How come Quail Hill/Turtle Rock prices haven't gone down that much

F

frank69m_IHB

New member
I've been watching the sales in Quail Hill/Turtle Rock for a number of months now and I've noticed that these areas haven't sunk as much as other areas in OC. Is it because of the lack of supply or are we just waiting for this time bomb before this all comes crashing.



I'm estimating only 15% down from the peak. I want 30%!!!
 
Irvine has the best public education system. I am sure there is a statistic out there that shows UNI students attend UCI at a higher rate than students from other high schools. I am of the opinion that UNI is the best HS in Irvine and definitely contributes to maintaining Turtle Rock prices. Also, and this is purely speculation, Turtle Rock and Quail Hill owners tend to be sophisticated buyers and probably opted for a fixed mortgage, planning to stay in the community for years to come. Due to this fact, the supply of homes in the community is reduced, thereby maintaining/increasing the price. Turtle rock and Quail hill are the Irvine of Irvine. A final reason may be, and again pure speculation, because the Gabriello Indians believed the area was sacred. Perhaps divine intervention is involved.
 
[quote author="frank69m" date=1235729435]I want 30%!!!</blockquote>


Typical american entitlement mentality that got us into this global financial crisis.
 
[quote author="LoudRoar" date=1235737625] Also, and this is purely speculation, ... Quail Hill owners tend to be sophisticated buyers and probably opted for a fixed mortgage, planning to stay in the community for years to come. Due to this fact, the supply of homes in the community is reduced, thereby maintaining/increasing the price.</blockquote>


There is no way that anyone who bought in QH in 2005-2007 was sophisticated, no way. IR has done a number of posts analyzing, ad nasuem, the absurdity of QH homebuyers. I recall driving through QH in 2006 and thinking, how in the world can these people afford houses selling for more than 1.3m? It appears the couldn't.
 
This is purely speculation & opinion, but I am of the belief that Turtle Rock didn't see huge percentage gains during the bubble (not a lot of flippers and/or speculators) therefore you are not going to see huge percentage decreases.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1235740640][quote author="frank69m" date=1235729435]I want 30%!!!</blockquote>


Typical american entitlement mentality that got us into this global financial crisis.</blockquote>


Exactly!



"I WANT MINE, DAMN YOU!"
 
[quote author="TR_Esq" date=1235741676][quote author="LoudRoar" date=1235737625] Also, and this is purely speculation, ... Quail Hill owners tend to be sophisticated buyers and probably opted for a fixed mortgage, planning to stay in the community for years to come. Due to this fact, the supply of homes in the community is reduced, thereby maintaining/increasing the price.</blockquote>


There is no way that anyone who bought in QH in 2005-2007 was sophisticated, no way. IR has done a number of posts analyzing, ad nasuem, the absurdity of QH homebuyers. I recall driving through QH in 2006 and thinking, how in the world can these people afford houses selling for more than 1.3m? It appears the couldn't.</blockquote>




Why'd you say that they aren't sophisticated? Cause prices were so high in 2006.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1235740640][quote author="frank69m" date=1235729435]I want 30%!!!</blockquote>


Typical american entitlement mentality that got us into this global financial crisis.</blockquote>


AI, once again you are totally confused and have your facts backward to suit your backward view of the world. Wanting prices to come down to affordable levels so one can purchase a home did not get <em>"us into this global financial crisis"</em>. Manipulated interest rates, fractional reserve banking, leverage, and short sighted home debtors <em>"got us into this global financial crisis"</em>.
 
Prices on the smaller QH units are down ~25%+ from peak. 1200 sqft. 2/2s are no selling for $400-420K. At peak these were selling for ~$550K+.



The middle tier of the market $750K - $1MM is also significantly off peak. The Linden 3/3 were seelling for ~$900K - 950K at peak, and can easily be had for <$725K.



There are not enough Chantilly's in total to make an accurate inference on prices, though based on conversations I have had there is some pain coming...
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1235781293]Prices on the smaller QH units are down ~25%+ from peak. 1200 sqft. 2/2s are no selling for $400-420K. At peak these were selling for ~$550K+.



The middle tier of the market $750K - $1MM is also significantly off peak. The Linden 3/3 were seelling for ~$900K - 950K at peak, and can easily be had for <$725K.



There are not enough Chantilly's in total to make an accurate inference on prices, though based on conversations I have had there is some pain coming...</blockquote>
Turtle Rock probably wont be hit that hard, but I'd bet Quail Hill is gonna get punk slapped before its all said and done. There's a reason why I sold my condo when I did.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1235782330][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1235781293]Prices on the smaller QH units are down ~25%+ from peak. 1200 sqft. 2/2s are no selling for $400-420K. At peak these were selling for ~$550K+.



The middle tier of the market $750K - $1MM is also significantly off peak. The Linden 3/3 were seelling for ~$900K - 950K at peak, and can easily be had for <$725K.



There are not enough Chantilly's in total to make an accurate inference on prices, though based on conversations I have had there is some pain coming...</blockquote>
Turtle Rock probably wont be hit that hard, but I'd bet Quail Hill is gonna get punk slapped before its all said and done. There's a reason why I sold my condo when I did.</blockquote>


That is one of the reasons I sold my condo as well. I agree that QH will continue to fall, sharply. Considering everyhome was built during, or at the height of the bubble, a majority of homeowners will be faced with the decision of continuing to pay on an asset on which they owe substantially more than it is worth. I don't believe that TRock will hold up any better (though volumes could be lower), because both TRidge and QH are nice substitutes for TRock. Based on the available subsitutes, why would TRock homes hold at higher valuations?
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1235784380][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1235782330][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1235781293]Prices on the smaller QH units are down ~25%+ from peak. 1200 sqft. 2/2s are no selling for $400-420K. At peak these were selling for ~$550K+.



The middle tier of the market $750K - $1MM is also significantly off peak. The Linden 3/3 were seelling for ~$900K - 950K at peak, and can easily be had for <$725K.



There are not enough Chantilly's in total to make an accurate inference on prices, though based on conversations I have had there is some pain coming...</blockquote>
Turtle Rock probably wont be hit that hard, but I'd bet Quail Hill is gonna get punk slapped before its all said and done. There's a reason why I sold my condo when I did.</blockquote>


That is one of the reasons I sold my condo as well. I agree that QH will continue to fall, sharply. Considering everyhome was built during, or at the height of the bubble, a majority of homeowners will be faced with the decision of continuing to pay on an asset on which they owe substantially more than it is worth. I don't believe that TRock will hold up any better (though volumes could be lower), because both TRidge and QH are nice substitutes for TRock. Based on the available subsitutes, why would TRock homes hold at higher valuations?</blockquote>
My guess would be for the reason you just stated...the homes in TRock weren't built during the bubble plus I dont think you had a lot of flipper activity up there. I'm not saying the prices won't make a hit there, but I think the declines will be less than in other, newer parts of Irvine. If I were to get a good paying full-time job with some level of job security and prices came down another 25-30% in QH I'd probably buy a 2bed/2bath condo. Fact his, QH has been late to the price decline party but that area will get hit hard in due time.
 
It's all about the FCBs!!!



I've gone over this in a few threads but the mid high-end ($1mil-$1.5mil) do seem a bit immune... even compared to the rest of Irvine. I don't think we'll see 40-50% drops but I hope we do.



Most of the reductions will probably occur in the lower-end QH units... condos and homes <= 2000sft. Will that be enough to bring down the bigger homes? Vicara will see some bigger drops because they are just so much higher than Sienna... but I think you'll see less in the Tapestry/Chantilly/Sienna trio because they are so close in price ranging. Tapestry models should really be going for less than $800k... and even if they were to down to $700k (hopefully)... that's still only 23% off of original 2003/4 prices... but 45% lower than peak (06) pricing.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1235787378]It's all about the FCBs!!!



I've gone over this in a few threads but the mid high-end ($1mil-$1.5mil) do seem a bit immune... even compared to the rest of Irvine. I don't think we'll see 40-50% drops but I hope we do.



Most of the reductions will probably occur in the lower-end QH units... condos and homes <= 2000sft. Will that be enough to bring down the bigger homes? Vicara will see some bigger drops because they are just so much higher than Sienna... but I think you'll see less in the Tapestry/Chantilly/Sienna trio because they are so close in price ranging. Tapestry models should really be going for less than $800k... and even if they were to down to $700k (hopefully)... that's still only 23% off of original 2003/4 prices... but 45% lower than peak (06) pricing.</blockquote>


There are so few sales in the "mid high-end ($1mil-$1.5mil)" that you can't really know what is going on for real. The few sales make people hold their price, but this will crash like everything else, maybe even more.



Be patient!
 
Both QH and TRidge are toast. Can't really say that prices haven't come down, because nothing is trading. Asking prices have no meaning if they don't result in sales.
 
[quote author="LoudRoar" date=1235737625]Irvine has the best public education system. I am sure there is a statistic out there that shows UNI students attend UCI at a higher rate than students from other high schools. </blockquote>


Not exactly what you are looking for, because it doesn't correct for the size of the schools, but here are statistics:



<a href="http://www.oir.uci.edu/adm/IA15-fall-fr-top-source-schools-by-enr.pdf">UC Irvine, top source schools for new freshman</a>



Top source schools for UCI freshman 2000-2007:

ARCADIA SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL ARCADIA CA

DIAMOND BAR HIGH SCHOOL DIAMOND BAR CA

UNIVERSITY HIGH SCHOOL IRVINE CA

WALNUT HIGH SCHOOL WALNUT CA

CERRITOS HIGH SCHOOL CERRITOS CA

FOUNTAIN VALLEY HIGH SCHOOL FOUNTAIN VALLEY CA

IRVINE HIGH SCHOOL IRVINE CA

TROY HIGH SCHOOL FULLERTON CA

SUNNY HILLS HIGH SCHOOL FULLERTON CA

ESPERANZA HIGH SCHOOL ANAHEIM CA
 
[quote author="joeyp" date=1235790742][quote author="LoudRoar" date=1235737625]Irvine has the best public education system. I am sure there is a statistic out there that shows UNI students attend UCI at a higher rate than students from other high schools. </blockquote>


Not exactly what you are looking for, because it doesn't correct for the size of the schools, but here are statistics:



<a href="http://www.oir.uci.edu/adm/IA15-fall-fr-top-source-schools-by-enr.pdf">UC Irvine, top source schools for new freshman</a>



Top source schools for UCI freshman 2000-2007:

ARCADIA SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL ARCADIA CA

DIAMOND BAR HIGH SCHOOL DIAMOND BAR CA

UNIVERSITY HIGH SCHOOL IRVINE CA

WALNUT HIGH SCHOOL WALNUT CA

CERRITOS HIGH SCHOOL CERRITOS CA

FOUNTAIN VALLEY HIGH SCHOOL FOUNTAIN VALLEY CA

IRVINE HIGH SCHOOL IRVINE CA

TROY HIGH SCHOOL FULLERTON CA

SUNNY HILLS HIGH SCHOOL FULLERTON CA

ESPERANZA HIGH SCHOOL ANAHEIM CA</blockquote>


The first page of 3 pages from your link indicates cities in both Southern and Northern CA with high Asian Populations. UC Irvine ranks high in the Princeton Review. We from locally make fun of this school but it really deserves a round of applause.
 
Thanks for getting some specific stats, but ya, I would imagine UNI is up there.



There is only one possible outcome to the credit crisis/recession. It is inevitable that America will increase exports. So we should attempt to understand two things: what is an "export" and what does America have to give? There was a post about foreigners buying property here, and even though that is not an "export," it is still assets coming from outside the US in exchange for internal assets, so could be considered an export. Based on this reasoning, you could consider foreigners attending American schools like UCI an export. Everyone wants to come to America and attend university because they are world-renowned. Imagine what that does to the long term rental market in the area. The UC system is the cutting edge, and don't be surprised if the cure for cancer is discovered right here at UCI. Other exports include technology and military equipment.



We will shift to an export economy and education is one of our main exports.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top