Market Top

[meccos12]

all of you calling the top, please put your money where your mouth is and sell your home.  should be a big profit for you!

Why would you expect people to sell their home just because they think its at the peak of a cycle?  People still need to live somewhere. 

If we were talking about very liquid investments like stocks, then its a different story.  A home to most of us is not an investment but a place to live your life.  As such it should be treated differently from an investment like stocks. 

However, if was on the fence about selling or planning on selling soon, I would probably sell now.  Or if I was a first time buyer, then I would probably wait.  Just my opinion.

 

[paperboyNC]

all of you calling the top, please put your money where your mouth is and sell your home.  should be a big profit for you!

Why would you expect people to sell their home just because they think its at the peak of a cycle?  People still need to live somewhere. 

If we were talking about very liquid investments like stocks, then its a different story.  A home to most of us is not an investment but a place to live your life.  As such it should be treated differently from an investment like stocks. 

However, if was on the fence about selling or planning on selling soon, I would probably sell now.  Or if I was a first time buyer, then I would probably wait.  Just my opinion.

I know a lot of people that thought 2013 was a bubble and waited to buy. They waited and waited and waited and guess what happened? They got a lot less for their money in 2016, 2017 or 2018 when they finally pulled the trigger.

We are all nervous about the 2006-07 bubble burst repeating. It will not happen.

Just like there will not be a tech bubble burst like 2000-01.

In both cases, the current valuations are grounded compared to completely fictional.

 

[zubs]

11 years ago when Irvinghousingblog was still alive, the bulls would have defended realestate with much gusto and vitriol.  Today, I see the legacy of the experience learned from that time.  No one is defending the bullish side very much anymore and a more openness to what may happen has taken hold.

Back then bulls were much more adamant about their position to the enjoyment of the rest of us.

 

[paperboyNC]

11 years ago when Irvinghousingblog was still alive, the bulls would have defended realestate with much gusto and vitriol.  Today, I see the legacy of the experience learned from that time.  No one is defending the bullish side very much anymore and a more openness to what may happen has taken hold.

Back then bulls were much more adamant about their position to the enjoyment of the rest of us.

Which is honestly a big tell that this is not the top.

2006: EVERYONE told me to buy, buy, buy (housing)
2008: EVERYONE told me to sell, sell, sell (stocks and bonds)
2011: Most were skeptical about buying real estate
2018: Consensus is building that this is the top

The popular belief is usually the wrong one.

 

[Kenkoko]

There is a lot of demands just can't afford to buy. Prices are high, which forces POTENTIAL BUYERS to rent and see. The Irvine Company play this game well. They know their audiences and read people pockets very well. Another huge apartment complex will soon pop up on Sand Cayon and 5. This too will get fill up very quickly. Builders will build up, more vertical for a bit less price. It too will get gobble up. So to think this is top is premature. The IRVINE market has entered mature cycle, not necessary top.

What you described is Irvine having a lot of price downside resistance which most of us will agree with. Irvine is desirable and will remain so going forward.

But what you said did not add an argument to why prices will be continue to go up. These "potential buyers" already could not afford to buy at current price level. How is it that they all of a sudden CAN afford to buy when price continue to go up?

 

[Kenkoko]

Which is honestly a big tell that this is not the top.

2006: EVERYONE told me to buy, buy, buy (housing)
2008: EVERYONE told me to sell, sell, sell (stocks and bonds)
2011: Most were skeptical about buying real estate

Perhaps you should have better people advising you?

 

[Kings]

all of you calling the top, please put your money where your mouth is and sell your home.  should be a big profit for you!

Why would you expect people to sell their home just because they think its at the peak of a cycle?  People still need to live somewhere. 

If we were talking about very liquid investments like stocks, then its a different story.  A home to most of us is not an investment but a place to live your life.  As such it should be treated differently from an investment like stocks. 

However, if was on the fence about selling or planning on selling soon, I would probably sell now.  Or if I was a first time buyer, then I would probably wait.  Just my opinion.

would you sell and rent until your crystal ball says we're at the bottom, or sell and buy again right away?  selling and buying right away is more or less a lateral move in terms of market values

 

[fortune11]

We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say ?correction ? ? it means a bear market ? I think that?s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

 

[usctrojancpa]

We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say ?correction ? ? it means a bear market ? I think that?s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

I'm in your camp, we've run up enough and the market needs time to digest these gains.  I'm thinking we'll be flattish for the rest of this year.

 

[eyephone]

We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say ?correction ? ? it means a bear market ? I think that?s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

This is the first time I heard from you that there is a price break.

 

[panda]

Inventory levels in Irvine look very healthy. I wouldn't worry until I see inventory levels jump above the trend of 800 homes.

 

[eyephone]

What up! I notice priced reductions in Johns Creek and Atlanta. (Less than 7 days) *Some new construction price reduced*

Please share your thougts.

Inventory levels in Irvine look very healthy. I wouldn't worry until I see inventory levels jump above the trend of 800 homes.

 

[fortune11]

We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say ?correction ? ? it means a bear market ? I think that?s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

This is the first time I heard from you that there is a price break.

In just my last post I said that if you can comfortably afford to buy , use the weakness to negotiate a better deal ?- be it a choice lot, builder incentives or seller incentives .  And also that if you are stretching to buy , there is optionality in waiting

Stocks are also in a consolidation phase right now with sector rotation going on

Many sellers price their homes way too optimistically and that?s where list to sale price ratio can be higher , doesn?t mean market is in correction territory . This is my opinion .

My only fear is eyephone generally has a good pulse on the latest  trends in everything else , so what is he seeing this time that I am missing

 

[panda]

 

[panda]

Inventory levels are still healthy here in metro Atlanta / Johns Creek. Builders have been raising prices and will now need to adjust according to what the buyer's are willing to pay. The homes prices are still very affordable to the local demographic make up where the median home price vs the median household income is around a 3. The real estate cycles are a lot more volatile in SoCal than it is here.

 

[Kings]

We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say ?correction ? ? it means a bear market ? I think that?s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

This is the first time I heard from you that there is a price break.

In just my last post I said that if you can comfortably afford to buy , use the weakness to negotiate a better deal ?- be it a choice lot, builder incentives or seller incentives .  And also that if you are stretching to buy , there is optionality in waiting

Stocks are also in a consolidation phase right now with sector rotation going on

Many sellers price their homes way too optimistically and that?s where list to sale price ratio can be higher , doesn?t mean market is in correction territory . This is my opinion .

My only fear is eyephone generally has a good pulse on the latest  trends in everything else , so what is he seeing this time that I am missing

this is one of the biggest issues in my mind.  we've been seeing such a run up in the market that sellers are pricing their homes optimistically high with hope that just one person will pay their inflated price. this creates artificially larger inventory and everyone's ears perk up when they start seeing price reductions, even though homes that are priced properly to begin with sell within 30 days.

 

[paperboyNC]

Which is honestly a big tell that this is not the top.

2006: EVERYONE told me to buy, buy, buy (housing)
2008: EVERYONE told me to sell, sell, sell (stocks and bonds)
2011: Most were skeptical about buying real estate

Perhaps you should have better people advising you?

I'm talking about friends, co-workers, acquaintances.  I didn't listen to any of them about any of the advice.

 

[qwerty]

One thing not discussed is market psychology. Whatever the reason for the price declines, once buyers start to see price declines it can potentially prevent them from buying and if enough buyers hold back then the price declines may catch momentum and accelerate. The popular belief here is there is enough demand that people will jump in at say a 5% drop to prevent further declines, and that may be the case, but no one likes to catch a falling knife.

 

[fortune11]

One thing not discussed is market psychology. Whatever the reason for the price declines, once buyers start to see price declines it can potentially prevent them from buying and if enough buyers hold back then the price declines may catch momentum and accelerate. The popular belief here is there is enough demand that people will jump in at say a 5% drop to prevent further declines, and that may be the case, but no one likes to catch a falling knife.

The same thing holds true for a much more liquid market ? equities

But buy the dip has been an extremely profitable trade at the aggregate level (even if not at the single stock level ) ever since 2008

 

[Mety]

We could be in a sideways consolidation path (range bound )  for several months here before taking a leg higher

No one is disputing that there are better deals to be had , compared to say last year .

But when you say ?correction ? ? it means a bear market ? I think that?s where people need to Provide more hard data than just anecdotes on FCBs

This is the first time I heard from you that there is a price break.

In just my last post I said that if you can comfortably afford to buy , use the weakness to negotiate a better deal ?- be it a choice lot, builder incentives or seller incentives .  And also that if you are stretching to buy , there is optionality in waiting

Stocks are also in a consolidation phase right now with sector rotation going on

Many sellers price their homes way too optimistically and that?s where list to sale price ratio can be higher , doesn?t mean market is in correction territory . This is my opinion .

My only fear is eyephone generally has a good pulse on the latest  trends in everything else , so what is he seeing this time that I am missing

this is one of the biggest issues in my mind.  we've been seeing such a run up in the market that sellers are pricing their homes optimistically high with hope that just one person will pay their inflated price. this creates artificially larger inventory and everyone's ears perk up when they start seeing price reductions, even though homes that are priced properly to begin with sell within 30 days.

This is very true, but seeing those optimistically high priced homes could be the beginning of the crack as those could potentially lead to price reduction competitions and the whole phycological affect might pull the trigger from the buyer's side.

Homes priced properly are selling well regardless of seeing price reductions on overpriced homes. But at the same time, what does that priced properly mean? Are those really priced right or they just look that way since the market has gone too far with those optimistic listings?

Everyone is feeling the price peak whether you own properties or not. The correction is needed. No one knows when or how, but you do see the need of some kind of correction in this business. Of course as owners, we don't want to see depreciation for our homes so out of fear, we are saying it might stay flat or it might go down 5% or less, but let's be real. Even if the prices were to drop 20%, most of you who bought years ago will still be enjoying the appreciation.