awgee said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
JCie said:
Some thoughts:
I've been on these forums for a few months and reading housing blogs since early 05. I bought my last condo for 180k in 2001 and sold it in late 2005 for a huge profit. I was glad to get out and wanted to rent because my next move was going to be a major upgrade. I was lucky to find a highly upgraded rental property. I thought I would rent for 2 years and I ended up renting for over 4 years waiting for the bubble to burst. I've spent the last year shopping.
Prices may go down next year. There may or may not be a surge of foreclosures. The one thing that's for sure is that recently, properties, even in the 2mil range, were getting snapped up very quickly. Things were going nowhere and then all of a sudden, in August, things started moving fast. My reasonable but lowball offers got me NOWHERE both before and (especially) after August. My mother was looking in the low end (sub 350K) early Q2 09 and those were already hard to buy at that time.
Things have turned. Yes, they may crash further in 2010 but some people on this forum are obnoxiously bearish. I see posts where people take joy in other people's misery. I'm over the whole "taking joy in the crash". It was fun to anticipate in 06 and watch in 08 but now, I'm over it.
So a few weeks ago, I found a beautiful ocean view property in Newport Coast. There were the typical low ball offers and my first go at it was a pretty low offer. When that didn't get me anywhere, I stepped up. I ended up with a great deal on a stunning property in a beautiful community at around 30% - 35% off peak prices . The other buyers that were 5% below my offer ended up with nothing.
I am about to move to Newport Coast into what I'd call, my dream home, and I'm thrilled like a kid before Christmas. If it drops 5% or 10% more, it won't feel good but really, I won't even be thinking about it. Someone could offer me 15% more than I paid and I wouldn't sell. When you find your home, you just find your home. I was surprised that even on a relatively high budget, I had trouble finding a home that was just about perfect for me.
My point is: your home is an emotional purchase, not just a rational one. If you find a home you love and you can afford it, buy it and enjoy it.
Congrats and very well put. The market has turned and it is now a seller's market, that's fact based upon what I'm seeing first hand not only in Irvine but other cities in Orange County and even Vegas. Can prices blip down in 2010 or 2011 by 5-10%? Sure they can, but I just don't see a crash of 20%+ price declines coming. I have been shocked of how many strong buyers with huge amounts of cash looking for homes. The market has stabilized and prices are inching up as we speak. A home purchase for most buyers, including the ones I'm working with, is a very emotional event which has an intangible value for these buyers.
Hogwash.
The over $2,000,000 market is dead. Absolutely dead.
And prices in the under $800,000 market will decline more than another 20%.
The high-end market may decrease 20% or more, all depends on the economy, but the amount of high-end inventory is also declining and sales are picking up. I won't make any predictions on the high-end market because I don't have any buyers looking for properties in that market so I don't really track that market closely. I was speaking more about the middle and low-end market. I'm willing to bet you that the middle and low-end market in Irvine and South County will not decline over 20% from today's prices. I was bearish on housing until the past few months because from what I'm seeing first hand we are currently in a seller's market. Not sure if you heard, but on CNBC this afternoon they said they'll extend the homebuyer's tax credit and expand it for move-up buyers. Add that bank's continue to extend and pretend and you have yourself a seller's market.
Most all of my buyers are telling that things are picking up in their businesses and their companies. It's not just Irvine, the same lack of inventory in Mission Viejo, Laguna Niguel, Huntington Beach, Fullerton, Tustin Ranch, etc is causing multiple offers on homes prices around comps (don't even ask me what happens when the pricing is below market because it gets nuts), Unless inventory (real, non-short inventory) increases 100% from current levels, no way prices decline more than 10% from today's levels. Irvine prices are up 5% from the Spring of this year and other cities are beginning to see slight price increases (price/sf). I'll give you a great example...in all of Irvine there are only 28 detached 4+ bedroom homes (over 1,800sf under $900k) that are active non-short sale listings on MLS and the last 4 homes in Irvine that I put offers on for my buyers had 5-40 other offers. Increase the square footage to 2,000+ and you only have 18 homes that are active listings on MLS in Irvine (excludes short sale listings) For now we are in a seller's market.
