How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...

I mentioned this before (which LL likes to ignore), but that data point for new homes sales is a significant differentiator for the Irvine numbers vs the rest of Orange County.

Even during the 2006+ "crash", there were new home communities in Irvine selling homes that did not count against his "pain" numbers.

Even his 2018 "slump" has an asterisk unless you bring in that data.
 
Liar Loan said:
The 30 Yr Fixed has breached 5%. 

tic, tic, tic, tic....
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Mortgage rates fluctuate. The important thing is the housing price.

With talks about recession in 2023 or 2024, mortgage rate may go back down, at which point homeowners could just refinance.

If the price is right, then people will still buy if they've done the risk assessment.
 
The California Court Company said:
there is already loan modification for people in forbearance for 40 year fixed.
it wont surprise me if 40 year fixed becomes QM in the future.
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Could be. Higher rates mean those with low rates are going to hang onto those low rate loaned homes. Either they'll live in them or rent them out. Wonder what that would mean to resale inventory? Sorry millenials. You can blame the Boomers for Not dying quick enough, holding onto  their houses preventing you from getting them and at the same time competing with you for starter homes because some did sell their homes. I'll blame the fed for keeping rates so low you are in this mess.
 
Ready2Downsize said:
The California Court Company said:
there is already loan modification for people in forbearance for 40 year fixed.
it wont surprise me if 40 year fixed becomes QM in the future.
Click to expand...

Could be. Higher rates mean those with low rates are going to hang onto those low rate loaned homes. Either they'll live in them or rent them out. Wonder what that would mean to resale inventory? Sorry millenials. You can blame the Boomers for Not dying quick enough, holding onto  their houses preventing you from getting them and at the same time competing with you for starter homes because some did sell their homes. I'll blame the fed for keeping rates so low you are in this mess.
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This is not a big deal.

Since home ownership is a right in the US, the government will just give interest free loans for down payments to anyone under 35. The loans will be forgiven in 5 years as long as you continue to file a tax return.

Home prices continue to go up and everyone keeps on winning!!!

Irvine of course would go up higher than any other location in Southern California :)
 
Don't forget the REITs and other "Buy To Rent" companies that have swept up as much SFR inventory as they could, further strangling the inventory flow.

And yes, those corporate decisions to run the table were made primarily by Boomers - the shiattiest generation.

My .002c
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
Don't forget the REITs and other "Buy To Rent" companies that have swept up as much SFR inventory as they could, further strangling the inventory flow.

And yes, those corporate decisions to run the table were made primarily by Boomers - the shiattiest generation.

My .002c
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Before you wish the boomers to be D E A D, they are JOB SECURITY for the health care industry. Imagine mechanics wishing cars never broke. They'd be broke themselves. It's like that.
 
Ready2Downsize said:
What do you suggest people do about this? Sell their house and rent? Short homebuilders? Live in a tent?
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It depends on the life circumstances of the individual.  If you expect home values to decline, then act accordingly.  Would you buy something today that you believe would be worth substantially less in the future?  I wouldn't.  Likewise, if you are already thinking about selling, you might want to get on that.  This party is coming to an end.

Homebuilders are collectively down -28% YTD.  Hmm... I wonder why?  That is the stock market's way of predicting the future of new home sales.

Living in a camper is a lifestyle choice many people make to save on housing costs.  Lots of them Winter in Quartzsite, Yuma, and other sunbelt areas.  The longest I have lived in an RV was seven weeks during the 2020 summer lockdown and I've gotta say, I had the time of my life seeing this country!

If you are retired, then you have the luxury of thinking outside the box on this issue.  The wage slaves with young kids have much less flexibility than you do.

CalBears96 said:
Mortgage rates fluctuate. The important thing is the housing price.

With talks about recession in 2023 or 2024, mortgage rate may go back down, at which point homeowners could just refinance.

If the price is right, then people will still buy if they've done the risk assessment.
Click to expand...

We have just experienced one of the sharpest increases in mortgage rates in history.... and it's still not over.

Nobody knows for sure what the future holds, but here are two things you can take to the bank: (1) sharply higher rates are bad for housing  (2) recessions are bad for housing. 

We are likely to experience pain from both of these scenarios over the next couple of years.
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
Don't forget the REITs and other "Buy To Rent" companies that have swept up as much SFR inventory as they could, further strangling the inventory flow.

And yes, those corporate decisions to run the table were made primarily by Boomers - the shiattiest generation.

My .002c
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Millennials hold 5.8% of all wealth. There are now 41-year-old Millennials.

At the same age, Boomers had 21% of all wealth.

Seems like legitimate gripe to me.

As for the title of the "shiattiest generation" -  More female boomers live in poverty than female millennials. And over 40% of single female boomers live below the poverty line.

 
The boomers had kids much younger and bought houses much younger than millenials and instead of spending on experiences and travel, they stayed home.

The boomers also benefited from raging inflation. I bought a house when I was barely over 22, living paycheck to paycheck but due to inflation the price of assets skyrocketed.

Ronnie also started 401Ks and most of us threw all excess money into stocks (and lived thru the market crash of 1987 and housing decline of the late 80s) but by then our houses were worth a LOT more.

Those who preceeded us lived thru the depression and WWII and were savers, unwilling to part with cash while the boomers only saw inflation all of their formative years and we just knew we were never going to get anything if we didn't buy it NOW.

The end result was the boomers who bought and prayed they could make their payments, eating beans if they had to got more wealth accumulated during the inflationary period than those behind them who saved all their dough.

 
Boomers were handed generational wealth, safety and a prosperous future from the Greatest Generation, squandering nearly all of it on self-indulgences and frivolity. Boomers used to claim love, peace, and protests during the 60's, but now it's "everyone for themselves", warmongering, and obey the State or lose your job with most of them now. Boomers accepted the expansion of debt, both national and personal, because as with all spoiled children no one really ever said "No" to them. It's no wonder the "Boomer" generation was called "The Me generation" because from the view point of history, it's all about Me, and very little about anyone else.

As one in the very tail end of the Boomer Generation, I count myself in this group, as much as I dislike what we're leaving for everyone else once the Me Generation flames out.

Should move this to another thread since it's not so much about rates at this moment - 5.5 to 6.0% (APR TBD) perhaps in the coming weeks! YOW!!
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
Should move this to another thread since it's not so much about rates at this moment - 5.5 to 6.0% perhaps in the coming weeks! YOW!!
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Careful with that talk.  Even a licensed NMLS loan officer like yourself is subject to getting called a low-key troll by the crowd here.
 
I was handed NOTHING.

My hubby and I paid for our own schooling, our own wedding, our own cars and our own down payment on our house.

I babysat for 50 cents an hour (time and a half after midnight) and bought my own underwear and clothes in high school. I sewed my own prom dress (before chinese clothes could be bought for less than the price of fabric), paid for our own class rings which were going up up up with the price of gold.

The ONLY thing we were handed was $1000 from some relative of my hubby who died and mentioned him in her will.

We bought a little 13" sony tv a few years after we got married. I went to work early to watch Luke and Laura get married but we didn't have the money for a tv so we did without.

We found out we could get a school loan when my hubby was going for his MBA and we bought a couch with it. It was the only thing in our living room the day we sold our second place 8 years after buying the first one.

We used coupons because we had to and I was good at it, thank goodness for double coupons in those days. I rarely paid for food.

We were DIYers because we had to be. That didn't mean we sacrificed quality. If we couldn't have good quality we just didn't get it.

We paid for all my kids to go to college but that didn't extend to giving them free cars. We wanted them to know the value of money so they paid for their cars, just as we did except we did cosign for a car loan (something we never got...... we didn't get a car till we had every dime to buy it...... pintos which were all we could afford and even then we had one car. We carpooled to college and mostly I rode the BUS.... yup, the OCTD bus. Free bus pass in those days from UCI which was helpful to my budget. When we had the first place for a while, we saved enough to get the second pinto which was handy since I worked evening shift but alas the first one didn't last that much longer and we were down to one car. We didn't buy another till I was 34.... honda civic, lowest model with four on the floor and a/c was an add on in those days. Paid cash for it. We just waited till we had enough to buy that car and carpooled in the meantime.

Once we were in better shape, we gave the kids money, not regularly. We want them to budget for themselves.

No ONE will EVER tell me I had anything handed to me. I got nothing but $1000.

Despite that, money means little to me. Owing money is something I don't want. Maybe I inherited that from the generation before me but I was always afraid something would happen and I might not be able to make my payments and my house would be taken from me. Paid off my house I bought at the peak of the market in Tustin Ranch when I was 35 because I didn't want two mortgages and we were buying another place in Irvine and I couldn't wait to be mortgage free again.
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
Boomers were handed generational wealth, safety and a prosperous future from the Greatest Generation, squandering nearly all of it on self-indulgences and frivolity. Boomers used to claim love, peace, and protests during the 60's, but now it's "everyone for themselves", warmongering, and obey the State or lose your job with most of them now. Boomers accepted the expansion of debt, both national and personal, because as with all spoiled children no one really ever said "No" to them. It's no wonder the "Boomer" generation was called "The Me generation" because from the view point of history, it's all about Me, and very little about anyone else.

As one in the very tail end of the Boomer Generation, I count myself in this group, as much as I dislike what we're leaving for everyone else once the Me Generation flames out.

Should move this to another thread since it's not so much about rates at this moment - 5.5 to 6.0% perhaps in the coming weeks! YOW!!
Click to expand...

The moves is lightning speed. I was expecting to see it toward the end of the year.

But here it is. There is no individuals large enough to absorbs the 3T MBS, so who will the FED sell it to? FED unwound and off-load, how?
 
Ready2Downsize said:
I was handed NOTHING.

My hubby and I paid for our own schooling, our own wedding, our own cars and our own down payment on our house.

I babysat for 50 cents an hour (time and a half after midnight) and bought my own underwear and clothes in high school. I sewed my own prom dress (before chinese clothes could be bought for less than the price of fabric), paid for our own class rings which were going up up up with the price of gold.

The ONLY thing we were handed was $1000 from some relative of my hubby who died and mentioned him in her will.

We bought a little 13" sony tv a few years after we got married. I went to work early to watch Luke and Laura get married but we didn't have the money for a tv so we did without.

We found out we could get a school loan when my hubby was going for his MBA and we bought a couch with it. It was the only thing in our living room the day we sold our second place 8 years after buying the first one.

We used coupons because we had to and I was good at it, thank goodness for double coupons in those days. I rarely paid for food.

We were DIYers because we had to be. That didn't mean we sacrificed quality. If we couldn't have good quality we just didn't get it.

No ONE will EVER tell me I had anything handed to me. I got nothing but $1000.

Despite that, money means little to me. Owing money is something I don't want. Maybe I inherited that from the generation before me but I was always afraid something would happen and I might not be able to make my payments and my house would be taken from me. Paid off my house I bought at the peak of the market in Tustin Ranch when I was 35 because I didn't want two mortgages and we were buying another place in Irvine and I couldn't wait to be mortgage free again.
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Yup, I remember, buying used furniture from second hands stores. And living frugally. Loans had to think twice, three times before touching it. Biden about to extend loans again for Millenials. I have friends that take out over 100K in loans to live-off with. And buy fancy RH furniture with it. Go figure out why they always broke and in debts dispite having high salary. Then tell me that they have to live in a full amentity rental Irvine. Not cheap there. 3500 for a 1 bed room 750 sqft apartment.
 
We paid for all my kids to go to school but we told them outright that state schools was our budget and we were not going into debt for other schools so if that is what they wanted, it was on them to pay the additional tuition.

We gave each child $ towards their wedding but we told them all we aren't paying for a fancy day. Too many of my friends and their friends are divorced.

TODAY they ALL are thankful they went to local state schools and tell me of their friends who have no better job but lots of loans to pay and they are ALL going to tell their kids it's state school babies.

I am thankful that I know how to budget and that no one is taking anything from me. I'm thankful my kids live within their means as well.

I had cancer 15 years ago. Cost me a lot of money, thankfully the doctors gave me a professional discount even though they knew I wasn't working as a nurse any more. My oncologist told me alot of his patients lose their houses because of the medical bills and I knew right then, good thing we were savers and not spenders.

You never know what will happen to you. Saving is a good thing.

 
You also lucked into your prime earning years corresponding with a 40 yr bull market in bonds and corresponding decline in long term int rates. Double coupons - I recall those were automatic at Ralphs. We used to use them in the mid 90s but our earnings have increased by almost 10x since then, reflective of the massive wage inflation skilled workers have seen in the Internet age, so I guess Gen X got something after all as my dad's best salary before retirement in the late 80s was 1/8 of what I made last year.
 
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