HOLY SMOKES : Did i read this right? Dow below 10,000 S&P;1,100 Nasdaq 1500. Is this possible by October?

Ok Panda, IR. I'll make a prediction as well. Write it down and treasure it...It will become the truth...



DOW goes to 7,161. This will happen either intraday tomorrow and then we take off to 9,438 by xmas.

If it doesn't happen intraday tomorrow, then we close at 7,161 and then start a rally to 9,438 by xmas.



Mark my words. Tomorrow at some point will be the bottom...this is as good as US Treasury bills.



Correction. We rally to 9,483 not 9,438. Typo. I wanted to make sure I got each point correct.
 
It will go down until we have a panic herd sell. Very high volume.



Then the only ones left standing are the ones uninterested in selling. At that point buyers will have to buy for "real world value" so prices on stocks will rebound to whatever normal p/e ratio it is.



As irvinerenter says here, the bottom of the real estate market occurs when people who buy property for rental investment see a way to make money. They form the real bottom.



Stock market will be the same. People will get the deals up until the moment the last weak player has folded. When the last weak player is gone, then it's about real investment.



So until then, we wait for the capitulation. Essentially we have a lot of investors putting up "foreclosure stocks" They must sell because they need the money, or they can't take the heat.



God, I wish the capitulation would come sooner rather than later.



Was today's nearly double the volume a capitulation level of volume? What is the typical volume?
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1227263343]I was just talking to PANDA about some of this. It amazes to me how many Americans "PANIC" when they are placed out of their comfort zone. Things are NOT bad. Things are great!



Do you have food?

Do you have water?

Do you have clothes?

Do you have shelter?



My wife bless her heart sometimes worries about the future and what may come or what we might not have. I chuckle and tell her I'll take her to my country and have her live life there for a week or two. She will quickly realize that we have it DAMN GOOD in America. As far as retirement money and the economy? LOL. Most people in the world don't know what a stock market is let alone have opportunity to save for retirement. And here we are worried about DOW going south...



Maybe we'll have to drive our cars a few years longer and wear our clothes past "in style". Perhaps we eat out less and cook our own food. Perhaps we will realize that maybe we don't have to compete with the Jones' next door and in return work less and have more time to spend with family. Perhaps spending more time with family will bring forth happiness and give you an opportunity to teach good values and hard work to your children.



Perhaps by doing this...our children will clean up the mess we created and rebuild this country to what it was meant to be. We will adjust, recover and be just fine. :) Time for dinner!</blockquote>


BV, not sure where you're from but it sounds like you know what going without means and realize how good we really have it here. For a while I found myself confusing the words want and need and then spent 3 months working in India. This jogged my memory of the exact definitions ;-) It's funny I do want "stuff" just like everyone else, but I notice that, to your point, my life is a hell of a lot simpler when I am less fixiated on the Jones'. Do you know what owning a car for a couple extra years on large scale means to the auto industry versus the turn and burn 36mnth leases...? I think they are finding out.

Actually my family and I have discussed that we are cutting back on the gifts this year for Christmas and will be drawing names...I have a pretty extensive family and I don't think everyone is as comfortable as myself and we wanted to focus on spending more time with our family eating talking and enjoying each other and less time shopping for crap.



And like you said..."we will...be just fine"
 
<object width="325" height="250"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/youtube" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="325" height="250"></embed></object>



Panda says, "I like big butts and I can not lie." and all the other Irvine brothers here will not deny.



Now all of you can see what the DOW Jones will look like from 2002 - 2020.



In depressing economic moments like these, You must always put a Big smile on your face and be Happy ! :) I want to cheer you guys all up with this funny music video.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1227269372]Ok Panda, IR. I'll make a prediction as well. Write it down and treasure it...It will become the truth...



DOW goes to 7,161. This will happen either intraday tomorrow and then we take off to 9,438 by xmas.

If it doesn't happen intraday tomorrow, then we close at 7,161 and then start a rally to 9,438 by xmas.



Mark my words. Tomorrow at some point will be the bottom...this is as good as US Treasury bills.



Correction. We rally to 9,483 not 9,438. Typo. I wanted to make sure I got each point correct.</blockquote>


Actually, I think if we break 7200, we are in deep sh*t. We go to 7201 but no lower, then I am on the same page as you, but if that psychological level of 7200 breaks... I might just short everything and anything. I will be buying puts like Panda has been buying gold, lock stock and two smoking barrels all the way down to... I don't care how far it will go, my puts will have made enough money that I will go buy an island and make Panda the official cocktail maker. Breaking the 7200 level is when I start cleaning the guns, make sure I have plenty of water and food, because it will be Armageddon time.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1227277840][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1227269372]Ok Panda, IR. I'll make a prediction as well. Write it down and treasure it...It will become the truth...



DOW goes to 7,161. This will happen either intraday tomorrow and then we take off to 9,438 by xmas.

If it doesn't happen intraday tomorrow, then we close at 7,161 and then start a rally to 9,438 by xmas.



Mark my words. Tomorrow at some point will be the bottom...this is as good as US Treasury bills.



Correction. We rally to 9,483 not 9,438. Typo. I wanted to make sure I got each point correct.</blockquote>


Actually, I think if we break 7200, we are in deep sh*t. We go to 7201 but no lower, then I am on the same page as you, but if that psychological level of 7200 breaks... I might just short everything and anything. I will be buying puts like Panda has been buying gold, lock stock and two smoking barrels all the way down to... I don't care how far it will go, my puts will have made enough money that I will go buy an island and make Panda the official cocktail maker. Breaking the 7200 level is when I start cleaning the guns, make sure I have plenty of water and food, because it will be Armageddon time.</blockquote>


Back when we kept flying up and down the 8's I was in full panic mode. I worried capitulation would be at 3k. Now I'm with Irvinerenter. I don't think we'll go down below 6k. That being said, I think I'd better learn how to buy a put today. If we go below 6, I need a 5 year contingency plan, not a 2 year one. I can make it two years on my non stock savings... but not 5. Although I personally am now renting in a GREAT place to survive armegeddon.



Just fired one of our employees yesterday.



Volume has almost reached average volume and we are halfway through the day. All the stocks I track that I like are at 15 p/e ratios... I think 10 is where they are at value aren't they?
 
Jefa,

Not sure what your timeframe is, but I think we do go lower in the future. However, short-term I believe we rally strong and there is money to be made.

As far as P/E ratios...they mean nothing. Because something can drop to a 5 p/e ratio because all you have is last quarters earnings. So 5 sounds great, but what happens when next quarter their earnings drop 50%? The so called nice p/e of 5 will turn into a p/e of 20. Earnings fall, P/E rises...So unless you know a companys future in this uncertain market, then make the move.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1227263343]I was just talking to PANDA about some of this. It amazes to me how many Americans "PANIC" when they are placed out of their comfort zone. Things are NOT bad. Things are great!



Do you have food?

Do you have water?

Do you have clothes?

Do you have shelter?



My wife bless her heart sometimes worries about the future and what may come or what we might not have. I chuckle and tell her I'll take her to my country and have her live life there for a week or two. She will quickly realize that we have it DAMN GOOD in America. As far as retirement money and the economy? LOL. Most people in the world don't know what a stock market is let alone have opportunity to save for retirement. And here we are worried about DOW going south...



Maybe we'll have to drive our cars a few years longer and wear our clothes past "in style". Perhaps we eat out less and cook our own food. Perhaps we will realize that maybe we don't have to compete with the Jones' next door and in return work less and have more time to spend with family. Perhaps spending more time with family will bring forth happiness and give you an opportunity to teach good values and hard work to your children.



Perhaps by doing this...our children will clean up the mess we created and rebuild this country to what it was meant to be. We will adjust, recover and be just fine. :) Time for dinner!</blockquote>


Exactly. If you still have dinner, still have family, that's a lot better than many in the world have. Kids in Haiti seem to have to choose between one or the other (link below).



Aid workers: Hungry kids dying in Haiti

<A href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27826184/">http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27826184/</A>



Video: Lost children of Haiti - indentured servitude only option as family can't afford to feed them

<A href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20399594">http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20399594</A>
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1225819537][quote author="Trooper" date=1225813372]Not sure if it's been discussed yet, but who do you think Obama will be naming as Treasury Secretary ? It doesn't appear that he will be keeping Hank.</blockquote>


There have been a lot of rumors on who it would be, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan (<a href="http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/10/22/treasury-secretary-jamie-dimon-dont-raise-taxes-obama.html">An interesting choice I might add, because he is anti-tax increase</a>).



<a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5076702.ece">But the real deal is</a>... <em>The leading contenders to head the US Treasury in an Obama Administration are Tim Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Laurence Summers, President Clinton?s last Treasury Secretary, and Paul Volcker, who chaired the Federal Reserve from 1980 to 1987. Mr Volcker, in particular, has become an enormously influential economic adviser to Mr Obama in recent months. </em>



From what I can tell, and what I have read, I believe it will be Tim Geithner. Mainly because he follows closely to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/18/business/18subprime.html">Ed Gramlich</a>, and if Ed were alive today there would be no doubt who would be Treasury Secretary. I have some great papers by Ed in case anyone is interested.</blockquote>


Nailed it! <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFBew0GMg0hg&refer=home">Tim has been named Treasury Sec. today</a>. Also Larry will have a White House role. I wish them the best of luck, because they are certainly going to need it.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1227265636]Irvine Renter,



If you look at the steep decline of the DOW in June of 1932 it had a steep V bounce back. Same thing happened to the steep drops in the 1970s for the DOW. I believe we are close to the bottom and will see a steep V bounce back to the 10k level but will not break new highs of 14k. I also believe that the government is going to intervene in a major way.



I told all of you if you look at the stock market chart from 2002 - 2020, it will look like a BIG BUTT on the Sir-Mix-A-Lot MTV Music Video "Baby's Got Back"



We have just finished drawing the first butt cheek as DOW was 7528 in Sept 2002, hit a peak of 14k in Oct 2007 and back down to 7552 as of today. The drawing of the second butt cheek is on its way. Right now we are right between the crack of the butt.



For some of you who are still holding U.S. stocks and contemplating of selling right now, DO NOT LOST HOPE! and PLEASE DO NOT SELL RIGHT NOW!.... ! Hold tight, I do believe we are going to have a "V" shape bounce back!!!!



C'mon DOW get back on your feet and PANDA says, "Get your butt back up to 10K".



O me Gosh... I am now starting to sound like KRAMER.</blockquote>


YEAH BABY!!!!! DOW, I knew you wouldn't Let me Down!!! DOW just went from 7500 bottom to 8300. Get your butt back up to 10k - 11k range! Panda demands that you do so. The second butt cheek of the DOW Jones Chart is starting to be drawn as we speak.



"~I like BIG BUTTS and I can't LIE~!"
 
Panda, doesn't your theory require that the DOW be back down to 7500 by ~2013?
 
[quote author="Oscar" date=1227592236]Panda, doesn't your theory require that the DOW be back down to 7500 by ~2013?</blockquote>


HELL NOOO!!! Where did you get that info from.. Panda is all about the DOW going back to sane levels of 10k - 12k. I don't want to see our country go down the toilet. I sure don't want to see 20% of our fellow Americans out of work..... DO YOU???



I'm am SO TIRED of being a BEAR. I have programmed my mind to think OPTIMISTICALLY from now on about the U.S. economy. Warren Buffet, Panda is by your side.

I am also getting SICK and TIRED of listening to those DOOM and GLOOM guys on TV.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1227592969][quote author="Oscar" date=1227592236]Panda, doesn't your theory require that the DOW be back down to 7500 by ~2013?</blockquote>


HELL NOOO!!! Where did you get that info from.. Panda is all about the DOW going back to sane levels of 10k - 12k. I don't want to see our country go down the toilet. I sure don't want to see 20% of our fellow Americans out of work..... DO YOU???



I'm am SO TIRED of being a BEAR. I have programmed my mind to think OPTIMISTICALLY from now on about the U.S. economy. Warren Buffet, Panda is by your side.

I am also getting SICK and TIRED of listening to those DOOM and GLOOM guys on TV.</blockquote>


Lol. PANDA you should program your mind to be emotionless. I personally don't care if DOW goes to 1K, 100K or stays where its at. Important factor is identifying where its going before everybody else so I can profit from it. Like last Friday...YUM.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1227594721][quote author="PANDA" date=1227592969][quote author="Oscar" date=1227592236]Panda, doesn't your theory require that the DOW be back down to 7500 by ~2013?</blockquote>


HELL NOOO!!! Where did you get that info from.. Panda is all about the DOW going back to sane levels of 10k - 12k. I don't want to see our country go down the toilet. I sure don't want to see 20% of our fellow Americans out of work..... DO YOU???



I'm am SO TIRED of being a BEAR. I have programmed my mind to think OPTIMISTICALLY from now on aboutehe the U.S. economy. Warren Buffet, Panda is by your side.

I am also getting SICK and TIRED of listening to those DOOM and GLOOM guys on TV.</blockquote>


Lol. PANDA you should program your mind to be emotionless. I personally don't care if DOW goes to 1K, 100K or stays where its at. Important factor is identifying where its going before everybody else so I can profit from it. Like last Friday...YUM.</blockquote>


BV,



Hehe.... I am half joking and half serious.. I am just trying to create drama on the IHB and cheer everyone up in this depressing economic situation.



I am so emotional, trading stocks is just not my cup of tea :)
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1227592969][quote author="Oscar" date=1227592236]Panda, doesn't your theory require that the DOW be back down to 7500 by ~2013?</blockquote>


HELL NOOO!!! Where did you get that info from.. Panda is all about the DOW going back to sane levels of 10k - 12k. </blockquote>


Well...from this: <blockquote>We have just finished drawing the first butt cheek as DOW <strong>was 7528 in Sept 2002</strong>, hit a <strong>peak of 14k in Oct 2007 </strong>and back <strong>down to 7552 as of today</strong>. The drawing of the second butt cheek is on its way. Right now we are right between the crack of the butt.</blockquote>
If one side of your "butt cheek" is 7528, the peak is 14k, the "crack" is 7552, and you expect another rise to 10-12k, then the only way we get the formation you are describing is if the DOW drops back down below 7600 to complete the curve of the other cheek.



I take issue with your attempt to twist my simple question into some kind of statement of belief on my part. I never said anything about unemployment at all, I just asked you to clarify your own theory.
 
DOW UP 260 points to 8635 with a 533,000 job loss report...



Ba Ba Ba BOOOYAAA!!!! from Panda. DOW is going to 9200 - 9600 by December 31st, 2008. Mr. Bernanke, Please keep that printing press rolling.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1228542246]DOW UP 260 points to 8635 with a 533,000 job loss report...



Ba Ba Ba BOOOYAAA!!!! from Panda. DOW is going to 9200 - 9600 by December 31st, 2008. Mr. Bernanke, Please keep that printing press rolling.</blockquote>


So in your view, will never hit 8500 again. Am I right? Meaning the bottom has come and gone. Now we go up?
 
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