• New forum software - please post issues in this thread

Housing Analysis

usctrojancpa

Well-known member
Interest rates continue to drift lower and inventory levels remain stubbornly low so if both of those remain in tact then that will cushion any price declines.
 

OCtoSV

Active member
Interest rates continue to drift lower and inventory levels remain stubbornly low so if both of those remain in tact then that will cushion any price declines.
come on USC - you know the Fed is going all out to push up the long end of the yield curve and the debt ceiling standoff along with the potential for a Treasury liquidity event gvien the much smalle rrole the Primary Dealers play these days mean rates aren't moving down in any meaningful way anytime soon, certainly not enough to stimulate demand for payments 2x what they were; there are also 129 SFRs for sale in Irvine, 10x the inventory in my zip code of 40K people.

The real concern is the Fed turns into the BOJ and the private market for Treasuries goes bye bye as the Fed has to print just to keep the lights on. The securitization ponzi is over.
 

CalBears96

Well-known member
come on USC - you know the Fed is going all out to push up the long end of the yield curve and the debt ceiling standoff along with the potential for a Treasury liquidity event gvien the much smalle rrole the Primary Dealers play these days mean rates aren't moving down in any meaningful way anytime soon, certainly not enough to stimulate demand for payments 2x what they were; there are also 129 SFRs for sale in Irvine, 10x the inventory in my zip code of 40K people.

The real concern is the Fed turns into the BOJ and the private market for Treasuries goes bye bye as the Fed has to print just to keep the lights on. The securitization ponzi is over.
Give it up.

You've been wrong on oil price hitting $300. You're being wrong on Irvine condos dropping by 50% by June and you WILL be wrong about mortgage rates hitting 10%.

It is now CONFIRMED that we will get into recession this year. Microsoft just announced layoffs of 10k employees. The Fed is going to raise rates 2 more times, Feb (25/50 points) and March (25 points) and that's it.

Just admit you're wrong and move on.
 

usctrojancpa

Well-known member
come on USC - you know the Fed is going all out to push up the long end of the yield curve and the debt ceiling standoff along with the potential for a Treasury liquidity event gvien the much smalle rrole the Primary Dealers play these days mean rates aren't moving down in any meaningful way anytime soon, certainly not enough to stimulate demand for payments 2x what they were; there are also 129 SFRs for sale in Irvine, 10x the inventory in my zip code of 40K people.

The real concern is the Fed turns into the BOJ and the private market for Treasuries goes bye bye as the Fed has to print just to keep the lights on. The securitization ponzi is over.

The higher the Fed goes on the Fed funds rate the lower they'll push longer term rates which will translate to lower mortgage rates, that's the reality because the longer term bond rates are mainly priced off of future inflation expectations. I'll post the year end summary in the next few days for Irvine but Dec had 128 sales and we have 234 active listings on MLS as Wednesday even at 5pm which translates to less than 2 months of inventory. If rates continue to bleed lower and inventory levels remain low those things will cushion any material price declines.
 

CalBears96

Well-known member
Did I miss this post? Or did I forget it? Maybe I thought this was a joke from @OCtoSV.
Not a joke.


Here's another post with 10% mortgage rate and 50% drop on Irvine condos:

 

OCtoSV

Active member
Not a joke.


Here's another post with 10% mortgage rate and 50% drop on Irvine condos:

I stand by the 10% rates and 50% off peak for Irvine condos. That will be a normal reaction after a few years of tightening which the markets are trying to push against via the 10 yr showing recession signs except unemployment is still at record lows - IMO a function of too much capital still sloshing around. Virtually no one here seems to think much about the asset price discovery process being normalized after decades of ZIRP and int rate represession. Look big picture - places with sparse inventory like Marin show it first but the blast radius will spread.
 

OCtoSV

Active member
The higher the Fed goes on the Fed funds rate the lower they'll push longer term rates which will translate to lower mortgage rates, that's the reality because the longer term bond rates are mainly priced off of future inflation expectations. I'll post the year end summary in the next few days for Irvine but Dec had 128 sales and we have 234 active listings on MLS as Wednesday even at 5pm which translates to less than 2 months of inventory. If rates continue to bleed lower and inventory levels remain low those things will cushion any material price declines.
I look forward to your write up
 

OCtoSV

Active member
Hoping for armageddon in Irvine, OCtoSV wanna do SVtoOC 😁
Totally and fortunately my target areas in South OC are already cratering. Some amazing $3-400/sq ft listings in the Indian Wells area too I've been checking out. As long as mainland FCBs need a place to stash cash most Irvine properties will fare better than most South OC properties but the pain will be felt everywhere especially for recent buyers.

One area I've recently become enamored with is Agoura Hills - 30 mins to Malibu/Zuma, very close to Woodland Hills with amazing food options (esp Japanese) and some great restaurant/shopping options - Lure Fish House being something I would like to see in OC given Harbor Grill shut down.
 

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
@OCtoSV Those Hills areas you mention? Do they have all the rain/flood/pothole issues?

I keep hearing in the news how bad the storms hit areas north of LA which make OC even better. :)
 

Liar Loan

Well-known member
The number of housing units under construction are no longer the highest since the early 70's.... They are now at an all-time high!

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F660a7fe1-23e3-4b9d-91cf-d094d8b91f07_1013x647.png
 

Liar Loan

Well-known member
December into mid-January always has the lowest months-of-supply, so it's hard to draw conclusions from that. I think the Spring/Summer numbers will be a lot more revealing once sellers have had a full year to digest that home prices are indeed going down and the YoY numbers start coming in negative.
 

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
Another difference here is many if not most owners have financed into record low mortgage rates.

So they aren't staying for the house... but for the rate.

So just like the last drop, where some predicted droves of sellers and foreclosures because of rising rates on ARMs (which didn't become the tsunami as thought because rates dropped instead), the low locked rates are going keep people from selling.

What is going to compel people to sell other than normal life reasons... no real black swan event yet... like we would probably cash out but where would we go? And if we do... it's not a distressed sale... we can wait for a good offer, we don't have to discount.
 

usctrojancpa

Well-known member
Another difference here is many if not most owners have financed into record low mortgage rates.

So they aren't staying for the house... but for the rate.

So just like the last drop, where some predicted droves of sellers and foreclosures because of rising rates on ARMs (which didn't become the tsunami as thought because rates dropped instead), the low locked rates are going keep people from selling.

What is going to compel people to sell other than normal life reasons... no real black swan event yet... like we would probably cash out but where would we go? And if we do... it's not a distressed sale... we can wait for a good offer, we don't have to discount.

One of the things that will bring move-up sellers to the market is if rates continue to drop, that's my assumption because I have a few clients who are just not mentally ready to go over the 2s to the 5s even though they want/need more space. Rates in the low-to-mid 4s may be a different story.
 

potsticker

Active member
Another difference here is many if not most owners have financed into record low mortgage rates.

So they aren't staying for the house... but for the rate.

So just like the last drop, where some predicted droves of sellers and foreclosures because of rising rates on ARMs (which didn't become the tsunami as thought because rates dropped instead), the low locked rates are going keep people from selling.

What is going to compel people to sell other than normal life reasons... no real black swan event yet... like we would probably cash out but where would we go? And if we do... it's not a distressed sale... we can wait for a good offer, we don't have to discount.

This is what a lot of the doomsday predictors don't realize. If we're just talking Irvine, the majority of homeowners are locked in all-time low interest rates and also have equity. Even if you bought in early 2022, you have a very good interest rate and maybe your home value has come down but you're probably not underwater.

So unless you absolutely have to sell, why would you? And if you do decide to sell, you can afford to hold out for a good offer.

One of the things that will bring move-up sellers to the market is if rates continue to drop, that's my assumption because I have a few clients who are just not mentally ready to go over the 2s to the 5s even though they want/need more space. Rates in the low-to-mid 4s may be a different story.

This is me and my wife currently. We'd personally love to upgrade to a 4-5bd, 3k+ square feet home. But, I'm also locked into a 2.75% 30yr fixed with 50% equity...which is hard to say goodbye to.
 

usctrojancpa

Well-known member
This is what a lot of the doomsday predictors don't realize. If we're just talking Irvine, the majority of homeowners are locked in all-time low interest rates and also have equity. Even if you bought in early 2022, you have a very good interest rate and maybe your home value has come down but you're probably not underwater.

So unless you absolutely have to sell, why would you? And if you do decide to sell, you can afford to hold out for a good offer.



This is me and my wife currently. We'd personally love to upgrade to a 4-5bd, 3k+ square feet home. But, I'm also locked into a 2.75% 30yr fixed with 50% equity...which is hard to say goodbye to.

You are like about a half a dozen of my move-up clients. I have a 2.375% 30yr fixed rate on my Tustin Ranch home with about $1m in equity so I was pondering selling it but I decided to rent it as I'm almost $2,000 cash flow positive which goes toward my 3.875% 10-year ARM loan payment on my Irvine home. haha
 

zubs

Well-known member
Once again, why would you ever sell?
Do you have something better to do with $1,000,000?
Keep it forever & get your rents.

Perhaps 1 million dollars into MSFT leaps?
 
Last edited:
Top