Irvine 2018 Home Prices Poll

[meccos12]

So the distribution or consensus on the few data points we have is right around flat to down 5 percent

Which means if you are planning to buy for lifestyle change , timing it carefully is not as important as getting the right home (And perhaps the right deal)

And investors should not even bother at this point with the ?beta? . There is always the possibility you can find a fixer upper gem , but probably won?t in this day and age of informed  (and way too optimistic in cases) sellers .

If this poll turns out to be correct and there is a 0-5% correct in the next year, timing the price decrease is not too important (although 50K saving is not chump change either).  However, with rising inventories and decreasing demand the main benefit to waiting may not be a price saving but rather a higher chance of finding the best house in the best location. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Wrong or right, it will have value in 1 year.

But now I have a question... for the farther out poll... what would be a reasonable time frame expectation? 5 years? 7 years? Maybe 4 years so we will be in the middle of the next presidential term (whoever that may be)?

 

[Mety]

I don?t believe someone can actually predict the future 100% correct. A poll like this is fun, but should not be used as a guidance to buyers which I?m sure no one here would intend to.

Even with historical datas and experts? inputs, I see them turning out to be wrong more than correct at the end of the day.

I think providing assets like price sheets and how they are appreciating with new lising prices and stuff are more fact driven. For exmaple, Delano just released a new phase couple days ago and their plan1, livin? above garages, went up on their price and plan2 went down a little. Even with the hottest attached product from Brookfield is having a bit of discount with a new phase and not to mention I see more and more emails from new builders with more anxious tones like ?Hurry! Move-in ready available!?

Are we having a flat or 5% fall in a year? I don?t know. And no one can know. But there are facts you can see with reducing price sheets and discounts here and there.

 

[fortune11]

I don?t believe someone can actually predict the future 100% correct. A poll like this is fun, but should not be used as a guidance to buyers which I?m sure no one here would intend to.

Even with historical datas and experts? inputs, I see them turning out to be wrong more than correct at the end of the day.

I think providing assets like price sheets and how they are appreciating with new lising prices and stuff are more fact driven. For exmaple, Delano just released a new phase couple days ago and their plan1, livin? above garages, went up on their price and plan2 went down a little. Even with the hottest attached product from Brookfield is having a bit of discount with a new phase and not to mention I see more and more emails from new builders with more anxious tones like ?Hurry! Move-in ready available!?

Are we having a flat or 5% fall in a year? I don?t know. And no one can know. But there are facts you can see with reducing price sheets and discounts here and there.

Polls are indicative of sentiment just as consumer confidence is indicative of economic activity

The only precise things in life are the laws of physics and even there we have debate at the subatomic level

Everything else is a subjective lens . Ultimately unless you are actually transacting in the market the value of a home is fictional ? this is why treating all this religiously like a science is futile .

A simple logic I follow is ? buy when an asset is flashing green and sell when it is flashing red. Everything else in the middle / yellow is subjective anyways ? and right now we are in that zone ? where both eyephones and IHOs interpretations  can be correct.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

42 members in and while it's heavier on the 5% down, it's not much more than votes looking at an increase.

Even at 5% down, if rates go up a bit, seems like a zero sum situation.

 

[Mety]

How do we know if it will go down 5%?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

This is no way scientific but it seems by the poll more members here think Irvine real estate is flat or will be up.

There is also one person who think prices will drop 20% and another who thinks over 50%... maybe those are joke votes.

 

[meccos12]

This is no way scientific but it seems by the poll more members here think Irvine real estate is flat or will be up.

I think you really have a biased view.  How does your poll show people think it will be flat or UP?  It seems pretty damn split to me between the down and up votes.  Not that it matters but if anything there is more down vote than up. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

This is no way scientific but it seems by the poll more members here think Irvine real estate is flat or will be up.

I think you really have a biased view.  How does your poll show people think it will be flat or UP?  It seems pretty damn split to me between the down and up votes.  Not that it matters but if anything there is more down vote than up. 

I should have screen shot it when I posted too. There was no bias, I can do math.

Only 58 members had voted when I posted, and there were more up votes than down votes. Now it favors down by 2 votes. Each member is allowed to vote for 2 different choices, so that could be a 4 vote swing somewhere.

So then let me change what I said... seems more members think it will be flat.

 

[newPParker]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/267-Carmine-92618/home/147995821

House was bought from builder for about 883k, closed on may 2018. On the market now by the owner I believe (who is also a realtor), for 968k. no significant any work beyond what was bought.

Is the market still hot or greedy investor?

 

[Goriot]

How about this one? $500,000 (pre selling expense) and 20% return in 5 months?
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5-Sunset-Cv-92602/home/58551701

 

[irvinehomeowner]

At about 5 months in and 65 members later and this poll favors slightly 5% down. But with almost an equal percentage of 5% up, I'm going to call it flattish for now.

Is this right... or do we think it's more down now than up based on the data we are seeing?

 

[Mety]

At about 5 months in and 65 members later and this poll favors slightly 5% down. But with almost an equal percentage of 5% up, I'm going to call it flattish for now.

Is this right... or do we think it's more down now than up based on the data we are seeing?

I assume the poll votes are mostly from Irvine home owners. I don't think they would vote anything negative since it directly relates to their home values, but the fact that the most voted ones are Flat and 5% down is pretty interesting. Also IHO made this poll in Sept 2018. I think the price actually went down from that time. So given the default home appreciation over each year, the more accurate price reduction that happened would be 5-10% down so far, also considering the majority of the people in this forum were seeking for $1-1.5m homes which is suffering more than sub-$1m range. https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,16641.45/viewresults.html

Just my take. I also can safely say we will see flat to at least 10% down this year alone depends on the home condition and the lot location. 10% is actually a pretty huge number. For example, if you were in for $800k market that would be $720k with 10% cut.

 

[usctrojancpa]

At about 5 months in and 65 members later and this poll favors slightly 5% down. But with almost an equal percentage of 5% up, I'm going to call it flattish for now.

Is this right... or do we think it's more down now than up based on the data we are seeing?

I assume the poll votes are mostly from Irvine home owners. I don't think they would vote anything negative since it directly relates to their home values, but the fact that the most voted ones are Flat and 5% down is pretty interesting. Also IHO made this poll in Sept 2018. I think the price actually went down from that time. So given the default home appreciation over each year, the more accurate price reduction that happened would be 5-10% down so far, also considering the majority of the people in this forum were seeking for $1-1.5m homes which is suffering more than sub-$1m range. https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,16641.45/viewresults.html

Just my take. I also can safely say we will see flat to at least 10% down this year alone depends on the home condition and the lot location. 10% is actually a pretty huge number. For example, if you were in for $800k market that would be $720k with 10% cut.

Not sure if we see a 10% price decline in 2019 unless we are close to recession and/or rates head back up to 5%+.  There will new buyers and investors that probably come into the market once prices were down 5-8%.  I think the higher end will drop prices more than the lower end.  The things to wait will be resale inventory levels (I'm curious if we'll close the 1,000+ mark during the peak summer selling season) and sales volume (lower sales volume usually indicates a wider bid/ask price spread).

 

[irvineband]

USCT, are 4bd houses selling for 1.00-1.05-1.1 qualify as lower end?

 

[usctrojancpa]

USCT, are 4bd houses selling for 1.00-1.05-1.1 qualify as lower end?

I'd stay the Irvine market goes something like this for me...sub $800k is the lower end of the market, $800k to $1.25m is middle of the market, and $1.25m+ is the higher end of the market.  The $800k to $1.25m market is softer than the sub $800k market but homes that are priced right and that look good go into escrow within weeks (don't see multiple offers like some of the sub $800k listings that I've encountered on the buyer side though). 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So how is it looking?

Looks like the collective has it right... flat to slightly down or slightly up.

 

[Mety]

So how is it looking?

Looks like the collective has it right... flat to slightly down or slightly up.

I think it's about flat. But those who still list overpriced are not helping the market at all. They're actually hurting by sitting on the market a long time. Those who list a bit below (that's still pretty high to be honest) are doing well.

 

[Kings]

So how is it looking?

Looks like the collective has it right... flat to slightly down or slightly up.

I think it's about flat. But those who still list overpriced are not helping the market at all. They're actually hurting by sitting on the market a long time. Those who list a bit below (that's still pretty high to be honest) are doing well.

i would argue that those who list overpriced are helping move volume for appropriately priced product since they appear more reasonable in comparison

 

[Mety]

So how is it looking?

Looks like the collective has it right... flat to slightly down or slightly up.

I think it's about flat. But those who still list overpriced are not helping the market at all. They're actually hurting by sitting on the market a long time. Those who list a bit below (that's still pretty high to be honest) are doing well.

i would argue that those who list overpriced are helping move volume for appropriately priced product since they appear more reasonable in comparison

Yeah, I guess that's true too. But for a long run, if those homes just sit and start to pile up, the buyers are not going get fooled any more. That means the RE will have to experience a crash/downturn, minor or major. Irvine is doing not too bad so far, but there are other cities suffering which could lead a nation wide suffering.