[quote author="skek" date=1228445527][quote author="morekaos" date=1228440881][quote author="skek" date=1228440202]The auto bailout is moving towards a pre-packaged BK for GM and there is political pressure to let at least one of the Big 3 (i.e., Chrysler) fail and be absorbed by the other two. If that happens, the psychological impact is going to push us lower than the current lows, IMO. We'll know by the end of the year.
The hardest part of reading this market is all the government intervention. It's hard to bet against the United States government. Unfortunately, in the case of the massive government spending to keep financials and autos afloat, I think the medicine may end up being worse for the patient than the illness.</blockquote>
I think they are going to try and soft land that BK. regardless I think it may already be in the market....it expects it
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8NiLMoTo1v8&refer=worldwide#">GM, Chrysler May Accept Bankruptcy to Receive Bailout </a></blockquote>
Indeed, but a GM bankruptcy would be equivalent to a run on a bank in the public's eye, many of whom are still not paying attention and figures the government will "fix" this. I suspect it weakens consumer confidence, further suppresses consumer spending and generally provokes the next step down in the death spiral.</blockquote>
I think a lot of perception is based on whether any bankruptcy was a liquidation versus a reorganization.