How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?

In the bag…😳

Housing economist warns of 8% mortgage rates after home sales disappoint

“Just today's home sales are reflecting July's mortgage rate of under 7%. So if mortgage rates were to go up to 8%, naturally, we have not seen the bottoming for home sales," Yun said in the press call. "Home prices continue to mark higher, but for home sales, we [would] make it another leg down if mortgage rates were to go to 8%."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hous...es-after-home-sales-disappoint-141850108.html

 
morekaos said:
In the bag…😳

Housing economist warns of 8% mortgage rates after home sales disappoint

“Just today's home sales are reflecting July's mortgage rate of under 7%. So if mortgage rates were to go up to 8%, naturally, we have not seen the bottoming for home sales," Yun said in the press call. "Home prices continue to mark higher, but for home sales, we [would] make it another leg down if mortgage rates were to go to 8%."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hous...es-after-home-sales-disappoint-141850108.html
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I win! Ring the f’ing bell. Now hopefully we get a recession in 2 years so the Fed has an excuse to cut when I plan to sell and escape back behind the Orange curtain.
 
Jumbos hit a new cyclical high today ~ 7.42%

Maybe when rates hit 8.88% all the Chinese buyers will rejoice and scoop up Irvine properties!

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OCtoSV said:
I win! Ring the f’ing bell. Now hopefully we get a recession in 2 years so the Fed has an excuse to cut when I plan to sell and escape back behind the Orange curtain.
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The supply problem wouldn't be here if all those 3% loans were assumable (not sure when those went away). Small homes could be sold and the buyer could move up to another assumable loan. As long as the buyer can qualify, what does the bank care anyway? More fees for loan processing on a loan that they had anyway.
 
Liar Loan said:
Jumbos hit a new cyclical high today ~ 7.42%

Maybe when rates hit 8.88% all the Chinese buyers will rejoice and scoop up Irvine properties!
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This is walking down memorry lanes for me. In 1999 I bought my first home in Irvine, rate was very close to the magic number you posted. Mine was exactly 8.75% 30 years fixed. Fast forward 23 years later, the price had more is 4X the price I paid for it and it paid for.

Remember this, our FED and government will always prefer high prices for tax purpose.

Chinese buyer as you reference here doesn't need a loan, they came and will come with suite case of cash.

Of course, you should know that by now since you been here since the GFC 2007
 
I've been reading alot of news headlines about 7-8% rates and was expecting the worst but when I finally buttoned down and started shopping rates it wasn't that hard to find loans in the low 6's, just a heads up.
 
hamilton said:
I've been reading alot of news headlines about 7-8% rates and was expecting the worst but when I finally buttoned down and started shopping rates it wasn't that hard to find loans in the low 6's, just a heads up.
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Exactly, LL likes to post up national articles that don't necessarily apply to Irvine and Orange County.
 
Liar Loan said:
Anybody care to update their predictions, @usctrojancpa?

Higher Interest Rates Not Just for Longer, but Maybe Forever​


On Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials surprised markets by signaling interest rates won’t fall as much as previously planned.

The tweak might be more important than it looks. In their projections and commentary, some officials hint that rates might be higher not just for longer, but forever. In more technical terms, the so-called neutral rate, which keeps inflation and unemployment stable over time, has risen.

This matters to any investor, business or household whose plans depend on interest rates over a decade or longer. It could explain why long-term Treasury yields have risen sharply in the past few months, and why stocks are struggling.

www.wsj.com

Higher Interest Rates Not Just for Longer, but Maybe Forever

Rate projections suggest many Fed officials see a rising “neutral rate,” which keeps inflation and unemployment stable in the long run.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
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I never said rates were going to come down in 2024 and I've been telling people that the market was being overly optimistic about the Fed cutting rates in 2024. The Fed will eventually break something and we'll go into recession and that is when they will begin cutting rates which I don't see happening until 2025.
 
usctrojancpa said:
Exactly, LL likes to post up national articles that don't necessarily apply to Irvine and Orange County.
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Yet nothing he has said refutes the fact that Jumbos have reached a new cyclical high. That does indeed apply to Irvine/Orange County.

The headline rates are an average, so some lenders will come in lower, but not everybody bothers to shop around. You also need perfect credit and a sizable down payment, which not everybody has. @hamilton also might not be factoring in the upfront points in his quote -- the MND rate is based on zero points paid. And lastly, people talk about moving large sums of money to their mortgage bank to get a slightly lower rate, but they never seem to factor the costs of doing so. The bank expects to make that discount up and then some as future profit on other banking services.
 
Liar Loan said:
Yet nothing he has said refutes the fact that Jumbos have reached a new cyclical high. That does indeed apply to Irvine/Orange County.

The headline rates are an average, so some lenders will come in lower, but not everybody bothers to shop around. You also need perfect credit and a sizable down payment, which not everybody has. @hamilton also might not be factoring in the upfront points in his quote -- the MND rate is based on zero points paid. And lastly, people talk about moving large sums of money to their mortgage bank to get a slightly lower rate, but they never seem to factor the costs of doing so. The bank expects to make that discount up and then some as future profit on other banking services.
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As long as you are putting 20%+ down and have a FICO of 740 or higher you'll qualify for jumbo rate in the high 6s with zero points. I know Hamilton personally and he did not pay any points to get his rate. What you see is the national average rate and Orange County tends to have mortgage rates below that national average that your data indicates.
 
While we were busy arguing Jumbo rates just shot up again to a new all time high - 7.50% - while the conventional 30 yr just tied it's cyclical high!!

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no, of course it’s not, just like tax driven high gas prices hurt everyone, the poor and middle-class, the most, though. Who do you think gets hurt the most by home mortgage rates? Hint…not you and me.
🤷🏽‍♂️🤦🏽‍♂️😂😂😂
 
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Using a terrible case scenario (Super Conforming, 719 FICO, Cash Out Refinance, Condo, 70% LTV) I'm seeing 8.125% / 8.339 APR for 1.75 points on average. Most on-line rate scenario generators don't have "worse case scenario" capabilities, but say "please call us directly" to get a rate quote. Banks won't touch a scenario like this with either Agency or Portfolio products.

A purchase scenario at 70% LTV would be around 8.00%/8.094 APR with around .50 points.

Use a 780 FICO and an SFR purchase at 70% LTV, the terms drop to 7.250/7.305 APR for around .50 points.

Portfolio jumbos are still high 6's, low 7's for -0- points, depending on FICO and down payment, 75% being a good place to start when comparing on-line.

I think It's time to consider the "what if" scenario - What if rates touch 9%? - which was unthinkable merely a year ago.
 
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