Irvine 2018 Home Prices Poll

[irvinehomeowner]

EDIT: Changed the poll to 1 year due to feedback. Please re-vote if you already voted.

I should have done this with the price of Netflix and the Dow index, but let's see what the collective predicts about Irvine home prices.

I put the range as 1-5 years because as I believe we all agree, it's very hard to time and drops or rises... and after 5 years, the cycle will most likely change. 1 year is the minimum as it will help smooth out any seasonal changes.

You can vote on 2 options, so you have outs.

Personally, I think prices have to fall because they have been rising since 2013 and Irvine prices are redic right now, but because it's only been 5 years, I could still see prices going up 5-10% for the next year or two. However, Trump might tweet something out and that could cause an economic downturn so I can also see prices drop 5-10% by 2020.

But I really can't see a 20%+ drop happening in Irvine unless it's a zombocalypse.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

So what would be the baseline to measure the increase/drop?

For example, Kenkoko post a house with about 150k reduction in just 7 days. I come in and buy it. Is that the baseline for me? The previous buyers purchased at 525k in 2002. That?s a gain of 500k in 15 years and if it get recorded the sold transaction is of today, then it would be a gain, no? If the number makes sense then buy.

I buy it and hold it, how do you measure the drop?

What I am getting at is a lot of time economists like to throw out numbers in a general sense and paint with a wide stroke of brush and not pin point to an individual transaction.

 

[DrTravel]

I voted "other" because I have no clue and have the cajones to admit it. These types of surveys are notoriously useless as are most predictions. Remember when Elaine Garzarelli predicted the 1987 stock market crash and was on everybody's got to interview list? Well since then her predicting the future record has been very poor. She got lucky once in her life but it was hardly skill. Don't remember exactly but how many other crashes did she predict before and after 1987 that never happened.

Any way my 1.5 cents...

 

[meccos12]

You've wanted people to give you specific predictions about housing price changes yet you ask with a 1-5 year range.  with a 1-5 year range, technically all these options could be correct.  Perhaps you should ask what will prices be in specifically in 1 year or 5 years, not 1-5 years.

My predictions:
in 1 year: I expect 5% drop.  in 5 years I expect 10% drop, only because its on the way up from a 15-20% drop between years 1-5.   

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I voted "other" because I have no clue and have the cajones to admit it. These types of surveys are notoriously useless as are most predictions. Remember when Elaine Garzarelli predicted the 1987 stock market crash and was on everybody's got to interview list? Well since then her predicting the future record has been very poor. She got lucky once in her life but it was hardly skill. Don't remember exactly but how many other crashes did she predict before and after 1987 that never happened.

Any way my 1.5 cents...

It's not a prediction really... it's a poll.

The reason why I like to use polls is:

1. Because people who don't normally post, might answer a poll
2. You can use the aggregate information just to get a feel for what people are thinking.

For instance, right now the majority thinks it will be flat or go slightly up. But with a sample of only 15 votes, that's nothing, however it does give you an idea of what people are leaning towards.

So what would be the baseline to measure the increase/drop?

We can look at Zillow or Redfin charts to get an overall look.

What I am getting at is a lot of time economists like to throw out numbers in a general sense and paint with a wide stroke of brush and not pin point to an individual transaction.

As I stated in another thread, you can always cherry pick for an actual percentage, but you can more or less get the idea across a range... there will always be singular data points that show otherwise. We could use the median sales price for the middle 6 months (Apr-Sep) of 2018 and compare that against the middle 6 months of 2019 and then 2010 and so on.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

You've wanted people to give you specific predictions about housing price changes yet you ask with a 1-5 year range.  with a 1-5 year range, technically all these options could be correct.  Perhaps you should ask what will prices be in specifically in 1 year or 5 years, not 1-5 years.

My predictions:
in 1 year: I expect 5% drop.  in 5 years I expect 10% drop, only because its on the way up from a 15-20% drop between years 1-5.   

On the other thread I wanted more specifics because people were being vague. In this poll, I set a range expectation because people were saying you can't really predict based on 1 year or 5 years. What I plan to do, if we are still around, is check each year and then combine all the data for an overall number. This is by no way scientific but merely an exercise to indicate a direction and overall feel for what we are thinking.

But I appreciate your detailed post... although it's hard for me to see a 20% drop in Irvine.

 

[fortune11]

So what would be the baseline to measure the increase/drop?

For example, Kenkoko post a house with about 150k reduction in just 7 days. I come in and buy it. Is that the baseline for me? The previous buyers purchased at 525k in 2002. That?s a gain of 500k in 15 years and if it get recorded the sold transaction is of today, then it would be a gain, no? If the number makes sense then buy.

I buy it and hold it, how do you measure the drop?

What I am getting at is a lot of time economists like to throw out numbers in a general sense and paint with a wide stroke of brush and not pin point to an individual transaction.

That is a key point

Need to first establish a measurement baseline

Without that any predictions and subsequent results can be interpreted many different ways

 

[paydawg]

You should provide specific time frames instead of a range.  There's a lot that will happen in Year 1 vs Year 5.  Personally, I think there will be a 5% drop in Year 1 (compared to today) and a 5% increase by Year 5 (compared to today). 

 

[bones]

This is an attractive and nice poll.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I was trying to keep it simple without having to do a poll for each year.

If you want to be more specific, that's what the 'Other' choice and then posting your specifics are for.

As I said above, in 1 year, I will do a median of the middle 6 months of 2018 and compare that to the middle 6 months of 2019 and then do that for each year up until 2023 (if I'm still alive). Then I will post a table of results and you can extrapolate from there.

I guess I should redo this but I didn't want to do so many options.

It's funny, when I asked this question on other threads, no one would say specifics and now everyone is asking for specifics... so confusing.

I will change this to 1 year.

Here are the results before I remove and re-add the poll:
Flat - no change 8 (25%)
5% down 5 (15.6%)
10% down 3 (9.4%)
20%+ down 0 (0%)
50%+ down (2008 prediction!) 0 (0%)
5% up 5 (15.6%)
10% up 6 (18.8%)
20%+ up 2 (6.3%)
Other (please post below) 3 (9.4%)
Total Members Voted: 23

 

[Mety]

23 votes and not a Thank You?
Anyways, the vote could be pretty biased since most voters here are Irvine home owners. Do you see how nobody voted for 2008 level?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Anyways, the vote could be pretty biased since most voters here are Irvine home owners. Do you see how nobody voted for 2008 level?

It should be biased. Isn't that what polls are for?

And I'm asking specifically for Irvine homes in an Irvine Real Estate sub forum on an Irvine forum website because those participating should know quite a bit about Irvine homes.

 

[meccos12]

Love the guy/gal who responded with up 20%.  Even biggest housing bulls wouldnt take it that far.  LOL

 

[Kenkoko]

Polls are fun, thanks IHO!

I agree with IHO that polls are great at getting a feel for what people are thinking/leaning towards. Irvine also have lots of Chinese FCBs with serious herd mentality. Consumer sentiment matters.

 

[fortune11]

So the distribution or consensus on the few data points we have is right around flat to down 5 percent

Which means if you are planning to buy for lifestyle change , timing it carefully is not as important as getting the right home (And perhaps the right deal)

And investors should not even bother at this point with the ?beta? . There is always the possibility you can find a fixer upper gem , but probably won?t in this day and age of informed  (and way too optimistic in cases) sellers .

 

[Mety]

But what if the poll result turns out to be totally wrong?

 

[paperboyNC]

But what if the poll result turns out to be totally wrong?

A global recession may come soon and worldwide real estate prices could plummet.

What will be the safest place to have your assets in that case?

 

[fortune11]

But what if the poll result turns out to be totally wrong?

A global recession may come soon and worldwide real estate prices could plummet.

What will be the safest place to have your assets in that case?

2-5 year treasuries

As fed will start cutting rates then , and you could actually get a much better return than the indicated 2.9 percent or so yield . Returns will also crush falling inflation .

 

[fortune11]

But what if the poll result turns out to be totally wrong?

Wrong on the upside ? Or the downside ?

Both are very different things

I am not a domain expert like USC or others here ? but I will say this from a pure outcome distributions perspective ? real estate in Irvine is a low volatility asset ? with a lot lower risk of meaningful breakout in either direction.  Take this for what it?s worth .

 

[zubs]

But what if the poll result turns out to be totally wrong?

No one knew they would still be on talkirvine 10 years later.  So lets just say we are still on talk Irvine in 2030, and a poll like this comes up again.  You can say look at the poll IHO did back in 2018 and it was totally wrong!.  That's gotta be worth something dammit.