Housing Analysis
- Thread starter eyephone
- Start date
Liar Loan
Well-known member
That's a conservative strategy that works for a lot of people.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
That chart shows that the cost to own was about 2x of renting when the Fed last significantly raised rates in the 70s/80s so if that holds true the cost to own will go up a little more because we are only at 150%.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
Peak bubble buyers losing $100k in less than two years!! How is this even possible with the shortage of homes and people refusing to give up 3% mortgages that I keep hearing about?
Then of course, this poor couple will be stuck either renting an apartment in Seattle or purchasing another home with a 7% mortgage. A double whammy of a loss.
She has clients selling their home after purchasing it just a year ago near the housing market peak because they have to move back to Seattle for in-person work.
"My sellers both work at the same company, which told them they have to be in the office three days a week or they'll lose their jobs. They have six months to make the move. They'll probably have to take a $100,000 loss on their home," Pendleton said.
finance.yahoo.com
Then of course, this poor couple will be stuck either renting an apartment in Seattle or purchasing another home with a 7% mortgage. A double whammy of a loss.
Return-to-office policies are driving people to sell their homes - even at a loss
Redfin highlighted an anecdote from real estate agent Shauna Pendleton in Boise, Idaho, which was a popular destination for big city remote workers during the pandemic.She has clients selling their home after purchasing it just a year ago near the housing market peak because they have to move back to Seattle for in-person work.
"My sellers both work at the same company, which told them they have to be in the office three days a week or they'll lose their jobs. They have six months to make the move. They'll probably have to take a $100,000 loss on their home," Pendleton said.
Return-to-office policies are driving people to sell their homes - even at a loss
Other reasons that are driving people to move include wanting more space, being closer to family, and lowering costs, according to a survey.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Fear monger much? I already posted about this on the WFH thread and it was discussed.
This is a small percentage of owners (Redfin survey was like 1/10) and the percentage is even smaller for those who would lose... and if they are losing, they have other options than to sell.
Remember... the TI tenets of homebuying is financial capable and not short term. If you're selling within 2 years...the possibility of a loss is high.
How about those people who bought in 2018?
Liar Loan
Well-known member
If they sold within two years, they lost as well.How about those people who bought in 2018?
Harvesting cap gains in RE is totally dependent on when you buy, temporarily distorted by Fed policy for the past couple decades. Current buyers will be the first generation in a loong time to really have to consider that. With structural workforce and trade issues driving an inflationary undercurrent the Fed won't be cutting rates unless unemployment suddenly spikes or we get another pandemic or black swan, which means jobs will get hit hard and inventory will balloon. Hard to tell the future however possibility thinking is an important component of one's long term financial health.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Buy, refi-extract equity, hold until you die. Before you die, setup trust to pass-through to your heirs, tax free.
Repeat,
Buy, refi-extract equity, hold until you die. Before you die, setup trust to pass-through to your heirs, tax free.
Repeat,
Buy, refi-extract equity, hold until you die. Before you die, setup trust to pass-through to your heirs, tax free.
Yes, this will create a somewhat tight inventory such as what we are wittneessing today.
In the meantime, hire a property management company to do the works for you.
Repeat,
Buy, refi-extract equity, hold until you die. Before you die, setup trust to pass-through to your heirs, tax free.
Repeat,
Buy, refi-extract equity, hold until you die. Before you die, setup trust to pass-through to your heirs, tax free.
Yes, this will create a somewhat tight inventory such as what we are wittneessing today.
In the meantime, hire a property management company to do the works for you.
Such a simpleton - the refi-extract faucets are OFF. That game is over.Buy, refi-extract equity, hold until you die. Before you die, setup trust to pass-through to your heirs, tax free.
Repeat,
Buy, refi-extract equity, hold until you die. Before you die, setup trust to pass-through to your heirs, tax free.
Repeat,
Buy, refi-extract equity, hold until you die. Before you die, setup trust to pass-through to your heirs, tax free.
Yes, this will create a somewhat tight inventory such as what we are wittneessing today.
In the meantime, hire a property management company to do the works for you.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
Homebuyers canceling purchases at highest rate in 10 months
Home purchases across the US are getting canceled at the highest rate in almost a year as rising borrowing costs weigh on buyers.
Nearly 60,000 deals to purchase homes fell through in August, according to a report released Friday by Redfin Corp. That’s equal to roughly 16% of homes that went under contract last month, the biggest share of cancellations since October.
“I’ve seen more homebuyers cancel deals in the last six months than I’ve seen at any point during my 24 years of working in real estate,” Jaime Moore, a Redfin agent, said in the report. “They’re getting cold feet.”
www.ocregister.com
Home purchases across the US are getting canceled at the highest rate in almost a year as rising borrowing costs weigh on buyers.
Nearly 60,000 deals to purchase homes fell through in August, according to a report released Friday by Redfin Corp. That’s equal to roughly 16% of homes that went under contract last month, the biggest share of cancellations since October.
“I’ve seen more homebuyers cancel deals in the last six months than I’ve seen at any point during my 24 years of working in real estate,” Jaime Moore, a Redfin agent, said in the report. “They’re getting cold feet.”
Homebuyers canceling purchases at highest rate in 10 months
“They’re getting cold feet,” says one Redfin agent.
www.ocregister.com
Last edited:
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
It is that simple. Not difficult to be well, when you can planned for the opportunities. The difficult here is to see what will come and plan accordingly. Certainly, if you refi today is dumb. Too late for that. Zub had good timing. He almost pulled 1Million or close to it. Now, just sit back and chill on the 5.5% short term treasury. Opportunities will arise once again for the planned and prepare.
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
I can give a future people may not like and probably will think cannot happen but it sure did in the 70's/80's.
Fed thinks they got things under control but lo and behold nope........ large wage gains ------> price increases (inflation) ------> rising rates higher than the last go round (maybe after lowering them first because of a recession or just because we thought we won the war) ------> recession and if it's not deep enough another go round or two of that.
Houses can continue to go up (rising inflation) but jobs are lost and it's hard to actually sell a house (and where are you going to go anyway?)
What is eventually required to break that increasing wage cycle is a DEEP lasting recession as we had in 1981 (it was the third recession). Unemployment was higher than 2008 and the government was not there to bail us out and it didn't last just a few months. Instead they were also cutting spending and jobs. In that circumstance, by the time you're done with that deep recession no one is complaining they want more money....... they are just freaking happy to even have a job.
The 70's/80's were like now, except the mortgages people hung onto were 7% mortgages. 70's into 1980 is when labor unions were all the rage and what eventually happened after all was said and done manufacturers moved those union jobs overseas. Prices came down because we imported cheap stuff from China. Personal computers/software/semiconductors provided us with a new "boom" domestically. We didn't get out of our mess by government spending and bailing out everyone and their brother and maintaining a "dual mandate" which is counterproductive, imo.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
History indeed very valuable. I would argue that, the FED and government would prefer higher prices, thus government tax receipts is higher. Except, our government is spending even higher. At 33 Trillions deficit and over a trillion in interest this year alone for borrowing. This interest expense is now higher than we budgeted for military spending.
I use to think our military spending is too high, not anymore. So this is good at least for people with savings, buy some short term treasury and get at least a real yield minus the inflation. But then again, the official inflation is cooked.
Shadow stats https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data has a more true number and graphs.