Leading indicators for recession

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whynowwhynot_IHB

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<p>I am a motorcycle rider, riding every day for two years 10 miles from my Balboa rental to work in Tustin. When I started, I could see a premium car practically every traffic light - Ferraris, Bentleys, Lambos, Masaratis...Now, these are all but gone. </p>

<p>The gas hog Corvettes and higher-end Mustangs like the Shelby also gone. </p>

<p>I can still see the Porches and the Lexus, but even the Series 7/6 Bimmers are rare, and so are the AMGs. </p>

<p>I do see many more Toyotas than i used to. Even Chevys. I see Prius a lot too. </p>

<p>Funny, I am sure people are justifying their newfound frugality by being "environmentally conscious".</p>

<p> </p>
 
My wife went out with friends Saturday evening to the Spectrum. They went to a restaurant that converts to a nightclub after a certain hour. Ordinarily this place is very crowded, but she said there were 5 people in the whole place Saturday night. I guess the party is over...
 
Maybe I am the one who brings the crowd, but I noticed the complete opposite of both lendingmaestro and IR's "lack of traffic" observation during this past week.



Last Wed night, my wife picked me up from SNA around 6pm, and we went to Javris at Spectrum right away. I usually call ahead, but this time I figure it is Wed night, and economic is close to recession, so I told my wife we should have no issue getting a table, and at worst, we can just sit at the bar as we sometimes do. We valeted our car right at the front, and guess what? the wait was 1 hour to 1.5 hours! There is no large parties I can see. So we went to the bar, guess what? the bar is jam packed too! We were able to find a table next to the bartender swing counter opening after a while, which is not a good location.



Friday night, we took the kids to yard house. We arrived at 510. We never have to wait at that time for tables though the bar usually packed. ( for those of you don't know, yard house has happy hour between 3 to 6pm , and nearly all their appetizers are half off, beers are $3.25). We waited for 35 mins before we got our table. We barely made the "happy hour".



Opah's at Aliso Viejo: I go there sometimes, and drive by there sometimes. I don't see any lack of traffic recently.



The only place that I notied a big traffic drop is lunch time at Maccoroni Grill and Chill's.
 
Javier's is ALWAYS jam packed. So is the Yard House, which is a great place to burn of a shitty day with happy hour. I can see Yard House traffic increasing as people feel driven to drink.
 
<p>I guess I like "always jam packed" places. </p>

<p>lendingmaestro, i think you are right about yard house. lol.. </p>

<p>any theory behind why Javier is always jam packed? </p>

<p>Maccronic grill at Tustin market places are crowded during dinner time. At least that is my experiences. ALWAYS A WAIT during weekends. </p>

<p>BJs at the shopping center has been crowded during dinner time , especially Friday / nights. I didn't notice any traffic drop. </p>

<p>I don' t know about week day nights, as we usually take to goes if we don't cook.</p>

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Maybe everyone is going to the District. We tried eating at the Auld Dubliner, and it was very crowded on a Friday as was JT Schmidts.
 
IR,



I haven't been to any of District restaraunts. Any good ones you will recommend? My friend just went to "the winery" there, I was told the food is good, wine list is good. But everything is "a La Carte", so gets very expensive.



Have they opened the "blue water grill" at the district?



Also, I just found out the Peppinos just opened their woodbury center location. The waiter told me their business is slowly picking up by the day as more and more people finding out their new location.
 
<a href="http://www.thedistricttl.com/shop-dine-play/shop-dine-play.aspx">The District</a>.


We gave up on the Auld Dubliner. It looks like a place I would have really enjoyed 20 years ago. The bar scene was happening. I guess I am too old now





The food at JT Schmids was expensive and average tasting. I ordered their jambalaya, so there isn't much excuse for bland taste. I have eaten at the Go Roma Italian place down by the fountain at the theater entrance. It is very inexpensive, and the food quality is high. We also ate at Charaposa Grill. We enjoyed our meal. The chef came out and introduced himself, and he seemed genuinely interested in providing a nice dining experience. We will go back there again. The Bluewater Grill is not open yet.
 
I went to the Claim Jumper in Seal Beach last night and ended up leaving the place because it was packed and I didn't want to wait.





Though I appreciate what people are trying to do here, I think there is too much reliance on anecdotal evidence to confirm pre-existing beliefs. Though it is obvious that the debt of any expansion or recession will be somewhat regional in nature, if you follow data from ECRI, then we aren't in a recession right now, and at this point in time, it isn't certain that we will enter a recession. The economy is vulnerable to a recession on a national level, and something like the collapse of a bank or another terrorist attack could throw us into recession.





But the best available data says that we aren't there yet.
 
All economic data has a built in lag. That is why anecdotal data can be predictive even if it is less accurate. Does anyone here know someone who is saying business is booming? Perhaps an exporter?
 
Actually there are leading indicators, lagging indicators, and coincident indicators. Restaurant consumption would be a coincident indicator. As far as local businesses doing well, I realize that I am in a specialized niche, but things are going well where I work.
 
Try the Asian nachos at Chaparosa Grill. Not good for you at all, but delicious. I went there for happy hour a few weeks ago during the week and we had the place to ourselves
 
There is a great article on MarketWatch, <a href="http://tinyurl.com/ytphhq">citing the three of indicators showing the signs of a recession</a>.





<strong>It's much too soon for an official judgment on whether the U.S. economy has fallen into a recession, but early indications show that a recession may have already begun. </strong>

<p><em> Of the five monthly economic indicators used to judge whether the U.S. economy has fallen into a recession, three are declining and one other is flattening out. Three of the five numbers peaked in September. Only one has grown with any vigor over the past few months, but it's starting to look weaker. </em></p>

<p><em>calling a recession is as much art as science.</em></p>

<p><em> The numbers now in hand are preliminary, subject to large revisions. What now seems very weak could be revised to show significant growth. That's why the academics who decide whether we've been in a recession wait a long time before making a judgment. </em></p>

<p><em> In some cases, the most recent data are more than two months old, a frustrating delay for those who want to know what's happening right now. What now looks like a peak in activity could turn out to be a local peak or a false top, with the economy regaining strength in the next few months. </em></p>

<p><em> "There are a lot of local peaks that don't mean anything," said Chris Varvares, president of Macroeconomic Advisers, an economic forecasting firm. </em></p>

<p><em>The evidence currently available is by no means definitive about a recession, but it is not encouraging.</em></p>

<p><em>There's no easy formula for analyzing the five indicators and only a fool would try to do it in real time.</em></p>

<p>Personally, I have seen a mixed amount of business at restaurants. Some seem to be jam packed, and others seem to be dead. I checked out bizben for restaurants for sale, and there was 300 restaurant related, of the 971 total businesses for sale in OC. Seems high to me, but I will try to check for updates to see if it is.</p>

<p>What I do know, are the jobs in the restaurant service industry are down year over year for December. Of the 1200 jobs lost, 700 of them were in the full-service restaurant service sector. Does anyone want to take a guess... in what year that there was a YOY job loss in that sector for December in the last 17 years? Here is a hint... there has only been 1 year that has happened.


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<p>It's possible that, dining out with a group of friends, has some therapeutic value to it. Would it be more telling to track none-essential indulgence spending such as business at a Nail Salon where consumer spend her/his money alone?</p>

<p>The nail salon next to the Quail Hill Albertsons used to be packed when my wife used to go there. I imagined other salons were the same. We have been working/living overseas for about 7 months now. I wonder how the Irvine nail salons are doing nowadays....</p>
 
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