[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1243222143][quote author="MalibuRenter" date=1243218203][quote author="SoCal78" date=1243213841]MR - How long have you guys been there now?</blockquote>
Came for interviews and started looking
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forumsfora place a month ago. Moved in two weeks ago. Seems like we have been here a long time.</blockquote>
How is the job market out in the Dallas area?</blockquote>
Well, the market here appears to be considerably better than Los Angeles. While unemployment is around 7% in Dallas, it's almost 11% in Los Angeles.
http://www.bls.gov/web/laummtrk.htm
LA has always had more part time, self employed, under the table, and others that don't show up as unemployed in tough times. I think the tremendous crash in tax receipts in CA shows how bad it is:
"Compared to April 2008, General Fund revenue in April
2009 was down $6.3 billion (-39%). The total for the three
largest taxes was below 2008 levels by $6.3 billion
(-40.3%). Sales taxes were $452
million lower (-50.9%) than last April,
and personal income taxes were
down $5.7 billion (-43.6%). Corporate
taxes were $142 million below (-8.6%)
April of 2008."
http://www.sco.ca.gov/Press-Releases/2009/05-09summary.pdf
There are some mitigating factors. The increase in sales taxes pushed some consumption slightly earlier to avoid the increase. Other people reduced or eliminated their state tax withholdings when CA announced it might delay refund checks (better to send money later than sit around waiting for a questionable refund).
However, there are likely some other things occurring. 1. It has been only lightly reported so far, but a lot of people are leaving CA. I run into them all over Dallas. Just tell people you've moved from CA, and they tell you they used to live there. They are quite a range of income and social groups. While there is no way tax changes as large as seen over 12 months could only be due to people leaving, it's a very bad sign. CA's number one problem is the downward real estate spiral. If only a few percent of homeowners and potential homeowners leave, it causes a much larger reduction in prices. That causes consumption to drop even more, and will cause a great deal of local government employees to lose their jobs. 2. Many people are simply avoiding paying taxes, because they don't have the income to pay it. Property taxes are primarily a local govt concern in CA, but assessments are dropping and late payments are way up. 3. Homes are on strike. Since late 2007, almost every home in CA has stopped providing cash to its owner for doing nothing. Home equity extraction was disproportionately spent locally, and taxed locally. 5-10% of California's GDP may have been from home equity extraction spending in 2003 to early 2007. With indirect effects, it might have been 15%.
What do I think will happen? CA's population and GDP will continue dropping at least through 2010, probably 2011. As home prices bottom nearly 70% off peak in late 2010 or 2011, more people and companies will be tempted to come back. The free houses in the desert could be a problem or opportunity. If you can get the employers to come, it will be great. It you are getting people moving there because they have no jobs and just want cheap housing, it will be awful. CA will ultimately be pulled out of its recession by something besides real estate. Given its fragmented economy, the growth will come in many places. The job growth will eventually come from the types of jobs which were run out of state or into the immense tracts in the desert: jobs for middle class people who wanted to be homeowners. If you have a good job in LA, everything will seem to be cheap: houses, landscapers, food, etc.
TX will do somewhat better. However, the unreported story here is high end homes accumulating in the foreclosure pipeline. Nothing like CA, but there is a lot of pressure on homes above about$500k. No jumbo conforming in Dallas.
