Gold

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PANDA said:
usctrojanman29 said:
CalGal said:
awgee said:
Optimus - I will bet you a cup of coffee that within two years spot gold will be $1200 or better in USD.
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Awgee, is there any reason why gold is dropping right now?

I'm not being facetious or disrespectful; I'm just trying to understand.

I usually don't deal with commodities - my heart can't take the ups and downs. :coolsmirk:
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Basically for two reasons....strong US dollar and decreasing global inflation from commodity prices dropping.
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USC, what in your opinion is causing the U.S. dollar to rally and how long do you think it will last? long term (1 - 3 + years) or short term (less than 3 months) I have some theories as to what is causing this dollar rally but i am not 100% sure myself. Weren't foreign banks involved in buying up our dollars? If you have a good fundamental explanation behind, I would love to hear it. Are you also implying that the U.S. equity market will rally and be fully recovered before end of the year?

Panda
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The US was the first one to slow down while everyone thought that the other parts of the world would be immune to a US slowdown...so much for that thinking. haha The reality is that the US will be the first to exit the slowdown while the rest of the world catches up so there are expectations beginning to build that other central banks will be cutting rates which is bullish for the US dollar. I could also be a flight to safety (i.e. where investors feel that the US dollar is less risky than other currencies). Those are my best guestimates why the US dollar has been rallying.
 
PANDA said:
CalGal said:
PANDA said:
usctrojanman29 said:
CalGal said:
awgee said:
Optimus - I will bet you a cup of coffee that within two years spot gold will be $1200 or better in USD.
Click to expand...
Awgee, is there any reason why gold is dropping right now?

I'm not being facetious or disrespectful; I'm just trying to understand.

I usually don't deal with commodities - my heart can't take the ups and downs. :coolsmirk:
Click to expand...
Basically for two reasons....strong US dollar and decreasing global inflation from commodity prices dropping.
Click to expand...

USC, what in your opinion is causing the U.S. dollar to be strong and how long do you think it will last? long term (1 - 3 + years) or short term (less than 3 months) I have some theories as to what is causing this dollar rally but i am not 100% sure myself. If you have a good fundamental explanation behind, I would love to hear it. Are you also implying that the U.S. equity market will rally and be fully recovered before end of the year?

Panda
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Panda, what's your theory. I'm curious as to your thinking.
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CalGal,

For one thing i don't think that the dollar rally is happening naturally, but there has been some intervention among the banks. I read an article somewhere where the Japanese Bank coordinated with the U.S. to buy up our dollars. I really haven't found any solid fundamental reasoning myself as to why dollar is rallying which is the reason i am asking this question. Perhaps the dollar needed to be strong to bail out Freddie and Fannie and futures banks that will go under.

Perhaps the U.S. needs the dollar to be strong before the election. We are trillions of dollars in debt and somehow i feel that our government is putting Band-Aids and stitches to the damaged head where the tumor inside the brain is growing. I am not just speaking from my personal investments in precious metals, but something doesn't feel quite right. I feel that the U.S. economy is this house of cards ready to crash, and our government is running out of weapons. Our government cannot save and bail out every bank that is going under.

CalGal, I would really like to hear the prospective of some of the dollar bulls as I have made many mistakes in past and i am not ashamed of admitting it.
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Panda, My husband is in the financial industry. He lives, sleeps and golfs finance. %-P If I think of it, I'll ask him what his thoughts are on this topic. He would know better than I. I do know that he sold his gold a few months ago.
 
I am confused why Gold Bugs always tout the Deficit as a signal of rising inflation. As a percent of GDP, total outstanding Federal debt as a percentage of GDP is now lower than the peak levels of the 90s, and just about in line with the long term average of roughly 35%.
 
awgee - I will take that bet too. You might be buying a lot of coffee, or you might be amped up like crazy from all that coffee.

Panda - The dollar over shoots on the down side and on the upside. Always has and always will. It also starts to return to the upside or downside before most fundamentals say it should, er I guess it fundamentally changes before, so in a sense it is a fundamental now. You see the dollar was going down because our economy was going to crap, and other economies were still growing. Now, the other economies are starting to turn to crap, and ours is stagnating crap. But, the upside is always before the real bottom. Are we at the real bottom yet? I dunno for sure, but I don't think so. However, I do think the dollar is poised to only go up. Why? The fundamentals are there and say so, you just are not looking at the right fundamentals.

http://img701.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/09/10/dxy-4btlm9omn.jpeg

Check your PMs in a bit. I have set up the Panda Challenge that will begin on Monday. I know CalGal is in. Awgee, are you in? Anyone else think they can beat Panda when it comes to investing? PM me and I will invite you to the Panda Challenge.
 
graphrix said:
awgee - I will take that bet too. You might be buying a lot of coffee, or you might be amped up like crazy from all that coffee.

Panda - The dollar over shoots on the down side and on the upside. Always has and always will. It also starts to return to the upside or downside before most fundamentals say it should, er I guess it fundamentally changes before, so in a sense it is a fundamental now. You see the dollar was going down because our economy was going to crap, and other economies were still growing. Now, the other economies are starting to turn to crap, and ours is stagnating crap. But, the upside is always before the real bottom. Are we at the real bottom yet? I dunno for sure, but I don't think so. However, I do think the dollar is poised to only go up. Why? The fundamentals are there and say so, you just are not looking at the right fundamentals.

http://img701.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/09/10/dxy-4btlm9omn.jpeg

Check your PMs in a bit. I have set up the Panda Challenge that will begin on Monday. I know CalGal is in. Awgee, are you in? Anyone else think they can beat Panda when it comes to investing? PM me and I will invite you to the Panda Challenge.
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Dude, Graph you would totally Whoop Panda's butt in this game. You are like a professional day trader who knows all the ins and outs of the stock trading tricks. I mean I have never shorted, called, put, or bought stocks on margins before. I kinda buy stocks and ETFs i like and sit on it for couple years.

Graphcakes, have a heart.... Do you really want to see Panda naked at the Panda's Challenge?

I was wondering, can i just watch and not participate in the Panda's Challenge?

Oops, I just used up my two questions for the week.
 
Dude, Graph you would totally Whoop Panda’s butt in this game. You are like a professional day trader who knows all the ins and outs of the stock trading tricks. I mean I have never shorted, called, put, or bought stocks on margins before. I kinda buy stocks and ETFs i like and sit on it for couple years.

Graphcakes, have a heart.... Do you really want to see Panda naked at the Panda’s Challenge?

I was wondering, can i just watch and not participate in the Panda’s Challenge?

Oops, I just used up my two questions for the week.
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Come on, Panda. It will be fun. I have never shorted, called, put, or bought stocks on margin before either. It will be a learning experience with play money. Wouldn't it be better to play in the stock market with play money than your own hard-earned money.

I'll probably be a lot riskier with play money and lose it all in a month anyway.

It's just a game. Don't take your ball and go home before the kids even come out and play. :lol:
 
CalGal is right. It is just for fun and it will be learning experience for us all. You just invest the way that you would normally invest. Maybe even try some new and risky things.

My game plan was to do some of the opposite of what you are doing, like going long on DXY. I might throw in some short term trades here and there, but the goal is to see where we are at the end of the year. There is no end to the game, so we can keep it going as long as we would like. Plus, not all my trades are great, and you never know I could go on a serious cold streak.

It will be fun, I promise. And... I never want to see you naked... ever.
 
Cool... sounds like fun. I login in tomorrow. Have you ever seen a Panda with clothes on? I haven't, have you?

Calgal, I thought that you would find this post interesting to a response i received as to why we have seen the dollar rally. Awgee, what do you think?

I think gold will continue to correct to the mid 600s. The press of the upward dollar was initiated by European Central Banks lowering interest rates instead of raising to fight inflation as was predicted. Knowing that in itself was insufficient to solve the problem, they begain buying dollars and converting them to US Treasuries to bolster the dollar and devalue the Euro, thus making their exports competetive with US exports, hoping that would spur their GNP.

Then along came the Government, bailing out Fannie/Freddie and guaranting the underlying bonds. Now foreign interests who lost a bundle on the common and preferred, have confidence that their bonds, both future and present, are safe investments, further bolstering the dollar.

Long term, hyperinflation in any recovery will ensue through the enormous debt funded by the printed Fiat Dollar, but for now gold cannot be viewed as a currency of haven, and will correct more. If a rally is in store, it will come from pented demand from China and India shortly, if their consumers continue as they have in the past with seasonal jewelry buying.

This might help gold rally to where it is now, but for until a more favorable market, I got out today and went mildly short on gold, financials, the long-term bond as a hedge, and a few long position in agra stocks.

I think short financials is probably going to represent a big payoff; as for the rest, I just know in this crazy market. I would also pick your favorite airline as a beneficiary of falling oil prices.
 
PANDA said:
Cool... sounds like fun. I login in tomorrow. Have you ever seen a Panda with clothes on? I haven't, have you?

Calgal, I thought that you would find this post interesting to a response i received as to why we have seen the dollar rally. Awgee, what do you think?

I think gold will continue to correct to the mid 600s. The press of the upward dollar was initiated by European Central Banks lowering interest rates instead of raising to fight inflation as was predicted. Knowing that in itself was insufficient to solve the problem, they begain buying dollars and converting them to US Treasuries to bolster the dollar and devalue the Euro, thus making their exports competetive with US exports, hoping that would spur their GNP.

Then along came the Government, bailing out Fannie/Freddie and guaranting the underlying bonds. Now foreign interests who lost a bundle on the common and preferred, have confidence that their bonds, both future and present, are safe investments, further bolstering the dollar.

Long term, hyperinflation in any recovery will ensue through the enormous debt funded by the printed Fiat Dollar, but for now gold cannot be viewed as a currency of haven, and will correct more. If a rally is in store, it will come from pented demand from China and India shortly, if their consumers continue as they have in the past with seasonal jewelry buying.

This might help gold rally to where it is now, but for until a more favorable market, I got out today and went mildly short on gold, financials, the long-term bond as a hedge, and a few long position in agra stocks.

I think short financials is probably going to represent a big payoff; as for the rest, I just know in this crazy market. I would also pick your favorite airline as a beneficiary of falling oil prices.
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Did you sell your current gold for a loss and then shorted additional shares?
 
CalGal said:
PANDA said:
Cool... sounds like fun. I login in tomorrow. Have you ever seen a Panda with clothes on? I haven't, have you?

Calgal, I thought that you would find this post interesting to a response i received as to why we have seen the dollar rally. Awgee, what do you think?

I think gold will continue to correct to the mid 600s. The press of the upward dollar was initiated by European Central Banks lowering interest rates instead of raising to fight inflation as was predicted. Knowing that in itself was insufficient to solve the problem, they begain buying dollars and converting them to US Treasuries to bolster the dollar and devalue the Euro, thus making their exports competetive with US exports, hoping that would spur their GNP.

Then along came the Government, bailing out Fannie/Freddie and guaranting the underlying bonds. Now foreign interests who lost a bundle on the common and preferred, have confidence that their bonds, both future and present, are safe investments, further bolstering the dollar.

Long term, hyperinflation in any recovery will ensue through the enormous debt funded by the printed Fiat Dollar, but for now gold cannot be viewed as a currency of haven, and will correct more. If a rally is in store, it will come from pented demand from China and India shortly, if their consumers continue as they have in the past with seasonal jewelry buying.

This might help gold rally to where it is now, but for until a more favorable market, I got out today and went mildly short on gold, financials, the long-term bond as a hedge, and a few long position in agra stocks.

I think short financials is probably going to represent a big payoff; as for the rest, I just know in this crazy market. I would also pick your favorite airline as a beneficiary of falling oil prices.
Click to expand...
Did you sell your current gold for a loss and then shorted additional shares?
Click to expand...

LOL!,

You thought i wrote that article? I don't have a clue how to short anything. Also Awgee would kill me if i predicted that gold will get down to the mid 600 level. I just copied and pasted an article written by someone who seems to know a lot about the gold and its relation to the dollar. Tomorrow will be an interesting day to watch if the dollar jumps over the 80 threshold, then gold prices will tank further.

Alright!, I am ready to make some serious Dineros $$$ on the Panda Challenge!!! I am going to short the hell out of the U.S.
 
I'm down to around a 4% allocation in gold, which is down from a gigantic leveraged 10X position I had earlier. Fortunately got most of that position unwound before the bulk of the gold crash.

Still, fighting a 20% downtrend is not fun. Enough knife catching for me. I'll see what I'll do with the remaining 4% though at that point it doesn't matter much overall to the porftolio even if gold gets slashed in half.

If hedge funds are deleveraging in all assets, then no amount of fundamentals will make these metals go up. I'm still watching them since it "should" be the strong season for them but the tide against them is strong.

Good luck and keep safe!
 
awgee said:
graphrix said:
You just invest the way that you would normally invest. Maybe even try some new and risky things.
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I'm in, but since this is play money, I am trading, not investing. How much do we get to start with?

CalGal, I think everything after the first sentence or two in Panda's last post is an article written by someone else, not Panda. He was asking what you thought of the article, I think.

Optimus, Trojman, Capworks, IR, bix, no vas, et al., are you in?
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Check your PMs, you have directions on how to start and how much you get, $100k. BTW, I will prolly be trading too. It will be too hard for me to just sit there and all with my ADD. Just don't be writing naked put options on Lehman, you don't want to make the same mistake that so many did on Bear Stearns.
 
Trooper said:
This sounds like it'll be fun to watch. Please post your trades publicly so we can all see how it works out !
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Troop, why don't you play the Panda Challenge with us. I'll probably be going a lot riskier in my play, so I'll probably lose the $100k in a week. :) It will be fun to learn - margins, shorts, etc.
 
graphrix said:
awgee said:
graphrix said:
You just invest the way that you would normally invest. Maybe even try some new and risky things.
Click to expand...

I'm in, but since this is play money, I am trading, not investing. How much do we get to start with?

CalGal, I think everything after the first sentence or two in Panda's last post is an article written by someone else, not Panda. He was asking what you thought of the article, I think.

Optimus, Trojman, Capworks, IR, bix, no vas, et al., are you in?
Click to expand...

Check your PMs, you have directions on how to start and how much you get, $100k. BTW, I will prolly be trading too. It will be too hard for me to just sit there and all with my ADD. Just don't be writing naked put options on Lehman, you don't want to make the same mistake that so many did on Bear Stearns.
Click to expand...

I’d like to compete in the Challenge as well.

Could you post or pm me the details so I can join.

My first pick will be TRLG, which continues to stand strong in a tough/hostile retail environment
 
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