Housing Analysis

USCTrojanCPA said:
Ready2Downsize said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
OCtoSV said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Liar Loan said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
What happens if interest rates fall (which will happen when the economy and inflation slow)?
Click to expand...

Lower interest rates will stimulate the economy, but I'm not expecting that for awhile.  With inflation so high, interest rates are still very much negative, which is fanning the flame of further inflation.  The Fed wants the headline inflation number back to 2.5% and that's going to require a lot more tightening.
Click to expand...

The Fed can only control the short term of the curve and if it gets too aggressive with the raising the Fed funds rate too high they'll cause longer term rates to fall and the yield curve invert because market participants will start pricing in a recession which is when longer term rates will fall.  The more aggressive the Fed gets by increasing rates higher the lower longer term rates will go and the deeper the recession will be, simple economy 101 at work.  Longer term interest rates are already down about 30-40bps from the peak a few weeks ago.  Unlike your average realtor, I actually have an undergrad econ degree.  ;)
Click to expand...

Economics is an art, not a science, unlike my computer science degree which trains the brain to operate via raw logic, especially the USC undergrad program where I coded an OS, a compiler and designed and simulated a CPU in a TTL design package, then went into sales. The long end is going to get pummeled by massive open market MBS sales (can't be rolled over as rates are so high refi market is frozen) and lack of Japanese buyers for UST due to rising rates in Japan (finally!)

I'm pretty sure you know 7-8% mortage rates are coming soon, and anyone buying now will face many years of being technically underwater based on purchase price. A responsible agent would be putting that scenario in front of buyers that are emotionally attached to their purchases, especially wives that demand paying $1.6M for a detached condo.
Click to expand...

I've been telling all of my buyers for years that if you aren't gonna be living in the home for 5+ years then you shouldn't be purchasing because the near term can be volatile.  I'm purchasing a home myself with eyes wide open and plan on living in that home for 10+ years as it is the unicorn that I've been searching for over 2 years for.
Click to expand...

I hope u got this one:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/10710-Plumas-Way-92782/home/5769067

Pretty big but when I saw that hit the market, I thought.......... this is a Martin home. lol!
Click to expand...

I do like those single level Emerson homes but no, I got this Turtle Rock home....
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5712-Oakley-Ter-92603/home/4741437
Click to expand...

Congrats Martin. Truly a unicorn home
 
Danimal said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Ready2Downsize said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
OCtoSV said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Liar Loan said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
What happens if interest rates fall (which will happen when the economy and inflation slow)?
Click to expand...

Lower interest rates will stimulate the economy, but I'm not expecting that for awhile.  With inflation so high, interest rates are still very much negative, which is fanning the flame of further inflation.  The Fed wants the headline inflation number back to 2.5% and that's going to require a lot more tightening.
Click to expand...

The Fed can only control the short term of the curve and if it gets too aggressive with the raising the Fed funds rate too high they'll cause longer term rates to fall and the yield curve invert because market participants will start pricing in a recession which is when longer term rates will fall.  The more aggressive the Fed gets by increasing rates higher the lower longer term rates will go and the deeper the recession will be, simple economy 101 at work.  Longer term interest rates are already down about 30-40bps from the peak a few weeks ago.  Unlike your average realtor, I actually have an undergrad econ degree.  ;)
Click to expand...

Economics is an art, not a science, unlike my computer science degree which trains the brain to operate via raw logic, especially the USC undergrad program where I coded an OS, a compiler and designed and simulated a CPU in a TTL design package, then went into sales. The long end is going to get pummeled by massive open market MBS sales (can't be rolled over as rates are so high refi market is frozen) and lack of Japanese buyers for UST due to rising rates in Japan (finally!)

I'm pretty sure you know 7-8% mortage rates are coming soon, and anyone buying now will face many years of being technically underwater based on purchase price. A responsible agent would be putting that scenario in front of buyers that are emotionally attached to their purchases, especially wives that demand paying $1.6M for a detached condo.
Click to expand...

I've been telling all of my buyers for years that if you aren't gonna be living in the home for 5+ years then you shouldn't be purchasing because the near term can be volatile.  I'm purchasing a home myself with eyes wide open and plan on living in that home for 10+ years as it is the unicorn that I've been searching for over 2 years for.
Click to expand...

I hope u got this one:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/10710-Plumas-Way-92782/home/5769067

Pretty big but when I saw that hit the market, I thought.......... this is a Martin home. lol!
Click to expand...

I do like those single level Emerson homes but no, I got this Turtle Rock home....
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5712-Oakley-Ter-92603/home/4741437
Click to expand...

Congrats Martin. Truly a unicorn home
Click to expand...

It checked 95%+ of the boxes, I loved the upgrades of the home.  The home is done done done.  The only things that I need to do is add solar and knock down the wall dividing up the 1-car garage and the 2-car garage spaces.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Danimal said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Ready2Downsize said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
OCtoSV said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Liar Loan said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
What happens if interest rates fall (which will happen when the economy and inflation slow)?
Click to expand...

Lower interest rates will stimulate the economy, but I'm not expecting that for awhile.  With inflation so high, interest rates are still very much negative, which is fanning the flame of further inflation.  The Fed wants the headline inflation number back to 2.5% and that's going to require a lot more tightening.
Click to expand...

The Fed can only control the short term of the curve and if it gets too aggressive with the raising the Fed funds rate too high they'll cause longer term rates to fall and the yield curve invert because market participants will start pricing in a recession which is when longer term rates will fall.  The more aggressive the Fed gets by increasing rates higher the lower longer term rates will go and the deeper the recession will be, simple economy 101 at work.  Longer term interest rates are already down about 30-40bps from the peak a few weeks ago.  Unlike your average realtor, I actually have an undergrad econ degree.  ;)
Click to expand...

Economics is an art, not a science, unlike my computer science degree which trains the brain to operate via raw logic, especially the USC undergrad program where I coded an OS, a compiler and designed and simulated a CPU in a TTL design package, then went into sales. The long end is going to get pummeled by massive open market MBS sales (can't be rolled over as rates are so high refi market is frozen) and lack of Japanese buyers for UST due to rising rates in Japan (finally!)

I'm pretty sure you know 7-8% mortage rates are coming soon, and anyone buying now will face many years of being technically underwater based on purchase price. A responsible agent would be putting that scenario in front of buyers that are emotionally attached to their purchases, especially wives that demand paying $1.6M for a detached condo.
Click to expand...

I've been telling all of my buyers for years that if you aren't gonna be living in the home for 5+ years then you shouldn't be purchasing because the near term can be volatile.  I'm purchasing a home myself with eyes wide open and plan on living in that home for 10+ years as it is the unicorn that I've been searching for over 2 years for.
Click to expand...

I hope u got this one:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/10710-Plumas-Way-92782/home/5769067

Pretty big but when I saw that hit the market, I thought.......... this is a Martin home. lol!
Click to expand...

I do like those single level Emerson homes but no, I got this Turtle Rock home....
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5712-Oakley-Ter-92603/home/4741437
Click to expand...

Congrats Martin. Truly a unicorn home
Click to expand...

It checked 95%+ of the boxes, I loved the upgrades of the home.  The home is done done done.  The only things that I need to do is add solar and knock down the wall dividing up the 1-car garage and the 2-car garage spaces.
Click to expand...

REALLY nice. Congrats, Martin!!!
 
3CWG FTW!!!!

See... I even infected USC.

Nice pool and love that tub in the master shower... we want to do something like that.

Single loaded street and a view lot... I drool so much when I look at those pics... and... you didn't have to renovate.
 
Kenkoko said:
Even if it's "almost impossible" to time the market, you should probably still try.

I frankly don't get the "too difficult why bother" narrative that keeps getting parroted on TI. Why live your life with such a defeatist attitude?

And are we seriously using problems unicorn hunter faces to make a broad based connection to regular buyers in Irvine?

Most Irvine buyers would probably be ok with cookie cutter homes.
Click to expand...

Everyone, including "regular buyers", should be a unicorn hunter.

Weren't you saying that buying your primary home is the biggest spend you are going to make? So people should buy the one they want... rather than the one that they timed well.

If you can do both, more power you, but if you can only choose one... and you can afford it... you will enjoy the better home over the cheaper one.

As USC, Cal and R2D have said... it's hard enough to find what you like, so don't add the pressure of timing to that mix.
 
I just cleaned and washed both mine and wife's vehicles the past weekend on the 3CWG driveway....It is so freaking convenient and awesome. I can vacuum both cars at the same time with all the doors open. there is so much room to move around equipment like vacuum and high pressure washer.

irvinehomeowner said:
3CWG FTW!!!!

See... I even infected USC.

Nice pool and love that tub in the master shower... we want to do something like that.

Single loaded street and a view lot... I drool so much when I look at those pics... and... you didn't have to renovate.
Click to expand...
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Everyone, including "regular buyers", should be a unicorn hunter.

Weren't you saying that buying your primary home is the biggest spend you are going to make? So people should buy the one they want... rather than the one that they timed well.

If you can do both, more power you, but if you can only choose one... and you can afford it... you will enjoy the better home over the cheaper one.

As USC, Cal and R2D have said... it's hard enough to find what you like, so don't add the pressure of timing to that mix.
Click to expand...

I disagree somewhat. It depends on the stage of your life / career etc. Not everyone has the luxury of being a unicorn hunter.

I was always against young people / fthb buying too much house. I'm for stay lean and mean, invest elsewhere for higher returns especially when you're young.

IHO, you said you stretched to buy because it motivated you. Pressure obviously doesn't get to you. Why is the pressure of timing all of a sudden an issue?
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Ready2Downsize said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
OCtoSV said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Liar Loan said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
What happens if interest rates fall (which will happen when the economy and inflation slow)?
Click to expand...

Lower interest rates will stimulate the economy, but I'm not expecting that for awhile.  With inflation so high, interest rates are still very much negative, which is fanning the flame of further inflation.  The Fed wants the headline inflation number back to 2.5% and that's going to require a lot more tightening.
Click to expand...

The Fed can only control the short term of the curve and if it gets too aggressive with the raising the Fed funds rate too high they'll cause longer term rates to fall and the yield curve invert because market participants will start pricing in a recession which is when longer term rates will fall.  The more aggressive the Fed gets by increasing rates higher the lower longer term rates will go and the deeper the recession will be, simple economy 101 at work.  Longer term interest rates are already down about 30-40bps from the peak a few weeks ago.  Unlike your average realtor, I actually have an undergrad econ degree.  ;)
Click to expand...

Economics is an art, not a science, unlike my computer science degree which trains the brain to operate via raw logic, especially the USC undergrad program where I coded an OS, a compiler and designed and simulated a CPU in a TTL design package, then went into sales. The long end is going to get pummeled by massive open market MBS sales (can't be rolled over as rates are so high refi market is frozen) and lack of Japanese buyers for UST due to rising rates in Japan (finally!)

I'm pretty sure you know 7-8% mortage rates are coming soon, and anyone buying now will face many years of being technically underwater based on purchase price. A responsible agent would be putting that scenario in front of buyers that are emotionally attached to their purchases, especially wives that demand paying $1.6M for a detached condo.
Click to expand...

I've been telling all of my buyers for years that if you aren't gonna be living in the home for 5+ years then you shouldn't be purchasing because the near term can be volatile.  I'm purchasing a home myself with eyes wide open and plan on living in that home for 10+ years as it is the unicorn that I've been searching for over 2 years for.
Click to expand...

I hope u got this one:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/10710-Plumas-Way-92782/home/5769067

Pretty big but when I saw that hit the market, I thought.......... this is a Martin home. lol!
Click to expand...

I do like those single level Emerson homes but no, I got this Turtle Rock home....
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5712-Oakley-Ter-92603/home/4741437
Click to expand...

Congrats!

Now r u sure you couldn't just wait for THAT house to come down in price and get it later? LOL!!!!
 
Kenkoko said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Everyone, including "regular buyers", should be a unicorn hunter.

Weren't you saying that buying your primary home is the biggest spend you are going to make? So people should buy the one they want... rather than the one that they timed well.

If you can do both, more power you, but if you can only choose one... and you can afford it... you will enjoy the better home over the cheaper one.

As USC, Cal and R2D have said... it's hard enough to find what you like, so don't add the pressure of timing to that mix.
Click to expand...

I disagree somewhat. It depends on the stage of your life / career etc. Not everyone has the luxury of being a unicorn hunter.

I was always against young people / fthb buying too much house. I'm for stay lean and mean, invest elsewhere for higher returns especially when you're young.

IHO, you said you stretched to buy because it motivated you. Pressure obviously doesn't get to you. Why is the pressure of timing all of a sudden an issue?
Click to expand...

You can stretch financially... how do you stretch timing?

I think that's the concept some people aren't understanding, there are variables you can control.... the ones you can't, is just futility.
 
Ready2Downsize said:
Kenkoko said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
I do like those single level Emerson homes but no, I got this Turtle Rock home....
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/5712-Oakley-Ter-92603/home/4741437
Click to expand...

Congrats Martin. That's one amazing house  :) South of the 405 too!
Click to expand...

Looks like a total remodel! New roof? Bathroom wide enough to fit a wheelchair or walker in the shower down the road if someone needs that and u save the buyer commish of $100K!
Click to expand...

The owner spent over $1.2m on a full interior and exterior remodel, no expense was spared.  New roof, new AC, new furnace, new tankless water heater, steam shower in the primary bath, new fencing, new pool and hardspacing, and reconfigured the interior space (kitchen and office). 

I used my trusty escalation clause to get the home which I've used for dozens of buyers, $20k above the highest offer.  Then I reduced the price by my commission. 
 
aquabliss said:
Sooooo, we?re moving the TI meetup to Martins new pad, right?  ;)
Click to expand...

I had to give the seller a 2 month rent back as well as having to bid up.  The home had 12 offers and I even beat out a few cash buyers, why?  Because I talked to the listing agent at the open house and know how to write a super clean strong offer. The fact that he was open to accepting an escalation clause with my offer also helped. 
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top