ABC123_IHB
New member
For all of you gold experts out there, I purchased some shares of a gold mutual fund in my IRA account and it has increased 40% in less than a year. Is now a good time to sell or is gold going to continue to rise?
Gold
- Thread starter ABC123_IHB
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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Nude and Awgee, I current hold a good chunk of my cash in Canadian Dollars and Euros. Do you guys recommend that I convert all of this into Gold. Foreign Cash just seems like a safer investment to me as the price does not fluctuate so much like Gold and Silver. Again, I can be completely wrong.
What's your opinion in carrying silver?
Panda
Before we go any further, let's examine the underlying issues. Either you have so much money saved up that a rapid change in relative valuation of either the dollar, the euro, or the loonie is going to drastically change your net worth or you are trying to provide yourself something to use as money when the world economy collapses.
If the kind of price swings that occur in the currency exchange markets are really going to make a difference in your bottom line, then you need to get your money back into whatever currency you use where you live because you don't make enough money to be playing in that arena. If the loonie goes back to the exchange rate of 2004, you are going to lose a lot of cash. Same with the Euro. If a rapid change won't make a difference then quit worrying about it. Split up your cash equally among countries you might like to spend a few years visiting if things get wierd at home and keep it there until we get past all of this drama.
If you are trying to horde some metal to survive a sudden financial meltdown, you had better be able to fly your own plan to Geneva if you want to get your gold because you won't be able to pay for an airline ticket with funny money. If it's just a hedge against inflation, fine. But if you really think the government is going to outlaw gold ownership again then you had better have a plan to get to it, already in place and already paid for because credit cards and portraits of dead presidents may not be enough. Not to Godwin the thread, but look back at all the Swiss accounts held by German Jews prior to Hitler invading Poland; thousands of them went unclaimed because the owners COULD NOT GET to them. My gold and cash is in a safe hidden in my house with a nasty alarm and some other nearly fatal surprises for those who snoop for it. If it gets to the point that gold becomes the only money, the government won't have a chance to confiscate it because neither it nor I will be here. Call me paranoid, sure, but what good is a back-up plan when you can't execute it?
If you are just trying to avoid inflation eating away at your money, buy some TIPS from the Treasury. We have some of them, and some other investments that keep us from worrying too much. There is only so much you can prepare for, only so much you can worry about, and the truth is that if we do get to that point, we have far more important things to worry about than how rich we are. For example, when was the last time you butchered a cow, harvested corn, refined crude oil, tended to an orchard, or built a windmill? We, as a country, are so dependent on grocery stores, gas stations, electricity, and indoor plumbing that we, as human beings, are going to be in a world of hurt if that all goes away.
I can't recommend an investment strategy because I'm always wrong and I don't want my ineptitude to hurt anyone. I recommend that you write out your needs, find ways to ensure continued access to them, and then follow through with preparation so that you can execute the plan when the time comes. Visualize each step and look for possible problems and solutions to those problems. Then double check everything and hope for the best.
C'mon Graph, we are not investing in the 80's or the 90's. I read this book many years ago right out of college, it is a great book for investing in the era of Peter Lynch, but it does not teach you how to invest from 2000 - 2020. The game is very different this time around.
PANDA DREAMING OF IRVINE_IHB
New member
...
lawyerliz_IHB
New member
awgee? awgee? anyone? anyone?
I bought a couple of gold coins & have a couple of 100oz silver bars.
As far as I can see, what you are dealing with is luck, given that
the stock market is being brazenly manipulated. But then it probably
always has been.
I think that the mkt is due for a steep drop, and gold to go up, but I
can't see gold going to 5 grand, or the mkt dropping to 5000. 30% off
is my signal to buy back into the stock mkt. From peak that is which
was about 14,400. So about 9000 or so. So I am just sitting back and
waiting.
I bought a couple of gold coins & have a couple of 100oz silver bars.
As far as I can see, what you are dealing with is luck, given that
the stock market is being brazenly manipulated. But then it probably
always has been.
I think that the mkt is due for a steep drop, and gold to go up, but I
can't see gold going to 5 grand, or the mkt dropping to 5000. 30% off
is my signal to buy back into the stock mkt. From peak that is which
was about 14,400. So about 9000 or so. So I am just sitting back and
waiting.
upperlowerclass_IHB
New member
Now is a great time to buy gold. Oil/gold ratio looks good for a short term raise in gold as well as all the inflationary pressure that looks to have no end in sight.
Liz,
I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for the market to hit 9000. Look at what happened recently every time the market tried to dip under 12k, the FED steps in frantically pumping up a balloon with a bunch of holes in it. If you want to see your 30% off or more value simply price the market in a stable currency (say, gold). For the rest of the year I'd expect to see 12k-13k oscillation.
Keep you gold atleast through this year, enjoy outperforming the market
Liz,
I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for the market to hit 9000. Look at what happened recently every time the market tried to dip under 12k, the FED steps in frantically pumping up a balloon with a bunch of holes in it. If you want to see your 30% off or more value simply price the market in a stable currency (say, gold). For the rest of the year I'd expect to see 12k-13k oscillation.
Keep you gold atleast through this year, enjoy outperforming the market
PANDA_IHB
New member
This guy doesn't know what he is talking about. Probably some air head 30 year old rookie. When in doubt, I generally look up to the older Americans for advice who's been through the ups and down of our economy. This what the olders Americans are saying.
"We face a 75% chance of a financial crisis within 5 years" - Paul Volcker, former chairman of federal reserve
"The U.S. does not have more than a 10% chance of avoiding Economic Armageddon." - Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley
"We are confronting a day of serious reckoning" - Robert E. Rubin, former Secretary of the Treasury
"Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money, in extremis, is acceptable by nobody. Gold is always accepted." - Alan Greenspan
How big is our problem? $74,000,000,000,000.00! That is $74 Trillion dollars!
When in doubt and when every place to invest is tanking, When you cannot trust Bernanke or the U.S. Government, Americans will turn to Gold. This Panda knows!!!
"We face a 75% chance of a financial crisis within 5 years" - Paul Volcker, former chairman of federal reserve
"The U.S. does not have more than a 10% chance of avoiding Economic Armageddon." - Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley
"We are confronting a day of serious reckoning" - Robert E. Rubin, former Secretary of the Treasury
"Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money, in extremis, is acceptable by nobody. Gold is always accepted." - Alan Greenspan
How big is our problem? $74,000,000,000,000.00! That is $74 Trillion dollars!
When in doubt and when every place to invest is tanking, When you cannot trust Bernanke or the U.S. Government, Americans will turn to Gold. This Panda knows!!!
CapitalismWorks_IHB
New member
Gold produces no income, and costs money to store. Unless you are holding physical gold in inventory in your own safe, it is very likely in the event of a complete financial collapse that electronic record of your ownership of some gold will be worth as much as the paper its not printed on!
"It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head." Buffet on Gold during a 1998 presentation at Harvard.
"It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head." Buffet on Gold during a 1998 presentation at Harvard.
PANDA_IHB
New member
Awgee and Nude,
Do you feel the same way regarding foreign curriencies like Euro, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, Norwegian Krone. Swedish Krona, and the British Pound and you so do with precious metals. My one concern with foreign currencies is that the foreign governments can also print their currency just like we do with the dollar. Do you guys feel that precious metals is a safer place to put your money than foreign currencies when the world recession begins? What do you guys think about Silver? Is it under valued compared to Gold?
Do you feel the same way regarding foreign curriencies like Euro, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, Norwegian Krone. Swedish Krona, and the British Pound and you so do with precious metals. My one concern with foreign currencies is that the foreign governments can also print their currency just like we do with the dollar. Do you guys feel that precious metals is a safer place to put your money than foreign currencies when the world recession begins? What do you guys think about Silver? Is it under valued compared to Gold?
Nude_IHB
New member
I can't speak for awgee, but fiat money is just toilet paper when the government backing it has no way to support it. So, no... I don;t think any currency will be immune to a global recession and some will suffer far more than others. In a world where currency is traded on open markets, what a dollar worth is relative to other currencies. There may come a day when $1000 in gold is only worth 325 euros rather than the ~750 it is today or it could be worth 1500 euros next year. I know that is not very helpful, but there is only so much you can do to protect the buying power of your capital. But let me offer this word of advice: if you are buying precious metals to protect yourself in case of all hell breaking loose and fiat money becoming worthless, then don't rely on some ETF or electronic vault. If worse does come to worse, the only way to truly be positive that you have something worth trading for guns, seeds, butter, and booze is to take physical possession of whatever PM you own. I like Canadian Maple Leafs and US Buffalos although there is a smal premium over the spot prices.
So, anyone want to explain why a one ounce .9999 pure American gold coin with a face value of $50.00 will cost you $932 at Monex and $1200 from the US Mint itself?
So, anyone want to explain why a one ounce .9999 pure American gold coin with a face value of $50.00 will cost you $932 at Monex and $1200 from the US Mint itself?
lawyerliz_IHB
New member
Hmmm, I still expect the mkt to go below 10,000, and we are back at 11,8 for the dow.
A few gold coins some cash money, some booze as nude says.
Some canned goods, and read Lucifer's Hammer if you want to read some sci fi
suggestions as to what imaginary people did in advance of an imaginary meteor
strike. Needles, thread, bleach, jerky. Etc.
A few gold coins some cash money, some booze as nude says.
Some canned goods, and read Lucifer's Hammer if you want to read some sci fi
suggestions as to what imaginary people did in advance of an imaginary meteor
strike. Needles, thread, bleach, jerky. Etc.
PANDA_IHB
New member
Nude said:
Nude and Awgee, I current hold a good chunk of my cash in Canadian Dollars and Euros. Do you guys recommend that I convert all of this into Gold. Foreign Cash just seems like a safer investment to me as the price does not fluctuate so much like Gold and Silver. Again, I can be completely wrong.
What's your opinion in carrying silver?
Panda
graphrix_IHB
New member
Panda,
I highly recommend you read A Random Walk Down Wall Street, by Burton Malkiel. I also recommend you read many of the other books cited in that book. Once you get through that, then we can restart the book thread from back in the day. Hopefully you will graduate to Mark Douglas, and we can all have a great discussion about trading and investing. Baby panda steps, baby steps...
I highly recommend you read A Random Walk Down Wall Street, by Burton Malkiel. I also recommend you read many of the other books cited in that book. Once you get through that, then we can restart the book thread from back in the day. Hopefully you will graduate to Mark Douglas, and we can all have a great discussion about trading and investing. Baby panda steps, baby steps...
Nude_IHB
New member
PANDA said:
Before we go any further, let's examine the underlying issues. Either you have so much money saved up that a rapid change in relative valuation of either the dollar, the euro, or the loonie is going to drastically change your net worth or you are trying to provide yourself something to use as money when the world economy collapses.
If the kind of price swings that occur in the currency exchange markets are really going to make a difference in your bottom line, then you need to get your money back into whatever currency you use where you live because you don't make enough money to be playing in that arena. If the loonie goes back to the exchange rate of 2004, you are going to lose a lot of cash. Same with the Euro. If a rapid change won't make a difference then quit worrying about it. Split up your cash equally among countries you might like to spend a few years visiting if things get wierd at home and keep it there until we get past all of this drama.
If you are trying to horde some metal to survive a sudden financial meltdown, you had better be able to fly your own plan to Geneva if you want to get your gold because you won't be able to pay for an airline ticket with funny money. If it's just a hedge against inflation, fine. But if you really think the government is going to outlaw gold ownership again then you had better have a plan to get to it, already in place and already paid for because credit cards and portraits of dead presidents may not be enough. Not to Godwin the thread, but look back at all the Swiss accounts held by German Jews prior to Hitler invading Poland; thousands of them went unclaimed because the owners COULD NOT GET to them. My gold and cash is in a safe hidden in my house with a nasty alarm and some other nearly fatal surprises for those who snoop for it. If it gets to the point that gold becomes the only money, the government won't have a chance to confiscate it because neither it nor I will be here. Call me paranoid, sure, but what good is a back-up plan when you can't execute it?
If you are just trying to avoid inflation eating away at your money, buy some TIPS from the Treasury. We have some of them, and some other investments that keep us from worrying too much. There is only so much you can prepare for, only so much you can worry about, and the truth is that if we do get to that point, we have far more important things to worry about than how rich we are. For example, when was the last time you butchered a cow, harvested corn, refined crude oil, tended to an orchard, or built a windmill? We, as a country, are so dependent on grocery stores, gas stations, electricity, and indoor plumbing that we, as human beings, are going to be in a world of hurt if that all goes away.
I can't recommend an investment strategy because I'm always wrong and I don't want my ineptitude to hurt anyone. I recommend that you write out your needs, find ways to ensure continued access to them, and then follow through with preparation so that you can execute the plan when the time comes. Visualize each step and look for possible problems and solutions to those problems. Then double check everything and hope for the best.
PANDA_IHB
New member
graphrix said:
C'mon Graph, we are not investing in the 80's or the 90's. I read this book many years ago right out of college, it is a great book for investing in the era of Peter Lynch, but it does not teach you how to invest from 2000 - 2020. The game is very different this time around.
Trooper_IHB
New member
awgee, Googling around, I found this tidbit. It appears that during the GD the Gubmint did indeed demand the return of gold coins:
QUESTION: Hello, and thanks heaps for your answer. Is it okay if I ask one more quick question? I read during the great depression that the government made all the people who had gold give it back to the government, and that they could only keep $100 worth.. Would silver therefore be better do you think, or did they make them give that back too? Thanks heaps for your time
ANSWER: It is true that US gold coin was required to be returned to the government (since it was US money and not personal possessions) and replaced with paper money. Silver was continued to be used in coins until the 1960s.
However, gold in the form of jewelry was not outlawed, and as such could not be taken by the government.
Remember, money is technically the property of the State. And as such it can be recalled, and replaced with new or different money. That is what happened to the gold coins.
So why buy gold coins with a $50.00 face value.....couldn't this happen again? Wouldn't ingots be a better choice ?
signed: Chicken Little
QUESTION: Hello, and thanks heaps for your answer. Is it okay if I ask one more quick question? I read during the great depression that the government made all the people who had gold give it back to the government, and that they could only keep $100 worth.. Would silver therefore be better do you think, or did they make them give that back too? Thanks heaps for your time
ANSWER: It is true that US gold coin was required to be returned to the government (since it was US money and not personal possessions) and replaced with paper money. Silver was continued to be used in coins until the 1960s.
However, gold in the form of jewelry was not outlawed, and as such could not be taken by the government.
Remember, money is technically the property of the State. And as such it can be recalled, and replaced with new or different money. That is what happened to the gold coins.
So why buy gold coins with a $50.00 face value.....couldn't this happen again? Wouldn't ingots be a better choice ?
signed: Chicken Little
Trooper_IHB
New member
That makes sense Nude, thx.
But these are awfully purdy...
But these are awfully purdy...
lawyerliz_IHB
New member
Upper/lower do you still think that the dow won't have a 9 handle soon?
If you are still around.
If you are still around.
Trooper_IHB
New member
Based on this info, I think Nude's suggestion to buy Canadian Maple Leaf gold coins, is a sound one.
Since there is indeed a dollar amount attached to the Golden Eagle, I'm concerned the same shenanigans might happen again.
Count me in on the camp of believers that a GD II is looming.
Since there is indeed a dollar amount attached to the Golden Eagle, I'm concerned the same shenanigans might happen again.
Count me in on the camp of believers that a GD II is looming.