HOLY SMOKES : Did i read this right? Dow below 10,000 S&P;1,100 Nasdaq 1500. Is this possible by October?

[quote author="graphrix" date=1223648842][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1223640413]You just stuck a knife in Panda's heart and twisted it around a couple of times... I think I've told him on 26 different PMs not to bet against the dollar!</blockquote>


Funny that, I have said that to him at least 26 times publicly. Didn't he say he had moved money into the Korean Yuan? That had to hurt. Well... at least he has the emerging markets and how he loaded up on the dips on FXI. Er... wait, nevermind. Everything from Asia to Britain is getting slaughtered right now. Brutal beat downs right now. Well, gold is up $42 an ounce, so he got one thing right, for the moment.</blockquote>


Graph, first it is the Korean Won, not the Yuan. Yuan/Remebi is Chinese currency. C'mon, you claim to love K-Food and have a Korean best friend and you don't even know this?



So IPO has warned me 26 times through PM and Graph have publicly told me 26 times not to bet against the dollar. That is a total of 52 warnings to Panda.



I think that i am going to go ahead and bet against the dollar, especially right now. I think that some of you sitting on 100% U.S. dollars as the ultimate safe haven are in for a big suprise here soon. Laugh at the Panda now, and let time pass.
 
Could turn out to be a non-event, but then again ...



<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aa6nmsv7BakE&refer=home">Lehman swaps</a>



I think the acution starts at 10:30am.
 
yikes, pimco total return is one of the largest positions in my 401k and has been a relatively good safe place this yr. the default risk makes fixed income look just as scary as equities.



how do businesses overseas outperform when all their best clients in america are in the toilet. i think graph is right -- cash cash and more cash. sorry panda.
 
Everyone



Do not sell your U.S. Stocks if you haven't already. You will be selling at THE WORST TIME possible. I think that we are close to a bottom on the DOW. Sept 2, 2002 bottom was 7600. I just can't imagine the the DOW going below this. At this moment, I really want our DOW to get back up to 10,000.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1223677447]Everyone



Do not sell your U.S. Stocks if you haven't already. You will be selling at THE WORST TIME possible. I think that we are close to a bottom on the DOW. Sept 2, 2002 bottom was 7600. I just can't imagine the the DOW going below this. At this moment, I really want our DOW to get back up to 10,000.</blockquote>


I think it's time to start a new thread.... "Holy Shi*: Dow 5000 by Xmas!"
 
isn't it always the worst possible time? when the mkt is going up, you're a fool to sell. when it's tanking, you're a fool to sell at the bottom.



the name of the game now is capital preservation. people would rather miss part of the rebound than bear more of any downturn. one of my buddies tells me the mkt-neutral fund he works for is down to 20% long / 20% short, i.e. they're 80% in cash! many institutional investors are very happy with the managers that have made the move into cash over the last few wks. it's saved them a world of hurt.
 
Roubini today predicted DOW will continue to drop to 7000 level over the next several weeks although a market meltdown poses risks of a 20% drop in one day.
 
The problem is some people must sell.

They don`t have any choice. And when a hedge gets massive redemtions

then they too bail on their positions. We are getting close to a bottom.

If you look at it this way. Another week of this and we will be around

5000. Thats like 1996 levels. Almost where housing prices will end up when we are done

with the housing correction.



Hey do you guys/gals remember when GW Bush wanted to invest the Social Security

Trust Fund in the Stock Market ?
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1223681388]It sure feels like there is sufficient panic out there now for a bottom to be near. I am pushing the kid's IRAs and 529s back into equities from their cash and stable value positions today.</blockquote>


In the education IRAs today, I bought SPY, QQQQ, and DIA. Entry points were SPY at 87, QQQQ at 30, and DIA at 82. Only $18K worth combined so its not even worth trading them considering commission costs at ETrade. My boys are locked in for a while now it seems...
 
This whole experience has been really strange for me...In anticipation of this meltdown I'm lucky enough to have had a very large percentage of my portfolio 2X short on the indexes (vis-a-vis SDS and SRS) since last November. Yet I still find myself unable to sleep at night. While I'm supremely grateful to be on this side of the coin, I can't help but be really really scared for the bigger picture and the future of our country.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1223664619]Graph, first it is the Korean Won, not the Yuan. Yuan/Remebi is Chinese currency. C'mon, you claim to love K-Food and have a Korean best friend and you don't even know this?



So IPO has warned me 26 times through PM and Graph have publicly told me 26 times not to bet against the dollar. That is a total of 52 warnings to Panda.



I think that i am going to go ahead and bet against the dollar, especially right now. I think that some of you sitting on 100% U.S. dollars as the ultimate safe haven are in for a big suprise here soon. Laugh at the Panda now, and let time pass.</blockquote>


Yes, I know that it is the Korean Won, and from previous posts you would know this if you read them and retained them. I was tired and made a little mistake. But really it isn't important who gets the correct spelling of the currency right, it is important who is right on the direction of the dollar. So you go ahead and bet against the dollar, I'm sure you will be right some day. For now, and the near future, the dollar will be going up and Panda will be losing money. DXY is up $0.94 1.12% today, the trend is your friend Panda, don't betray your friend. Can I come with you and deuce when you are looking at condos in Santa Ana instead of Irvine because you keep getting hosed on the Korean Won?



IHBers, Panda is a bigger nutter than me, and I know it is hard to believe, but it's true. So choose your investments wisely, and some friendly advice... DO NOT BET AGAINST THE DOLLAR! Ever since Panda has been betting against the dollar it has only gone up. Now wonder Panda's posts are a little angry these days, he has been horribly wrong about the dollar and all he has left is to make fun of the people who warned him not to bet against the dollar. Sad Panda, very, very sad Panda.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1223683401][quote author="PANDA" date=1223664619]Graph, first it is the Korean Won, not the Yuan. Yuan/Remebi is Chinese currency. C'mon, you claim to love K-Food and have a Korean best friend and you don't even know this?



So IPO has warned me 26 times through PM and Graph have publicly told me 26 times not to bet against the dollar. That is a total of 52 warnings to Panda.



I think that i am going to go ahead and bet against the dollar, especially right now. I think that some of you sitting on 100% U.S. dollars as the ultimate safe haven are in for a big suprise here soon. Laugh at the Panda now, and let time pass.</blockquote>


Yes, I know that it is the Korean Won, and from previous posts you would know this if you read them and retained them. I was tired and made a little mistake. But really it isn't important who gets the correct spelling of the currency right, it is important who is right on the direction of the dollar. So you go ahead and bet against the dollar, I'm sure you will be right some day. For now, and the near future, the dollar will be going up and Panda will be losing money. DXY is up $0.94 1.12% today, the trend is your friend Panda, don't betray your friend. Can I come with you and deuce when you are looking at condos in Santa Ana instead of Irvine because you keep getting hosed on the Korean Won?



IHBers, Panda is a bigger nutter than me, and I know it is hard to believe, but it's true. So choose your investments wisely, and some friendly advice... DO NOT BET AGAINST THE DOLLAR! Ever since Panda has been betting against the dollar it has only gone up. Now wonder Panda's posts are a little angry these days, he has been horribly wrong about the dollar and all he has left is to make fun of the people who warned him not to bet against the dollar. Sad Panda, very, very sad Panda.</blockquote>


So is Panda the perfect contrarian indicator? When he goes long dollars we should all bail out?
 
There is a tendency among almost all speculators to lose their objectivity once they have taken a position in the market. Panda has convinced himself the dollar will decline. When all the market data and impartial analysis has shown the dollar will not decline, he is still looking for data points to make his original decision correct. It is the same phenomenon you used to see with Truthi/Provider/Nutcase over at Lansner's blog. She was convinced real estate would only go up, and she bought an overpriced home right at the peak. Rather than recognize and admit a mistake she would disparately seek out data points consistent with her original opinion. Of course, the only data point that mattered -- the price -- was moving strongly against her, just as it is with Panda.



Panda, the dollar is going to go up. Close your position and watch. Don't waste your time scoring the internet for someone else who shares your view. It will not impact the value of the dollar.
 
[quote author="BLUE FIRE" date=1223682384]This whole experience has been really strange for me...In anticipation of this meltdown I'm lucky enough to have had a very large percentage of my portfolio 2X short on the indexes (vis-a-vis SDS and SRS) since last November. Yet I still find myself unable to sleep at night. While I'm supremely grateful to be on this side of the coin, I can't help but be really really scared for the bigger picture and the future of our country.</blockquote>


Has the collapse of America crossed my mind? Many times. But thats not necessarily a bad thing (thinking about it) if it helps you prep or position yourself accordingly. I love America, but I love myself more. If for some odd reason it goes down and this becomes a third world country, I won't rule out going to another country who emerges victorious out of this mess. (this is all hypothetical at this point)



If you can't sleep at night use that time to learn new languages and cultures. America can be here today, it can also disappear tomorrow where another country is the next powerhouse of the future. During major crises balance of power can shift drastically changing the playing field where other country(s) emerge. America profited immensly by engaging in WWII; where it emerged as the "big daddy".



So maybe there is value to learning and adapting to other cultures eh? Or perhaps just keeping your cool and an open mind. For myself, the biggest thing I value is adaptation. If you can adapt quickly to your environment you can have a clear mind to make the right decisions. Some panic, some adapt and profit.
 
[quote author="BLUE FIRE" date=1223682384]This whole experience has been really strange for me...In anticipation of this meltdown I'm lucky enough to have had a very large percentage of my portfolio 2X short on the indexes (vis-a-vis SDS and SRS) since last November. Yet I still find myself unable to sleep at night. While I'm supremely grateful to be on this side of the coin, I can't help but be really really scared for the bigger picture and the future of our country.</blockquote>


ditto on the positions and on the not able to sleep at night. no matter how well my positions do, somehow the idea of the world burning all around us doesnt sit right. i'd rather win a marathon because i was the fastest, strongest, and best-trained... not because everyone else got hit by a bus.
 
<a href="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/10-bullish-sign.html">Barry goes all bullish with 10 charts to explain why</a>. In so many ways, I am inclined to agree, but since the Dow keeps breaking through support levels, and the new support level being 8000 and the resistance being 8250 the support level it just firmly broke, I am still reluctant to jump in. I have been a knife catcher before, and it hurts.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1223687608]<a href="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/10-bullish-sign.html">Barry goes all bullish with 10 charts to explain why</a>. In so many ways, I am inclined to agree, but since the Dow keeps breaking through support levels, and the new support level being 8000 and the resistance being 8250 the support level it just firmly broke, I am still reluctant to jump in. I have been a knife catcher before, and it hurts.</blockquote>


I was going to start buying in, but now I've decided to wait until 2009. I may miss some rebounds, but the volatility this final quarter is going to blow. It will be interesting to see how Christmas retails sales go this year. I remember last year the Nordstrom's sales people were complaining to me about it last holiday season when I was in there to get a suit altered. I can only guess it will be much worse this year.



Edit: I'm taking a long holding though (at least 3-5 years), so maybe my thought process is different from many of you guys.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1223664619][quote author="graphrix" date=1223648842][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1223640413]You just stuck a knife in Panda's heart and twisted it around a couple of times... I think I've told him on 26 different PMs not to bet against the dollar!</blockquote>


Funny that, I have said that to him at least 26 times publicly. Didn't he say he had moved money into the Korean Yuan? That had to hurt. Well... at least he has the emerging markets and how he loaded up on the dips on FXI. Er... wait, nevermind. Everything from Asia to Britain is getting slaughtered right now. Brutal beat downs right now. Well, gold is up $42 an ounce, so he got one thing right, for the moment.</blockquote>


Graph, first it is the Korean Won, not the Yuan. Yuan/Remebi is Chinese currency. C'mon, you claim to love K-Food and have a Korean best friend and you don't even know this?



So IPO has warned me 26 times through PM and Graph have publicly told me 26 times not to bet against the dollar. That is a total of 52 warnings to Panda.



I think that i am going to go ahead and bet against the dollar, especially right now. I think that some of you sitting on 100% U.S. dollars as the ultimate safe haven are in for a big suprise here soon. Laugh at the Panda now, and let time pass.</blockquote>


OK...here's another CHANCE to earn $50 instead of doing the CHEST POUNDING WOULDA COULDA BS YOU PULL!!



Here's the BET.



The EURO is at $1.34 vs the USD.



My bet...if the EURO hits $1.50 vs the USD in the next 6 months...YOU WIN $50. If it doesn't, I win $50.



The $1.50 target is fair considering over a 4 month span the EURO has gone from $1.60 to $1.34.



YES or NO?



Come on Panda...MAN-UP!
 
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