I owe the IHB an apology, and accurate current milk pricing - IMPORTANT

Today's topic: wheat rust. We haven't had a global food shortage in a while.



<a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-wheat-rust14-2009jun14,0,2930855.story">http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-wheat-rust14-2009jun14,0,2930855.story</a>



<blockquote>The spores arrived from Kenya on dried, infected leaves ensconced in layers of envelopes.



Working inside a bio-secure greenhouse outfitted with motion detectors and surveillance cameras, government scientists at the Cereal Disease Laboratory in St. Paul, Minn., suspended the fungal spores in a light mineral oil and sprayed them onto thousands of healthy wheat plants. After two weeks, the stalks were covered with deadly reddish blisters characteristic of the scourge known as Ug99.



Nearly all the plants were goners.



Crop scientists fear the Ug99 fungus could wipe out more than 80% of worldwide wheat crops as it spreads from eastern Africa. It has already jumped the Red Sea and traveled as far as Iran. Experts say it is poised to enter the breadbasket of northern India and Pakistan, and the wind will inevitably carry it to Russia, China and even North America -- if it doesn't hitch a ride with people first.



"It's a time bomb," said Jim Peterson, a professor of wheat breeding and genetics at Oregon State University in Corvallis. "It moves in the air, it can move in clothing on an airplane. We know it's going to be here. It's a matter of how long it's going to take."

</blockquote>


Uh-oh. IMO the article is not adaquately alarmist.
 
No_Vas, I have a grape question... or really a wine question, I suppose.



Paso and north, all the way up to Castroville/Prunedale, there are miles and miles and miles of vineyards. Now, I figure some of those grapes are not wine grapes, but are used for juice and raisins and whatever. But, it seems to me that there is a finite amount of wine that can be sold. Only the best wine can really be aged and stored over time with improvement of quality. So what happens to all the "left over" wine, either whites that don't store well, or reds that aren't that good?
 
[quote author="centralcoastobserver" date=1245027370]No_Vas, I have a grape question... or really a wine question, I suppose.</blockquote>


I'll try to help!



<blockquote>Paso and north, all the way up to Castroville/Prunedale, there are miles and miles and miles of vineyards. Now, I figure some of those grapes are not wine grapes, but are used for juice and raisins and whatever.</blockquote>


All of those are indeed wine grapes. If you're interested, you can drive over 41 to the 5 and take it south, there are some vineyards just south of Kettleman City that are rasins. They are machine harvested and on overhead trellices. If you come back into Paso on 46, those vineyards are all wine grapes.



<blockquote>But, it seems to me that there is a finite amount of wine that can be sold. Only the best wine can really be aged and stored over time with improvement of quality. So what happens to all the "left over" wine, either whites that don't store well, or reds that aren't that good? </blockquote>


They sell it all, but your concern about market saturation is well placed. They pulled out something like 75,000 acres of wine grapes around 2000-2002 after overplanting in the 1990's. That is the market correcting force. Does anyone store wine anymore other than collectors? I'm a wine drinker, not a collector!
 
I went looking for an article on SK Foods and thier ongoing bankrupcy (they have a tomato cannery so I care, but my Mom and Dad's tomatos are going to Morningside, so I'm really just curious). I found something else.



<a href="http://www.thepacker.com/Z-S-Fresh-goes-out-of-business/Article.aspx?articleid=367193&authorid=680&categoryid=158&feedid=215">http://www.thepacker.com/Z-S-Fresh-goes-out-of-business/Article.aspx?articleid=367193&authorid=680&categoryid=158&feedid=215</a>



The fact Z-S Fresh! went out isn't that big a deal. What I missed (because when I left the fresh fruit industry I quit paying attention on purpose) was this:



<blockquote>Z&S joins George Bros. Packing, Ito Packing, Sunny-Cal Farms and Ballantine as valley shippers that have gone out of business since the end of the 2008 tree fruit season.</blockquote>


That's like 300 years of collective fruit business experence BAM! gone. Those guys were huge players in the fruit business. I told you guys things were bad, but I was understating it.
 
<blockquote>Fruits are horrible business. You have huge issues with accounts receivable realization. You grow a crop, then the real costs get you in labor to harvest and cold storage and transportation. Then, after it?s all sold, your end customer may decide there was something wrong with it and take a discount of 50-80% on what they agreed to pay, and there?s not a damn thing you can do about it because your product is long sold and gone. The fruit business right now is just horrible.</blockquote>


My brother is a fruit buyer and this is right on. An increasing number of the farms he has been buying from are ripping out their fruit trees or just going busto.
 
[quote author="Sunshine" date=1245147686]My friend and her family grow raisins in Fresno. There are a ton of raisin farmers there.</blockquote>


They aren't Armenian are they?



Somewhere in the early part of this decade, the raisin business got real tough, and I can't exactly explain why because I wasn't around for it. Those guys near Fresno had been farming raisins the same way since around 1910. They squeezed 2-3 tons an acre out for production, but it required you to use a bunch of hand labor to cut them, lay them on paper trays, and dry them. It cost about $200 an acre just for harvesting costs; a crew of 10 can do a 40 acre field in 3-4 days. The stuff near Fresno was ideal because the sandy soil had great drainage and sped up drying fruit. If they got rained on it was a minor disaster because you'd have to send your fruit to the dehydrator to fix the mess before they got mildewed.



The stuff near Kettleman City on the I-5 uses an overhead trellised system and dries them on the vine. This runs production up to around 10 tons per acre and you get to harvest them with a machine that cost about $40 an acre. A crew of 3 can do 160 acres a day - and you can farm in the heavier clay soils that produce much better because you don't have to worry about drying raisins.



To be competitive in the new world order you had to pull your whole vineyard and buy all new tractors and implements, you literally had to start over.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1245151224][quote author="Sunshine" date=1245147686]My friend and her family grow raisins in Fresno. There are a ton of raisin farmers there.</blockquote>


They aren't Armenian are they?



Somewhere in the early part of this decade, the raisin business got real tough, and I can't exactly explain why because I wasn't around for it. Those guys near Fresno had been farming raisins the same way since around 1910. They squeezed 2-3 tons an acre out for production, but it required you to use a bunch of hand labor to cut them, lay them on paper trays, and dry them. It cost about $200 an acre just for harvesting costs; a crew of 10 can do a 40 acre field in 3-4 days. The stuff near Fresno was ideal because the sandy soil had great drainage and sped up drying fruit. If they got rained on it was a minor disaster because you'd have to send your fruit to the dehydrator to fix the mess before they got mildewed.



The stuff near Kettleman City on the I-5 uses an overhead trellised system and dries them on the vine. This runs production up to around 10 tons per acre and you get to harvest them with a machine that cost about $40 an acre. A crew of 3 can do 160 acres a day - and you can farm in the heavier clay soils that produce much better because you don't have to worry about drying raisins.



To be competitive in the new world order you had to pull your whole vineyard and buy all new tractors and implements, you literally had to start over.</blockquote>


They are Armenian. I think some of them also grow other fruit for dried fruit mixes.
 
[quote author="Sunshine" date=1245154258]



They are Armenian. I think some of them also grow other fruit for dried fruit mixes.</blockquote>


I'm sure. I bet that greater than half the fruit growers up there are Armenian.
 
Not much to update in the world of Agriculture, except that it remains grim.



<a href="http://www.fresnobee.com/170/story/1529390.html">http://www.fresnobee.com/170/story/1529390.html</a>



<blockquote>"A lot will depend on how long people can hold their breath," said Leslie Butler, a dairy economist at the University of California at Davis. "People will use all the resources they have, but there will be many who say they just can't make it anymore."



William Longfellow a third-generation dairy farmer, is milking about 1,700 cows at his Hanford farm. But the dairy is losing money ? more than $170,000 every month.



THE NUMBERS

The average cost of making milk in California is $15 per hundredweight -- 100 pounds of milk -- while dairy operators are earning about $9 a hundredweight. Last year, 99 of California's 1,700 dairies went out of business. And this year, the number could reach at least 150.



Fred Machado of Easton, a veteran dairyman, is among those who grew weary of losing money. He lost $70,000 a month over the past six months.



"I was going to end up with nothing, unless I got out," said the 77-year-old Machado. "I started this dairy from scratch, but I couldn't see the light at the end of the tunnel."</blockquote>


Again, cost of production is around $20 per hunderedweight - current prices are at $15. Not a good year to be a dairyman.



I am going up the weekend of July 25th to collect some tomatos. If you want Romas, please get ahold of me and let me know ASAP.
 
The good news: my dad's first tomato crop (before this year, he never even grew any recreationally) might be the finest crop he's ever grown. Period.



<img src="http://i176.photobucket.com/albums/w188/CraigMBA/img099.jpg" alt="" />



For reference, this was it about six weeks ago:



<img src="http://i176.photobucket.com/albums/w188/CraigMBA/img061.jpg" alt="" />



Again, sorry for the lousy pictures. I took my camera with me, but I neglected to put it in my pocket when I drove out to pick a few. I'm going back next week again,<em> this will be your last chance for free tomatos</em>. The harvester is scheduled to show up next Sunday. If you want some, send me a PM and let me know how many you want. <em> Feel free to get greedy.</em> Pops is picking two plants a day, which are yealding about 80-90 pounds a plant. If you don't take them, they are going to waste.



Other tomato news:



<a href="http://www.fresnobee.com/business/story/1544368.html">http://www.fresnobee.com/business/story/1544368.html</a>



<blockquote>Despite water shortages, softer consumer demand and a record crop, California processing tomato farmers and industry officials are feeling optimistic.



"Yes, we have challenges," said Don Cameron, a Fresno County tomato farmer. "But in the long term we are going to see increases in tomato production in California."</blockquote>


The bad news: the water situation remains grim for many growers.



<blockquote>Next year could prove to be a different story for farmers in areas with uncertain water supplies.



"This year a lot of us started the year with water we carried over, but in a year like this one guys are not going to have those carry-overs next year," Woolf said.



"It will be interesting to see, if we have a lot of inventory and yet no water, what that might do to prices."

</blockquote>


Dad is taking half of this years profits and spending it on improving his water situation. That means he's drilling wells.
 
I have been validated.



CNBC did a spot on - get this - the colapse in California dairy prices!



<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1197616390&play=1">http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1197616390&play=1</a>
 
<a href="http://www.epicurious.com/tools/searchresults?search=roma+tomatoes">More tomato recipes.</a>



Big thanks to No_Vas for the special delivery. I did quality control on one a few minutes ago (probably before No_Vas even made it home), and they are awesome. As represented, they are very meaty and would be good for soups, stews, and sauces, although I like the five minute broiled tomato recipe in the link above, too. Y'all really should take him up on his offer.
 
Also another thanks to no vas for the tomato delivery. We had tomato, basil, mozzarella paninis here last night. Delicious!
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1248857189]I have been validated.



CNBC did a spot on - get this - the colapse in California dairy prices!



<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1197616390&play=1">http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1197616390&play=1</a></blockquote>


Too bad we don't have "what's his name?" with his 5 gallons of milk a week to kick around anymore!
 
[quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1248862095]<a href="http://www.epicurious.com/tools/searchresults?search=roma+tomatoes">More tomato recipes.</a>



Big thanks to No_Vas for the special delivery. I did quality control on one a few minutes ago (probably before No_Vas even made it home), and they are awesome. As represented, they are very meaty and would be good for soups, stews, and sauces, although I like the five minute broiled tomato recipe in the link above, too. Y'all really should take him up on his offer.</blockquote>


Yeah... it would be nice if we could take him up on the offer, but oh no... you... the greedy tomato hog got the last of his bunch. So much for being IHB kindred. :p
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1248875186][quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1248862095]<a href="http://www.epicurious.com/tools/searchresults?search=roma+tomatoes">More tomato recipes.</a>



Big thanks to No_Vas for the special delivery. I did quality control on one a few minutes ago (probably before No_Vas even made it home), and they are awesome. As represented, they are very meaty and would be good for soups, stews, and sauces, although I like the five minute broiled tomato recipe in the link above, too. Y'all really should take him up on his offer.</blockquote>


Yeah... it would be nice if we could take him up on the offer, but oh no... you... the greedy tomato hog got the last of his bunch. So much for being IHB kindred. :p</blockquote>


Dude, I got more - but not until Sunday? How many you want?
 
<a href="http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/market-dispatches.aspx?post=1210233&_blg=1,1210233">Prepare for higher milk prices</a>



The Agriculture Department will increase prices on milk and cheese to help dairy farmers.

Posted by Elizabeth Strott on Friday, July 31, 2009 10:56 AM



Rising production costs and falling milk prices have slammed dairy farmers in the U.S. during the recession, but today the United States Department of Agriculture said it will help.







The USDA will increase the price paid for milk and cheddar cheese, which will provide immediate relief, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said this morning. Vilsack said the program should help dairy farmers wade through "one of the worst dairy crises in decades."







The USDA sets the price paid by dairy processors based on commodity markets, which rise and fall with global demand.







Dairy farmers will get a revenue boost of $243 million because of the price increases, the USDA predicted. The price increases will be in place until October.







Last week, Pennsylvania Gov. Edward Rendell asked the federal government to help. "The dairy industry is in a desperate situation and we are seeking ways to bring immediate aid to keep our farmers in business, here in Pennsylvania and throughout the Northeast," Rendell said in a press release.



* Video: Dairy farms in crisis



In March, the Agriculture Department released 200 million pounds of excess powdered milk to schools, food banks and needy countries to help reduce U.S. supply.







Dairy farms boosted milk production last year, because of a surge in demand for U.S. milk exports. Then the recession kicked into high gear, and demand plummeted, leaving farmers with too much milk and too many cows. Prices tumbled as a result. In fact, milk prices have fallen by about 50% over the past year, and cheese prices have tanked 43%.







In June, the National Milk Producers Federation said it will pay dairies to slaughter 103,000 U.S. cows in the next few months to help boost prices.







The USDA, which sets the price paid by dairy processors to farmers based on commodity markets, is forecasting butter, cheese, and milk prices to surge in 2010. Retail butter prices may rise above the record of $3.937 a pound and cheddar cheese may top $5.097 a pound, Jerry Dryer, the editor of the industry newsletter Dairy & Food Market Analyst, told Bloomberg News in June.







Experts say that farmers are culling the cows because exports have fallen 26% in the first quarter, while feed remained costly. "No one is making money producing milk," Michael Swanson, chief economist at Wells Fargo, told Bloomberg. "The milk price remains well below the total cost of production."







One expert said the government should stay out of the issue. Congress should "avoid the temptation to put a Band-Aid on an old system and look at long-term approaches that get us to grow and innovate as an industry," Paul Kruse, the chief executive of Blue Bell Creameries, said at a congressional hearing on July 14. Kruse was testifying for the International Dairy Foods Association, a group that includes milk buyers like Kraft Foods (KFT), ConAgra Foods (CAG) and Safeway (SWY).







California is the largest milk-producing state, followed by Wisconsin.
 
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