I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED!!!

I loathe op-ed pieces. Occasionally you find a good one. This is a good one:



<a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-roberts25-2009jun25,0,2015715.story">http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-roberts25-2009jun25,0,2015715.story</a>



<strong>Why California can't be governed

Six key factors, including Prop. 13 and term limits, have brought California to the brink</strong>



<blockquote>Thirty years later, the ghost of Jarvis and his legacy initiative still aim antipathy, scorn and disdain at California's government and its leaders. Proposition 13 was the first, and most far-reaching, in a cascade of political decisions over the last three decades that have shaped the dysfunctional structure of governance in the state.



Simply put, California today is ungovernable.



As state and local officials struggle to weather the state's fiscal crisis, they wield power with the damaged machinery of a patchwork government system that lacks accountability, encourages stalemate and drifts but cannot be steered.



In this system, <em><strong>elected leaders carry responsibility, but not authority, for far-reaching policies about public revenues and resources</strong></em>. That's not governance -- it's reactive management of a deeply flawed status quo.

</blockquote>


I'm not going to cite the whole thing, but it flat nails it IMO.
 
Again, the second coming of 1994 and the feds forced hand at raising interest rates. Will OC go BK again?



<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/19/news/economy/higher_inflation.fortune/index.htm">Here come higher interest rates</a>



Indeed, the trend towards far higher rates is already beginning: Since March, the yield on the 10-year treasury has jumped from 2.5% to 3.8%, sending prices? -- which move in the opposite direction -- ??down a staggering 34%. "We're in the early innings of a very long bear market in treasuries," warns Michael Darda, chief economist at trading and research firm MKM Partners.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1245976003]I loathe op-ed pieces. Occasionally you find a good one. This is a good one:



<a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-roberts25-2009jun25,0,2015715.story">http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-roberts25-2009jun25,0,2015715.story</a>



<strong>Why California can't be governed

Six key factors, including Prop. 13 and term limits, have brought California to the brink</strong>



<blockquote>Thirty years later, the ghost of Jarvis and his legacy initiative still aim antipathy, scorn and disdain at California's government and its leaders. Proposition 13 was the first, and most far-reaching, in a cascade of political decisions over the last three decades that have shaped the dysfunctional structure of governance in the state.



Simply put, California today is ungovernable.



As state and local officials struggle to weather the state's fiscal crisis, they wield power with the damaged machinery of a patchwork government system that lacks accountability, encourages stalemate and drifts but cannot be steered.



In this system, <em><strong>elected leaders carry responsibility, but not authority, for far-reaching policies about public revenues and resources</strong></em>. That's not governance -- it's reactive management of a deeply flawed status quo.

</blockquote>


I'm not going to cite the whole thing, but it flat nails it IMO.</blockquote>


Yep, our State Motto: The Ungovernable State. Sad, Sad, Sad.
 
Looking to the past can help us look forward. 1990's!



<a href="http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomebuyingGuide/when-will-home-prices-recover.aspx?ref=patrick.net">4 of America's nastiest housing busts</a>
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1246061523]Looking to the past can help us look forward. 1990's!



<a href="http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomebuyingGuide/when-will-home-prices-recover.aspx?ref=patrick.net">4 of America's nastiest housing busts</a></blockquote>
So if history repeats itself then CA housing will bottom in 2012-2014 based upon the early 90s crash. Sounds about right to me.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1246064511]Or never, if it is more like the midwest or texas.</blockquote>


But the Mid-west and Texas never got quite as bubbly as the rest of us.



<a href="http://www.sacbee.com/ourregion/story/1944947.html?ref=patrick.net">Golden State losing folks as old Dust Bowl beckons</a>



OKLAHOMA CITY ? Fleeing the Great Depression and a drought unprecedented in American history, a vast wave of Oklahomans and Texans dubbed "Okies" loaded everything they could onto crowded vehicles during the 1930s and headed west for California. Today, in huge numbers, their grandchildren are moving back.
 
according to the economic forecaster i follow (who has saved me thousands by warning me to that the 2008 collapse (a deflationary spiral) was going to happen a year and a half before it did, who also made me thousands by telling me about gold's previous bull run) the stock market is on the verge of its most swift, powerfuly, and shcoking decline with the S&P ending at around 375-500



a new high will be made in gold followed by a long bear market which executes his deflationary spiral forecast. real estate will be "brought to its knees"



in 2012 or so we shall see inflation again which will send the stock market back up.
 
[quote author="sad.machine" date=1246439098]according to the economic forecaster i follow (who has saved me thousands by warning me to that the 2008 collapse (a deflationary spiral) was going to happen a year and a half before it did, who also made me thousands by telling me about gold's previous bull run) the stock market is on the verge of its most swift, powerfuly, and shcoking decline with the S&P ending at around 375-500



a new high will be made in gold followed by a long bear market which executes his deflationary spiral forecast. real estate will be "brought to its knees"



in 2012 or so we shall see inflation again which will send the stock market back up.</blockquote>


Is it awgee?
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1246457676][quote author="sad.machine" date=1246439098]according to the economic forecaster i follow (who has saved me thousands by warning me to that the 2008 collapse (a deflationary spiral) was going to happen a year and a half before it did, who also made me thousands by telling me about gold's previous bull run) the stock market is on the verge of its most swift, powerfuly, and shcoking decline with the S&P ending at around 375-500



a new high will be made in gold followed by a long bear market which executes his deflationary spiral forecast. real estate will be "brought to its knees"



in 2012 or so we shall see inflation again which will send the stock market back up.</blockquote>


Is it awgee?</blockquote>


Nah, I was out of town.

And I am very unsure of what the equities markets will do in the coming inflationary spiral. It may just take equities up with it as potential investment has to go somewhere, but I do not think that any increase in equities will match monetary or price inflation.
 
[quote author="sad.machine" date=1246575235]i thought i replied to this but perhaps i didnt



no its glenn neely</blockquote>


You did. <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewannounce/5623_9/">Read this.</a>
 
looks like the S&P (and the market in general) is continuing its slide downwards. the sellofs are not violent, YET, and because of that fact people will be convinced this is just a temporary pullback instead of a new trend.

biggest bear trap ever.
 
[quote author="sad.machine" date=1247091585]looks like the S&P (and the market in general) is continuing its slide downwards. the sellofs are not violent, YET, and because of that fact people will be convinced this is just a temporary pullback instead of a new trend.

biggest bear trap ever.</blockquote>


Slow, steady selling at the beginning of a downturn is generally a sign of institutional distribution. You will know the general public is getting involved when the VIX starts to increase and the drops become more violent.



I think we are seeing the start of the "green shoots were bullshit" selloff.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1247101093][quote author="sad.machine" date=1247091585]looks like the S&P (and the market in general) is continuing its slide downwards. the sellofs are not violent, YET, and because of that fact people will be convinced this is just a temporary pullback instead of a new trend.

biggest bear trap ever.</blockquote>


Slow, steady selling at the beginning of a downturn is generally a sign of institutional distribution. You will know the general public is getting involved when the VIX starts to increase and the drops become more violent.



I think we are seeing the start of the "green shoots were bullshit" selloff.</blockquote>


Is that why there has been heavy call buying on the VIX for the July and August contracts? Especially the OTM calls on the August contracts. I'm thinking of buying some August calls, and something to bet on the S&P headed to a 820 handle.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1247150249][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1247101093][quote author="sad.machine" date=1247091585]looks like the S&P (and the market in general) is continuing its slide downwards. the sellofs are not violent, YET, and because of that fact people will be convinced this is just a temporary pullback instead of a new trend.

biggest bear trap ever.</blockquote>


Slow, steady selling at the beginning of a downturn is generally a sign of institutional distribution. You will know the general public is getting involved when the VIX starts to increase and the drops become more violent.



I think we are seeing the start of the "green shoots were bullshit" selloff.</blockquote>


Is that why there has been heavy call buying on the VIX for the July and August contracts? Especially the OTM calls on the August contracts. I'm thinking of buying some August calls, and something to bet on the S&P headed to a 820 handle.</blockquote>
What symbol are you looking at to pick up the VIX call options? I use ^VIX in yahoo finance but it doesn't show any option chains.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1247174061][quote author="graphrix" date=1247150249][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1247101093][quote author="sad.machine" date=1247091585]looks like the S&P (and the market in general) is continuing its slide downwards. the sellofs are not violent, YET, and because of that fact people will be convinced this is just a temporary pullback instead of a new trend.

biggest bear trap ever.</blockquote>


Slow, steady selling at the beginning of a downturn is generally a sign of institutional distribution. You will know the general public is getting involved when the VIX starts to increase and the drops become more violent.



I think we are seeing the start of the "green shoots were bullshit" selloff.</blockquote>


Is that why there has been heavy call buying on the VIX for the July and August contracts? Especially the OTM calls on the August contracts. I'm thinking of buying some August calls, and something to bet on the S&P headed to a 820 handle.</blockquote>
What symbol are you looking at to pick up the VIX call options? I use ^VIX in yahoo finance but it doesn't show any option chains.</blockquote>


thinkorswim shows options on vix. graph is right...vol is pretty dry on the put side compared to the call side.
 
<strong><a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32011159/ns/business-real_estate/">Low-priced foreclosures incite bidding wars</a>

A feeding frenzy that is pitting investors against traditional home buyers</strong>



PHOENIX - Each time Lance and Kelli Thorson thought they had found their first home, someone would outbid them. It's already happened at least 15 times.



This wasn't how it was supposed to be in a depressed housing market like Phoenix. Buyers are supposed to be able to walk in, and get pretty much whatever they want. Now, the Thorsons have taken up a tactic not seen since the heydays of the housing bubble ? they are making offers on homes before they've seen them, as many as three per day.



"It's frustrating because we've jumped through all the hoops and there still isn't a reward," Kelli Thorson said.



In Phoenix suburbs and other areas of the nation saturated with foreclosed homes, low prices for bank-owned properties are sparking bidding wars that drive up sale prices, entice investors and frustrate traditional buyers who make dozens of offers and still can't land a home.



Experts say the environment is strikingly similar to what they saw at the height of the real estate bubble.



"This market is about as abnormal as the hypermarket that we came out of a few years ago," said Jay Butler, director of the Realty Studies program at Arizona State University.



Just as they did during the boom period, investors now are stocking up on homes, driving up prices and forcing traditional buyers to the sidelines in some areas, Butler said.



Because they often pay cash and buy several houses at once, investors are attractive to banks trying to shed dozens of foreclosures, he said. Traditional buyers add time and hassle to the process because they have to be approved for a mortgage.



The market won't stabilize until investor influence diminishes and it is once again driven by buyers who plan to live in the home, Butler said.



The problem is centered in newer, lower-priced communities affordable for young families and other first-time home buyers. They're the same neighborhoods that were overrun with foreclosures as mortgage rates adjusted and home values dropped.



Homes are now listed at much lower prices than when they were sold just a few years ago. In the Phoenix area, the median resale home price last month was $125,000, down from a peak of nearly $265,000 three years ago. Prices have risen from a low of $115,500 in April, when agents say they began seeing a buying frenzy.



Real estate agents have been noticing the problem for the past two to three months, said Walter Molony, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors.



It is especially acute in heavy foreclosure areas such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, southern California and southern Florida, where prices are correcting to levels well below their peak during the boom, Molony said. In those areas, it's not uncommon for sellers to get multiple offers.



The Thorsons thought they were ideal home buyers. They saved money, have good credit and little debt. But at house after house, the prices are being bid up above the asking price.



They made an offer on one bank-owned house, only to hear a counter offer that was $33,000 above the initial asking price of $117,000.



Federal legislation designed to help people stay in their homes has slowed the flow of foreclosures into the market, lowering the inventory and increasing the demand for remaining homes.



In Maricopa County, which includes metropolitan Phoenix, nearly 32,000 homes are on the market, down 30 percent from January.



In the Las Vegas area, home inventories are down nearly 10 percent since March, according to data from the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors. Last month, 4,702 homes were sold in southern Nevada, a record number; 74 percent were foreclosures.

Story continues below ?advertisement | your ad here



Las Vegas real estate agent Jonathan Abbinante said he has clients who are making three offers a day on homes they've never seen. If they get a response, they'll check out the house and decide whether to continue or back out.



He said he sees a similar frenzy for houses he's selling.



"I sell homes right over the Internet," Abbinante said. "That's what I did in 2004."



Bidding wars often result in prices higher than a home's appraised value, putting traditional buyers at a disadvantage against cash buyers who don't need an appraisal to secure a loan. That's happening a lot lately, said Jerry Lou Davis, a real-estate agent in foreclosure-heavy Merced, Calif. She saw similar activity early in the housing bubble.



For the Thorsons, with a lease expiring next month and a second child on the way, the pressure to find a home is growing. Kelli is eager to paint and decorate. She already has plans mapped out for their 2-year-old daughter's room.



"Buying a first home is supposed to be a really exciting thing to do for a family," Lance Thorson said. "But all the hoops you have to jump through kind of take away from that excitement."
 
<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE56G3NC20090720">U.S. housing inventory data points to stabilization</a>



NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. housing market is showing signs of stabilization, according to inventory data released on Monday by national real estate brokerage ZipRealty.



Emeryville, California-based ZipRealty reported a drop in the number of Multiple Listing Service-listed homes for the 12th consecutive month in June.



The number of single-family homes and condos listed for sale decreased in June from May by 2.1 percent, bringing the total number of active listings in 28 major U.S. markets to 696,858, the company said.



Additionally, ZipRealty tracked an increase in the median list price in the 28 markets to $270,440 in June from $270,027 in May. Despite the sequential increase the median list price still decreased 2.72 percent when compared to June 2008.



ZipRealty's Housing Inventory Index, compiled from local MLS data, for June showed that Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Phoenix all recorded a decline in inventory, which the company said may have contributed to some homes receiving several multiple bids.



Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles showed median list prices flatten or increase. California showed the most dramatic inventory declines, with Los Angeles showing a 53.9 percent decrease year-over-year while Bakersfield/Fresno tracked a 56.2 percent decrease.



"'Affordability' has been the buzz word in real estate this summer, and with a significant number of listed homes bank-owned we're seeing instances in some areas of banks dropping prices to generate more offers from buyers," ZipRealty President and CEO Patrick Lashinsky, said in a statement.



"If the number of home listings continue declining and buyer interest and activity remains strong, we should see sales prices and home values increase as we head into the fall," he said.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1247174061]What symbol are you looking at to pick up the VIX call options? I use ^VIX in yahoo finance but it doesn't show any option chains.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix/options">Marketwatch has it under the ticker VIX</a>. Ameritrade has it under $VIX.X. I dunno why you can't find it on Yahpoo, seeing as how you can only trade options with the VIX. Do keep in mind that it is a Euro style contract, and can't be exercised until the ex date.



We will see what happens tomorrow, but those August calls are starting to look really good. Lots of volume too.
 
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