Future prospect from a real estate guru :)

[matt138_IHB]

I just received an email from Altera and the intro line states, "It's more about who you know than what you know."

That's about right.

 

[matt138_IHB]

Not buying a primary, but throw the investment idea around daily. Fourplex prices are getting there, but vacancy ratios worry me. Further short term decline in RE will be dwarfed by long term decline in the dollar. Try holding a $1M Deutsche mark in your hands - it might be a better idea to own stuff than not - I guess it doesn't have to be RE, but the gov has a vested interest in keeping RE prices up and not so much with other tangible assets.

I was speaking with a german guy and he said his grandfather told him that he knew Germany was in trouble when the trade deficit became a surplus. Over here, it's high fives and chest butts all around when the trade deficit shrinks.

If you held a bunch of foreign bonds/bills/notes in a specific country and they were in bad shape economically and monkeying around with their money, what the hell would you do?

To phrase is as an SAT question:

IHB is to purchasing RE as: A.) foreigners are to selling US treasuries.

We use certain indicators as do they.

Thing is, this is a truly global recession. Almost every country is in trouble, many as bad or worse than America. The overbuilding in Spain, for example, was insane. The entire country of Iceland is basically bankrupt due to their banks making bad loans to people in the UK. Much of Eastern Europe is in trouble. Any country that exports a lot to the US (China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, all of Southeast Asia) gets our problems by proxy. (Normally, contrary to your German friend, a trade surplus is a good thing.)

There are no safe harbors out there.

There are safe harbors - hard assets.

 

[Geotpf_IHB]

Not buying a primary, but throw the investment idea around daily. Fourplex prices are getting there, but vacancy ratios worry me. Further short term decline in RE will be dwarfed by long term decline in the dollar. Try holding a $1M Deutsche mark in your hands - it might be a better idea to own stuff than not - I guess it doesn't have to be RE, but the gov has a vested interest in keeping RE prices up and not so much with other tangible assets.

I was speaking with a german guy and he said his grandfather told him that he knew Germany was in trouble when the trade deficit became a surplus. Over here, it's high fives and chest butts all around when the trade deficit shrinks.

If you held a bunch of foreign bonds/bills/notes in a specific country and they were in bad shape economically and monkeying around with their money, what the hell would you do?

To phrase is as an SAT question:

IHB is to purchasing RE as: A.) foreigners are to selling US treasuries.

We use certain indicators as do they.

Thing is, this is a truly global recession. Almost every country is in trouble, many as bad or worse than America. The overbuilding in Spain, for example, was insane. The entire country of Iceland is basically bankrupt due to their banks making bad loans to people in the UK. Much of Eastern Europe is in trouble. Any country that exports a lot to the US (China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, all of Southeast Asia) gets our problems by proxy. (Normally, contrary to your German friend, a trade surplus is a good thing.)

There are no safe harbors out there.

There are safe harbors - hard assets.

Like real estate?

 

[awgee_IHB]

Not buying a primary, but throw the investment idea around daily. Fourplex prices are getting there, but vacancy ratios worry me. Further short term decline in RE will be dwarfed by long term decline in the dollar. Try holding a $1M Deutsche mark in your hands - it might be a better idea to own stuff than not - I guess it doesn't have to be RE, but the gov has a vested interest in keeping RE prices up and not so much with other tangible assets.

I was speaking with a german guy and he said his grandfather told him that he knew Germany was in trouble when the trade deficit became a surplus. Over here, it's high fives and chest butts all around when the trade deficit shrinks.

If you held a bunch of foreign bonds/bills/notes in a specific country and they were in bad shape economically and monkeying around with their money, what the hell would you do?

To phrase is as an SAT question:

IHB is to purchasing RE as: A.) foreigners are to selling US treasuries.

We use certain indicators as do they.

Thing is, this is a truly global recession. Almost every country is in trouble, many as bad or worse than America. The overbuilding in Spain, for example, was insane. The entire country of Iceland is basically bankrupt due to their banks making bad loans to people in the UK. Much of Eastern Europe is in trouble. Any country that exports a lot to the US (China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, all of Southeast Asia) gets our problems by proxy. (Normally, contrary to your German friend, a trade surplus is a good thing.)

There are no safe harbors out there.

There are safe harbors - hard assets.

Like real estate?

Actually yes, if you own it outright. Land rarely loses it's intrinsic value.

 

[usctrojanman29_IHB]

Not buying a primary, but throw the investment idea around daily. Fourplex prices are getting there, but vacancy ratios worry me. Further short term decline in RE will be dwarfed by long term decline in the dollar. Try holding a $1M Deutsche mark in your hands - it might be a better idea to own stuff than not - I guess it doesn't have to be RE, but the gov has a vested interest in keeping RE prices up and not so much with other tangible assets.

I was speaking with a german guy and he said his grandfather told him that he knew Germany was in trouble when the trade deficit became a surplus. Over here, it's high fives and chest butts all around when the trade deficit shrinks.

If you held a bunch of foreign bonds/bills/notes in a specific country and they were in bad shape economically and monkeying around with their money, what the hell would you do?

To phrase is as an SAT question:

IHB is to purchasing RE as: A.) foreigners are to selling US treasuries.

We use certain indicators as do they.

Thing is, this is a truly global recession. Almost every country is in trouble, many as bad or worse than America. The overbuilding in Spain, for example, was insane. The entire country of Iceland is basically bankrupt due to their banks making bad loans to people in the UK. Much of Eastern Europe is in trouble. Any country that exports a lot to the US (China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, all of Southeast Asia) gets our problems by proxy. (Normally, contrary to your German friend, a trade surplus is a good thing.)

There are no safe harbors out there.

There are safe harbors - hard assets.

Like real estate?

Actually yes, if you own it outright. Land rarely loses it's intrinsic value.

Tell that to the debt-free homeowners in the Inland Empire. Or a bank/developers holding onto improved land out there. haha

 

[IrvineRenter_IHB]

Actually yes, if you own it outright. Land rarely loses it's intrinsic value.

It can certainly lose its economic value. Right now, raw land has a negative development value in Riverside County. The only deals I know of are people land banking for a turnaround 7-10 years from now.

In fact, with houses selling at less than construction costs, even improved lots have no current development value.

 

[matt138_IHB]

Sure. Buy for cash flow and hold. You can buy outright and get a 6% return. If rents drop 10% further - return drops to 5.5%. I don't see rents falling much further than 10% but it is entirely possible. The gov is working real hard to shrink the amount they owe (not actually pay down debt but effectively reduce it through inflation) - might as well load up on debt (within reason) - if you cant beat em join em/

It's hard to realize the magnitude and effect of inflation because it is silent and slow moving to the point of seeming nonexistant. It is our greatest enemy.

 

[awgee_IHB]

Not buying a primary, but throw the investment idea around daily. Fourplex prices are getting there, but vacancy ratios worry me. Further short term decline in RE will be dwarfed by long term decline in the dollar. Try holding a $1M Deutsche mark in your hands - it might be a better idea to own stuff than not - I guess it doesn't have to be RE, but the gov has a vested interest in keeping RE prices up and not so much with other tangible assets.

I was speaking with a german guy and he said his grandfather told him that he knew Germany was in trouble when the trade deficit became a surplus. Over here, it's high fives and chest butts all around when the trade deficit shrinks.

If you held a bunch of foreign bonds/bills/notes in a specific country and they were in bad shape economically and monkeying around with their money, what the hell would you do?

To phrase is as an SAT question:

IHB is to purchasing RE as: A.) foreigners are to selling US treasuries.

We use certain indicators as do they.

Thing is, this is a truly global recession. Almost every country is in trouble, many as bad or worse than America. The overbuilding in Spain, for example, was insane. The entire country of Iceland is basically bankrupt due to their banks making bad loans to people in the UK. Much of Eastern Europe is in trouble. Any country that exports a lot to the US (China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, all of Southeast Asia) gets our problems by proxy. (Normally, contrary to your German friend, a trade surplus is a good thing.)

There are no safe harbors out there.

There are safe harbors - hard assets.

Like real estate?

Actually yes, if you own it outright. Land rarely loses it's intrinsic value.

Tell that to the debt-free homeowners in the Inland Empire. Or a bank/developers holding onto improved land out there. haha

Didn't I say intrinsic? Intrinsic would not be monetary. Intrinsic would be the shelter value or the ability to farm or a place to run a business from or ...

During a time of currency volatility, hard assets, including real estate can become very valuable, even if not in currency terms. They are valued for their intrinsic value.

 

[awgee_IHB]

Actually yes, if you own it outright. Land rarely loses it's intrinsic value.

It can certainly lose its economic value. Right now, raw land has a negative development value in Riverside County. The only deals I know of are people land banking for a turnaround 7-10 years from now.

In fact, with houses selling at less than construction costs, even improved lots have no current development value.

Yes, it can and certainly will lose it's monetary value.

 

[Mcdonna1980_IHB]

Does anyone know the history of when IE land values lost economic value like this last? One of my great uncles bought up the majority of raw land in Corona in a bad downturn. I can't remember when he acquired it. I believe he started developing it in the 60's or 70's. He died with this many 000,000,000 zeros to his name, though. Oh how I wish he was here to teach me to do the same.

 

[graphrix_IHB]

Does anyone know the history of when IE land values lost economic value like this last? One of my great uncles bought up the majority of raw land in Corona in a bad downturn. I can't remember when he acquired it. I believe he started developing it in the 60's or 70's. He died with this many 000,000,000 zeros to his name, though. Oh how I wish he was here to teach me to do the same.

There was a land bust in the 50s after the overbuild from the troops returning from home. It happened in the outlying areas of the job centers. Why buy in Corona, when you could buy in OC for the same price? My grandfather got out before that land bust in the valley. I, like you, wish I knew more details about it. Your great uncle scooped up the land spec deals that my grandpa sold to the failed specuflippers. I really wish I knew more, because there is some story about Richard Nixon's brother screwing over my grandfather. My family always voted republican until Richard ran for prez. See, cool story in which I wish I knew the details.

 

[OCCOBRA_IHB]

Not buying a primary, but throw the investment idea around daily. Fourplex prices are getting there, but vacancy ratios worry me. Further short term decline in RE will be dwarfed by long term decline in the dollar. Try holding a $1M Deutsche mark in your hands - it might be a better idea to own stuff than not - I guess it doesn't have to be RE, but the gov has a vested interest in keeping RE prices up and not so much with other tangible assets.

I was speaking with a german guy and he said his grandfather told him that he knew Germany was in trouble when the trade deficit became a surplus. Over here, it's high fives and chest butts all around when the trade deficit shrinks.

If you held a bunch of foreign bonds/bills/notes in a specific country and they were in bad shape economically and monkeying around with their money, what the hell would you do?

To phrase is as an SAT question:

IHB is to purchasing RE as: A.) foreigners are to selling US treasuries.

We use certain indicators as do they.

Thing is, this is a truly global recession. Almost every country is in trouble, many as bad or worse than America. The overbuilding in Spain, for example, was insane. The entire country of Iceland is basically bankrupt due to their banks making bad loans to people in the UK. Much of Eastern Europe is in trouble. Any country that exports a lot to the US (China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, all of Southeast Asia) gets our problems by proxy. (Normally, contrary to your German friend, a trade surplus is a good thing.)

There are no safe harbors out there.

There are safe harbors - hard assets.

Like real estate?

Actually yes, if you own it outright. Land rarely loses it's intrinsic value.

Tell that to the debt-free homeowners in the Inland Empire. Or a bank/developers holding onto improved land out there. haha

And with one in 6 homes in Riverside and San Berdo that are over 90 days late on thier mortgages, the land and home values will continue to feed on itself downward as the whole area circles the drain. I think we are far over due on investing in the hard assets of Beanie Babies...

 

[awgee_IHB]

Not buying a primary, but throw the investment idea around daily. Fourplex prices are getting there, but vacancy ratios worry me. Further short term decline in RE will be dwarfed by long term decline in the dollar. Try holding a $1M Deutsche mark in your hands - it might be a better idea to own stuff than not - I guess it doesn't have to be RE, but the gov has a vested interest in keeping RE prices up and not so much with other tangible assets.

I was speaking with a german guy and he said his grandfather told him that he knew Germany was in trouble when the trade deficit became a surplus. Over here, it's high fives and chest butts all around when the trade deficit shrinks.

If you held a bunch of foreign bonds/bills/notes in a specific country and they were in bad shape economically and monkeying around with their money, what the hell would you do?

To phrase is as an SAT question:

IHB is to purchasing RE as: A.) foreigners are to selling US treasuries.

We use certain indicators as do they.

Thing is, this is a truly global recession. Almost every country is in trouble, many as bad or worse than America. The overbuilding in Spain, for example, was insane. The entire country of Iceland is basically bankrupt due to their banks making bad loans to people in the UK. Much of Eastern Europe is in trouble. Any country that exports a lot to the US (China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, all of Southeast Asia) gets our problems by proxy. (Normally, contrary to your German friend, a trade surplus is a good thing.)

There are no safe harbors out there.

There are safe harbors - hard assets.

Like real estate?

Actually yes, if you own it outright. Land rarely loses it's intrinsic value.

Tell that to the debt-free homeowners in the Inland Empire. Or a bank/developers holding onto improved land out there. haha

And with one in 6 homes in Riverside and San Berdo that are over 90 days late on thier mortgages, the land and home values will continue to feed on itself downward as the whole area circles the drain. I think we are far over due on investing in the hard assets of Beanie Babies...

Does anyone know the difference between intrinsic value and monetary value?

 

[no_vaseline_IHB]

Does anyone know the difference between intrinsic value and monetary value?

I do. Example.

I have a 1996 Jeep Cherokee that is worth about $3000. To replace it means, well, a new car and I don't want to pay for one. And I need a car about once a week to keep my job.

Monitary value of 1996 Jeep = $3000

Intrinsic value of 1996 Jeep = I get to keep my business open

How'd I do?

 

[awgee_IHB]

Does anyone know the difference between intrinsic value and monetary value?

I do. Example.

I have a 1996 Jeep Cherokee that is worth about $3000. To replace it means, well, a new car and I don't want to pay for one. And I need a car about once a week to keep my job.

Monitary value of 1996 Jeep = $3000

Intrinsic value of 1996 Jeep = I get to keep my business open

How'd I do?

Pretty darn good.

Intrinsic value of 1996 Jeep = transportation

 

[no_vaseline_IHB]

I hate features and love benefits.

 

[matt138_IHB]

Altera / Thomas flawed logic / failed economics update:

"Buyers should remember that interest rates are still at very low levels and that there is not going to be a lot more depreciation in the lower ranges. Higher rates are very likely to follow any sense of stabilization in the economy or if inflation gets out of hand. As rates rise, affordability drops. This fact is often ignored in the home buying process. We started off this decade with rates at 8%. Even if values dropped an additional 15%, at an 8% interest rate the payment would actually be more than purchasing at today’s values and interest rate."

 

[Soylent Green Is People_IHB]

To paraphrase:

"Witness the power of this fully operational battle sta...kool-aid dispenser"

"Welcome to the Sellers’ Market! Yes I know that is hard for many to believe and it certainly doesn’t “feel” like a Sellers’ market if you purchased your home this century.

But here are the facts. As of Aug 20, there were 3,506 new escrows opened in Orange County within the last 30 days - more than 100 a day, 7 days a week! On Aug 20, there were only 8,531 places for sale that did not have an accepted offer. That is the one of the lowest number of residences for sale this year! And, it is only a 2.43 month supply! Five months is considered equilibrium. Less than five is a Sellers’ market; one or two months is an extreme Sellers’ market. I took an Aliso Viejo Listing and sold it in 6 days, at full price! And we sold it Higher than the previous, highest comp. And yes, it did appraise! That Sale will close next week.

If you want to see the bottom of the OC Real Estate Market, use your rear view mirror. It is behind you...

Orange Co Median Price up 12% over the last 5 months!

Median Price for all residences sold in Orange Co.

February 2009 - $375,000

March 2009 - $385,000

April 2009 - $380,000

May 2009 - $410,000

June 2009 - $418,000

July 2009 - $420,000

This is the best time to sell your Home within the last 18 months. Will you get your "old" price? No. But you can sell it quickly, as long as you're listing at $750,000 or below. Buyers need to be very aware of interest rates. Just 1% in interest rate movement wipes out 10% in price reduction. If interest rates go up 1%, your purchasing power just dropped by 10%. Let us say you were pre-qualified to purchase up to $440,000 at 5.125%. And interest rates go to 6.000%. Now you are only qualified to buy $402,000! Today's standard FHA rate is 5.500%.

Where is this "next wave of foreclosures"? I keep hearing the rumor that it is coming. All I know is if we keep opening up 3000+ new escrows in Orange County every month, that "wave" will break long before it hits the shore. As of Aug 20, there were only 319 foreclosed residences for sale in all of Orange County, out of 8,531 total homes for sale.

Realtor name withheld.

OK - some of the points about rates and qualifying work, but the rest is just a sticky mess. Top that one!

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People.

 

[awgee_IHB]

To paraphrase:

"Witness the power of this fully operational battle sta...kool-aid dispenser"

"Welcome to the Sellers’ Market! Yes I know that is hard for many to believe and it certainly doesn’t “feel” like a Sellers’ market if you purchased your home this century.

But here are the facts. As of Aug 20, there were 3,506 new escrows opened in Orange County within the last 30 days - more than 100 a day, 7 days a week! On Aug 20, there were only 8,531 places for sale that did not have an accepted offer. That is the one of the lowest number of residences for sale this year! And, it is only a 2.43 month supply! Five months is considered equilibrium. Less than five is a Sellers’ market; one or two months is an extreme Sellers’ market. I took an Aliso Viejo Listing and sold it in 6 days, at full price! And we sold it Higher than the previous, highest comp. And yes, it did appraise! That Sale will close next week.

If you want to see the bottom of the OC Real Estate Market, use your rear view mirror. It is behind you...

Orange Co Median Price up 12% over the last 5 months!

Median Price for all residences sold in Orange Co.

February 2009 - $375,000

March 2009 - $385,000

April 2009 - $380,000

May 2009 - $410,000

June 2009 - $418,000

July 2009 - $420,000

This is the best time to sell your Home within the last 18 months. Will you get your "old" price? No. But you can sell it quickly, as long as you're listing at $750,000 or below. Buyers need to be very aware of interest rates. Just 1% in interest rate movement wipes out 10% in price reduction. If interest rates go up 1%, your purchasing power just dropped by 10%. Let us say you were pre-qualified to purchase up to $440,000 at 5.125%. And interest rates go to 6.000%. Now you are only qualified to buy $402,000! Today's standard FHA rate is 5.500%.

Where is this "next wave of foreclosures"? I keep hearing the rumor that it is coming. All I know is if we keep opening up 3000+ new escrows in Orange County every month, that "wave" will break long before it hits the shore. As of Aug 20, there were only 319 foreclosed residences for sale in all of Orange County, out of 8,531 total homes for sale.

Realtor name withheld.

OK - some of the points about rates and qualifying work, but the rest is just a sticky mess. Top that one!

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People.

Why are you witholding the name of the realtor. He/she put themselves out there and I assume with their name. What is the harm in letting them own their words?

 

[matt138_IHB]

To paraphrase:

"Witness the power of this fully operational battle sta...kool-aid dispenser"

"Welcome to the Sellers’ Market! Yes I know that is hard for many to believe and it certainly doesn’t “feel” like a Sellers’ market if you purchased your home this century.

But here are the facts. As of Aug 20, there were 3,506 new escrows opened in Orange County within the last 30 days - more than 100 a day, 7 days a week! On Aug 20, there were only 8,531 places for sale that did not have an accepted offer. That is the one of the lowest number of residences for sale this year! And, it is only a 2.43 month supply! Five months is considered equilibrium. Less than five is a Sellers’ market; one or two months is an extreme Sellers’ market. I took an Aliso Viejo Listing and sold it in 6 days, at full price! And we sold it Higher than the previous, highest comp. And yes, it did appraise! That Sale will close next week.

If you want to see the bottom of the OC Real Estate Market, use your rear view mirror. It is behind you...

Orange Co Median Price up 12% over the last 5 months!

Median Price for all residences sold in Orange Co.

February 2009 - $375,000

March 2009 - $385,000

April 2009 - $380,000

May 2009 - $410,000

June 2009 - $418,000

July 2009 - $420,000

This is the best time to sell your Home within the last 18 months. Will you get your "old" price? No. But you can sell it quickly, as long as you're listing at $750,000 or below. Buyers need to be very aware of interest rates. Just 1% in interest rate movement wipes out 10% in price reduction. If interest rates go up 1%, your purchasing power just dropped by 10%. Let us say you were pre-qualified to purchase up to $440,000 at 5.125%. And interest rates go to 6.000%. Now you are only qualified to buy $402,000! Today's standard FHA rate is 5.500%.

Where is this "next wave of foreclosures"? I keep hearing the rumor that it is coming. All I know is if we keep opening up 3000+ new escrows in Orange County every month, that "wave" will break long before it hits the shore. As of Aug 20, there were only 319 foreclosed residences for sale in all of Orange County, out of 8,531 total homes for sale.

Realtor name withheld.

OK - some of the points about rates and qualifying work, but the rest is just a sticky mess. Top that one!

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People.

Why are you witholding the name of the realtor. He/she put themselves out there and I assume with their name. What is the harm in letting them own their words?

C'mon. Put the name out there! Think of all the free advertising he/she will get! 6 months/ 1 year from now we can look back and say, "man, he/she was right!"