How come Quail Hill/Turtle Rock prices haven't gone down that much

[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1235787378]It's all about the FCBs!!!



I've gone over this in a few threads but the mid high-end ($1mil-$1.5mil) do seem a bit immune... even compared to the rest of Irvine. I don't think we'll see 40-50% drops but I hope we do.



Most of the reductions will probably occur in the lower-end QH units... condos and homes <= 2000sft. Will that be enough to bring down the bigger homes? Vicara will see some bigger drops because they are just so much higher than Sienna... but I think you'll see less in the Tapestry/Chantilly/Sienna trio because they are so close in price ranging. Tapestry models should really be going for less than $800k... and even if they were to down to $700k (hopefully)... that's still only 23% off of original 2003/4 prices... but 45% lower than peak (06) pricing.</blockquote>


It is NOT FCBs. It IS the typical length of the reset period on Jumbo and Alt-A ARMs at 3-5 years (as opposed to 1-3 for subprime paper). Market peak 2006, +1 year = 2007 subprime crash and low end gets crushed, +3 years = 2009... the Pain is just beginning. Just wait.
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1235793393][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1235787378]It's all about the FCBs!!!



I've gone over this in a few threads but the mid high-end ($1mil-$1.5mil) do seem a bit immune... even compared to the rest of Irvine. I don't think we'll see 40-50% drops but I hope we do.



Most of the reductions will probably occur in the lower-end QH units... condos and homes <= 2000sft. Will that be enough to bring down the bigger homes? Vicara will see some bigger drops because they are just so much higher than Sienna... but I think you'll see less in the Tapestry/Chantilly/Sienna trio because they are so close in price ranging. Tapestry models should really be going for less than $800k... and even if they were to down to $700k (hopefully)... that's still only 23% off of original 2003/4 prices... but 45% lower than peak (06) pricing.</blockquote>


It is NOT FCBs. It IS the typical length of the reset period on Jumbo and Alt-A ARMs at 3-5 years (as opposed to 1-3 for subprime paper). Market peak 2006, +1 year = 2007 subprime crash and low end gets crushed, +3 years = 2009... the Pain is just beginning. Just wait.</blockquote>
You do know whenever I say "FCB"... it's merely to get Graph to post some chart.



My question is... where are the people who bought in 2003/04... if not everyone used responsible financing? At 3-5 years out... we should be seeing reset victims now. Whenever I see those ForeclosureRadar charts... I see a lot of the dot thingies at the lower end of QH... but only a few (and most of those are NODs) in the >2500sft homes.



I don't recall brand new neighborhoods built in the 90s crashing that hard back when that bubble popped. Granted, this is probably a much worse burst... but I think it will still be a slow drop for higher-end QH homes. I do hope the pain is just beginning... because that means I can go back to being an IHO.
 
[quote author="frank69m" date=1235770218][quote author="TR_Esq" date=1235741676][quote author="LoudRoar" date=1235737625] Also, and this is purely speculation, ... Quail Hill owners tend to be sophisticated buyers and probably opted for a fixed mortgage, planning to stay in the community for years to come. Due to this fact, the supply of homes in the community is reduced, thereby maintaining/increasing the price.</blockquote>


There is no way that anyone who bought in QH in 2005-2007 was sophisticated, no way. IR has done a number of posts analyzing, ad nasuem, the absurdity of QH homebuyers. I recall driving through QH in 2006 and thinking, how in the world can these people afford houses selling for more than 1.3m? It appears the couldn't.</blockquote>




Why'd you say that they aren't sophisticated? Cause prices were so high in 2006.</blockquote>


I suppose it depends on how one defines the term "sophisticated." I would argue that someone buying a 1500 sq/ft condo in QH in 05-07 for $700k+, using 100% financing was not sophisticated. Perhaps prudent is a better term to use. Regardless, the prudence/imprudence or sophistication/unsophistication of buyers in QH is not what's "maintaining/increasing" price. At best, such a perception is illusory. In reality, as others have pointed out here, the prices have come down considerably and, I suspect, will continue their descent.
 
You are seeing some foreclosure activity in the mid-tier range in QH. For example there is a Chantilly going up for auction (reference on another QH thread).
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1235806701]You are seeing some foreclosure activity in the mid-tier range in QH. For example there is a Chantilly going up for auction (reference on another QH thread).</blockquote>
What is the percentage of the mid-tier QH foreclosures compared to other Irvine areas? I think you will find the number up until now still pretty low.
 
May be adjacency to Shady Canyon? Homeowners are stretched in their budget threre too but they are not giving up because they believe in the locations will hold value. It is all in the psychology. Northwood II is when the Homeowners felt no hope for the location and the homes are not worth fighting for. Early phases of QH and Turtle Rock homes were sold before creative financing came into effect.
 
LOL...I just noticed a bunch of new SFH going up for sale in Quail Hill...



They range from the 1.2 million on up to the 2's....LOL...told ya..hasn't gone down that much...



But this may be a good sign of things to come..More inventory = lower prices.



Let the Turtle Rock and Quail Hill collapse start :)



Check this out:



http://www.redfin.com/search#v=3&lat=33.644152547338045&long;=-117.77869462966922&zoomLevel=15&market=socal
 
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