morekaos_IHB
New member
morekaos said:
I know, just contemplating...along with my belly button
Gold
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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
I know, just contemplating...along with my belly button
Awgee,
It is interesting that you came up with the $1650 figure because that is exactly the value of gold when it peaked at $850 in 1980 accounting for inflation. Do you believe that gold will be $1650 before the peak, at the peak, or after the peak? Why 2011?
I know, just contemplating...along with my belly button
profette_IHB
New member
OMG, Soros has been posting on IHB, under the name awgee...
"After the financial market collapsed last fall, the Fed responded with a massive injection of liquidity and expansion of the monetary base.
Eventually, Ben Bernanke & Co. will face the challenge of having to remove that liquidity from the system. "That's a big and difficult task and probably the authorities will not be able to do it well," says legendary financier George Soros, chairman of Soros Fund Management. "That's the fear that drives people into gold."
Soros wouldn't say whether he's actively trading gold but certainly implied it's a good bet; more explicitly, he agreed with the view there's a "bubble" in Treasuries that's likely to burst sooner rather than later..."
Linky
"After the financial market collapsed last fall, the Fed responded with a massive injection of liquidity and expansion of the monetary base.
Eventually, Ben Bernanke & Co. will face the challenge of having to remove that liquidity from the system. "That's a big and difficult task and probably the authorities will not be able to do it well," says legendary financier George Soros, chairman of Soros Fund Management. "That's the fear that drives people into gold."
Soros wouldn't say whether he's actively trading gold but certainly implied it's a good bet; more explicitly, he agreed with the view there's a "bubble" in Treasuries that's likely to burst sooner rather than later..."
Linky
morekaos_IHB
New member
Covered some in the last drop. I shorted originally at 912 then again at 956. Covered some last week and may hold on to others. Still in profit on all.
graphrix_IHB
New member
Chart of the day: Gold/Dow ratio.
“Today’s chart presents the Dow divided by the price of one ounce of gold. This results in what is referred to as the Dow / gold ratio or the cost of the Dow in ounces of gold. For example, it currently takes 9.2 ounces of gold to “buy the Dow.” This is considerably less that the 44.8 ounces it took back in 1999. When priced in gold, the Dow is down 79% from its 1999 peak and the scale of the current two-month rally has not distinguished it from the many bear market rallies that have occurred over the past decade.”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/20090508.gif
“Today’s chart presents the Dow divided by the price of one ounce of gold. This results in what is referred to as the Dow / gold ratio or the cost of the Dow in ounces of gold. For example, it currently takes 9.2 ounces of gold to “buy the Dow.” This is considerably less that the 44.8 ounces it took back in 1999. When priced in gold, the Dow is down 79% from its 1999 peak and the scale of the current two-month rally has not distinguished it from the many bear market rallies that have occurred over the past decade.”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/20090508.gif
freedomCM_IHB
New member
I was just reading in the comments on CR a prediction of a $750-900 trading range for 2009. Justified by saying that industrial use was down, and that people in India had sharply cut back on personal purchases, as well as increased recycling and sales into the market by broke people.
what do you think, awgee?
what do you think, awgee?
ukyo116_IHB
New member
The underlying fundamentals for gold are still intact.
I see the following factors providing resistance to the rise in the price of gold in the short term.
1) lagging commodity prices (but this is correcting itself)
2) market consensus that we are in a deflation
3) USD index holding above 82
4) stable 10-year bond rates
The following is providing a floor to gold prices short term
1) government stimulus and bailout taking effect all around the world
2) failed auction of us treasuries and subsequent quantitative easing announcements from the US and EU
3) falling production from gold mines due to lack of credit and financing
I see the following factors providing resistance to the rise in the price of gold in the short term.
1) lagging commodity prices (but this is correcting itself)
2) market consensus that we are in a deflation
3) USD index holding above 82
4) stable 10-year bond rates
The following is providing a floor to gold prices short term
1) government stimulus and bailout taking effect all around the world
2) failed auction of us treasuries and subsequent quantitative easing announcements from the US and EU
3) falling production from gold mines due to lack of credit and financing
PANDA_IHB
New member
freedomCM said:
Awgee,
It is interesting that you came up with the $1650 figure because that is exactly the value of gold when it peaked at $850 in 1980 accounting for inflation. Do you believe that gold will be $1650 before the peak, at the peak, or after the peak? Why 2011?
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Can all the currencies in the world devalue at the same time if they are all printing money??? Kinda like asking the whole tree falling in the worlds question...awgee said:
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Tell me that mortgage rates have also gone up since the 10-year Bond is up about 100bps from the low. Btw, when'd you become a moderator? Does this mean you can ban me?awgee said:
awgee_IHB
New member
From Pravda,
The US dollar is not Russia’s basic reserve currency anymore. The euro-based share of reserve assets of Russia’s Central Bank increased to the level of 47.5 percent as of January 1, 2009 and exceeded the investments in dollar assets, which made up 41.5 percent, The Vedomosti newspaper wrote.
The US dollar is not Russia’s basic reserve currency anymore. The euro-based share of reserve assets of Russia’s Central Bank increased to the level of 47.5 percent as of January 1, 2009 and exceeded the investments in dollar assets, which made up 41.5 percent, The Vedomosti newspaper wrote.
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
I have a funny feeling that the Fed has moved their focus on buying Fannie/Freddie MBS bonds to keep mortgage rates low because I don't think rates have moved up 1%+ since the 10-year was around 2.50%. Where are those 5.50% mortgage rates?
irvine_grad_IHB
New member
Something interesting from rosie's morning report.
KEEP AN EYE ON THE U.S. DOLLAR:
IT IS BASIS POINTS AWAY FROM SEEING THE 50-DAY M.A. (83.8) CROSS BELOW THE 200-DAY M.A. (83.6). THE ‘SPOT’ INDEX IS 79.9. IN THE EVENT OF THE ‘CROSSOVER’, WHICH LAST OCCURRED THREE YEARS AGO, THE COMMODITY COMPLEX AND PRECIOUS METALS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE AN EVEN LARGER PUSH TO THE UPSIDE.
thoughts?
KEEP AN EYE ON THE U.S. DOLLAR:
IT IS BASIS POINTS AWAY FROM SEEING THE 50-DAY M.A. (83.8) CROSS BELOW THE 200-DAY M.A. (83.6). THE ‘SPOT’ INDEX IS 79.9. IN THE EVENT OF THE ‘CROSSOVER’, WHICH LAST OCCURRED THREE YEARS AGO, THE COMMODITY COMPLEX AND PRECIOUS METALS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE AN EVEN LARGER PUSH TO THE UPSIDE.
thoughts?
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
No wonder OIL is heading north...it's just an anti-dollar play.awgee said: