Irvine home prices since 2005

bigmoneysalsa_IHB

bigmoneysalsa_IHB

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<p>As a statistic, the median home price <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/06/business/06leonhardt.html?">can</a> <a href="http://piggington.com/what_the_median_does_not_tell_you">be</a> <a href="http://www.kauaihomesales.com/real-estate-headlines.htm">misleading.</a></p>

<p>Taking a cue from one of my heros <a href="http://www.economy.com/home/products/housepriceforecasts.asp">Robert Shiller</a>, I went on <a href="http://www.zillow.com/">zillow.com</a> and found every Irvine resale home I could that had a recorded sale date in both 2007 and either 2005 or 2006. I found 13 (no cherry picking). Here they are:</p>

<p>1505 Solvay Aisle # 122


01/26/2007: $383,000


07/11/2005: $398,000</p>

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<p></p>

182 W Yale Loop # 14


01/23/2007: $770,000


05/25/2005: $650,000

<p> </p>

<p> </p>

<p></p>

320 Tangelo # 329


01/25/2007: $390,000


04/18/2005: $370,000

<p> </p>

<p>1804 Crescent Oak


01/22/2007: $455,810


10/04/2005: $510,000</p>

<p>3 Winterhaven # 23


01/17/2007: $605,000


08/12/2005: $571,500 </p>

<p>22 Orange Blossom # 58


01/16/2007: $299,000


04/18/2005: $290,000</p>

<p>2 Periwinkle


01/05/2007: $895,000


09/30/2005: $900,000</p>

<p>57 Bridgeport,


01/22/2007: $630,500


08/05/2005: $649,000 </p>

<p>8 Lakepines


01/19/2007: $400,000


01/20/2005: $385,000</p>

<p>31 Terracima


01/09/2007: $663,000


02/16/2005: $618,000</p>

<p>11 Remington


01/08/2007: $431,000


01/31/2006: $440,000</p>

<p>14911 Doheny Cir


01/18/2007: $815,000


08/10/2006: $815,000 </p>

<p>214 Tall Oak


01/26/2007: $700,000


11/03/2006: $757,500</p>

<p>After adjusting for inflation (.25% per month) 9 of the 13 went down in price, 3 of the 13 went up in price, and 1 (320 Tangelo) basically broke even. Of the homes that showed a nominal gain (6), all but one was sold May 2005 or earlier; the one exception was sold Aug 2005. The 3 homes with 2006 sales all had real loss The average real loss across all 13 homes was 2.7%.</p>

<p>Disclaimers:</p>

<p>1) This is a very small sample, but its the best I can do for now. It was pretty easy to do though so I plan to keep checking throughout 2007.</p>

<p>2) Sometimes zillow shows refinances as sales.</p>
 
I looked at 182 W Yale Loop # 14 as a rental just before it sold. The owner was a woman who bought that property and one in Mission Viejo with 100% financing 2 days apart (each transaction was hidden from the other lender). She got very lucky to find a greater fool to buy her out at a profit. The realtor even told me it was a failed flip. That transaction is a bit odd to me because I believe that price is over asking. Mortgage fraud or complete idiot? Who knows?

 
Just a couple of points: to play devil's advocate, are you not cherry picking the data? Certainly, there were probably other transactions where the players made out like bandits (seriously). That said, I think your points are well taken. Median price (OC Register's Jon Lansner's green arrow) is misleading. In fact, the fed tracks same property sales history (and for the life of me I can't remember the term for it) which I think is a lot more accurate.
 
<p>IIIrvine,</p>

<p>No, I didn't cherry pick the examples. That being said it is doubtful that the 13 I found are anywhere near all of the homes that fall into the category I was looking for. They just happen to be all the ones that I found using zillow's interface. I'm sure there are much better databases out there with much better data, but they are not free or easy to use like zillow. And besides, I'd say whoever sold 182 W Yale Loop sure made out like a bandit .</p>

<p>I agree that the best indexes are the ones that use sale-home sales, and that was the point of my humble little exercise. Probably the best one is the <a href="http://www.globalindices.standardandpoors.com/data/pdf/CSHomePrice_History_10451.xls">Case Shiller price index used by S&P</a>, which unfortunately lumps OC into the greater LA region.</p>
 
Interesting. 29 Shade Tree in Turtle Ridge sold for $1.010 million in May 2005. It is now for sale for 1.099 million. What do you sages think?
 
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