Housing about to Blowup

[Irvineshopper]

But with much more cash buyers and financing harder to get, won't the landing be softer than before?

 

[Irvinecommuter]

But with much more cash buyers and financing harder to get, won't the landing be softer than before?

Yup...price bubble is not necessarily the issue...it's really ability to stay.  A lot of major cities have extreme high property values for many years...it's not a bubble unless people who live there cannot afford it.

 

[Coleman]

If you are fearful of a bubble and it bursting then move to San Marino.  A friend said he looked at the numbers over the past 10 years for RE in San Marino and he said it never really went down just increased at a smaller degree.

Bring the suit case because cash is king there.

 

[freedomcm]

hah, you think that Irvine is comparable to San Marino?

good luck with that

 

[Irvinecommuter]

hah, you think that Irvine is comparable to San Marino?

good luck with that

It's not but it's getting closed to Arcadia which is also pretty recession-proof.  Irvine real estate has a lot of things going for it. 
Excellent schools, a lot of cash buyer/high income earners, and acts as a magnet for foreigners (Asians, Indians, and Persians).

 

[Goriot]

hah, you think that Irvine is comparable to San Marino?

good luck with that

It's not but it's getting closed to Arcadia which is also pretty recession-proof.  Irvine real estate has a lot of things going for it. 
Excellent schools, a lot of cash buyer/high income earners, and acts as a magnet for foreigners (Asians, Indians, and Persians).

Irvine definitely has things going for them with a planned Greatpark, new schools, etc.  However, I am a little worried about future supplies flooding the market with 9,500 proposed new homes in Greatpark, new development next to Stonegate in Jeffrey and Irvine, baker ranch, and other areas.  I wonder if all these developments will depress the market.  Hopefully, they control the flow so that excess supply gets absorbed by the market without killing the prices. 

I remember Lennar and other developers were massively building near Santa Clarita area (10k+ new homes) and that area got clobbered during the downturn.  My friend purchased a house for $600k ('03) and went up to $1.1 million ('06) at the peak and got slammed down to $450k ('08-'09).  However, can't compare to Irvine.  But, watch out for new supplies and rising rates in the next 2-3 years.

 

[qwerty]

hah, you think that Irvine is comparable to San Marino?

good luck with that

It's not but it's getting closed to Arcadia which is also pretty recession-proof.  Irvine real estate has a lot of things going for it. 
Excellent schools, a lot of cash buyer/high income earners, and acts as a magnet for foreigners (Asians, Indians, and Persians).

Irvine definitely has things going for them with a planned GreatTOXIC park, new schools, etc. 

fixed that for you.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

hah, you think that Irvine is comparable to San Marino?

good luck with that

It's not but it's getting closed to Arcadia which is also pretty recession-proof.  Irvine real estate has a lot of things going for it. 
Excellent schools, a lot of cash buyer/high income earners, and acts as a magnet for foreigners (Asians, Indians, and Persians).

Irvine definitely has things going for them with a planned Greatpark, new schools, etc.  However, I am a little worried about future supplies flooding the market with 9,500 proposed new homes in Greatpark, new development next to Stonegate in Jeffrey and Irvine, baker ranch, and other areas.  I wonder if all these developments will depress the market.  Hopefully, they control the flow so that excess supply gets absorbed by the market without killing the prices. 

I remember Lennar and other developers were massively building near Santa Clarita area (10k+ new homes) and that area got clobbered during the downturn.  My friend purchased a house for $600k ('03) and went up to $1.1 million ('06) at the peak and got slammed down to $450k ('08-'09).  However, can't compare to Irvine.  But, watch out for new supplies and rising rates in the next 2-3 years.

Just like now, there will be more desirable areas within Irvine.  Despite all of the development, Northwood Pointe, Turtle Rock, and Quail Hill are still coveted.  El Camino, Westpark, and Woodbridge are not as desirable. 

 

[Coleman]

hah, you think that Irvine is comparable to San Marino?

good luck with that

Huh? I said if one is fearful of a bubble then San Marino may be a better option.  The comment is partially made sarcastically as San Marino is quite a commute if you work in Orange County and it is also a bit pricier and may be out of range for those in the under $1,000,000 budget used to more than 1500 sq. ft. Thus not being an option for many bubble fearers even though it has been pretty recession proof in the past.

I fail to see how I compare the two.  Personally, I like the feel of San Marino neighborhoods. My wife prefers Orange County track homes with palm trees. Luckily for us, OC track homes are much cheaper, haha.

 

[usctrojancpa]

hah, you think that Irvine is comparable to San Marino?

good luck with that

It's not but it's getting closed to Arcadia which is also pretty recession-proof.  Irvine real estate has a lot of things going for it. 
Excellent schools, a lot of cash buyer/high income earners, and acts as a magnet for foreigners (Asians, Indians, and Persians).

Irvine definitely has things going for them with a planned Greatpark, new schools, etc.  However, I am a little worried about future supplies flooding the market with 9,500 proposed new homes in Greatpark, new development next to Stonegate in Jeffrey and Irvine, baker ranch, and other areas.  I wonder if all these developments will depress the market.  Hopefully, they control the flow so that excess supply gets absorbed by the market without killing the prices. 

I remember Lennar and other developers were massively building near Santa Clarita area (10k+ new homes) and that area got clobbered during the downturn.  My friend purchased a house for $600k ('03) and went up to $1.1 million ('06) at the peak and got slammed down to $450k ('08-'09).  However, can't compare to Irvine.  But, watch out for new supplies and rising rates in the next 2-3 years.

Just like now, there will be more desirable areas within Irvine.  Despite all of the development, Northwood Pointe, Turtle Rock, and Quail Hill are still coveted.  El Camino, Westpark, and Woodbridge are not as desirable. 

Woodbridge is actually pretty desirable....that's why SFRs trade at over $400/sf and the new William Lyon homes are over $500/sf.  The closer you are the lakes the higher the prices go.

 

[yaliu07]

Just like now, there will be more desirable areas within Irvine.  Despite all of the development, Northwood Pointe, Turtle Rock, and Quail Hill are still coveted.  El Camino, Westpark, and Woodbridge are not as desirable.

Why are El Camino, Westpark, Woodbridge not desirable?

Thanks

 

[qwerty]

Just like now, there will be more desirable areas within Irvine.  Despite all of the development, Northwood Pointe, Turtle Rock, and Quail Hill are still coveted.  El Camino, Westpark, and Woodbridge are not as desirable.

Why are El Camino, Westpark, Woodbridge not desirable?

Thanks

Because that's where the low income white people live

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Just like now, there will be more desirable areas within Irvine.  Despite all of the development, Northwood Pointe, Turtle Rock, and Quail Hill are still coveted.  El Camino, Westpark, and Woodbridge are not as desirable.

Why are El Camino, Westpark, Woodbridge not desirable?

Thanks

Because that's where the low income white people live

Yeah... I really wish we had higher income.

 

[Goriot]

If you are fearful of a bubble and it bursting then move to San Marino.  A friend said he looked at the numbers over the past 10 years for RE in San Marino and he said it never really went down just increased at a smaller degree.

Bring the suit case because cash is king there.

Yes.  Asians love good schools.  Also, aren't San Marino homes have on average 20,000 sqft / 0.4~0.5 Acre lots? The price is mostly for the huge lots.  Can't really compare it to tiny 3,500 sqft lots and Motorcourts in Irvine.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Just like now, there will be more desirable areas within Irvine.  Despite all of the development, Northwood Pointe, Turtle Rock, and Quail Hill are still coveted.  El Camino, Westpark, and Woodbridge are not as desirable.

Why are El Camino, Westpark, Woodbridge not desirable?

Thanks

Of on Woodbridge...there is definitely a market for house there.  It has the traditional SFRs with big yards that many here like. 

El Camino and Westpark are not as desirable IMO because of the location and age.  Those areas also don't have the community perks like pools and parks.  It's just houses next to houses.  Of course, many of those place also do not have mello roos. 

 

[bearman81]

Just like now, there will be more desirable areas within Irvine.  Despite all of the development, Northwood Pointe, Turtle Rock, and Quail Hill are still coveted.  El Camino, Westpark, and Woodbridge are not as desirable.

Why are El Camino, Westpark, Woodbridge not desirable?

Thanks

Of on Woodbridge...there is definitely a market for house there.  It has the traditional SFRs with big yards that many here like. 

El Camino and Westpark are not as desirable IMO because of the location and age.  Those areas also don't have the community perks like pools and parks.  It's just houses next to houses.  Of course, many of those place also do not have mello roos.

Of course El Camino and Westpark have pools and parks.  But they just aren't spiffy new and arent the "pocket parks" that are marketed to distract you from your postage-stamp sized lots! 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I've noticed more listings popping up on my Redfin alerts... but all pretty high.

I read an article somewhere about some places not really being in a bubble because the pricing sustains itself but it sure feels like a bubble to me. Prices now are higher than they were in 2005.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

I've noticed more listings popping up on my Redfin alerts... but all pretty high.

I read an article somewhere about some places not really being in a bubble because the pricing sustains itself but it sure feels like a bubble to me. Prices now are higher than they were in 2005.

Price can be high but it doesn't mean it's a bubble per se.  The question is whether value of the homes based upon something more than temporary demand.  There are concrete factors that support high prices for real estate in Irvine.  Just like home prices in California are extremely high compared to other areas of the US.

Question is whether the current price is sustainable...I think it is...maybe a 10-15% correction but I see the prices holding steady for about 3-5 years.

 

[bones]

.

 

[quattroporte]

Nice read. Do you guys agree that houses have never been more expensive on a monthly payment basis than right now?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...-same-housing-bubble-10-just-different-actors