Housing Analysis

[sleepy5136]

Soria 1,2,3 are on the market waiting for you

Funny thing is that we looked at Soria before Bluffs/Highland and actually really liked 2/3/4, but as soon as we went to Portola Springs, my wife really loved the area and lost interest in Soria. We were offered Soria 3 and turned it down.

As you should. Three level detached condo with a tiny yard is a joke for 1.2-1.3m

 

[Liar Loan]

The verdict is in and once again Orange County outperforms Irvine for home price appreciation!

Irvine ~ +20%
OC ~    +21%
http://ochousingnews.com/wp-content...C-Irvine-December-2021-Market-Report-OCHN.pdf

Other observations:

• Median Resale Price exceeds Rental Parity in Irvine by the largest amount since 2004-2007 (Page 4).
• Cost to Own exceeds Median Rent in Irvine by the largest amount since 2004-2007, and is matched only by the prior bubble in 1989-1991 (Page 4).  And this is with record low interest rates!!

Both of these observations should be very concerning because the only other two times in history that they have happened, Irvine home prices fell by 30% soon after.  Enjoy the good times while they last!!!

 

[Mety]

So if Irvine falls by 30%, how much other OC areas would fall by? 31%?

 

[CLB_srA]

https://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2011/09/02/using-rental-parity-to-find-bargain-properties/


Is the writer of this blog an active user here?
This article embodies the logos of billion dollar SFR reits. Pretty cool to read.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

OCHousingNews is almost like Daily Mail.

Sorry... I don't trust Larry's data anymore. Especially when he kept highlighting foreclosures in Irvine while ignoring how bad it was in the rest of OC when he was blogging for the IHB. Then once all the schadenfreude dried up in Irvine... he finally expanded to the OC.

As much as LL likes to accuse us of Irvine bias... his anti-Irvine bias is much worse.

 

[Liar Loan]

So much falsehood in one post.  You seem to be implying that I wrote the blog that CLB_srA asked about, but that couldn't be further from the truth.  You also imply that I'm a consummate defender of Larry's writings, but that also isn't true.  I was never a participant on the Irvine Housing Blog precisely because I didn't agree with his outlook, and yet you obviously were a big fan:

irvine_home_owner
September 2, 2011 at 7:26 pm

Nice math post today?

Just one of many examples of the ass kissing on your part  :-*

 

[Liar Loan]

https://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2011/09/02/using-rental-parity-to-find-bargain-properties/


Is the writer of this blog an active user here?
This article embodies the logos of billion dollar SFR reits. Pretty cool to read.

Larry Roberts is the author of that post and he was ahead of his time as far as investing in beaten down markets (particularly Las Vegas) before the hedge funds and REIT's caught on.  He received a LOT of flack over it from the perma-bears that were his primary reading audience back in 2011 because they didn't want to believe a bottom was in for housing.

Larry stopped blogging probably about five years ago, but still publishes monthly real estate reports which you can subscribe to.
http://ochousingnews.com/wp-content...e-County-December-2021-Market-Report-OCHN.pdfhttp://ochousingnews.com/wp-content...C-Irvine-December-2021-Market-Report-OCHN.pdf

TalkIrvine was started by a group of his readers when he shut down his own forums, but to my knowledge he has never commented here.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So much falsehood in one post.  You seem to be implying that I wrote the blog that CLB_srA asked about, but that couldn't be further from the truth.  You also imply that I'm a consummate defender of Larry's writings, but that also isn't true.

Yet you always use his data to prove your point that OC fared better than Irvine... or that Irvine has experienced a "slump".

I was never a participant on the Irvine Housing Blog precisely because I didn't agree with his outlook

Really? I thought you had posted there... or maybe that was OCHousingNews.

and yet you obviously were a big fan:

irvine_home_owner
September 2, 2011 at 7:26 pm

Nice math post today?

Just one of many examples of the ass kissing on your part  :-*

Just because I interacted with him and commented on his posts means I'm a fan? Okay. You forget later on how we disagreed on stuff (which is why you had to go back 10 years)... to a point where he had to apologize for making assumptions about what I was saying as he thought I was discrediting him. But I guess this is where you go because you can't defend your own fanboyism.

Tell us again why you only use his data to prove any of your biased posts?

Kettle calling the pot black.

P.S. You still never admitted that there was no Irvine pain that you had predicted... now you are saying that you predicted a slump... that's funny.

 

[Liar Loan]

With so much drama on the IHB.  It's kinda hard when all you want is 3CWG.

So much falsehood in one post.  You seem to be implying that I wrote the blog that CLB_srA asked about, but that couldn't be further from the truth.  You also imply that I'm a consummate defender of Larry's writings, but that also isn't true.

Yet you always use his data to prove your point that OC fared better than Irvine... or that Irvine has experienced a "slump".

The last time you demanded data proving my point about the 2018 Irvine decline, Cares helpfully stepped in and provided it.  USCTrojanCPA also used to provide it, but maybe he's too busy these days.  Larry uses the same data source (MLS sales) as these other two, and all three have proven you wrong time and time again.

I was never a participant on the Irvine Housing Blog precisely because I didn't agree with his outlook

Really? I thought you had posted there... or maybe that was OCHousingNews.

I was a participant on the Lansner blog and his decision to shut down coincided with Larry's decision to leave Irvine Housing Blog and start OC Housing News, so I decided to take my commenting talents to his blog.  I wasn't necessarily a big fan of Larry's style or viewpoint at that time, but he was the only game left in town for real estate blogging and a handful of us Lansner refugees ended up there.

I was also invited by graphrix to join OC Reader and that was where I first met you and eventually started commenting here on Talk Irvine.

and yet you obviously were a big fan:

irvine_home_owner
September 2, 2011 at 7:26 pm

Nice math post today?

Just one of many examples of the ass kissing on your part  :-*

Just because I interacted with him and commented on his posts means I'm a fan? Okay. You forget later on how we disagreed on stuff (which is why you had to go back 10 years)... to a point where he had to apologize for making assumptions about what I was saying as he thought I was discrediting him. But I guess this is where you go because you can't defend your own fanboyism.

I didn't go back 10 years... Your starry-eyed comment was first on the blog post that CLB_srA linked to.

 

[BlackKnight]

This is a forum to chat and have fun. People are too serious here. Just a bunch of strangers.  Chill out people  8).  Lol cant imagine what it would be like when Metaverse is ready  ;D

 

[irvinehomeowner]

The last time you demanded data proving my point about the 2018 Irvine decline, Cares helpfully stepped in and provided it.  USCTrojanCPA also used to provide it, but maybe he's too busy these days.  Larry uses the same data source (MLS sales) as these other two, and all three have proven you wrong time and time again.

This was never proven. Redfin chart doesn't show a 2018 "decline" outside of the nominal seasonal drops.

What was that percentage drop? Was it outside the norm? I recall that's where it left off and like usual, you did not respond.

Who else thinks there was an 2018 Irvine slump? And... let's be clear here... you said it was only in Irvine... which I don't think is proven either.

Anyone else here believe in LL's call of the infamous 2018 Irvine only slump?

 

[zubs]

Back in 2018.

Eyephone, LL and Kenkoko thought Irvine would drop greater than 10%
IHO, CompressedV and I thought it would be 5~10% drop.

USC thought it would not be a big drop as well.

We were all wrong as this is what happened.
2019 ~ drop 4%
2020 ~ increase 10%
2021 ~ increase 25%.

But we were less wrong than the 3 bears ....LOL.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Don't forget meccos.

 

[zubs]

If you had bought anywhere in southern CA in 2018, you would be up 35% today.
It doesn't matter if you bought in IRVINE or RIVERSIDE.
Timing > Location

 

[eyephone]

Don't forget meccos.

Where is meccos? I hope he is okay.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

The last time you demanded data proving my point about the 2018 Irvine decline, Cares helpfully stepped in and provided it.  USCTrojanCPA also used to provide it, but maybe he's too busy these days.  Larry uses the same data source (MLS sales) as these other two, and all three have proven you wrong time and time again.

This was never proven. Redfin chart doesn't show a 2018 "decline" outside of the nominal seasonal drops.

What was that percentage drop? Was it outside the norm? I recall that's where it left off and like usual, you did not respond.

Who else thinks there was an 2018 Irvine slump? And... let's be clear here... you said it was only in Irvine... which I don't think is proven either.

Anyone else here believe in LL's call of the infamous 2018 Irvine only slump?

Irvine is a big place with lots of neighborhoods. The graph is going to be skewed by new home sales which go up.

Can you post a screen shot of Irvine during a five year period and ONLY include HOUSES (no condos/townhomes)?

It would be helpful if there was a chart long term of the price per sq foot by property type by zip code especially if it excluded new homes, imo.

 

[Liar Loan]

Back in 2018.

Eyephone, LL and Kenkoko thought Irvine would drop greater than 10%
IHO, CompressedV and I thought it would be 5~10% drop.

USC thought it would not be a big drop as well.

We were all wrong as this is what happened.
2019 ~ drop 4%
2020 ~ increase 10%
2021 ~ increase 25%.

But we were less wrong than the 3 bears ....LOL.

I have no idea what others predicted in 2018, but I was the first to point out Irvine's slowdown and price drop - something that was unimaginable on TI up to that point.  The myth that Irvine was immune to price drops post-recession had been shattered.  IHO was going around claiming the Great Recession only led to 15-20% price drops and you parroted that claim until I posted sales data that disproved it, shattering another frequently believed myth on TI.

The Redfin chart that IHO posted yesterday does show a greater than 10% decline (of course you are making up my prediction on this), but it all depends on what starting points and ending points you want to go with.  The numbers you posted aren't sourced or clear about the timeframe being referenced, so there's really no way to debate them.

 

[usctrojancpa]

The last time you demanded data proving my point about the 2018 Irvine decline, Cares helpfully stepped in and provided it.  USCTrojanCPA also used to provide it, but maybe he's too busy these days.  Larry uses the same data source (MLS sales) as these other two, and all three have proven you wrong time and time again.

This was never proven. Redfin chart doesn't show a 2018 "decline" outside of the nominal seasonal drops.

What was that percentage drop? Was it outside the norm? I recall that's where it left off and like usual, you did not respond.

Who else thinks there was an 2018 Irvine slump? And... let's be clear here... you said it was only in Irvine... which I don't think is proven either.

Anyone else here believe in LL's call of the infamous 2018 Irvine only slump?

Irvine is a big place with lots of neighborhoods. The graph is going to be skewed by new home sales which go up.

Can you post a screen shot of Irvine during a five year period and ONLY include HOUSES (no condos/townhomes)?

It would be helpful if there was a chart long term of the price per sq foot by property type by zip code especially if it excluded new homes, imo.

Attached you'll see charts of prices and prices per SF for SFRs only in Irvine in the past 5 years.

 

[Liar Loan]

Chart #1 ~ $510 sq/ft --> $460 sq/ft = 9.8% price drop
Chart #2 ~ $1.35M --> $1.05M = 22.2% price drop

Both of these drops occurred in the 2018-2020 timeframe.  Anybody waiting to buy would have saved money on homes price, property tax/mello roos, and interest rates.

 

[CalBears96]

Chart #1 ~ $510 sq/ft --> $460 sq/ft = 9.8% price drop
Chart #2 ~ $1.35M --> $1.05M = 22.2% price drop

Both of these drops occurred in the 2018-2020 timeframe.  Anybody waiting to buy would have saved money on homes price, property tax/mello roos, and interest rates.

How nice of you to pick the absolute peak during 2018 and the absolute bottom during 2020 for comparison. And you accused me of posting misinformation.