Government Shutdown

[qwerty]

I don?t think fortune11 has been around very long but has quickly moved up list of favorite members. I?ve even made some money off has statements (I?ve made some money of off morekoas suggestions as well).

Don?t worry IHO, you will always be my favorite

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I like fortune11 too, but he/she does get riled up when it comes to politics (which I will never understand... we are all one country right?). His/her finance/economics advice is great... but it's almost like 2 different people when he's dealing with certain members.

Political opinions are so rife with false facts, emotions, etc that it's really tough to say who is in the "right" here... there are wrongs on both sides. I just don't like it when it becomes personal and they start insulting one's profession, ethnicity, intelligence, family or whatever... and when there is name calling and swearing, that's when you know it's gone beyond a simple discussion.

I guess some posters just bring out the Hyde in all of us Jekylls.

Maybe I'll revive some threads about God and religion and see what happens.

(that's why you and I just talk about burgers... not much contention there)

 

[bones]

I?m a big fortune fan too. Sometimes i?ll just read his replies on back and forth threads.  From there, I get the gist.

 

[bones]

Don?t worry IHO, you will always be my favorite

where's the downvote button?

 

[qwerty]

Don?t worry IHO, you will always be my favorite

where's the downvote button?

I meant on the man side. 

You will always be my girl favorite

 

[Kings]

And the ?growth story? played out exactly like I predicted - notwithstanding wall to wall MAGA posts last year on this forum

If you dump a massive deficit spending package AND a Yuge corporate tax cut on Obama's 2% economy and only get a one year bump to 3%, you can blame whomever you want, but your supply-side, trickle down, country club repatriation investment theory was dead f___ wrong

3% gdp is 50% higher than 2%! great success!

And what is it now , genius ?

greater than any democrat president...why? because we don't have one  ;D

As usual , you don?t know jack s__t

First quarter is tracking well below 1 percent ... and the estimates for second quarter aren?t great either

Under Obama it averaged 2 percent and hit as high as 4 percent multiple times (4 times) .

My point is ? NOTHING HAS CHANGED

remind me again, who doesn't know shit?

US economy grows by 3.2% in the first quarter, topping expectations

The U.S. economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the first quarter and posted its best growth to start a year in four years.

First-quarter GDP expanded by 3.2% in the first quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its initial read of the economy for that period. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the U.S. economy increased by 2.5% in the first quarter. It was the first time since 2015 that first-quarter GDP topped 3%.

?The upside beat was helped by net trade (exports jumped while imports contracted sharply) and inventories which combined contributed almost 170 bps of the rise,? wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. ?Personal spending though, the biggest component was up just 1.2%, two tenths more than expected as an increase in spending on services and nondurable goods offset a decline in spending on durable goods.?

Exports rose 3.7% in the first quarter, while imports decreased by 3.7%. Economic growth also got a lift from strong investments in intellectual property products. Those investments expanded by 8.6%.

Disposable personal income increased by 3%, while prices increased by 1.3% when excluding food and energy. Overall prices climbed by 0.8% in the first quarter. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/26/gdp-q1-2019-first-read.html

 

[fortune11]

Dunderhead  (@kings) ? I posted yesterday in the housing thread , BEFORE THIS GDP DATA CAME OUT  ? that March activity was a lot better than expectations and that we should be back above 2 percent . 

And we were . Todays number will likely be revised to  a 2 -handle eventually in their subsequent revisions.

What have you contributed to this forum except ?gotchas? ?
: )

 

[Kings]

Dunderhead  (@kings) ? I posted yesterday in the housing thread , BEFORE THIS GDP DATA CAME OUT  ? that March activity was a lot better than expectations and that we should be back above 2 percent . 

And we were . Todays number will likely be revised to  a 2 -handle eventually in their subsequent revisions.

What have you contributed to this forum except ?gotchas? ?
: )

you mean after analysts had already predicted 2.5%?  you love to bash financial advisers all the time because they make backward looking statements, but can't take the heat when your predictions are dead wrong.  it's okay to admit you were wrong sometimes 

 

[fortune11]

Dunderhead  (@kings) ? I posted yesterday in the housing thread , BEFORE THIS GDP DATA CAME OUT  ? that March activity was a lot better than expectations and that we should be back above 2 percent . 

And we were . Todays number will likely be revised to  a 2 -handle eventually in their subsequent revisions.

What have you contributed to this forum except ?gotchas? ?
: )

you mean after analysts had already predicted 2.5%?  you love to bash financial advisers all the time because they make backward looking statements, but can't take the heat when your predictions are dead wrong.  it's okay to admit you were wrong sometimes 

Do you know that it was 2.5 percent for the last six months ??  Even when data was showing a near recession in late Jan ? 

This is why if you actually pay attention  ? the stock market is the best economic forecaster out there

Otherwise even a stopped clock is right twice a day ...

But the broader message which i have been trying to hammer home is nothing has changed - we were at 2 handle growth before trump and after trump .

 

[Kings]

Dunderhead  (@kings) ? I posted yesterday in the housing thread , BEFORE THIS GDP DATA CAME OUT  ? that March activity was a lot better than expectations and that we should be back above 2 percent . 

And we were . Todays number will likely be revised to  a 2 -handle eventually in their subsequent revisions.

What have you contributed to this forum except ?gotchas? ?
: )

you mean after analysts had already predicted 2.5%?  you love to bash financial advisers all the time because they make backward looking statements, but can't take the heat when your predictions are dead wrong.  it's okay to admit you were wrong sometimes 

Do you know that it was 2.5 percent for the last six months ??  Even when data was showing a near recession in late Jan ? 

This is why if you actually pay attention  ? the stock market is the best economic forecaster out there

Otherwise even a stopped clock is right twice a day ...

But the broader message which i have been trying to hammer home is nothing has changed - we were at 2 handle growth before trump and after trump .

then why post about "less than 1%" gdp if you "knew" it was tracking 2.5% for 6 months?  as far as i'm concerned, your clock wasn't right at all on this timetable

 

[fortune11]

Dunderhead  (@kings) ? I posted yesterday in the housing thread , BEFORE THIS GDP DATA CAME OUT  ? that March activity was a lot better than expectations and that we should be back above 2 percent . 

And we were . Todays number will likely be revised to  a 2 -handle eventually in their subsequent revisions.

What have you contributed to this forum except ?gotchas? ?
: )

you mean after analysts had already predicted 2.5%?  you love to bash financial advisers all the time because they make backward looking statements, but can't take the heat when your predictions are dead wrong.  it's okay to admit you were wrong sometimes 

Do you know that it was 2.5 percent for the last six months ??  Even when data was showing a near recession in late Jan ? 

This is why if you actually pay attention  ? the stock market is the best economic forecaster out there

Otherwise even a stopped clock is right twice a day ...

But the broader message which i have been trying to hammer home is nothing has changed - we were at 2 handle growth before trump and after trump .

then why post about "less than 1%" gdp if you "knew" it was tracking 2.5% for 6 months?  as far as i'm concerned, your clock wasn't right at all on this timetable

You know it is exhausting dealing w people who don?t understand basic math

How can a 6 month old forecast be ?tracking ? anything ?  Tracking means adjusting forecasts based on current level of activity - which dipped meaningfully in Jan and early Feb before rebounding in March .

And that March is pull ahead of some inventory and trade from q2 - which is why it will mean revert .

2 percent handle is there to stay with us is the moral of the story

 

[Kings]

Dunderhead  (@kings) ? I posted yesterday in the housing thread , BEFORE THIS GDP DATA CAME OUT  ? that March activity was a lot better than expectations and that we should be back above 2 percent . 

And we were . Todays number will likely be revised to  a 2 -handle eventually in their subsequent revisions.

What have you contributed to this forum except ?gotchas? ?
: )

you mean after analysts had already predicted 2.5%?  you love to bash financial advisers all the time because they make backward looking statements, but can't take the heat when your predictions are dead wrong.  it's okay to admit you were wrong sometimes 

Do you know that it was 2.5 percent for the last six months ??  Even when data was showing a near recession in late Jan ? 

This is why if you actually pay attention  ? the stock market is the best economic forecaster out there

Otherwise even a stopped clock is right twice a day ...

But the broader message which i have been trying to hammer home is nothing has changed - we were at 2 handle growth before trump and after trump .

then why post about "less than 1%" gdp if you "knew" it was tracking 2.5% for 6 months?  as far as i'm concerned, your clock wasn't right at all on this timetable

You know it is exhausting dealing w people who don?t understand basic math

How can a 6 month old forecast be ?tracking ? anything ?  Tracking means adjusting forecasts based on current level of activity - which dipped meaningfully in Jan and early Feb before rebounding in March .

And that March is pull ahead of some inventory and trade from q2 - which is why it will mean revert .

2 percent handle is there to stay with us is the moral of the story

in reference to gdp, you said, "Do you know that it was 2.5 percent for the last six months ??" 

i don't need you to insult me by saying i don't understand basic math when i could just as easily insult you for not understanding basic english.  my original point still stands, in that at the end of q1 (march 27) you said gdp would be less than 1%.  now, if you can show me that in 3 days before the end of the quarter that inventory and trade pulled gdp up by 3000% (feel free to do your own math here), then i will gladly admit where i am at fault.

 

[fortune11]

Dunderhead  (@kings) ? I posted yesterday in the housing thread , BEFORE THIS GDP DATA CAME OUT  ? that March activity was a lot better than expectations and that we should be back above 2 percent . 

And we were . Todays number will likely be revised to  a 2 -handle eventually in their subsequent revisions.

What have you contributed to this forum except ?gotchas? ?
: )

you mean after analysts had already predicted 2.5%?  you love to bash financial advisers all the time because they make backward looking statements, but can't take the heat when your predictions are dead wrong.  it's okay to admit you were wrong sometimes 

Do you know that it was 2.5 percent for the last six months ??  Even when data was showing a near recession in late Jan ? 

This is why if you actually pay attention  ? the stock market is the best economic forecaster out there

Otherwise even a stopped clock is right twice a day ...

But the broader message which i have been trying to hammer home is nothing has changed - we were at 2 handle growth before trump and after trump .

then why post about "less than 1%" gdp if you "knew" it was tracking 2.5% for 6 months?  as far as i'm concerned, your clock wasn't right at all on this timetable

You know it is exhausting dealing w people who don?t understand basic math

How can a 6 month old forecast be ?tracking ? anything ?  Tracking means adjusting forecasts based on current level of activity - which dipped meaningfully in Jan and early Feb before rebounding in March .

And that March is pull ahead of some inventory and trade from q2 - which is why it will mean revert .

2 percent handle is there to stay with us is the moral of the story

in reference to gdp, you said, "Do you know that it was 2.5 percent for the last six months ??" 

i don't need you to insult me by saying i don't understand basic math when i could just as easily insult you for not understanding basic english.  my original point still stands, in that at the end of q1 (march 27) you said gdp would be less than 1%.  now, if you can show me that in 3 days before the end of the quarter that inventory and trade pulled gdp up by 3000% (feel free to do your own math here), then i will gladly admit where i am at fault.

Those forecasts are stale is what 6 months means

And data is released monthly so what I said in March was referring to data as of end of Feb

Now since you are so concerned about ?civility ? ? if you had a genuine interest in understanding all this you could simply have asked me a question . I myself ask questions to other domain experts when I don?t know about the subject . 

But no, you wanted the theatrics of one -upping me and playing ?gotcha? ,  so this is the blunt treatment you get back in return.  Don?t cry , you wil be alright

If you are really interested , I can explain why this number is 3.2 and why it will be revised lower and why q2 will also be 2- handle . And why this has absolutely no bearing on stocks today...

 

[morekaos]

On the "civility" note you need to understand that "dunderheads" and "hacks" are just simple cavemen...your modern world frightens us. >

 

[morekaos]

Dunderhead  (@kings) ? I posted yesterday in the housing thread , BEFORE THIS GDP DATA CAME OUT  ? that March activity was a lot better than expectations and that we should be back above 2 percent . 

And we were . Todays number will likely be revised to  a 2 -handle eventually in their subsequent revisions.

What have you contributed to this forum except ?gotchas? ?
: )

First-quarter economic growth up 3.1%, slightly better than Wall Street expected

In the bigger picture, growth easily surpassed what most economists had been expecting at the start of the year. At one point, the Atlanta Federal Reserve was estimating GDP to rise just 0.2%. Strong contributions from real gross domestic income helped drive the better numbers, as did a rise in exports, state and local government spending and nonresidential fixed investment.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/30/gdp-q1-2019-second-reading.html


So, I guess that's a "revision down", a two handle? ....and then?
https://youtu.be/CkdyU_eUm1U

https://youtu.be/CkdyU_eUm1U

 

[Kings]

hey fortune, i got something for ya