Great Park Retail

[Mety]

I think all homes in Irvine will generally go up...GP included.  Question is whether such appreciation is better, equal to, or lower than other comparable areas. 

Historically, I think PP has not appreciated as well as Stonegate or EW but that's just on my fuzzy memory.  Not sure about BP.

We recently spent some time in the parks in BP and I have to say that the amenities are nice but the lay out is just weird....feels like you are on the edge of the frontier.

I also worry about noise and light pollution.

I actually thought kinda similar about the layout. I visited one of those GP parks since I thought it was all cool and hip, but I didn't like it much for they seemed to lack a little bit of greenery. I liked PS or WB amenities more. But it's just my opinion. Some people might've loved GP ones.

Appreciation wise, I also think Stongate and Eastwood are more assuring choices, not necessarily guaranteeing a better life quality though.

Interesting - do you say SG and EV are stronger choices due to their proximity to the WB shopping center? I would argue that the GP homes are just as close plus they sit along the 133 and you can backdoor it to the 5 via Marine Way. Or is it more about the home layouts? There?s some funky floor plans in GP which may exclude multi-gen families (we?ve had to cut out some places that had 3 stories).

The Sales Manager at Cadence Park told me there?s plans for a fitness chain + a few restaurant chains in the CP area over the next 12-18 months - not sure if she was pulling MY chain but it would make sense to have something in that area so the Pavilion Park peeps have some options as well. If that is the case, I can see CP getting a quick boost in value.

If GP retail included a Target and Whole Foods I can only imagine the insanity that would ensue.

I actually like the interior layouts from GP. They are more unique and up-to-date instead of cookie cutters like TIC homes. But those TIC homes will give you less Mello-Roos money out of your pocket each year. As you might already know, MR from GP homes are ridiculous and they rise 2% each year when TIC MR will get less and less each year. I see it as a pure marketing strategy and it's working so far (example: Cypress Village East).

cancel amazon prime.  that's your 2% right there.

Good point, but I don't think that's a compelling argument for investors move their mind.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

cancel amazon prime.  that's your 2% right there.

Shots fired!!

 

[Irvinecommuter]

I think all homes in Irvine will generally go up...GP included.  Question is whether such appreciation is better, equal to, or lower than other comparable areas. 

Historically, I think PP has not appreciated as well as Stonegate or EW but that's just on my fuzzy memory.  Not sure about BP.

We recently spent some time in the parks in BP and I have to say that the amenities are nice but the lay out is just weird....feels like you are on the edge of the frontier.

I also worry about noise and light pollution.

I actually thought kinda similar about the layout. I visited one of those GP parks since I thought it was all cool and hip, but I didn't like it much for they seemed to lack a little bit of greenery. I liked PS or WB amenities more. But it's just my opinion. Some people might've loved GP ones.

Appreciation wise, I also think Stongate and Eastwood are more assuring choices, not necessarily guaranteeing a better life quality though.

Interesting - do you say SG and EV are stronger choices due to their proximity to the WB shopping center? I would argue that the GP homes are just as close plus they sit along the 133 and you can backdoor it to the 5 via Marine Way. Or is it more about the home layouts? There?s some funky floor plans in GP which may exclude multi-gen families (we?ve had to cut out some places that had 3 stories).

The Sales Manager at Cadence Park told me there?s plans for a fitness chain + a few restaurant chains in the CP area over the next 12-18 months - not sure if she was pulling MY chain but it would make sense to have something in that area so the Pavilion Park peeps have some options as well. If that is the case, I can see CP getting a quick boost in value.

If GP retail included a Target and Whole Foods I can only imagine the insanity that would ensue.

I think SG and EV will have better appreciation because they are The Irvine Company products whereas GP is of FivePoint. Now that may sound a little odd, but let me explain.

I actually like the interior layouts from GP. They are more unique and up-to-date instead of cookie cutters like TIC homes. But those TIC homes will give you less Mello-Roos money out of your pocket each year. As you might already know, MR from GP homes are ridiculous and they rise 2% each year when TIC MR will get less and less each year. I see it as a pure marketing strategy and it's working so far (example: Cypress Village East).

As you pointed out, the distance to the retails is pretty much all the same. The difference comes when GP keeps promising things that can't be kept, but once TIC announces something, it WILL get done soon. I'm sure it's a political mess they are dealing with, but to us buyers, we like to see something more assuring and firm.

I wouldn't like to agree with this, but school ratings do matter in Irvine. Those TIC villages will get you into Northwood High School when GP residents are fed to Portola High. PH is great, so called state of the art facilities and so on. But for investors, higher academic gradings, the better option for them to park money on. Thus those homes fed to NH will be sold a lot quicker than others.

Lastly, there is environmental hazard reasons, but I won't get into that here. You can look up those from someone called YellowFever if you would like to, but according to him, you don't wanna live in GP. Although I like Pavilion Park.

Now all these are just for the investment purposes only since you brought that up in the original post. If you wanna talk about the living qualities, that's a whole another discussion, but if you want to see where the appreciation is at, I would suggest SG, EV or CV(E) more. But if you love GP, then you should buy there. I could be wrong, but I just don't see the retails being built there any time soon. Also I'm not so sure if now is a good time to buy so that's another discussion.

This is just a personal thing but I don't like the layout of GP in that it feel way way too spread out.  TIC stuff is cookie cutter from above but from the ground, they do a good job of mixing up the buildings, layout, and landscaping so that you are not overwhelmed by looking at like 100 or 200 homes.  Since everything is at eye-level, there is no sense of endless rows of homes. 

It is one of the issues I have with Portola Springs...when you come from the entry way and into the community...you basically get to see like 30 rows of homes.

I think retail will not hurt or harm BP and PP...it's just not see as a "proper" part of Irvine.  Maybe in 20 years it will be but right now...I feel like people see GP as its own city rather than part of Irvine.

 

[Mety]

I think all homes in Irvine will generally go up...GP included.  Question is whether such appreciation is better, equal to, or lower than other comparable areas. 

Historically, I think PP has not appreciated as well as Stonegate or EW but that's just on my fuzzy memory.  Not sure about BP.

We recently spent some time in the parks in BP and I have to say that the amenities are nice but the lay out is just weird....feels like you are on the edge of the frontier.

I also worry about noise and light pollution.

I actually thought kinda similar about the layout. I visited one of those GP parks since I thought it was all cool and hip, but I didn't like it much for they seemed to lack a little bit of greenery. I liked PS or WB amenities more. But it's just my opinion. Some people might've loved GP ones.

Appreciation wise, I also think Stongate and Eastwood are more assuring choices, not necessarily guaranteeing a better life quality though.

Interesting - do you say SG and EV are stronger choices due to their proximity to the WB shopping center? I would argue that the GP homes are just as close plus they sit along the 133 and you can backdoor it to the 5 via Marine Way. Or is it more about the home layouts? There?s some funky floor plans in GP which may exclude multi-gen families (we?ve had to cut out some places that had 3 stories).

The Sales Manager at Cadence Park told me there?s plans for a fitness chain + a few restaurant chains in the CP area over the next 12-18 months - not sure if she was pulling MY chain but it would make sense to have something in that area so the Pavilion Park peeps have some options as well. If that is the case, I can see CP getting a quick boost in value.

If GP retail included a Target and Whole Foods I can only imagine the insanity that would ensue.

I think SG and EV will have better appreciation because they are The Irvine Company products whereas GP is of FivePoint. Now that may sound a little odd, but let me explain.

I actually like the interior layouts from GP. They are more unique and up-to-date instead of cookie cutters like TIC homes. But those TIC homes will give you less Mello-Roos money out of your pocket each year. As you might already know, MR from GP homes are ridiculous and they rise 2% each year when TIC MR will get less and less each year. I see it as a pure marketing strategy and it's working so far (example: Cypress Village East).

As you pointed out, the distance to the retails is pretty much all the same. The difference comes when GP keeps promising things that can't be kept, but once TIC announces something, it WILL get done soon. I'm sure it's a political mess they are dealing with, but to us buyers, we like to see something more assuring and firm.

I wouldn't like to agree with this, but school ratings do matter in Irvine. Those TIC villages will get you into Northwood High School when GP residents are fed to Portola High. PH is great, so called state of the art facilities and so on. But for investors, higher academic gradings, the better option for them to park money on. Thus those homes fed to NH will be sold a lot quicker than others.

Lastly, there is environmental hazard reasons, but I won't get into that here. You can look up those from someone called YellowFever if you would like to, but according to him, you don't wanna live in GP. Although I like Pavilion Park.

Now all these are just for the investment purposes only since you brought that up in the original post. If you wanna talk about the living qualities, that's a whole another discussion, but if you want to see where the appreciation is at, I would suggest SG, EV or CV(E) more. But if you love GP, then you should buy there. I could be wrong, but I just don't see the retails being built there any time soon. Also I'm not so sure if now is a good time to buy so that's another discussion.

This is just a personal thing but I don't like the layout of GP in that it feel way way too spread out.  TIC stuff is cookie cutter from above but from the ground, they do a good job of mixing up the buildings, layout, and landscaping so that you are not overwhelmed by looking at like 100 or 200 homes.  Since everything is at eye-level, there is no sense of endless rows of homes. 

It is one of the issues I have with Portola Springs...when you come from the entry way and into the community...you basically get to see like 30 rows of homes.

I think retail will not hurt or harm BP and PP...it's just not see as a "proper" part of Irvine.  Maybe in 20 years it will be but right now...I feel like people see GP as its own city rather than part of Irvine.

I'm not exactly sure what you talking about and it possibly will open up another yard vs no yard type of argument, but yeah I agree TIC does a good job making things look good and natural.

 

[Kenkoko]

Two sales may not say for the whole community.

Ok, here's 4 more and basically tells the same tale. There's not a whole lot of resale activities since Greenwood is 2/3 years new.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/16-Windrow-Rd-92782/home/103690627#property-history
2016 1.30 mil bought
2018 1.56 mil sold
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/273-Downs-Rd-92782/home/112718688#property-history
2017 1.19 mil bought
2018 1.30 mil sold
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/206-Barnes-Rd-92782/home/101836703#property-history
2016 1.24 mil bought
2018 1.39 mil sold
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/15-Stafford-Pl-Tustin-CA-92782/236707603_zpid/
2017 1.48 mil bought
2018 1.65 mil sold

Greenwood is trading very similarly to Irvine.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

imo, greenwood (Crawford and Stafford specifically) will have a lot of problems as resales go. It needs a really big bull market to make money in those homes.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

cancel amazon prime.  that's your 2% right there.

Shots fired!!

It must be close to pay up your second property tax payment schedule. The 2% increase is peanuts  . If the heat is too much, don?t stay in the kitchen.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

imo, greenwood (Crawford and Stafford specifically) will have a lot of problems as resales go. It needs a really big bull market to make money in those homes.

Also...resaling new homes first time around is a lot easier.  People are okay with buying homes that are fairly newly and completed as compared to waiting for something to build in 6 months and then going through all the hassles of new homes.

It will be interesting to see what happens in 5 years. 

Columbus Grove/Tustin Fields are still hovering around $400/square foot...which is significantly less than most other Irvine neighborhoods. 

 

[paydawg]

imo, greenwood (Crawford and Stafford specifically) will have a lot of problems as resales go. It needs a really big bull market to make money in those homes.

Are these homes really zoned to Tustin High School?  How is that school?  It's rated a 7 on greatschools and I feel like the only school I can trust in TUSD is Beckman.  Do other people think differently? 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

imo, greenwood (Crawford and Stafford specifically) will have a lot of problems as resales go. It needs a really big bull market to make money in those homes.

This is why I referenced you because you know that area better than I do.

But Kenkoko's posts say that Greenwood is trading the same as Irvine... what problems do you feel are contrary to that (other than the Jamboree Super Highway )?

 

[Irvinecommuter]

imo, greenwood (Crawford and Stafford specifically) will have a lot of problems as resales go. It needs a really big bull market to make money in those homes.

Are these homes really zoned to Tustin High School?  How is that school?  It's rated a 7 on greatschools and I feel like the only school I can trust in TUSD is Beckman.  Do other people think differently?

I think it is right now but they are building a new school.  It's going to be a magnet school.
https://www.tustin.k12.ca.us/depart...es/maintenance-operations-facilities/projects

Interestingly...the people who designed the layout for Beacon Park are the same ones designing the layout for Greenwood.
http://naturallygreatdesign.com/portfolio/greenwood-at-tustin-legacy/

 

[Mety]

Tustin Legacy and Baker Ranch are doing a pretty good job with keeping up with Irvine trend. The homes are a lot more expensive than the rest of Tustin or Lake Forest. However, they are not Irvine. They will remain a different city, which is totally fine, but they will never have that Irvine premium to the fullest. The location wise though, TL is superior. One thing I would avoid is buying homes close to Jamboree, freeways, and the railroad.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Tustin Legacy and Baker Ranch are doing a pretty good job with keeping up with Irvine trend. The homes are a lot more expensive than the rest of Tustin or Lake Forest. However, they are not Irvine. They will remain a different city, which is totally fine, but they will never have that Irvine premium to the fullest. The location wise though, TL is superior. One thing I would avoid is buying homes close to Jamboree, freeways, and the railroad.

And the gravel/cement factory!

 

[Since89]

And a prison

 

[Kenkoko]

imo, greenwood (Crawford and Stafford specifically) will have a lot of problems as resales go. It needs a really big bull market to make money in those homes.

I agree on Crawford. I think not having a driveway in the 1.5 mil price range will be a big turnoff for a lot of potential buyers.

I am more optimistic on Stafford however. I think Stafford have some of the best floor plans I've seen in the last few years. ( I've seen a lot too)

The biggest surprise in Greenwood to me has been Huntley. Most of these backs up to Jamboree and were sold for 900s. So far the few Huntley resale has been over 1.2 mil.

 

[Kenkoko]

But Kenkoko's posts say that Greenwood is trading the same as Irvine... what problems do you feel are contrary to that (other than the Jamboree Super Highway )?

It's not just my opinion. Numbers don't lie.
Go ahead and compare Greenwood resale homes to 2/3 year old resale homes in GP or anywhere else in Irvine. They are shockingly similar.

 

[ThirtySomethingWEquity]

imo, greenwood (Crawford and Stafford specifically) will have a lot of problems as resales go. It needs a really big bull market to make money in those homes.

I agree on Crawford. I think not having a driveway in the 1.5 mil price range will be a big turnoff for a lot of potential buyers.

I am more optimistic on Stafford however. I think Stafford have some of the best floor plans I've seen in the last few years. ( I've seen a lot too)

The biggest surprise in Greenwood to me has been Huntley. Most of these backs up to Jamboree and were sold for 900s. So far the few Huntley resale has been over 1.2 mil.

Sold for 900s or that was the starting price?  Because if you add in options + landscaping + transaction costs, that's not a great return at all.

 

[Kenkoko]

Sold for 900s or that was the starting price?  Because if you add in options + landscaping + transaction costs, that's not a great return at all.

The starting price was high 800s to low 900s for Huntley. It was the final sold price. Options were already included. Only backyard landscaping was not. Judging from the pictures, it wouldn't be more than 50k. Even with a 6% commission cost, it's still not a bad return for 18 months.

Nov 7, 2016 
Bought for  $952,000
Apr 27, 2018 
Sold for $1,215,000  https://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/305-Barnes-Rd-92782/home/108306879#property-history

 

[IHS3000]

About three months ago, the OC Business Journal, published a interview of Emile Haddad, CEO of Fivepoint. The OC Business Journal asked Haddad about homes on top of business developments (Base Camp or The Village - European style).  Haddad stated they are still in talks with the city and he hoped to start (construction) in 2020.
http://www.ocbj.com/news/2018/sep/24/what-will-irvine-look-20-years/

Note: a paid subscription is required to read the entire OCBJ article.
https://fivepoint.com/elements/commercial.html

 

[moc]

Have there been any updates on Warehouse 415 by Cadence Park? Everything I've seen has been about the "Base Camp" retail center that's  referenced in the posts above. But - nothing on the "food hall and community space" in Warehouse 415 since 2017ish.