas it was 115 on the Feb sales...



Unless/until the recent dynamics change, prices will start firming soon if they haven't already.</blockquote>


You mean sales went up and DOM went down <em>during the spring selling season?</em> Say it ain't so. ;-P



If you want a good trend analysis, check YOY numbers for each month instead.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1210046515][quote author="acpme" date=1210045267]

also, rich foreign buyers are not necessarily a good thing. a town full of wealthy foreigners who may or may not actually make their living here is not beneficial in the long-run. irvine needs diversified industries with good income-producing jobs, instead of pinning its hopes on replacing one bubble (housing) with another (asian/middle-east economies). look at japantown in LA, for example. it was a boomtown in the late 80s and now it's a ghost town.</blockquote>


Two words are all you need to know: San Marino</blockquote>


Dude, San Marino was swanky before the Asians showed up. It was <em>designed</em> to be that way.
 
I seem to remember Ipop saying in this thread that YOY numbers were unimportant to him and he was more concerned with month to month escrow openings, because they indicated to him whether or not prices would be rising soon.
 
Have you ever heard of that analogy: A guy falls off a one hundred story building and at first panics. But about ten stories down he starts to relax when he thinks, "Hey, this isn't so bad."
 
[quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1210066972][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210035966]What jumps out to me on IR2's spreadsheet is the sales volume. Average sales in Jan/Feb were 77. April was 137 units... Almost 80% more sales in April with the same inventory count essentially as on 12/31/07 means WAY less inventory.



In Irvine, we started the year out with 10-11 months inventory. In a few short months, that has been reduced to 6-7 months worth. The median DOM was down to 80 on the April sales whereas it was 115 on the Feb sales...



Unless/until the recent dynamics change, prices will start firming soon if they haven't already.</blockquote>


You mean sales went up and DOM went down <em>during the spring selling season?</em> Say it ain't so. ;-P



If you want a good trend analysis, check YOY numbers for each month instead.</blockquote>


You conveniently ignore the fact that inventory typically INCREASES during the spring selling season Eva... Do you see that being the case this year?



YOY sales being down but they are only a single point of data that must be considered against other variables. If sales were down 50% but inventory was down 75%, looking at it your way would and does produce a poor picture of reality.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1210067337]I seem to remember Ipop saying in this thread that YOY numbers were unimportant to him and he was more concerned with month to month escrow openings, because they indicated to him whether or not prices would be rising soon.</blockquote>


YOY <u>sales</u> numbers are unimportant to me and that is definitely still the case. I think YOY months inventory is a much more useful stat. As months inventory gets lower, sellers have less competition, are less reluctant to lower list, less reluctant to take lower-priced offers, etc.
 
IPOP,



In a "normal supply and demand" market I would agree with you; however, the housing market (prices) has many other influences than just simple supply.



Homes are financed, and in California they are heavily financed. People NEED to sell but they can't.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210072981][quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1210066972][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210035966]What jumps out to me on IR2's spreadsheet is the sales volume. Average sales in Jan/Feb were 77. April was 137 units... Almost 80% more sales in April with the same inventory count essentially as on 12/31/07 means WAY less inventory.



In Irvine, we started the year out with 10-11 months inventory. In a few short months, that has been reduced to 6-7 months worth. The median DOM was down to 80 on the April sales whereas it was 115 on the Feb sales...



Unless/until the recent dynamics change, prices will start firming soon if they haven't already.</blockquote>


You mean sales went up and DOM went down <em>during the spring selling season?</em> Say it ain't so. ;-P



If you want a good trend analysis, check YOY numbers for each month instead.</blockquote>


You conveniently ignore the fact that inventory typically INCREASES during the spring selling season Eva... Do you see that being the case this year?



YOY sales being down but they are only a single point of data that must be considered against other variables. If sales were down 50% but inventory was down 75%, looking at it your way would and does produce a poor picture of reality.</blockquote>


Or if you look at this another way Eva, when YOY sales are higher come late Summer / early Fall, I won't be hollering about the market being at a bottom if the inventory has grown relative to those sales figures such that months inventory is still suggestive of further declines. We will see YOY sales figures that are higher as sales came to a relative standstill last year... Hopefully many of the NODs filed early this year will provide an inventory boost during Summer and Fall to bring the months inventory back up.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210075213][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210072981][quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1210066972][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210035966]What jumps out to me on IR2's spreadsheet is the sales volume. Average sales in Jan/Feb were 77. April was 137 units... Almost 80% more sales in April with the same inventory count essentially as on 12/31/07 means WAY less inventory.



In Irvine, we started the year out with 10-11 months inventory. In a few short months, that has been reduced to 6-7 months worth. The median DOM was down to 80 on the April sales whereas it was 115 on the Feb sales...



Unless/until the recent dynamics change, prices will start firming soon if they haven't already.</blockquote>


You mean sales went up and DOM went down <em>during the spring selling season?</em> Say it ain't so. ;-P



If you want a good trend analysis, check YOY numbers for each month instead.</blockquote>


You conveniently ignore the fact that inventory typically INCREASES during the spring selling season Eva... Do you see that being the case this year?



YOY sales being down but they are only a single point of data that must be considered against other variables. If sales were down 50% but inventory was down 75%, looking at it your way would and does produce a poor picture of reality.</blockquote>


Or if you look at this another way Eva, when YOY sales are higher come late Summer / early Fall, I won't be hollering about the market being at a bottom if the inventory has grown relative to those sales figures such that months inventory is still suggestive of further declines. We will see YOY sales figures that are higher as sales came to a relative standstill last year... Hopefully many of the NODs filed early this year will provide an inventory boost during Summer and Fall to bring the months inventory back up.</blockquote>


I agree with this. My wife and I looked at a number of homes the last 5 days. Any of them that appeared competitively priced and showed well were just about in escrow before we even had time to consider an offer. Many of them have multiples and they are probably going to be mid 2005 rollbacks at best. You can basically throw out many of the 900+ homes in inventory because they are either multi-million, which most people can't afford, or because they are WTF prices and have been on the market 200 days.
 
This thread is amusing. The bulls have come out.



I suppose if you completely ignore the macroeconomic picture, the conditions in the mortgage markets, the flood of REOs entering the market, and the collapse of prices in all surrounding markets, you could interpret the activity in Irvine as bullish. There does seem to be a concentration of knife catchers looking for quality in Irvine. Are there going to be enough of them to prop up the market? Anything is possible. I suspect you will see a decline in volume as the surrounding neighborhoods continue to decline as the substitution effect takes over. If a 2000 SF home is going for $250,000 in Rancho Santa Margarita, people will not be willing to pay $750,000 in Irvine. The collapse of surrounding markets is going to entice buyers away from Irvine ultimately depress volumes and prices. I don't know if any of you have been going to South OC Tracker, but prices in South County are already approaching rental parity, and the flood of REOs is going to continue to push prices lower there.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210072981][quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1210066972][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210035966]What jumps out to me on IR2's spreadsheet is the sales volume. Average sales in Jan/Feb were 77. April was 137 units... Almost 80% more sales in April with the same inventory count essentially as on 12/31/07 means WAY less inventory.



In Irvine, we started the year out with 10-11 months inventory. In a few short months, that has been reduced to 6-7 months worth. The median DOM was down to 80 on the April sales whereas it was 115 on the Feb sales...



Unless/until the recent dynamics change, prices will start firming soon if they haven't already.</blockquote>


You mean sales went up and DOM went down <em>during the spring selling season?</em> Say it ain't so. ;-P



If you want a good trend analysis, check YOY numbers for each month instead.</blockquote>


You conveniently ignore the fact that inventory typically INCREASES during the spring selling season Eva... Do you see that being the case this year?



YOY sales being down but they are only a single point of data that must be considered against other variables. If sales were down 50% but inventory was down 75%, looking at it your way would and does produce a poor picture of reality.</blockquote>


Typically? I don't know. I don't have any of the historical inventory information to be able to agree or disagree that inventory typically increases during the spring season. If anyone has that, I would enjoy looking it over. I would really enjoy historical inventory information from about 1988 forward to see what the inventory patterns of the last downturn were like.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210111341]prices in South County are already approaching rental parity, and the flood of REOs is going to continue to push prices lower there.</blockquote>


This is true. I found another foreclosure today (<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/ALISO-VIEJO/7-EL-CASERIO-92656/home/5594298">a 3/3 SFR in Aliso</a>) that is very close to rental parity - but not quite there yet. I am also noticing more properties come on to the market at lower prices - the expected REOs as well as short sales, but I'm not ready to decide yet whether these are legitimate prices or if they are banks and underwater borrowers who are trying to get bidding wars started and don't intend to sell for those prices.



Some of the small condo complexes in less desirable neighborhoods are already at or very near rental parity, but there are too many in foreclosure to not expect prices to deteriorate further, whether they are picked up by investors in the hopes of renting them out, and they flood the rental market, or as the foreclosures there continue. <a href="http://www.southoctracker.com/2008/04/via-lomas-street-in-despair.html">This one street alone</a> had 16 foreclosures on it a couple weeks ago.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210111341]This thread is amusing. The bulls have come out.



I suppose if you completely ignore the macroeconomic picture, the conditions in the mortgage markets, the flood of REOs entering the market, and the collapse of prices in all surrounding markets, you could interpret the activity in Irvine as bullish. There does seem to be a concentration of knife catchers looking for quality in Irvine. Are there going to be enough of them to prop up the market? Anything is possible. I suspect you will see a decline in volume as the surrounding neighborhoods continue to decline as the substitution effect takes over. If a 2000 SF home is going for $250,000 in Rancho Santa Margarita, people will not be willing to pay $750,000 in Irvine. The collapse of surrounding markets is going to entice buyers away from Irvine ultimately depress volumes and prices. I don't know if any of you have been going to South OC Tracker, but prices in South County are already approaching rental parity, and the flood of REOs is going to continue to push prices lower there.</blockquote><p>

/<p>

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IR - You are so wrong. All those macro factors are unimportant. They have little effect on the price of homes in Irvine. The YOY inventory is most important for price predictive purposes.
 
there seems to be a lot of data mining going on. i'm pretty stumped as to any conclusions that can be drawn from IR2's data (that doesn't mean it's not extremely useful and interesting though!)



there seems to be bullish signs and bearish signs, and you could easily grab onto any number of indicators that support your stance. its a common fallacy that if you're given a set of data, there must be some conclusion they are trying to tell you. on the contrary, the conclusion could be that there is no definite sign of direction. i think we take it for what it is, which is there's a lot of confusion and uncertainty out there. what's going in irvine housing is really no different than a microcosm of what's going on in the larger macroeconomic picture and financial mkts.



it's not necessarily bullish or bearish, except in the sense that a world of uncertainty doesn't seem like the best place and time to make a huge financial commitment.
 
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