Hidden Canyon in Irvine

[/quote]

  HC had a perfect timing in regards to market/interest cycle and you have locals from the Beach Cities that are trading for new with higher buying power.  HC had grand opening at the peak of FCB wave which is slowing as well.

[/quote]

One thing to note is the better / higher priced lots actually sold more recently which is supposedly after the "FCB wave " of 2015 .  So not sure that is as big a factor as far these high end homes are concerned. 

I do agree that lot of locals are moving into HC over Newport Coast , which says a lot about desirability.  Newport Coast will always have the mega sales to the likes of Kobe Bryant but at the HC-range price levels , it seems people are not finding much value there over these new construction floor plans. 
 
Latest price sheet from Capri. Pretty much the only homes remaining are quick delivery homes, a couple of homes on smaller lots, and the models.

There is still a row of non-view lots opposite Marbella models that won't go up for sale for another 3 months.
 

Attachments

  • IMG_3116.JPG
    IMG_3116.JPG
    1.3 MB · Views: 420
The sales guy told me there is someone interested in the Capri model home. He expects a deposit made for it next week. That would leave Portifino as the only model home left.
 
So sad to hear about this.  I can't imagine what it must have been like for the parents to be there as witnesses to the accident.  My prayers go out to them.
 
Refreshing this thread after a while.  Anyone know whats up with all these " green " homes that are now available.  So far it seems every phase has had buyers lined up already before homes are released.  This latest one does not seem to be the case .  Maybe has to do w the location (non view) ?
 
Too much inventory at the $3m+ all-in price point. But I do think the last phase or so of view homes will still see a bunch of interest.
 
marutaro said:
Marbella models released for sale:

Avalon 4.6m
Cassis 4.9m
Santa Monica 5.5m

A little under $1k/sf

Marbella models were done really well.  I think the Santa Monica sits on a huge lot as well.  Will be interesting to see what price these clear at. Compared to the Capri models , these seem a little better "value " (if there can be such a term at this price point) .
 
Latest price sheet from Capri. It's surprising that lot 247 is priced quite reasonably given the lot size of over 7500 sqft and considering this is the last phase. They didn't list lot 248 but it's supposedly similarly priced with nearly the same lot size. Prices essentially is the same as a year ago. That's got to be a little disappointing for those who got in early hoping to score big on price jumps. This also makes it all the more surprising that the Capri models are still going for $4M+.
 

Attachments

  • IMG_3393.JPG
    IMG_3393.JPG
    1.3 MB · Views: 229
Lot size and location seem to mean a lot here. I've noticed toll has no problem selling homes that close at $4m+ on premium lots . . . But they struggle with homes that close below $2.5m, which are usually sandwiched in the middle of a street and back a shallow hill.  With all of that said, I still think pretty much all early buyers will end up doing really well if they hold on for a couple years post-close out. HC is a truly unique product, even if it's not for everyone.  As a side note, once landscaping is in on some of these smaller lots, I think you are actually going to see their values catch up a bit.
 
Aside from the models which have been insanely updgraded, how much appreciation would you expect from Hidden Canyon in the next 3-5 years from today's price range?
10%
25%
50%

If I compare it to Shady Canyon tract homes which sold in the mid $2 millions in 2002-2004 they are selling around $3.25-$3.5 million today. Although the lots in Shady Canyon start at around 15,000 sq ft. compared to Hidden Canyon which starts at 6000 sq ft for the lowest price point.

 
New pricing sheets for Marbella.

Last 5 homes on Canyon Retreat released. 
 

Attachments

  • IMG_7795 (1).jpg
    IMG_7795 (1).jpg
    521.1 KB · Views: 233
  • IMG_7797 (1).jpg
    IMG_7797 (1).jpg
    317.3 KB · Views: 354
  • IMG_7796 (1).jpg
    IMG_7796 (1).jpg
    313.9 KB · Views: 363
I heard that Capri is in their last phase and are basically sold out.
Only 9 more home left (between $2.35M and $4M)...

The two model homes.
1st one from the entrance: $4.19 M
2nd one from the entrance: $4.29M

Marbella on the other hand there is one more phase.
7 homes currently available

All three model homes for sale:
1st one (Avalon): $4.6M
2nd one (Cassis): $4.9M
3rd one (Santa Monica): $5.5.M

The lady said they were selling like hotcakes and don.t expect them to be around in a month or so...

That being said, the first batch of homes in Phase 1 for Capri were under $1.8M...

Can you imagine if you purchased back then and your home essentially is selling for 30% more now? Cash is king...
 
Honestly, the gains aren't THAT impressive.

First, only a handful of people got the early phase pricing. Most of those lots were at the bottom 1/3 in terms of desirability so the gains aren't really apples to apples. It's fair to say the average gain is probably much less than that for most people who bought there.

If you bought S&P 500 beginning of 2015, you are up around 20%. Many individual stocks are up much more. FB up 80%, AMZN and NFLX up around 300%. I can find hundreds of other stocks up as much.

So nice gains, but there were better places to speculate/invest if you are a baller with millions in cash.

That said, HC has been a huge success for TOLL and early buyers and I have no doubt they will sell out soon. 
 
With an assumptive average net net profit (after land, infrastructure, taxes, carry cost, salaries, materiel, subcontractors, insurance, etc - the whole thing) of $1m clean per lot, this was a very successful tract for them.

My .02c

Soylent Green is People
 
Rtlguru said:
Honestly, the gains aren't THAT impressive. 

But, you do have the benefit of leverage if you buy a house with a loan and you can get up $500k profit tax free for married couples.
 
Back
Top