usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
[quote author="JCie" date=1258554124][quote author="muzie" date=1258449590]
I try to be impartial on both sides and like to hear both sides of the argument. I rent, so implicitly I stand to benefit is prices go down or stay flat - though I don't care as much as I used to.
It does seem to be the basis of your argument is, mainly, that things (well, prices) have been improving over a short period (of 6 months), and this should continue. From what I can tell, I don't need to have any real estate expertise to extrapolate trends from two data points, so I must admit the argument seems perhaps overly simple? Yes, there are factors messing with the fundamentals, though that seems to me to be an argument against buying, not for, since abnormal factors are, by definition, supposed to be transient in nature.
Why would you buy yourself but tell friends to wait? That doesn't make sense.</blockquote>
OK, let me clarify a few things.
I'm NOT saying prices are going to go up. I don't believe they will. I'm saying that prices dropping another 15% - 20% may not happen. I think what's most likely is a slight price drop across the board, continued drop on the very high end, and a housing market that will be sluggish for years to come.
I tell my friends that they may have to wait a year if they are in bidding situations on every home they try to buy. Most of my friends are not in the same market that I am. Where I bought, I had competition but it wasn't crazy like it is in the sub 750k homes. Most of my friends aren't in the same financial situation so the advice I give is relevant to them, not necessarily me.
After I sold my home in late 05 (to escape the bubble), I rented a nice but relatively conservative home for 4 years waiting things out. I've been looking at homes for the past year. I knew that the market was turning even in the 2mil+ range (for ocean view properties in Newport Coast). I could see because I started having to compete with cash buyers who started the "over asking" game. So when I got the chance to buy a home from a owners who had to sell (but not in shortsale/REO) that was stunningly beautiful and for a good price.. I jumped on it.
I don't want to wait another year. If prices drop, it would stink but financially, I'll be fine. I'm going to live in this house for at least 6 years anyway and when I sell, it will be to buy a 5M+ house.
I will repeat the point of my original post: If you find the home you love and that you can comfortably afford and you're going to live there for a while, don't paralyze yourself by thinking you know 100% what the market is going to do a year or two from now. Buy it and enjoy it. Life is short.</blockquote>
Very well put. A home is not strictly an investment, there are a lot of subjective factors that go into purchasing a home.
Will you be looking to buy in Shady Canyon or Crystal Cove in 6+ years?
I try to be impartial on both sides and like to hear both sides of the argument. I rent, so implicitly I stand to benefit is prices go down or stay flat - though I don't care as much as I used to.
It does seem to be the basis of your argument is, mainly, that things (well, prices) have been improving over a short period (of 6 months), and this should continue. From what I can tell, I don't need to have any real estate expertise to extrapolate trends from two data points, so I must admit the argument seems perhaps overly simple? Yes, there are factors messing with the fundamentals, though that seems to me to be an argument against buying, not for, since abnormal factors are, by definition, supposed to be transient in nature.
Why would you buy yourself but tell friends to wait? That doesn't make sense.</blockquote>
OK, let me clarify a few things.
I'm NOT saying prices are going to go up. I don't believe they will. I'm saying that prices dropping another 15% - 20% may not happen. I think what's most likely is a slight price drop across the board, continued drop on the very high end, and a housing market that will be sluggish for years to come.
I tell my friends that they may have to wait a year if they are in bidding situations on every home they try to buy. Most of my friends are not in the same market that I am. Where I bought, I had competition but it wasn't crazy like it is in the sub 750k homes. Most of my friends aren't in the same financial situation so the advice I give is relevant to them, not necessarily me.
After I sold my home in late 05 (to escape the bubble), I rented a nice but relatively conservative home for 4 years waiting things out. I've been looking at homes for the past year. I knew that the market was turning even in the 2mil+ range (for ocean view properties in Newport Coast). I could see because I started having to compete with cash buyers who started the "over asking" game. So when I got the chance to buy a home from a owners who had to sell (but not in shortsale/REO) that was stunningly beautiful and for a good price.. I jumped on it.
I don't want to wait another year. If prices drop, it would stink but financially, I'll be fine. I'm going to live in this house for at least 6 years anyway and when I sell, it will be to buy a 5M+ house.
I will repeat the point of my original post: If you find the home you love and that you can comfortably afford and you're going to live there for a while, don't paralyze yourself by thinking you know 100% what the market is going to do a year or two from now. Buy it and enjoy it. Life is short.</blockquote>
Very well put. A home is not strictly an investment, there are a lot of subjective factors that go into purchasing a home.
Will you be looking to buy in Shady Canyon or Crystal Cove in 6+ years?