Irvine home prices since 2005

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bigmoneysalsa_IHB

bigmoneysalsa_IHB

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As a statistic, the median home price can be misleading.

Taking a cue from one of my heros Robert Shiller, I went on zillow.com and found every Irvine resale home I could that had a recorded sale date in both 2007 and either 2005 or 2006. I found 13 (no cherry picking). Here they are:

1505 Solvay Aisle # 122

01/26/2007: $383,000

07/11/2005: $398,000

182 W Yale Loop # 14

01/23/2007: $770,000

05/25/2005: $650,000

320 Tangelo # 329

01/25/2007: $390,000

04/18/2005: $370,000

1804 Crescent Oak

01/22/2007: $455,810

10/04/2005: $510,000

3 Winterhaven # 23

01/17/2007: $605,000

08/12/2005: $571,500

22 Orange Blossom # 58

01/16/2007: $299,000

04/18/2005: $290,000

2 Periwinkle

01/05/2007: $895,000

09/30/2005: $900,000

57 Bridgeport,

01/22/2007: $630,500

08/05/2005: $649,000

8 Lakepines

01/19/2007: $400,000

01/20/2005: $385,000

31 Terracima

01/09/2007: $663,000

02/16/2005: $618,000

11 Remington

01/08/2007: $431,000

01/31/2006: $440,000

14911 Doheny Cir

01/18/2007: $815,000

08/10/2006: $815,000

214 Tall Oak

01/26/2007: $700,000

11/03/2006: $757,500

After adjusting for inflation (.25% per month) 9 of the 13 went down in price, 3 of the 13 went up in price, and 1 (320 Tangelo) basically broke even. Of the homes that showed a nominal gain (6), all but one was sold May 2005 or earlier; the one exception was sold Aug 2005. The 3 homes with 2006 sales all had real loss The average real loss across all 13 homes was 2.7%.

Disclaimers:

1) This is a very small sample, but its the best I can do for now. It was pretty easy to do though so I plan to keep checking throughout 2007.

2) Sometimes zillow shows refinances as sales.
 
I looked at 182 W Yale Loop # 14 as a rental just before it sold. The owner was a woman who bought that property and one in Mission Viejo with 100% financing 2 days apart (each transaction was hidden from the other lender). She got very lucky to find a greater fool to buy her out at a profit. The realtor even told me it was a failed flip. That transaction is a bit odd to me because I believe that price is over asking. Mortgage fraud or complete idiot? Who knows?
 
Just a couple of points: to play devil's advocate, are you not cherry picking the data? Certainly, there were probably other transactions where the players made out like bandits (seriously). That said, I think your points are well taken. Median price (OC Register's Jon Lansner's green arrow) is misleading. In fact, the fed tracks same property sales history (and for the life of me I can't remember the term for it) which I think is a lot more accurate.
 
IIIrvine,

No, I didn't cherry pick the examples. That being said it is doubtful that the 13 I found are anywhere near all of the homes that fall into the category I was looking for. They just happen to be all the ones that I found using zillow's interface. I'm sure there are much better databases out there with much better data, but they are not free or easy to use like zillow. And besides, I'd say whoever sold 182 W Yale Loop sure made out like a bandit .

I agree that the best indexes are the ones that use sale-home sales, and that was the point of my humble little exercise. Probably the best one is the Case Shiller price index used by S&P, which unfortunately lumps OC into the greater LA region.
 
Interesting. 29 Shade Tree in Turtle Ridge sold for $1.010 million in May 2005. It is now for sale for 1.099 million. What do you sages think?
 
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