usctrojancpa
Well-known member
meccos12 said:
Most escrows are 14 days (cash buyers) to 30 days (financed) so July sales are properties that most likely went into escrow in June and some early July.
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Most escrows are 14 days (cash buyers) to 30 days (financed) so July sales are properties that most likely went into escrow in June and some early July.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Here's an interest article that one of my clients texted me earlier today...
https://www.ocregister.com/2018/07/...rn-californias-housing-shortage-near-its-end/
Here are a few interesting points that were made in the article...
"And, yes, local homebuying?s pace is well above the ugly market bottoms. But house hunters? current reluctance to swiftly gobble up this year?s new listings suggests, at a minimum, a noteworthy hiccup. I?m betting pricing is an issue ? both from what an owner may think a home is worth to the price-cutting impact of pricier mortgages to a potential buyer?s budget."
I would translate that to mean that the asking prices are too high which is inline with what I have been saying that I've been seeing more and more highly optimistic listing prices because sellers think that the market is tighter than it really is. And since I love numbers and stats, here are the stats for Orange County...
Supply - the number of listings are up 426 homes or 7% from this time last year (I'm assuming it's as of June 30th)
Demand - new escrows are down 281 in 12 months or 9% (July 2017 to June 2018 vs July 2016 to June 2017) and down 2% in the past 6 months (Jan-June 2018 vs Jan-June 2017)
Market Time - 73 days on the market vs 62 days last year and an average of 64 days from 2012 to 2017
Irvine has outperformed what the average stats are for Orange County and will continue to do so because of several factors. I do agree with the author that the market has cooled a bit going from a seller's market to more of a neutral market, but properties that are priced reasonably still sell quickly including some with multiple offers. I personally think that it's healthy for market prices to flatten out and give people a chance to digest the price appreciation that we've seen since late 2012. Again, I thought prices in 2018 would have been flat compared to 2017 but I was wrong so the market will do what it wants to do. It seems like we are going to a more balanced market in the lower/middle end of the market while the high end of the market is more of a buyer's market unless you have a unique property (e.g. view lot, large lot, etc).
https://www.ocregister.com/2018/07/...rn-californias-housing-shortage-near-its-end/
Here are a few interesting points that were made in the article...
"And, yes, local homebuying?s pace is well above the ugly market bottoms. But house hunters? current reluctance to swiftly gobble up this year?s new listings suggests, at a minimum, a noteworthy hiccup. I?m betting pricing is an issue ? both from what an owner may think a home is worth to the price-cutting impact of pricier mortgages to a potential buyer?s budget."
I would translate that to mean that the asking prices are too high which is inline with what I have been saying that I've been seeing more and more highly optimistic listing prices because sellers think that the market is tighter than it really is. And since I love numbers and stats, here are the stats for Orange County...
Supply - the number of listings are up 426 homes or 7% from this time last year (I'm assuming it's as of June 30th)
Demand - new escrows are down 281 in 12 months or 9% (July 2017 to June 2018 vs July 2016 to June 2017) and down 2% in the past 6 months (Jan-June 2018 vs Jan-June 2017)
Market Time - 73 days on the market vs 62 days last year and an average of 64 days from 2012 to 2017
Irvine has outperformed what the average stats are for Orange County and will continue to do so because of several factors. I do agree with the author that the market has cooled a bit going from a seller's market to more of a neutral market, but properties that are priced reasonably still sell quickly including some with multiple offers. I personally think that it's healthy for market prices to flatten out and give people a chance to digest the price appreciation that we've seen since late 2012. Again, I thought prices in 2018 would have been flat compared to 2017 but I was wrong so the market will do what it wants to do. It seems like we are going to a more balanced market in the lower/middle end of the market while the high end of the market is more of a buyer's market unless you have a unique property (e.g. view lot, large lot, etc).
Alot of your comments are points are great. You do a nice job of bringing people back to the numbers an reality. Irvine is awesome, but nothing is perfect. I definitely thinking would be nice to see listing breakdown with say houses 1.5million and lower and those above.
Keep up the great posting!!
Keep up the great posting!!
USCTrojanCPA said:
Here's some interesting stats about the Bay Area, their July home sales dropped by 3% (year over year ) and inventory was up by 2% (YOY). Maybe it's just a fluke but it could be the start of a new trend. Inventory up by 2% is nothing but it's first time in 16 month their inventory level is up compare to prior year.
https://blog.pacificunion.com/final...nventory-arrives-after-16-months-of-declines/
https://blog.pacificunion.com/final...nventory-arrives-after-16-months-of-declines/
newPParker
Member
this property (Amethyst plan in great park/parasol park) came to market right after escrow and never seen anyone live there. $935k for a shared wall duplex condo with no drive way... I personally feel like this may be a redfit corporate experiment to see what buyers are thinking. if htis is a real listing, is this reasonable?
https://www.zillow.com/savedhomes/f...432,32.838058,-118.14972_rect/9_zm/1_rs/1_fr/
https://www.zillow.com/savedhomes/f...432,32.838058,-118.14972_rect/9_zm/1_rs/1_fr/
USCTrojanCPA said:
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Compressed-Village said:
eyephone only asks questions.
"What are your thoughts?"
17 trends behind the 10% fall in spring homebuying in Irvine, Tustin
https://www.ocregister.com/2018/08/...0-fall-in-spring-homebuying-in-irvine-tustin/
https://www.ocregister.com/2018/08/...0-fall-in-spring-homebuying-in-irvine-tustin/
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
eyephone said:
I think you mentioned that you've purchased at or near the bottom of a short sale transaction. And if that was the case it been about 6 or 7 years in the making. That is some good timing. I suppose you know where we stand right now and you know where to put your money.
?New home sales fall to 9-month low
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly fell in July to a nine-month low.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday new home sales decreased 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 units last month.
The sector has been plagued by rising building material costs and shortages of land and labor, which have put a squeeze on the supply of houses available for sale and kept house prices elevated.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...-july-new-home-sales-fall-to-9-month-low.html
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly fell in July to a nine-month low.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday new home sales decreased 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 units last month.
The sector has been plagued by rising building material costs and shortages of land and labor, which have put a squeeze on the supply of houses available for sale and kept house prices elevated.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...-july-new-home-sales-fall-to-9-month-low.html
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
eyephone said:
Reading the article leads me to believe that the cause of the drop in sales was due to the "squeeze on the supply of houses available for sale" rather than demand falling off a cliff. I do think that demand is down a bit for new homes but that's mainly because of the high price of new homes compared to resale homes once you factor in upgrades and landscaping (remember, builders tend to increase prices basically ever phase release).
And I predict once Irvine run out of land, new home sales are going to take a cliff dive. 
Look, July new home sale decrease just 1.7% from previous month but it was actually up 12.8% from a year ago.
Here's historic perspective, July 2018's new home sales of seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 was still far below the all time peak in 2005 and was up significantly form the all time low in 2011.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/08/a-few-comments-on-july-new-home-sales.html
Look, July new home sale decrease just 1.7% from previous month but it was actually up 12.8% from a year ago.
Here's historic perspective, July 2018's new home sales of seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 was still far below the all time peak in 2005 and was up significantly form the all time low in 2011.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/08/a-few-comments-on-july-new-home-sales.html
IrvineBug22
New member
newPParker said:
So much for over priced.... dropped to $900k and now has an offer and in backup status. This house is one of my neighbors (never spoke to them). Also this house didn't go on the market right after escrow. It would be interesting to find out the story but I had spoken to someone a block or so away and something similar happened with their house but they determined Irvine wasn't for them and were relocating to Idaho but flipped the house.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/705-Beacon-92618/home/146266551
this was the one from awhile ago that I talked to
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/305-Magnet-92618/home/144759091