Housing Analysis

[Mety]

There are only 4 homes on the market from EW, SG, and CV. Nothing at SG. This is the lowest inventory level I've seen in Irvine.

Keep in mind it is Thanksgiving and Christmas coming up. No one wants to pack and move during these times or many people are just out of town.

That's true, but what about so many listings from GP and PS? I was just talking about real Irvine. >

That's fine with your opinion. As long as you don't tell me to put my hands on your Bibles and tell me about God's, its Ok with me.

I was joking. All Irvine hoods are fine. But I do strongly suggest you believe in God of the Bible. There are so many other versions of Jesus from all sorts of churches now so it?s very important to stick with the original. I?m not joking on this.

 

[Liar Loan]

Predicting a 2.5% drop in home prices @ end 2022 is same as saying home prices will be flat in the coming year, and if you find something you like...

get it.

Flat years typically precipitate housing crashes.  The best case scenario would be a repeat of 1980-85 with five years of flat prices and 10% inflation eroding buyers' power.

I'll keep saying this....until inventory levels increase materially, home prices will keep going up.  Simple econ 101 supply/demand dynamics at work.

An oversupply of money means a shortage of real estate.  What happens when conditions reverse?

2.5% drop?!?

Seasonal?

Yes, I remember the three years of seasonal drops that Irvine sustained until QE was turned back on.  tic, tic, tic...

There's no way prices can increase in 2022 as much as they increased in 2021 but until I start seeing way more inventory and/or less buyer demand I just don't see prices going down next year.  Even if you decrease the demand due to slightly higher rate, homes will still get multiple offers until there is more inventory on the market and buyers don't feel the urgency to buy.

Liar Loans, let?s put some money where your mouth is? If Irvine 1st half next year drop more than 2.5% you win 1k. If not I win 1K. Nothing serious, just some fun. Payable via Venmo, what do you say?

You should have a higher probability of winning, since you?ve been calling for correction 2 years now. And the odds of higher rate is upon us. I handicap this to your favor Maybe 3 year is a charm.

No? Nothing? Just as I thought, blowing hot air. The next time you say something, make sure you have some data to back up your arguments, or maybe even better, put some dough into it. Crickets.

I have a long history of correct calls here on TI and other forums.  I called the Bitcoin crash in 2018 (thread still active), the crash in gold prices in 2012 (a thread Panda deleted because he was so embarrassed), and also the Irvine slump in 2018 that lasted for three years as the rest of OC made solid price gains.

If you want to bet against me, don't waste my time with prop bets like loser Mitt Romney.  Save your money and buy more of Irvine if you think it's going to be a great investment going forward.

And if you really do have $1k to throw away, why not consider donating it to the poor, via charity?  I will match any donation you make.  Name the amount and I will post a gift statement here as proof.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

the Irvine slump in 2018 that lasted for three years as the rest of OC made solid price gains.

Do you have definitive proof of this other than OCHN? Seems like it was the same throughout OC.

 

[Liar Loan]

the Irvine slump in 2018 that lasted for three years as the rest of OC made solid price gains.

Do you have definitive proof of this other than OCHN? Seems like it was the same throughout OC.

USCTrojanCPA publishes the charts here monthly.  I'm surprised you haven't seen them.

 

[Cares]

What Irvine slump? OC vs Irvine in the last 3 years.

Irvine +34%
OC +15%

 

[zubs]

LL has to convince TI that his investments in other places that are not Irvine did better.
It seems to be very important to him so please don't harm his delusions.

Let it go.

 

[Liar Loan]

What Irvine slump? OC vs Irvine in the last 3 years.

Irvine +34%
OC +15%

Haha... You've attached a four year chart.  How very sly of you.

Nonetheless it shows that OC outperformed Irvine for three years starting in 2018, just as I've always stated.  So thank you for proving my point with this data.

Even a real estate broker like yourself, if they are being honest (a big IF mind you), has to admit Irvine was a subpar investment over that time. 

Irvine only took off in late 2020 once the QE spigot was turned back on, meaning buyers in Irvine are heavily dependent on stimulus money from the Fed to achieve their housing dreams, but what happens when the welfare checks stop coming in?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDIT:  Your percentage increases are wrong.  OC outperformed Irvine over the past four years:

Irvine:  $860k to $1,125k = 31%
OC:      $670k to $910k = 36%

LL has to convince TI that his investments in other places that are not Irvine did better.
It seems to be very important to him so please don't harm his delusions.

Let it go.

IHO actually inquired about it, and I responded cordially, but I can always count on you and Compressed Village to defend IHO's besmirched honor...lol

Look your issue is with the irrefutable charts that Cares and USCTrojanCPA post here.  I'm simply helping you to see the truth.

 

[Cares]

I don't manipulate the chart data. I selected 3 years as you can see and I have no idea why they spit out 4 years.

Either way, I will admit after your comment that the growth percentages looked off. I dug further into the raw data and noticed they are calculating the growth from the last period (1 year in this situation), so from Oct. 2020 to present.

So if you go back and calculate it OC 29.07% versus Irvine 29.80% over the last 3 years. Still not showing OC outperforming Irvine but level at least in this time frame.

I extrapolated the data back to January 2008 and on average for a rolling 1 year period, Irvine underperformed OC by about 1.2% growth.

I don't think this is an alarming stat though because it is a common theme for lower priced homes to be able to achieve higher percentage growth than a higher priced home. You have more buyers "fighting" for entry level homes driving up prices higher than they would a $1-2M home.

 

[Liar Loan]

And if you really do have $1k to throw away, why not consider donating it to the poor, via charity?  I will match any donation you make.  Name the amount and I will post a gift statement here as proof.

No?  Nothing?  Crickets.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

the Irvine slump in 2018 that lasted for three years as the rest of OC made solid price gains.

Do you have definitive proof of this other than OCHN? Seems like it was the same throughout OC.

USCTrojanCPA publishes the charts here monthly.  I'm surprised you haven't seen them.

Still don't see "slump" vs "solid price gains".

Even Cares' post details that they are closer than your statement is trying to imply.

 

[Liar Loan]

the Irvine slump in 2018 that lasted for three years as the rest of OC made solid price gains.

Do you have definitive proof of this other than OCHN? Seems like it was the same throughout OC.

USCTrojanCPA publishes the charts here monthly.  I'm surprised you haven't seen them.

Still don't see "slump" vs "solid price gains".

Even Cares' post details that they are closer than your statement is trying to imply.

His chart for the three years 2018-2020:

Irvine:  $860k to $900k = 5%  <--Slump
OC:      $670k to $790k = 18% <--Solid price gain

US Inflation over that time = 5.5%
So buyers in Irvine lost money in real terms!!

Yeah but what about financed buyers?  They made money right?
Not if they were borrowing money for 2-3% to finance an investment that only increased by 1.5% annually.

 

[Cares]

Well it's certainly convenient for your discussion to use housing price growth from 2018-2020 but then use inflation from 2018-2021?

Inflation from 2018-2020 was about 1.5% per year.

 

[Liar Loan]

Well it's certainly convenient for your discussion to use housing price growth from 2018-2020 but then use inflation from 2018-2021?

Inflation from 2018-2020 was about 1.5% per year.

I used this source:
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

2018 ~ 2.4%
2019 ~ 1.8%
2020 ~ 1.2%

Cumulative inflation according to their calculator was 5.6%.

 

[Cares]

Inflation BETWEEN 2018 to 2020 was only 3% unless I have the wrong grasp on the concept.

2018's 2.4% is the inflation from 2017 to 2018 if I am understanding it correctly. Between a 3 year period 2018 to 2020 you only add 2 years worth of inflation numbers so 3% total or 1.5% per year.

Edit: Never mind I looked at the data more it is the average of full year.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

5% gains in a higher price range is not a slump compared to 18% in a lower price range.

And remember... I've said that Irvine is quicker to rise and slower to fall... so even your "data" makes some sense.

And 5% is still up... what happened to the "pain" of the price drops you predicted?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

5% gains in a higher price range is not a slump compared to 18% in a lower price range.

And remember... I've said that Irvine is quicker to rise and slower to fall... so even your "data" makes some sense.

And 5% is still up... what happened to the "pain" of the price drops you predicted?

No?  Nothing?  Crickets.

Sweet Irvine pain feels good.

 

[Liar Loan]

5% gains in a higher price range is not a slump compared to 18% in a lower price range.

And remember... I've said that Irvine is quicker to rise and slower to fall... so even your "data" makes some sense.

And 5% is still up... what happened to the "pain" of the price drops you predicted?

People partied on the Titanic as it was sinking too.  Ce la vie.

 

[CalBears96]

Sweet Irvine pain feels good.

Sweet Irvine pain is bad for me.  I'm on Bluffs and Highland waitlist.

Bluffs 2 pricing:

Phase 23 - $1,425,000
Phase 24 - $1,445,000
upcoming phase 25 - $1,480,000

Highland 1 price has gone up about $100k since I got on the waitlist late September.

If it's not my turn soon, I'm going to be priced out.  :'(

 

[sleepy5136]

Sweet Irvine pain feels good.

Sweet Irvine pain is bad for me.  I'm on Bluffs and Highland waitlist.

Bluffs 2 pricing:

Phase 23 - $1,425,000
Phase 24 - $1,445,000
upcoming phase 25 - $1,480,000

Highland 1 price has gone up about $100k since I got on the waitlist late September.

If it's not my turn soon, I'm going to be priced out.  :'(

Soria 1,2,3 are on the market waiting for you

 

[CalBears96]

Soria 1,2,3 are on the market waiting for you

Funny thing is that we looked at Soria before Bluffs/Highland and actually really liked 2/3/4, but as soon as we went to Portola Springs, my wife really loved the area and lost interest in Soria. We were offered Soria 3 and turned it down.