HOLY SMOKES : Did i read this right? Dow below 10,000 S&P;1,100 Nasdaq 1500. Is this possible by October?

[quote author="Nude" date=1226061515]You think the intra-day low of 7700 was the selling climax, IR?</blockquote>


I don't know. The volume wasn't as extremely high, but the VIX was off the charts, and during that period, there was certainly panic in the general public. Also, the selling stopped for several days thereafter. I just found it interesting how much the "typical" chart for this phenomenon that was posted before the relief rally looks so much like the actual events of period of time that followed.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1226066981][quote author="Nude" date=1226061515]You think the intra-day low of 7700 was the selling climax, IR?</blockquote>


I don't know. The volume wasn't as extremely high, but the VIX was off the charts, and during that period, there was certainly panic in the general public. Also, the selling stopped for several days thereafter. I just found it interesting how much the "typical" chart for this phenomenon that was posted before the relief rally looks so much like the actual events of period of time that followed.</blockquote>


<a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/1970s-dow-1000/">Barry just had a post showing the 30 day of the S&P 500</a>.



http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/spx-30-day-116.png



I will see if I can find a quality chart that includes the volume.
 
Peter's prediction in 2006-2007. You can see if what he is saying then is playing out right now. Enjoy!



Disclaimer:

1) He did not predict the dollar rally and the deflation that we are going through right now.

2) He did not predict that international equity will lose more than 50% of its value.



He advocates investing in Gold, Foreign Equities, and Foriegn Currencies and to get out of the dollar. I do have to give him credit for his accurate predictions he made in 2006.



<object width="325" height="250"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/youtube" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="325" height="250"></embed></object>



http://www.europac.net/radioshow_archives.asp# <- This is the link to Peter's weekly broadcast.



What do you guys think about him?
 
<blockquote>What do you guys think about him?</blockquote>


I think of him just as I think of every other analyst. A person with his/her own agenda. Take each word with a grain of salt and then do research on it to confirm that they make sense.



I think down the road inflation will be a factor...how can you time it though?



Does gold go from 750 to 300 in the next 3 years. Then gold soars from 300 to 750 after that? Or does gold stay calm and then soars?
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1227240242]<blockquote>What do you guys think about him?</blockquote>


I think of him just as I think of every other analyst. A person with his/her own agenda. Take each word with a grain of salt and then do research on it to confirm that they make sense.



I think down the road inflation will be a factor...how can you time it though?



Does gold go from 750 to 300 in the next 3 years. Then gold soars from 300 to 750 after that? Or does gold stay calm and then soars?</blockquote>


I hear ya BV.



If i took Peter's advice and held onto my international stocks this year, I would of been down 60%. I am still holding my positions in Gold and Foreign currencies which Peter also feels very strongly about.

.

I remember reading your post while back on the Gold/Dow ratio. Do you think that's going to happen where 1 DOW = 1 ounce of Gold?



Only if borrowing Graph's time machine was for real.



Panda
 
<blockquote>He advocates investing in Gold, Foreign Equities, and Foriegn Currencies and to get out of the dollar. I do have to give him credit for his accurate predictions he made in 2006. </blockquote>


i think its safe to say that nobody should get credit for any good calls made in 06 or 07 if they were wrong in 08. even david lereah was right for yrs and yrs.
 
DOW is down to 7552. It is starting to get REALLY Ridiculous!! ENOUGH is ENOUGH! Is this country going down the toliet or WHAT? Now, Panda is starting to get MAD!. Panda wants the DOW to RECOVER NOW! Sept of 2002 was 7591 which was our last bottom and we are below that today?



I'm just curious. Is the vast majority on this forum all sold out and sitting on cash? This is freakin scary. Does anyone here believe we may have a sharp "V" bounce back to 11k and above or am I dreaming?
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1227242229]DOW is down to 7552. It is starting to get REALLY Ridiculous!! ENOUGH is ENOUGH! Is this country going down the toliet or WHAT? Now, Panda is starting to get MAD!. Panda wants the DOW to RECOVER NOW! I should have never started this STUPID thread. :(



Does anyone here think we may have a sharp "V" bounce back to 11k and above or am I dreaming?



Why are the corrupt, unresponsible Politicians, Wall Street Sharks, and CEOs getting REWARDED and the honest, responsible, hard working Americans in main street getting PUNISHED?</blockquote>


Not a chance. Do me a favor and look at these two graphs and tell me where you think DOW should be based on the picture. Also take a look at Nikkei...the country that already had their housing bubble implosion and their lost decade...or two. Hell I said long time ago that DOW will be at 7K and an extreme estimate where DOW/Gold ratio could be at 1-3. So if gold is at 750, dow could be anywhere between 750-2250. Right now its roughly a 10:1 ratio.



Here is the DOW....

<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined">DOW</a>



Here is the Nikkei...

<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225#symbol=^N225;range=my">Nikkei</a>



If it doesn't work then just look at a max chart of DOW and Nikkei on a regular chart setting...linear vs. logarithmic and you will see where were are headed.
 
Graph,



What is your opinion? 7500 DOW, this has to be the bottom. Optimus and Muzie, where are you guys? Tell me what's on your minds. BV, I hope you are not talking 5000-6000 DOW because we would see 20% unemployment if this were the case. I sure hope that you are wrong. The Bear that i am, i do not want to see this happen to the U.S. economy. Too many good, honest, responsible Americans in main street are going to suffer.



BV, I'm not joking around about this. This is serious.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1227247177]Graph,



What is your opinion? 7500 DOW, this has to be the bottom. Optimus and Muzie, where are you guys? Tell me what's on your minds. BV, I hope you are not talking 5000-6000 DOW because we would see 20% unemployment if this were the case. I sure hope that you are wrong. The Bear that i am, i do not want to see this happen to the U.S. economy. Too many good, honest, responsible Americans in main street are going to suffer.</blockquote>


Nobody wants to see that happen. The problem is the idiots on wallstreet F'ed up the economy through greed. The last 10 years of our economy has been built on nothing but credit. Average income fell from 2000-2008, yet our economy grew? The dow went from 9k to 14K? Doesn't make sense....Oh yeah I know...we maxed our credit cards, we bought homes and withdrew the equity to buy even more toys. Hmm...where can we withdraw from now...OH YEAH...I KNOW...I'm going to sell everything in my 401K, I don't care about the tax penalty...I need the greens baby!!!!



Also, stock market increased because of the 401K. 10-15 years ago 401K was non existant, but now everybody contributes to it...or did. This increases money supply and that money has to go somewhere so it will naturally increase price of stocks. This was also fueled big time by baby boombers. This is something I wrote about long ago and got stoned and got my head cut off by pretty much everybody on this forum. It was when I wrote about price manipulation and how it occurs all the time. Perhaps its more evident now that price manipulation happens in many forms and fundamentals will prevail only so far. This was posted when I first joined here.

But babyboomers and their 401K contributions artificially increased prices of stocks. So expect the DOW to continue to go down on that notion alone. As they retire...those funds will be withdrawn and when people sell prices go down. Who will fill the void? Yes in return the corps will get the cash and increase their profits, but once boomers die, the profits die as well...so things will come back down. Oh and since the 401Ks have evaporated, boomers won't have the same purchasing power. Throw in on top of that the future implosion of Ssecurity, medicare and soaring job losses, forclosures, and hundreds of household names on verge of bankrupcy...then yes. a 5K dow should be considered a gift.



Greed wasnt just fueled by wall-street. It was fueled by everybody. It was irresponsible spending from everybody. America is all about buy buy buy. I must have this I must have that. I came from a 3rd world country and we drove a car for 25 years and not replaced one every 3 like here. I wore a pair of pants till they wore out...and then my mother would patch the worn out spot. Once I had about 10 patches, we went out and bought new pants. Actually, if my memory serves me correct, she usually sewed a pair of pants. We played outside and didn't have toys. We ate rice, potatoes and beans as they were cheap. We grew our own produce and on X-mas I had a piece of chocolate.



I'm not afraid of the future and I'm always thankful for everything I have because I came from much much worse. When I came to America I couldn't believe my eyes how much you can have with the work you put in. I could have worked 10x harder in my country and barely covered food. Yet there are so many lazy mfer's complaining about everything. America is lazy, fat and charge happy...face it. A collapse shouldn't be suprising.



So in my opinion, a recession or a depression is a good thing. Maybe people will learn a fing lession to spend within their means and be thankful that they have food on the table. Including our own corrupt government.



Sorry I can get pretty upset about things like this, but I almost don't feel sorry for anybody either. We all make our own beds.
 
Panda, I really don't think you are grasping the totality of what is happening here. Money that was once free flowing from Investment Banks is gone, locked up tight in the former IB's new safe until all of this blows over. Money that routinely invested in the stock market, specifically hedge funds, over the last 15 years is being returned to investors as fast as it can be liquidated. Massive discretionary spending reductions in everything from pleasure drives to new TVs to dinner and a movie is declining at a breathtaking pace. The world's economy, which for the last generation has been driven by consumer spending financed by consumer debt, has come to a screeching halt. 450+ drops in the DJIA doesn't surprise me nor does an S&P at 752, what surprises me is that it is taking so long. I think we'll see the Dow down to sub-4000 before a hard bottom is set, possibly sub-2000 as in the early 80's. Without the high-flying capital investments that fueled the growth I don't see anything pushing it back up over the next few years either.
 
I agree with previous posters on the fundamentals, but also I think that irrational exuberance cuts on both ways, when thigs are going up and when things are going down, and you can also get intoxicated with negative kool aid, I don't think the world is going to end and "one day this war is going to be over", and there are things that you can do right now that in the long term will be very good.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1227248810][quote author="PANDA" date=1227247177]Graph,



What is your opinion? 7500 DOW, this has to be the bottom. Optimus and Muzie, where are you guys? Tell me what's on your minds. BV, I hope you are not talking 5000-6000 DOW because we would see 20% unemployment if this were the case. I sure hope that you are wrong. The Bear that i am, i do not want to see this happen to the U.S. economy. Too many good, honest, responsible Americans in main street are going to suffer.</blockquote>


Nobody wants to see that happen. The problem is the idiots on wallstreet F'ed up the economy through greed. The last 10 years of our economy has been built on nothing but credit. Average income fell from 2000-2008, yet our economy grew? The dow went from 9k to 14K? Doesn't make sense....Oh yeah I know...we maxed our credit cards, we bought homes and withdrew the equity to buy even more toys. Hmm...where can we withdraw from now...OH YEAH...I KNOW...I'm going to sell everything in my 401K, I don't care about the tax penalty...I need the greens baby!!!!



Also, stock market increased because of the 401K. 10-15 years ago 401K was non existant, but now everybody contributes to it...or did. This increases money supply and that money has to go somewhere so it will naturally increase price of stocks. This was also fueled big time by baby boombers. This is something I wrote about long ago and got stoned and got my head cut off by pretty much everybody on this forum. It was when I wrote about price manipulation and how it occurs all the time. Perhaps its more evident now that price manipulation happens in many forms and fundamentals will prevail only so far. This was posted when I first joined here.

But babyboomers and their 401K contributions artificially increased prices of stocks. So expect the DOW to continue to go down on that notion alone. As they retire...those funds will be withdrawn and when people sell prices go down. Who will fill the void? Yes in return the corps will get the cash and increase their profits, but once boomers die, the profits die as well...so things will come back down. Oh and since the 401Ks have evaporated, boomers won't have the same purchasing power. Throw in on top of that the future implosion of Ssecurity, medicare and soaring job losses, forclosures, and hundreds of household names on verge of bankrupcy...then yes. a 5K dow should be considered a gift.



Greed wasnt just fueled by wall-street. It was fueled by everybody. It was irresponsible spending from everybody. America is all about buy buy buy. I must have this I must have that. I came from a 3rd world country and we drove a car for 25 years and not replaced one every 3 like here. I wore a pair of pants till they wore out...and then my mother would patch the worn out spot. Once I had about 10 patches, we went out and bought new pants. Actually, if my memory serves me correct, she usually sewed a pair of pants. We played outside and didn't have toys. We ate rice, potatoes and beans as they were cheap. We grew our own produce and on X-mas I had a piece of chocolate.



I'm not afraid of the future and I'm always thankful for everything I have because I came from much much worse. When I came to America I couldn't believe my eyes how much you can have with the work you put in. I could have worked 10x harder in my country and barely covered food. Yet there are so many lazy mfer's complaining about everything. America is lazy, fat and charge happy...face it. A collapse shouldn't be suprising.



So in my opinion, a recession or a depression is a good thing. Maybe people will learn a fing lession to spend within their means and be thankful that they have food on the table. Including our own corrupt government.



Sorry I can get pretty upset about things like this, but I almost don't feel sorry for anybody either. We all make our own beds.</blockquote> I feel exactly the same, although I am born and bred in Southern California, my family is originally from WV and OH...coal mines, steel mills and hunters. I was never allowed to get fat and lazy or else it meant an ass kicking from someone in my family in a Darwinistic sense. A rough life forges what I think are some of the most independent people, not the hand out, mouth open people that seem to populate the growing ranks. I am amazed how many men and women don't know a damn thing about surviving on their own with just the basics...clothese on their back, roof over their head and bowl of beans in their stomach.





The DOW should be near 5500s if you look at the long term graph...linear consistent growth my ass...curve is correcting and I can't be happier about it!
 
I was just talking to PANDA about some of this. It amazes to me how many Americans "PANIC" when they are placed out of their comfort zone. Things are NOT bad. Things are great!



Do you have food?

Do you have water?

Do you have clothes?

Do you have shelter?



My wife bless her heart sometimes worries about the future and what may come or what we might not have. I chuckle and tell her I'll take her to my country and have her live life there for a week or two. She will quickly realize that we have it DAMN GOOD in America. As far as retirement money and the economy? LOL. Most people in the world don't know what a stock market is let alone have opportunity to save for retirement. And here we are worried about DOW going south...



Maybe we'll have to drive our cars a few years longer and wear our clothes past "in style". Perhaps we eat out less and cook our own food. Perhaps we will realize that maybe we don't have to compete with the Jones' next door and in return work less and have more time to spend with family. Perhaps spending more time with family will bring forth happiness and give you an opportunity to teach good values and hard work to your children.



Perhaps by doing this...our children will clean up the mess we created and rebuild this country to what it was meant to be. We will adjust, recover and be just fine. :) Time for dinner!
 
Judging by all the negative market sentiment in this thread, we are getting near the bottom. When people start talking about the DOW at 2000 when we are already at 11 year lows at 7500, the bearish sentiment has taken over. I believe the next leg down will be the last for this move. We just broke support today, and judging by the previous bear rally as a guide, I think we will bottom between 6000-6500. I will go long there.
 
Irvine Renter,



If you look at the steep decline of the DOW in June of 1932 it had a steep V bounce back. Same thing happened to the steep drops in the 1970s for the DOW. I believe we are close to the bottom and will see a steep V bounce back to the 10k level but will not break new highs of 14k. I also believe that the government is going to intervene in a major way.



I told all of you if you look at the stock market chart from 2002 - 2020, it will look like a BIG BUTT on the Sir-Mix-A-Lot MTV Music Video "Baby's Got Back"



We have just finished drawing the first butt cheek as DOW was 7528 in Sept 2002, hit a peak of 14k in Oct 2007 and back down to 7552 as of today. The drawing of the second butt cheek is on its way. Right now we are right between the crack of the butt.



For some of you who are still holding U.S. stocks and contemplating of selling right now, DO NOT LOST HOPE! and PLEASE DO NOT SELL RIGHT NOW!.... ! Hold tight, I do believe we are going to have a "V" shape bounce back!!!!



C'mon DOW get back on your feet and PANDA says, "Get your butt back up to 10K".



O me Gosh... I am now starting to sound like KRAMER.
 
I personally have no idea where the DOW is headed but I will offer this:



The majority of top wealth managers in Orange County are in short term buying mode. The general consensus is we are headed for a big rally by the end of the year followed by prolonged decline in 2009. Sure, they could be totally wrong. But I figure most of them have 30-40 years experience so they probably know better than me.



Another a little interesting industry inside tid bit, to give solace to all my fellow renters out there... At our last regional financial planning conference, I was taken aback by a discussion about real estate where a good part of the room admitted to renting a home over buying. I know a lot of these guys make like 7 figures so I was a little surprised. I guess that is why they make the big bucks because they are smart to wait.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1227265636]Irvine Renter,



If you look at the steep decline of the DOW in June of 1932 it had a steep V bounce back. Same thing happened to the steep drops in the 1970s for the DOW. I believe we are close to the bottom and will see a steep V bounce back to the 10k level but will not break new highs of 14k. I also believe that the government is going to intervene in a major way.



I told all of you if you look at the stock market chart from 2002 - 2020, it will look like a BIG BUTT on the Sir-Mix-A-Lot MTV Music Video "Baby's Got Back"



We have just finished drawing the first butt cheek as DOW was 7528 in Sept 2002, hit a peak of 14k in Oct 2007 and back down to 7552 as of today. The drawing of the second butt cheek is on its way. Right now we are right between the crack of the butt.



For some of you who are still holding U.S. stocks and contemplating of selling right now, DO NOT LOST HOPE! and PLEASE DO NOT SELL RIGHT NOW!.... ! Hold tight, I do believe we are going to have a "V" shape bounce back!!!!



C'mon DOW get back on your feet and PANDA says, "Get your butt back up to 10K".



O me Gosh... I am now starting to sound like KRAMER.</blockquote>


I have no idea what the market will be doing tomorrow much less 12 years from now. When the economy turns to crap, there is little need for businesses to expand, so stock prices plummet. The market generally leads the recovery by 6 months or more. If I buy at 6000-6500 for a long-term hold, I might get burned, but I believe we will be higher than 6000-6500 three to five years from now. If not, the recession was really, really bad.
 
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