[quote author="socalmd" date=1237888276]the fact is nobody knows if this is a bottom or it has more to fall. Those that think it's going down another 25-50% are hoping it will...doesn't make it so. IMO this may be good time to buy the right property, maybe a foreclosure or short sell. I do think the housing market is similar to the stock market. They say buy when there is blood on the streets, and there definitely is blood on the streets now. I can't tell you how many stock message boards have people predicting stock xyz will go to zero, only to see it go up 50%. It's all an unpredictable game. Those that say they know what is going to happen are fooling themselves. Just because housing prices
SHOULD go down another 25% doesn't been they WILL. My wife and I plan to start looking for a property in the next few months.</blockquote>
If you find a property you like, can afford without pressure, and are not worried about being underwater for a period of time, now is not a bad time to buy. Interest rates are very low which is a big help in affordability. As has been pointed out on several occasions there are plenty examples of properties that are selling right around rental equivalence. However, the downward price adjustments have not hit evenly across areas. Ladera Ranch, an area in which you have expressed some interest, has been battered. Meanwhile CDM appears to have fared rather well to this point.
I would dispute the fact that nobody knows if this is the bottom for housing. Only through willful blindness could one ignore the overwhelminG downward pressure on housing. Here is a quick recap:
1. Down payments
2. Income verification
3. Credit requirements
4. Job Losses
5. High inventory
6. low transaction volume
7. Increasing delinquency rates on 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 vintage mortgage pools
8. Coming Alt-A resets
9. Massive increase in Jumbo defaults
10. Ratio of median price to income ratios continues at unsustainable levels
If you want to see what truly affordable housing markets look click on this link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29793370
Now, I don't believe we will get there, but it does underscore just how ludicrous the local housing market became.