Housing Analysis

[irvinehomeowner]

Hmmm... need to find the cheapest 3CWG in TRock with no/low HOA and just use the USC facilities.

 

[qwerty]

Damn Mania - that?s a nice house. Don?t forget to give me the code to the backyard

You and the kids are welcome to drop by anytime to go swimming. 

You don?t have to tell me twice

I just ask to bring over some tasty food for us to eat. 

Deal! I?ll be in touch!

 

[Liar Loan]

while LL was buying his own home and not telling anyone they should be buying too... which by the way means you paid more in 2020 than if you better timed it and bought in 2012... that's more than 5%

My prior home was purchased in 2010 within 5% of the bottom.  After rates hit 5% in 2018, the over $1M market went into a slump (including much of Irvine), while entry- and mid- level homes below $1M were still in short supply and going up in price.  This was a bit of an arbitrage play on my part - negotiate hard on the over $1M home with no competing offers, while selling my smaller mid-level home and getting multiple offers.  Our house is 5bd/4ba + office, 3CWG, .5 miles from the ocean. 

Unicorns can be captured using good timing if you pay attention to what is going on.

So......... since u r so into not losing money on something that you use every day, how do u ever buy a car?

I feel like your posts resemble the rantings of a serial killer more and more, but to answer your question, it's simple - negotiate hard and pay the least amount possible for the features that matter to you.  Don't overpay for a car or properties in Arizona.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

while LL was buying his own home and not telling anyone they should be buying too... which by the way means you paid more in 2020 than if you better timed it and bought in 2012... that's more than 5%

My prior home was purchased in 2010 within 5% of the bottom.  After rates hit 5% in 2018, the over $1M market went into a slump (including much of Irvine), while entry- and mid- level homes below $1M were still in short supply and going up in price.  This was a bit of an arbitrage play on my part - negotiate hard on the over $1M home with no competing offers, while selling my smaller mid-level home and getting multiple offers.  Our house is 5bd/4ba + office, 3CWG, .5 miles from the ocean. 

Unicorns can be captured using good timing if you pay attention to what is going on.

But as I said, that unicorn cost you more in 2020 than if you would have bought it in 2012... so still bad timing.

I feel like your posts resemble the rantings of a serial killer more and more, but to answer your question, it's simple - negotiate hard and pay the least amount possible for the features that matter to you.  Don't overpay for a car or properties in Arizona.

See... passive/aggressive trolling.

"Oh I admire you... but you are a serial killer and you overpay for stuff in Arizona... which I didn't start an Arizona thread for."

Comical.

 

[Liar Loan]

But as I said, that unicorn cost you more in 2020 than if you would have bought it in 2012... so still bad timing.

How so?  The house two doors down listed for 60% more than I paid two years ago, despite being smaller.

See... passive/aggressive trolling.

You must have missed her recent comments.  Mine are very restrained in comparison.

Either that or you have double standards.  LOL..

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So

But as I said, that unicorn cost you more in 2020 than if you would have bought it in 2012... so still bad timing.

How so?  The house two doors down listed for 60% more than I paid two years ago, despite being smaller.

Typical goalpost moving. Didn't comment what it's worth now, just what it was worth vs 2012.

But, thanks for proving my point... timing is relative and ANY time can be a good time to buy.

See... passive/aggressive trolling.

You must have missed her recent comments.  Mine are very restrained in comparison.

Either that or you have double standards.  LOL..

Or I just know what trolling means because you don't seem get the point.

 

[Liar Loan]

So

But as I said, that unicorn cost you more in 2020 than if you would have bought it in 2012... so still bad timing.

How so?  The house two doors down listed for 60% more than I paid two years ago, despite being smaller.

Typical goalpost moving. Didn't comment what it's worth now, just what it was worth vs 2012.

The house was added onto in 2016, so it's not possible to ascertain what it's worth would have been in 2012.  However, I can tell you that after factoring in the cost of additions, the prior owners made almost nothing after 16 years of ownership (they purchased in 2004).

So in my two years of ownership, I've made at least 6-7x the amount they did.  Timing matters.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Again.... proving my point... timing is luck... you didn't buy at the absolute low yet it worked out.

And proving another point, when it's your primary... you not as concerned about appreciation in the short term.

How do your shoes taste?

 

[usctrojancpa]

Again.... proving my point... timing is luck... you didn't buy at the absolute low yet it worked out.

And proving another point, when it's your primary... you not as concerned about appreciation in the short term.

How do your shoes taste?

LL doesn't quite understand that a primary residence is a commodity first and an investment second.  You need a place to live....you either buy a home to live in, you rent a home to live in, or you move back into your parent's home.  In the longer term, Irvine real estate will continue to appreciate so the key is to buy a home and own it for 5+ years optimally to overcome short term price volatility. 

 

[OCtoSV]

Again.... proving my point... timing is luck... you didn't buy at the absolute low yet it worked out.

And proving another point, when it's your primary... you not as concerned about appreciation in the short term.

How do your shoes taste?

LL doesn't quite understand that a primary residence is a commodity first and an investment second.  You need a place to live....you either buy a home to live in, you rent a home to live in, or you move back into your parent's home.  In the longer term, Irvine real estate will continue to appreciate so the key is to buy a home and own it for 5+ years optimally to overcome short term price volatility.

don't you think it's actually equal parts both decision criteria? I had a max budget and chose a lesser dwelling in the absolute top school district outside of Saratoga/Cupertino, which was beyond our price range. But I knew this house would grow in value much faster than larger homes in a lesser district close by because of the schools. So we sacrificed space and lot size for schools and appreciation.

In OC I agree with your thesis that Irvine will be the most stable market but the high level of potential inventory just by the sheer volume of housing that has been built in Irvine relative to any other part of OC could be a wildcard that may lead to much higher inventory than surrounding areas.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Again.... proving my point... timing is luck... you didn't buy at the absolute low yet it worked out.

And proving another point, when it's your primary... you not as concerned about appreciation in the short term.

How do your shoes taste?

LL doesn't quite understand that a primary residence is a commodity first and an investment second.  You need a place to live....you either buy a home to live in, you rent a home to live in, or you move back into your parent's home.  In the longer term, Irvine real estate will continue to appreciate so the key is to buy a home and own it for 5+ years optimally to overcome short term price volatility.

don't you think it's actually equal parts both decision criteria? I had a max budget and chose a lesser dwelling in the absolute top school district outside of Saratoga/Cupertino, which was beyond our price range. But I knew this house would grow in value much faster than larger homes in a lesser district close by because of the schools. So we sacrificed space and lot size for schools and appreciation.

In OC I agree with your thesis that Irvine will be the most stable market but the high level of potential inventory just by the sheer volume of housing that has been built in Irvine relative to any other part of OC could be a wildcard that may lead to much higher inventory than surrounding areas.

We are still in a savagely imbalance under inventory of available homes in Irvine since 2012. Plus builders for the most part have really tighten the volume of release. I want more balance in the housing market that favor the buyers. The way to get there is higher rates. We need higher rates to at least flatten the price.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Again.... proving my point... timing is luck... you didn't buy at the absolute low yet it worked out.

And proving another point, when it's your primary... you not as concerned about appreciation in the short term.

How do your shoes taste?

LL doesn't quite understand that a primary residence is a commodity first and an investment second.  You need a place to live....you either buy a home to live in, you rent a home to live in, or you move back into your parent's home.  In the longer term, Irvine real estate will continue to appreciate so the key is to buy a home and own it for 5+ years optimally to overcome short term price volatility.

don't you think it's actually equal parts both decision criteria? I had a max budget and chose a lesser dwelling in the absolute top school district outside of Saratoga/Cupertino, which was beyond our price range. But I knew this house would grow in value much faster than larger homes in a lesser district close by because of the schools. So we sacrificed space and lot size for schools and appreciation.

In OC I agree with your thesis that Irvine will be the most stable market but the high level of potential inventory just by the sheer volume of housing that has been built in Irvine relative to any other part of OC could be a wildcard that may lead to much higher inventory than surrounding areas.

Honestly, it sorta depends on what the buyers are looking for and who broad or narrow their search criteria are.  For example, if you are looking for a specific floor plan in a specific village then it makes timing the market a lot harder versus if you are open to different floor plans in different locations.  Besides a home is more of a commodity then an investment like a rental property is, the purchase of a primary residence tends to be driven by non-financial factors as long as it is within the buyer's budget and financial capacity.

 

[CalBears96]

Honestly, it sorta depends on what the buyers are looking for and who broad or narrow their search criteria are.  For example, if you are looking for a specific floor plan in a specific village then it makes timing the market a lot harder versus if you are open to different floor plans in different locations.  Besides a home is more of a commodity then an investment like a rental property is, the purchase of a primary residence tends to be driven by non-financial factors as long as it is within the buyer's budget and financial capacity.

Exactly. If you're buying a rental, then you don't care as much about the floorplan. Location may matter a bit more if it gives better cash flow or better rental market. On the other hand, if you're buying a primary residence, then floorplan and location are extremely important. Then you have to factor in availability. Great homes are less likely to be available. So if you find one, then you buy it. Timing is less of a factor.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So I will ask now to be clear so LL can't move his goalposts for the hundredth time:

What % will housing drop and what time frame?

And what is that % in Irvine vs OC (or .5 miles from the beach wherever you bought)?

Maybe I should start another poll because the 2018 Irvine Home Prices poll was eerily accurate... while the anti-shills were predicting large drops, the TI collective was on it with a flat/slightly-up (I voted 5% up) for 2018 to 2019 1-year time frame:
https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,16587.0.html

 

[irvinebullhousing]

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/l...tors/287-002ba716-5794-411d-982f-d3c7677d13e6


National Association of Realtors reports that 43% of homes sold in Dallas County, Texas in 2021 were purchased by institutional investors.

Texas is so HOT.

 

[usctrojancpa]

So I will ask now to be clear so LL can't move his goalposts for the hundredth time:

What % will housing drop and what time frame?

And what is that % in Irvine vs OC (or .5 miles from the beach wherever you bought)?

Maybe I should start another poll because the 2018 Irvine Home Prices poll was eerily accurate... while the anti-shills were predicting large drops, the TI collective was on it with a flat/slightly-up (I voted 5% up) for 2018 to 2019 1-year time frame:
https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,16587.0.html

If rates don't go over 6% on the conforming side and over 5% on the jumbo side, I can see pricing coming down around 5% +/- from the peak pricing that we saw in April/May (March/April contracts) in the next 6 months or so.  I will probably be wrong but that's my best guestimate.  There are so many variables out there to consider (future inflation, how aggressive the FED gets, the war, supply chains, mortgage rates, job market, etc) in making a prediction where prices might be in the next 12-18 months though.  But I am confident that in 5+ years prices will be higher as Irvine is built out (excluding the Great Park). 

 

[Liar Loan]

At the start of this year, nobody agreed with me that Irvine prices would be declining, now it seems to be the accepted wisdom.

Like USC said, the magnitude of the decline depends on a number of factors, but primarily on the actions of the Fed.  As long as Americans are feeling pain at the pump and at the grocery store, the Fed needs to look like they are taking the problem seriously.  I think the Fed would prefer to let inflation run hot, but they are backed against a wall politically now.

Remember, Reagan was swept into office on the discontent caused in part by high inflation.  These are the conditions that lead to generational political change.

Young people can't afford homes, rent, groceries, gas, cars, and other basic necessities, which has them seething at the older generations.  Poor people can't pay their energy bills.  Young families can't feed their infants.  We can debate how much wealth Irvine homeowners will gain or lose, but there are much bigger factors at play here that could lead to some unexpected, shocking results.

 

[CalBears96]

At the start of this year, nobody agreed with me that Irvine prices would be declining, now it seems to be the accepted wisdom.

Stop LYING. Martin and I had been saying since end of LAST YEAR that Irvine will peak around middle of this year and then flatten out or decline.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

At the start of this year, nobody agreed with me that Irvine prices would be declining, now it seems to be the accepted wisdom.

Stop LYING. Martin and I had been saying since end of LAST YEAR that Irvine will peak around middle of this year and then flatten out or decline.

Funny how LL keeps getting called out for his lies but he keeps doubling down.

I think it's psychological.

 

[Liar Loan]

Martin said something close to that, which is that homes would go up around 8-10% then flatten out in the second half.  He did not predict a decline.

You didn't predict anything:

I'm not saying that higher rates will result in lower prices. I'm just saying higher rate doesn't have that much effect if the housing price is within your range. Higher rate has a bigger effect on refinance than purchase. LL's point that the drop in purchase is due to higher rates is laughable. Low inventory has a bigger effect than higher rate.